Interdecadal Changes Research Articles

Singular value decomposition (SVD) based correlation analysis of climatic factors and extreme precipitation in Hunan Province, China, during 1960–2009

AbstractA small change in the mean climate may lead to a dramatic change in the frequency and intensity of extreme climate events. In this study, the relationship between mean temperature (MT) and extreme precipitation and the influence from large-scale circulation were investigated in Hunan Province. The correlation between MT and the frequency of extreme precipitation events in different seasons (spring, summer, and autumn) and time periods (1960–2009) was used to obtain pairs of spatial patterns by the singular value decomposition method. The temporal expansion series displayed a consistent trend of temperature and extreme precipitation, and a mutation was observed to occur approximately during the 1980s–1990s. Temperature exhibited a warming trend after the mutation, but the frequency of extreme precipitation events exhibited obvious spatio-temporal variations. The causes of seasonal differences in the frequency of extreme precipitation events were determined by comparing interdecadal changes in three atmospheric circulation factors (850 hPa winds, the entire layer of vapor transportation fluxes and vapor flux divergence) before and after the mutation was revealed.

Combining MaxEnt model and landscape pattern theory for analyzing interdecadal variation of sugarcane climate suitability in Guangxi, China

Guangxi is the primary producer of sugarcane in China and provides a highly suitable habitat for sugarcane growth. However, its distribution range has changed significantly in recent years due to climate change as well as human factors. Without extensive knowledge of the changing trends in suitable sugarcane planting areas, efforts to improve its productivity in Guangxi may be insufficient. In this study, the interdecadal change in sugarcane distribution in Guangxi in response to climate change from 1960 to 2019 was estimated using the MaxEnt model and the landscape pattern of land use in the suitable sugarcane area was analyzed. In addition, we discuss the effects of global warming on sugarcane production in the sustainable development of the sugar industry in Guangxi. Our results indicate: (1) from 1960 to 2019, approximately 65% of Guangxi Province could grow sugarcane. Chongzuo City, Nanning City and Parts of Baise City, are highly suitable areas, and unsuitable areas are mainly concentrated in the north. In general, sugarcane climate suitability extended further in low-altitude areas, and then extended to high- altitude areas. However, from the 2000s to the 2010s, climate suitability showed a decreasing trend, decreasing from 16.036 × 106 ha to 15.4985 × 106 ha (2) The order of land use area in the suitable sugarcane climate range was as follows: woodland > cropland > grassland > construction land > water. With the increase in climate suitability, the distribution of cultivated land expanded. From 1980 to 2005, cropland in suitable areas showed a fragmentation trend. By 2010, the cropland patches disappeared after fragmentation. (3) Due to landscape constraints, infertile soil, and labor costs, the sugar industry faces various challenges. The evaluation of climate suitability could provide a theoretical reference for a planting layout of sugarcane, and landscape pattern analysis of suitable sugarcane climate areas is conducive to the integration of small pieces of land into large ones, making mechanization possible. Overall, strict layout and management measures are required in sugarcane planting areas.

Relationship between rainfall and streamflow in the La Plata Basin: annual cycles, interdecadal and multidecadal variability

The aim of this study is to understand the interaction between rainfall and streamflow variability in the La Plata basin (LPB) along a wide range of timescales. LPB is divided in six sub-basins associated to the main rivers (Paraguay, Paraná, Uruguay and Iguazú). The amplification of the streamflow response is addressed in order to evaluate to what extent river discharges variability can be explained by precipitation fluctuations. Mean annual cycles corresponding to 1931-2010 period and to each of the decades comprising it are analyzed. Streamflow interdecadal changes are observed in most of the gauging stations. In addition, an 11-year moving-average filter is applied to the normalized annual time series. Results exhibit a considerable higher percentage of explained variance in the streamflow filtered series, highlighting the predominance of low frequency variability present in these compared to those of precipitation. Consistently, river discharges show higher spectral density over decadal/interdecadal frequencies compared to precipitation analysis. A simple statistical approach to advance in the understanding of the complex rainfall-streamflow physical relationship is addressed with promising results: streamflow spectrums are derived directly from the precipitation spectrum, transformed by a 'basin' operator, characteristic of the basin itself. It is assumed that watersheds acts on precipitation as spatio-temporal integrators operating as low-pass filters, like a moving average. Streamflow power spectrums are simulated assuming that the underlying process is an autoregressive moving average (ARMA). Considering as the only input the sub-basin areal-averaged precipitation timeseries, results show that simulated streamflow spectrums fits effectively the observations at the sub-basin scale.

Distinct Interdecadal Change Contrasts Between Summer and Autumn in Latitude‐Longitude Covariability of Northwest Pacific Typhoon Genesis Locations

AbstractThis study investigates seasonality of interdecadal changes in latitude‐longitude covariability of the Northwest Pacific (WNP)‐mean tropical cyclogenesis location (TCGL). It is found that the latitude‐longitude covariability in WNP‐mean TCGL of typhoons has experienced seasonally distinct interdecadal shifts since 1998, weakening in summer and strengthening in autumn. Since significant westward shift of WNP‐mean TCGL exists in both summer and autumn, but robust poleward shift is only detected in autumn. The linchpin of such seasonal difference is the subtropical WNP sea‐surface temperature (SST) warming in the key region of 125°–140°E, 15°–30°N, where numbers of typhoons increase in autumn but not in summer. Two main factors are responsible for the SST warming in the key region: the interdecadal trend of local SST and the Central Pacific La Niña‐teleconnected warming. However, neither condition occurs in summer, highlighting the importance of seasonal difference in climatological background when interpreting climatic changes in typhoons.

Interdecadal changes in the interannual variability of the summer temperature over Northeast Asia

AbstractThis study reveals the interdecadal changes in the interannual variability of the summer temperature over Northeast Asia (NEA), which presents an enhancement around the early 1990s and a reduction after the mid-2000s. The stronger NEA temperature variability after the early 1990s is favored by the enhanced influence of the Pacific–Japan (PJ) teleconnection, which is remotely modulated by the southeastern tropical Indian Ocean (SETIO). After the early 1990s, the mean state over the SETIO presents relatively warmer SST and ascending motion, favoring a good relationship between the local SST and convection. Therefore, the SETIO SST could prominently influence the local convection and subsequently modulate the convection over the western North Pacific (WNP) via a cross-equatorial overturning circulation. The abnormal convection over the WNP further triggers the PJ teleconnection to influence NEA. However, these ocean–atmosphere processes disappear before the early 1990s. In this period, the mean state over the SETIO features relatively colder SST and subsiding motion, accompanied by a poor relationship between the local SST and convection. Therefore, the variability of convection over the SETIO is weak, thus the atmospheric variability over the WNP is also weakened and the PJ teleconnection presents a different distribution that could not influence NEA. The reduced variability of NEA temperature after the mid-2000s is related to the feeble influence of the PJ teleconnection and the reduced variability of the SETIO SST, which is modulated by the SST over the tropical central–eastern Pacific during the preceding winter to spring.

Impact of Autumn-Winter Tibetan Plateau Snow Cover Anomalies on the East Asian Winter Monsoon and Its Interdecadal Change

The present study investigates the impacts of autumn-winter Tibetan Plateau (TP) snow cover anomalies on the interannual variability of the East Asian winter monsoon (EAWM). It is found that the northern component of EAWM is significantly associated with October-November-December-January (ONDJ) snow cover anomalies over the eastern TP, whereas the TP snow cover changes have little impact on the southern component of EAWM. However, the relationship of the northern component of EAWM to ONDJ TP snow cover experienced an obvious change in the mid-1990s. During 1979–1998, due to the high persistence of TP snow anomalies from autumn to winter, extensive ONDJ TP snow cover anomalies have a prominent influence on atmospheric circulation over Asia and the North Pacific, with more TP snow cover followed by an enhanced Siberian high and a deepened Aleutian low in winter, resulting in stronger EAWM. During 1999–2016, TP snow cover anomalies have a weak persistence. The atmospheric circulation anomalies display a different distribution. As such, there is a weak connection between the northern component of EAWM and the TP snow cover anomalies during this period.

Interdecadal change in the relationship between boreal winter North Pacific Oscillation and Eastern Australian rainfall in the following autumn

Interdecadal change in the relationship between boreal winter North Pacific Oscillation and Eastern Australian rainfall in the following autumn

Enhanced moisture transport associated with the interdecadal change in winter precipitation over Northwest China

AbstractIn this study, the interdecadal increase in winter precipitation in northwest China (NWC) since the late 1980s and the associated moisture flux transport are investigated. The results show that an interdecadal change in moisture flux transport also occurred in the late 1980s, resulting in anomalous moisture transport convergence over NWC. The examination of boundary moisture transport shows enhanced incoming net moisture flux transport over NWC after the late 1980s. The zonal and meridional components both play a key role in the net moisture flux transport, with increased incoming transport from the western boundary dominated and followed by increased incoming transport from the southern boundary. The circulation responsible for the moisture flux transport anomalies is a Eurasian (EU)‐like teleconnection over mid‐to‐high latitudes of the Eurasian continent. The EU teleconnection pattern transformed from a positive phase to a negative phase in the late 1980s. The related anomalous cyclone over central Asia and the anomalous anticyclone over Japan result in westerly anomalies to the west of NWC and southeasterly anomalies to the east, respectively. Together, these anomalies enable an enhanced net gain of moisture transport and the anomalous moisture transport convergence over NWC. The enhanced moisture supply, strengthened upward movement and anomalous convergence result in an interdecadal increase in winter precipitation in NWC. In addition, the transition of the EU teleconnection is likely attributed to changes in the zonal mean wind. Sea surface temperature warming in the North Atlantic and northwestern Pacific regions also play a role in the change in the EU teleconnection pattern.

Inhomogeneous trends in the onset date of extreme hot days in China over the last five decades

Using a homogenized daily maximum temperature (Tmax) dataset across China, this study characterized the spatiotemporal variation of the onset date of extreme hot days in a year (i.e., FirstEHD) during 1960–2018. Inhomogeneous trends of FirstEHD over China during 1960–2018 can be found, with the advanced trend of FirstEHD over most parts in China, while a number of stations in North-Central China (NC) show the delayed trend of FirstEHD. Moreover, there exist interdecadal changes of FirstEHD trend, with a remarkable difference in the trend magnitude before and after the 1990s over South China (SC), and the sign of trend can even reverse from negative to positive after the 1990s in Xinjiang (XJ) and Yangtze River Basin (YR), and from positive to negative in NC. The overall trends of FirstEHD over NC, YR, and XJ during 1960–2018 are dominated by the trends before the 1990s, while they are dominated by the sharp advance after the 1990s over SC. It is further found that the trend of FirstEHD can generally be explained by the long-term trend in Tmax over most parts of China, but the contribution from Tmax variabilities is also non-negligible and can even account for more than 75% of the overall trend over NC. The possible factors responsible for the decadal changes in FirstEHD trends are also discussed.摘要基于1960–2018年均一化日最高气温 (Tmax) 资料, 发现中国大部分区域高温初始发生日期 (FirstEHD) 呈提前趋势, 但华北地区一些站点呈推迟趋势, 这主要由上述区域 Tmax 的长期变化趋势决定, 但Tmax 变率的影响也不可忽视. FirstEHD的变化趋势在1990s出现年代际转折, 其中新疆, 华北和长江流域在1990s前后FirstEHD发生变化, 华南地区则表现为1990s前后 FirstEHD趋势幅度的不同, 但符号保持不变; 研究表明FirstEHD趋势的年代际转折转折与大气环流年代际趋势的变化紧密相关.

Weakened Connection between East China Summer Rainfall and the East Asia-Pacific Teleconnection Pattern

The interdecadal change in the relationship between the East Asia-Pacific (EAP) teleconnection pattern and rainfall over East China during boreal summer (June–August) was investigated using observation and reanalysis datasets during 1951–2018. As proposed in a previous study, summer rainfall in the Yangtze-Huaihe River (YH-R) valley is below (above) normal when a positive (negative) EAP event occurs. Based on the close relationship with the rainfall anomalies, the EAP teleconnection pattern has been widely used in the prediction of summer rainfall variations in the YH-R valley. However, we found that the rainfall anomalies in the YH-R basin associated with the EAP pattern were weaker and less evident after the late 1980s. This finding indicates a decreased relationship between the EAP pattern and YH-R basin summer rainfall after the late 1980s, and a decrease in the quality and skill of seasonal predictions of YH-R basin summer rainfall related to the EAP pattern. This pronounced weakening in the YH-R summer rainfall-EAP pattern connection is attributed to the northeastward displacement of the Japanese action center of the EAP pattern after the late 1980s, which caused weaker anomalous vertical motion and moisture transportation over the YH-R valley. The present research reveals that the interdecadal expansion in the size of the Indo-Pacific warm pool in the late 1980s is likely responsible for the northeastward shift in the Japanese action center of the EAP teleconnection pattern by modulating anomalous convective activities and the northward propagation of the EAP pattern.

Interdecadal changes of summer precipitation dominant mode over East Asia‐Northwest Pacific around late 1990s

AbstractIn this study, we investigate the interdecadal variation characteristics of the dominant mode of summer precipitation over East Asia‐Northwest Pacific (EA‐NWP) before and after late 1990s, reveal the physical mechanism, and address its possible connection with the regional ocean warming background. Study results show that the empirical orthogonal function mode 1 (EOF1) of summer precipitation anomalies over EA‐NWP during the global ocean warming acceleration period (1979–1998) present a more significant dipole pattern between Yangtze River Basin (YRB) and tropical NWP compared with that during the global ocean warming slowdown period (1999–2012). And then we find that the anomalous dipoles of low‐level winds, geopotential height, convection, and associated wave activity fluxes over NWP significantly shift westward (eastward) and enhance (weaken) in 1979–1998 (1999–2012), which are regarded as the direct cause of the adjustment of dipole pattern between YRB and tropical NWP. Further analysis reveals that the negative sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies in the tropical NWP are prominent (not prominent), resulting in the stronger (weaker) Pacific–Japan Teleconnection over Japan and Tropics in NWP during the period 1979–1998 (1999–2012), and ultimately lead to the change of summer precipitation EOF1 in EA‐NWP. By regressing vertical velocity, outgoing longwave radiation, relative vorticity, wave activity fluxes, and precipitation onto the NWP SST in the two periods, the impacts of the SST in the NWP on the interdecadal variation of summer precipitation EOF1 in EA‐NWP are verified. Finally, the mechanism diagram of interdecadal variation of summer precipitation is given, which can be useful for short‐term precipitation prediction of East Asia.

Impacts of the Silk Road pattern on the interdecadal variations of the atmospheric heat source over the Tibetan Plateau

This study aimed to investigate the relationship between the boreal summer Silk Road Pattern (SRP) and the atmospheric heat (<Q1>) over the Tibetan Plateau (TP) region, using 5 reanalysis datasets over the period 1979–2019. Our results indicate an interdecadal change of boreal summer SRP over the Eurasian region, with a regime shift in the spatial structure at around 1997. Meanwhile, the summer <Q1> anomaly also shows a clear interdecadal increasing trend over the TP region, which is highly correlated with the interdecadal variation of the SRP. The impact of the SRP on the summer <Q1> was also investigated. The regime shift of the SRP would have generated circulation anomalies over the Lake Baikal region in 500 hPa, which would have inhibited moisture transport across the eastern boundary of the TP. Meanwhile, Indian Summer Monsoon (ISM) would also transport water vapor through the southern boundary of the TP and increased the contents of water vapor in the TP. Associated with this increase in moisture, the change of vertical motion would result in large plenty of precipitation, which released latent heat and enhanced <Q1> in summer. Thus, the regime shift in summer SRP was an important factor contributing to changes in summer <Q1> over the TP in recent decades.

Possible connection between declining Barents Sea ice and interdecadal increasing northeast China precipitation in May

AbstractNortheast China is a major agricultural production base in East Asia, and spring is the agricultural ploughing season throughout the region. The precipitation in spring is therefore significant to agricultural activity and production in the region. In this study, the interdecadal variation in spring precipitation across northeast China is investigated. In the past four decades, there has been a significant increase in spring precipitation in northeast China, and the increase in May precipitation made a dominant contribution to that increase. Further analysis indicates that the increase in May precipitation is concurrent with the decline in Arctic sea ice concentration (SIC) over the Barents Sea; both variables show an interdecadal shift around the early 2000s. Physical analysis based on observations and numerical simulations demonstrates that a decline in the Barents Sea SIC could excite a Rossby wave train propagating southeastward across the Mongolia‐Baikal region and reaching northeast China, thereby inducing a zonal anticyclone–cyclone–anticyclone teleconnection pattern over mid‐ to high‐latitude Eurasia. Under the influence of such a teleconnection pattern, significant southerlies prevail over northeast China, bringing warm and wet air to the region; in addition, the local atmospheric instability and upward motion are also increased. The changes in the moisture and dynamic conditions favour the increase in May precipitation over northeast China. Furthermore, SIC anomalies in the Barents Sea persist from late winter to spring; therefore, the SIC signal could provide signals for predictions of the interdecadal changes in May precipitation over northeast China.

Trends in Diurnal Cycle of Summertime Rainfall Over Coastal South China in the Past 135 Years: Characteristics and Possible Causes

AbstractThe interdecadal changes in the diurnal cycle of summertime rainfall over coastal South China (CSC) were analyzed for the period of 1884–2018. The results revealed that rainfall intensity has increased with the decrease of occurrence frequency during both pre‐ and mid‐summer in the past 135 years. During the most recent 40 years, occurrence frequency and intensity of nocturnal rainfall, especially extreme rainfall, have substantially increased over CSC, whereas those of daytime extreme rainfall have decreased. Different increasing rates of near‐surface temperature over land and sea are the main contributors to the distinct trends of daytime and nocturnal extreme rainfall. During daytime, a higher increasing rate of near‐surface temperature over sea results in a smaller temperature gradient along the coast, leading to a less convective atmosphere. This negates the effect of increased air‐temperature over CSC in both pre‐ and mid‐summer. In contrast, during nighttime, a higher increasing rate of near‐surface temperature over sea results in a greater temperature gradient along the coast, leading to stronger low‐level offshore winds and more convective layers over coastal waters. During pre‐summer, the stronger nocturnal low‐level offshore winds meets the warm and moist monsoonal flows, substantially enhancing nocturnal extreme rainfall along the coast. In mid‐summer, more vigorous upward motions over coastal waters of CSC enhance convective activities during nighttime, which also lead to an intensification of nocturnal rainfall. The most significant increase and intensification of extreme rainfall is observed in western CSC during pre‐summer, where the land‐sea difference of near‐surface temperature is the greatest over CSC.

Strengthening influence of El Niño on the following spring precipitation over the Indo-China Peninsula

AbstractEl Niño is a dominant source of interannual climate variability around the world. Based on the observed and reanalyzed datasets for the period of 1958-2019, this study explores the influence of El Niño on the spring precipitation over the Indo-China Peninsula (ICP). The results show that El Niño has a significant negative correlation with the following spring precipitation over the ICP. However, this climatic teleconnection of El Niño was unstable, with an obvious interdecadal strengthening since the early 1990s. During the decaying spring, the El Niño-related sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies would induce an abnormal downward motion along with an anomalous low-level anticyclone over the western North Pacific. Before the early 1990s, such El Niño-induced atmospheric circulation anomalies were located to the east of the ICP, exerting little influence on the spring ICP precipitation. In contrast, since the early 1990s, the abnormal downward motion and anomalous low-level anticyclone extended westwards covering the whole ICP, hampering local spring precipitation. This interdecadal change is owing to a relatively stronger intensity and longer duration of the El Niño-related warm SST anomalies over the tropical central Pacific in the epoch after the early 1990s (1992-2019) than in the previous decades (1958-1991). Our findings highlight a strengthening effect of El Niño on the following spring climate over the ICP since the early 1990s, which has great implications for the regional climate prediction.

Non-Stationary Effects of the Arctic Oscillation and El Niño–Southern Oscillation on January Temperatures in Korea

In recent decades, extremely cold winters have occurred repeatedly throughout the Northern Hemisphere, including the Korean Peninsula (hereafter, Korea). Typically, cold winter temperatures in Korea can be linked to the strengthening of the Siberian High (SH). Although previous studies have investigated the typical relationship between the SH and winter temperatures in Korea, this study uniquely focused on a change in the relationship, which reflects the influence of the Arctic Oscillation (AO) and El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO). A significant change in the 15-year moving correlation between the SH and the surface air temperature average in Korea (K-tas) was observed in January. The correlation changed from −0.80 during 1971–1990 to −0.16 during 1991–2010. The mean sea-level pressure pattern regressed with the temperature, and a singular value decomposition analysis that incorporated the temperature and pressure supports that the negative high correlation during 1971–1990 was largely affected by AO. This connection with AO is substantiated by empirical orthogonal function (EOF) analysis with an upper-level geopotential height at 300 hPa. In the second mode of the EOF, the temperature and pressure patterns were primarily affected by ENSO during 1991–2010. Consequently, the interdecadal change in correlation between K-tas and the SH in January can be attributed to the dominant effect of AO from 1971–1990 and of ENSO from 1991–2010. Our results suggest that the relative importance of these factors in terms of the January climate in Korea has changed on a multidecadal scale.

Interdecadal Changes in the Impact of the Philippine Sea Anticyclone on Boreal Winter Precipitation in Southwestern China

AbstractIn the last two decades, southwestern China (SWC) has experienced severe droughts, which are always accompanied by severe deficiencies in precipitation. In this study, we found that the interannual variability in boreal winter precipitation in SWC is modulated by the Philippine Sea anomalous anticyclone (PSAC). The interannual relationship between the PSAC and SWC precipitation experienced an interdecadal change around the early 1980s. The correlation between them was enhanced in the period from 1981 to 2001 (P2) compared to the period from 1961 to 1980 (P1). In P1, the moisture transported by the PSAC mainly affected eastern China, as the PSAC was located over the northern Philippine Sea, and the moisture budget of SWC was dominated by moisture transport at the western boundary. The PSAC, however, strengthened and shifted southwestward in P2, accompanied by a deepened India-Burma trough. As such, the PSAC transported moist air from the western North Pacific and the Indian Ocean into SWC through its southern boundary. Meanwhile, the stronger PSAC in P2 was accompanied by an upper-level convergence from the western North Pacific to the Bay of Bengal, which induced an upper-level divergence and ascending motion over SWC. Thus, the PSAC caused a significant increase in precipitation in P2. Stronger air-sea interactions in the western North Pacific induced by the El Niño–Southern Oscillation may be responsible for the enhancement and southwestward shift of the PSAC in P2 compared to that in P1.

Interdecadal changes in synoptic transient eddy activity over the Northeast Pacific and their role in tropospheric Arctic amplification

Arctic amplification refers to the greater surface warming of the Arctic than of other regions during recent decades. A similar phenomenon occurs in the troposphere and is termed “tropospheric Arctic amplification” (TAA). The poleward eddy heat flux and eddy moisture flux are critical to Arctic warming. In this study, we investigate the synoptic transient eddy activity over the North Pacific associated with TAA and its relationship with the subtropical jet stream, and propose the following mechanism. A poleward shift of the subtropical jet axis results in anomalies of the meridional gradient of zonal wind over the North Pacific, which drive a meridional dipole pattern of synoptic transient wave intensity over the North Pacific, referred to as the North Pacific Synoptic Transient wave intensity Dipole (NPSTD). The NPSTD index underwent an interdecadal shift in the late 1990s accompanying that of the subtropical jet stream. During the positive phase of the NPSTD index, synoptic eddy heat flux transports more heat to the Arctic Circle, and the eddy heat flux diverges, increasing Arctic temperature. This mechanism highlights the need to consider synoptic transient eddy activity over the North Pacific as the link between the mean state of the North Pacific subtropical upper jet and TAA.

Interdecadal Change in the Relationship between the Winter North Pacific Storm Track and the East Asian Winter Monsoon

AbstractBased on the daily NCEP reanalysis, the present study investigates the interdecadal change in the relationship between the winter North Pacific storm track (WNPST) and the East Asian winter monsoon (EAWM), and evaluates the WNPST–EAWM relationship in 17 CMIP6 models. The results show that the out-of-phase WNPST–EAWM relationship underwent an interdecadal change in the mid-1980s. The WNPST–EAWM relationship became less significant during period 2 (P2; 1990–2015). The atmospheric circulation anomaly related to the EAWM during period 1 (P1; 1955–80) is more robust than that during P2. The interdecadal weakening WNPST–EAWM relationship may be attributed to the interdecadal damping WNPST–EAWM interaction. The EAWM-related anomalous baroclinic energy conversion and moisture effects, including meridional and vertical eddy moisture fluxes, contribute to the significant attenuation of the WNPST during P1. The transient eddy-induced dynamic forcing and thermal forcing anomalies, as well as the barotropic process represented by the local Eliassen–Palm flux divergence associated with WNPST, can also significantly manipulate the upper-tropospheric jet during P1. However, the atmospheric circulation and interaction between the WNPST and EAWM during P2 are not as significant as those during P1. The effect of ENSO on the WNPST is significantly different before and after the mid-1980s. After the mid-1980s, the WNPST shows the characteristic of moving equatorward during El Niño events. It seems that ENSO takes over the WNPST from the EAWM after the mid-1980s. In addition, except for BCC-ESM1, CanESM5, and SAM0-UNICON, most of the CMIP6 models cannot reproduce the significant out-of-phase WNPST–EAWM relationship.

Summertime variability of Mediterranean evaporation: competing impacts from the mid latitudes teleconnections and the South Asian monsoon

Interannual variability of Mediterranean evaporation and its links to regional climate during summer are investigated based on evaporation data from the Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution dataset. An EOF (Empirical Orthogonal Function) analysis performed on the monthly means (i.e., separately for June, July, August, and September time series) revealed two leading modes of evaporation variability, characterized by the monopole (EOF-1) and zonal dipole (EOF-2) patterns. These modes explain altogether more than 60% of the total variability of Mediterranean evaporation for each month. In all summer months, the EOF-1 reflects an interdecadal change signal characterized by below normal evaporation in 1970–2000 and above normal evaporation before and after this period. This mode is associated with the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation. The EOF-2 pattern reflects interannual variations of Mediterranean evaporation that differ significantly from month to month. The reason for this difference is the changing roles of regional teleconnections, such as the summer North Atlantic Oscillation (SNAO), the Scandinavian and East Atlantic teleconnections, and the Asian monsoon. The impacts of these teleconnections on Mediterranean evaporation are highly variable both in space and time. The largest impact of the SNAO on Mediterranean evaporation is detected in early summer, but its impact weakens and disappears towards the end of the summer season. An opposite tendency is obtained with the Asian monsoon, having the strongest impact on evaporation in late summer. The study suggests that these teleconnections impact Mediterranean evaporation mostly through atmospheric dynamics (the SNAO) and thermodynamics (the Asian monsoon) in early and late summer respectively.