Interannual Climate Variability Research Articles

The Copernicus Global 1/12° Oceanic and Sea Ice GLORYS12 Reanalysis

GLORYS12 is a global eddy-resolving physical ocean and sea ice reanalysis at 1/12° horizontal resolution covering the 1993-present altimetry period, designed and implemented in the framework of the Copernicus Marine Environment Monitoring Service (CMEMS). The model component is the NEMO platform driven at the surface by atmospheric conditions from the ECMWF ERA-Interim reanalysis. Ocean observations are assimilated by means of a reduced-order Kalman filter. Along track altimeter sea level anomaly, satellite sea surface temperature and sea ice concentration, as well as in situ temperature and salinity vertical profiles are jointly assimilated. A 3D-VAR scheme provides an additional correction for the slowly-evolving large-scale biases in temperature and salinity. The performance of the reanalysis shows a clear dependency on the time-dependent in situ observation system. The general assessment of GLORYS12 highlights a level of performance at the state-of-the-art and the capacity of the system to capture the main expected climatic interannual variability signals for ocean and sea ice, the general circulation and the inter-basins exchanges. In terms of trends, GLORYS12 shows a higher than observed warming trend together with a slightly lower than observed global mean sea level rise. Comparisons made with an experiment carried out on the same platform without assimilation show the benefit of data assimilation in controlling water mass properties and sea ice cover and their low frequency variability. Moreover, GLORYS12 represents particularly well the small-scale variability of surface dynamics and compares well with independent (non-assimilated) data. Comparisons made with a twin experiment carried out at 1/4° resolution allows characterizing and quantifying the strengthened contribution of the 1/12° resolution onto the downscaled dynamics. GLORYS12 provides a reliable physical ocean state for climate variability and supports applications such as seasonal forecasts. In addition, this reanalysis has strong assets to serve regional applications and provide relevant physical conditions for applications such as marine biogeochemistry. In the near future, GLORYS12 will be maintained to be as close as possible to real time and could therefore provide relevant and continuous reference past ocean states for many operational applications.

Assessment of Water Management and Development Scenarios in the Great Ruaha Catchment, Rufiji Basin

Water supplies have been declining sharply in the Great Ruaha catchment due to socio-economic development, over-abstraction, illegal use, and seasonal and inter-annual variations in climate. Despite the current pressure on water supplies, there are plans for significant agricultural expansion as a part of the Southern Agricultural Growth Corridor in Tanzania (SAGCOT), though significant uncertainty still revolves around the availability of water in the catchment. This paper aims to assess the water management and development scenarios in the catchment within the context of the current agricultural transformations. The baseline model was set up and calibrated for the Great Ruaha River (GRR) basin to simulate the existing conditions. The purpose of the baseline model was to describe the existing situation and provide a platform upon which future development intervention scenarios can be built and their impacts compared with. The model was calibrated using the observed records at Msembe gauging station and Mtera reservoir water level. The NedborAfstromnings Model (NAM) rainfall-runoff model was used to estimate the flows for sub-catchments with poor data. Five irrigation schemes were evaluated using social, environmental, and economic criteria using multi-criteria analysis techniques to assess how interventions affected the direction of change in environmental, social, and economic performance; and measure the magnitude of that change. The results indicated that the construction of the Lugoda dam, diversion canal from Ihefu wetlands, and improvement of irrigation schemes in the sub-basin are the best development and management scenarios. These will improve water availability for the expansion of the Madibira irrigation scheme; as well as ensure water availability for the Ruaha National Park (RNP), which experiences water shortage during the dry season.

ENSO influence on corn and soybean yields as a base of an early warning system for agriculture in Córdoba, Argentina

Reducing uncertainty and productive risk increase the resilience of agricultural systems and food security of a region. While crop productivity strongly depends on weather conditions during the growing season, El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phenomenon is the main driver of global interannual climate variability and affects crop production in many regions. The ENSO, Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) and Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) impact on corn and soybean yields between 1973 and 2017 was compared in Córdoba Province, Argentina, looking for an early signal to support agricultural activity. The analysis suggests that not only ENSO signal (SOI and SST El Niño 3.4) but also PDO anomaly (PDOA) link better than IOD with productivity for both crops, as well as the Southern Oscillation Index of August and September (SOIas) is a proper yield predictor. An inverse relationship was determined between SOIas and yields anomaly, more spread territorially for soybeans since the linear functions are significant (p < 0.05) in 9 of the 12 administrative areas and, with a slightly lower significance (p < 0.1), in the remaining too. On the other hand, the low R2 values indicate little capacity to explain the yield interannual variability from the SOIas signal that for corn, has a departmental range between 2 % and 19 % and, for soybeans, slightly higher between 7 % and 24 %. While the mean difference test of yield anomaly between different ENSO phases (El Niño, La Niña and Neutral) supports the more general indifference of both extreme phases with the neutral cases, it reaches a significant character in 8 departments when the cold phase is compared with the warm. The seasonal rainfall regime has also a reduced capacity to explain productive variability. However, this information is useful to realize that both the wettest (El Niño) and the driest years (La Niña) fail to differentiate from those with normal rainfall. This confusion was verified by a combinatory frequency analysis of rainfall and productivity data related to the ENSO phases. Because ENSO allows anticipating the rainfall condition and the productive potential of the main rain-fed crops in Córdoba, Argentina, it constitutes appropriate information to reduce uncertainty and the risk level in agricultural production. Therefore, although the ENSO predictive capacity is limited and more knowledge about the influence of other climatic variability sources like PDO is needed, its incorporation into a climate monitoring protocol must conforms to the basis of an early warning system for a sustainable agriculture in the region.

Vertical structure of cloud radiative heating in the tropics: confronting the EC-Earth v3.3.1/3P model with satellite observations

Abstract. Understanding the coupling of clouds to large-scale circulation is one of the grand challenges for the global climate research community. In this context, realistically modelling the vertical structure of cloud radiative heating (CRH) and/or cooling in Earth system models is a key premise to understand this coupling. Here, we evaluate CRH in two versions of the European Community Earth System Model (EC-Earth) using retrievals derived from the combined radar and lidar data from the CloudSat and Cloud-Aerosol Lidar and Infrared Pathfinder Satellite Observation (CALIPSO) satellites. One model version is also used with two different horizontal resolutions. Our study evaluates large-scale intraseasonal variability in the vertical structure of CRH and cloud properties and investigates the changes in CRH during different phases of the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO), a process that dominates the interannual climate variability in the tropics. EC-Earth generally captures both the intraseasonal and meridional pattern of variability in CRH over the convectively active and stratocumulus regions and the CRH during the positive and negative phases of ENSO. However, two key differences between model simulations and satellite retrievals emerge. First, the magnitude of CRH, in the upper troposphere, over the convectively active zones is up to twice as large in the models compared to the satellite data. Further dissection of net CRH into its shortwave and longwave components reveals noticeable differences in their vertical structure. The shortwave component of the radiative heating is overestimated by all model versions in the lowermost troposphere and underestimated in the middle troposphere. These over- and underestimates of shortwave heating are partly compensated by an overestimate of longwave cooling in the lowermost troposphere and heating in the middle troposphere. The biases in CRH can be traced back to disagreement in cloud amount and cloud water content. There is no noticeable improvement of CRH by increasing the horizontal resolution in the model alone. Our findings highlight the importance of evaluating models with satellite observations that resolve the vertical structure of clouds and cloud properties.

Quantification of climate-induced interannual variability in residential U.S. electricity demand

We assess the sensitivity of residential electricity demand in 48 U S. states to seasonal climate variations and structural changes pertaining to state-level household electricity demand. The main objective is to quantify the effects of seasonal climate variability on residential electricity demand variability during the winter and summer seasons. We use state-level monthly demographic, energy, and climate data from 2005 to 2017 in a linear regression model and find that interannual climate variability explains a significant share of seasonal household electricity demand variation: in 42 states, more than 70% and 50% of demand variability in summer and winter, respectively, is driven by climate. Our work suggests the need for new datasets to quantify unexplained variance in the winter and summer electricity demand. Findings from this study are critical to developing seasonal electricity demand forecasts, which can aid power system operation and management, particularly in a future with greater electrification of end-use demands.

Hotter Drought Escalates Tree Cover Declines in Blue Oak Woodlands of California

California has, in recent years, become a hotspot of interannual climatic variability, recording devastating climate-related disturbances with severe effects on tree resources. Understanding the patterns of tree cover change associated with these events is vital for developing strategies to sustain critical habitats of endemic and threatened vegetation communities. We assessed patterns of tree cover change, especially the effects of the 2012–2016 drought within the distribution range of blue oak (Quercus douglasii), an endemic tree species to California with a narrow geographic extent. We utilized multiple, annual land-cover and land-surface change products from the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) Land Change Monitoring, Assessment and Projection (LCMAP) project along with climate and wildfire datasets to monitor changes in tree cover state and condition and examine their relationships with interannual climate variability between 1985 and 2016. Here, we refer to a change in tree cover class without a land-cover change to another class as “conditional change.” The unusual drought of 2012–2016, accompanied by anomalously high temperatures and vapor pressure deficit, was associated with exceptional spikes in the amount of both fire and non-fire induced tree cover loss and tree cover conditional change, especially in 2015 and 2016. Approximately 1,266 km2 of tree cover loss and 617 km2 of tree cover conditional change were recorded during that drought. Tree cover loss through medium to high severity fires was especially large in exceptionally dry and hot years. Our study demonstrates the usefulness of the LCMAP products for monitoring the effects of climatic extremes and disturbance events on both thematic and conditional land-cover change over a multi-decadal period. Our results signify that blue oak woodlands may be vulnerable to extreme climate events and changing wildfire regimes. Here, we present early evidence that frequent droughts associated with climate warming may continue to affect tree cover in this region, while drought interaction with wildfires and the resulting feedbacks may have substantial influence as well. Consequently, efforts to conserve the blue oak woodlands, and potentially other vegetation communities in the Western United States, may benefit from consideration of climate risks as well as the potential for climate-fire and vegetation feedbacks.

Quantifying the spatiotemporal dynamics of recharge in a composite Great Lakes watershed using a high-resolution hydrology model and multi-source data

Understanding the timing, location and rates of recharge is important for sustainable groundwater management and effective management of groundwater-dependent ecosystems. This paper explores the spatiotemporal distributions of large- and small-recharge events in a composite watershed in the Great Lakes region and examines the impacts of climate, land use/land cover, soils, and topography on simulated recharge. Novel aspects of the work include recharge estimation using an integrated hydrologic model and constraining the model using field observations of baseflows in both perennial and intermittent streams in the region as well as the United States Geological Survey (USGS) streamflows, groundwater heads, and satellite-based evapotranspiration (ET) products. Simulated high (low) recharge values were associated with high (low) elevations and regions of low (high) ET. The temporal dynamics of recharge are dominated by interannual climate variations, but are also affected by land cover types and soil types. Recharge occurred year-round in agricultural lands but intermittently in forested lands with both recharge and discharge occurring at different times within the same grid cell. Major recharge pulses were associated with spring snowmelt and also occurred in summer and fall and sometimes in late fall but there was considerable variability from year to year depending on the dominant land use and climate. Our approach based on the use of an integrated hydrologic model combined with multi-source data can be used in larger areas and is suitable for studying climate change impacts on groundwater resources.

Climatic triggers and phenological responses in Isoetes cangae (Isoetaceae), an endemic quillwort from Amazon Iron Rocky Outcrops, Brazil

South America is the center of diversity of the genus Isoetes and several new species have been described in the last decade, especially in Brazil. Isoetes cangae J.B.S. Pereira, Salino & Stützel was first recognized in 2016 as an endemic species of a single lake in Serra dos Carajás, Brazil, in the southeastern Amazon region. The climate of Amazon is warm with a seasonal precipitation regime, which affects aquatic ecosystem properties and regulates plant phenology. Understanding how climatic and hydrological drivers affect I. cangae is fundamental for its conservation because the species is quite vulnerable due to its restricted distribution. In this study, we evaluated the effects of seasonal climatic variations and water level on the phenology of I. cangae over two years. The maximum leaf length, the number of sporophylls (fertile leaves), and the total number of leaves were assessed. Sporophylls were classified into mature and immature, megasporophylls and microsporophylls. The number of leaves, leaf length, and the number of sporophylls changed drastically among the hydrological seasons, but not the ratio between sporophylls and leaves, suggesting that reproductive effort is distributed accordingly over the years. All these factors also varied between years, indicating that inter-annual climatic variations affect the morphology and reproduction of I. cangae. Sporophylls are produced throughout the year, but their maturation and release increase in the rainy and early dry seasons, respectively. Megasporophylls predominate over microsporophylls throughout the year, and the peak of sporophyll maturation occurs during the rainy season, but lasts longer (till early dry season) for megasporophylls. The reproductive traits were associated with lake water level, suggesting that development is stimulated during the driest and hottest periods. Therefore, our results show that environmental factors play an important role in I. cangae phenology and must be considered in the management and conservation efforts to preserve this ancient Amazonian plant.

La Niña-related tropospheric column ozone enhancement over East Asia

The El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), a dominant driver of interannual climate variations around the world, is characterized in the central-to-eastern tropical Pacific by anomalous sea-surface warming during the El Niño phase and cooling during the La Niña phase. Although ENSO strongly affects atmospheric circulation in East Asia, its effects on tropospheric ozone there have not been fully explored. Here we use satellite measurements of tropospheric column ozone and chemistry-climate model simulations to assess the effects of atmospheric circulations driven by ENSO on tropospheric column ozone levels in East Asia. We find that the observed ozone tends to increase in the East Asian troposphere 4 months after the La Niña peak, corresponding to anomalous northerly downward motions and suppressed convection. The circulation changes can be attributed to anomalous cyclonic flows in the western North Pacific, which links the La Niña and East Asian climate by modulating meridional transport of water vapor. These post-La Niña changes are also evident in the chemistry-climate model results, albeit with a slightly longer (5-month) lag. The model also reveals that La Niña-related ozone enhancement in East Asia is largely due to the intensified southward transport of ozone-rich air from higher latitudes. This suggests that ENSO should be considered to estimate the ozone concentration in East Asia, requiring much attention of ENSO properties in a changing climate.

Climate Variability May Delay Post-Fire Recovery of Boreal Forest in Southern Siberia, Russia

Prolonged dry periods and increased temperatures that result from anthropogenic climate change have been shown to increase the frequency and severity of wildfires in the boreal region. There is growing evidence that such changes in fire regime can reduce forest resilience and drive shifts in post-fire plant successional trajectories. The response of post-fire vegetation communities to climate variability is under-studied, despite being a critical phase determining the ultimate successional conclusion. This study investigated the responses of post-fire recruited species to climate change and inter-annual variability at 16 study sites that experienced high-severity fire events, mostly in early 2000, within the Scots pine forest-steppe zone of southeastern Siberia, Russia. These sites were originally dominated by Scots pine, and by 2018, they were recruited by different successional species. Additionally, three mature Scots pine stands were included for comparison. A Bayesian Additive Regression Trees (BART) approach was used to model the relationship between Landsat-derived Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) time series, temperature and precipitation in the 15 years after a stand-replacing fire. Using the resulting BART models, together with six projected climate scenarios with increased temperature and enhanced inner-annual precipitation variability, we simulated NDVI at 5-year intervals for 15 years post-fire. Our results show that the BART models performed well, with in-sample Pseudo-R2 varying from 0.49 to 0.95 for fire-disturbed sites. Increased temperature enhanced greenness across all sites and across all three time periods since fires, exhibiting a positive feedback in a warming environment. Repeatedly dry spring periods reduced NDVI at all the sites and wetter summer periods following such dry springs could not compensate for this, indicating that a prolonged dry spring has a strong impact consistently over the entire early developmental stages from the initial 5 years to 15 years post-fire. Further, young forests showed higher climate sensitivity compared to the mature forest, irrespective of species and projected climatic conditions. Our findings suggest that a dry spring not only increases fire risk, but also delays recovery of boreal forests in southern Siberia. It also highlights the importance of changing rainfall seasonality as well as total rainfall in a changing climate for post-fire recovery of forest.

ENSO phase-locking biases from the CMIP5 to CMIP6 models and a possible explanation

The El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) system is the most significant equatorial interannual climate variability pattern and has enormous global climate impacts. The ability to forecast ENSO accurately is crucially important to human livelihoods worldwide. ENSO is characterized by strong winter-peaking sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies in the central-eastern tropical Pacific during the mature phase. However, the bias in simulating ENSO phase-locking behavior persists in climate models. In this study, the ENSO seasonal phase-locking behaviors simulated in 42 Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) models are evaluated by comparing 43 CMIP5 models and observations. Only a few models (12 CMIP5 and 15 CMIP6) simulated ENSO with a majority proportion of winter-peaking events, which indicates that reasonable ENSO seasonal phase-locking is still a challenge for state-of-the-art climate models. Furthermore, the seasonal cycle of the zonal SST gradient along the equator can explain approximately 24% and 27% of the variance in the ENSO phase-locking for CMIP5 and CMIP6, respectively. In particular, the strengths of the zonal SST gradient in the central-eastern Pacific during boreal spring and autumn are crucial. The biases in simulating the seasonal changes in the zonal SST gradient influence the zonal advective feedback's strengths that respond to the anomalous SST of ENSO, therefore disturbing the simulation of ENSO phase-locking. Improvement of the simulated ENSO phase-locking should be realized by focusing on the zonal SST gradient's seasonal cycle.

Ecohydrological modelling in a deciduous boreal forest: Model evaluation for application in non‐stationary climates

AbstractSoil moisture is an important driver of growth in boreal Alaska, but estimating soil hydraulic parameters can be challenging in this data‐sparse region. Parameter estimation is further complicated in regions with rapidly warming climate, where there is a need to minimize model error dependence on interannual climate variations. To better identify soil hydraulic parameters and quantify energy and water balance and soil moisture dynamics, we applied the physically based, one‐dimensional ecohydrological Simultaneous Heat and Water (SHAW) model, loosely coupled with the Geophysical Institute of Permafrost Laboratory (GIPL) model, to an upland deciduous forest stand in interior Alaska over a 13‐year period. Using a Generalized Likelihood Uncertainty Estimation parameterisation, SHAW reproduced interannual and vertical spatial variability of soil moisture during a five‐year validation period quite well, with root mean squared error (RMSE) of volumetric water content at 0.5 m as low as 0.020 cm3/cm3. Many parameter sets reproduced reasonable soil moisture dynamics, suggesting considerable equifinality. Model performance generally declined in the eight‐year validation period, indicating some overfitting and demonstrating the importance of interannual variability in model evaluation. We compared the performance of parameter sets selected based on traditional performance measures such as the RMSE that minimize error in soil moisture simulation, with one that is designed to minimize the dependence of model error on interannual climate variability using a new diagnostic approach we call CSMP, which stands for Climate Sensitivity of Model Performance. Use of the CSMP approach moderately decreases traditional model performance but may be more suitable for climate change applications, for which it is important that model error is independent from climate variability. These findings illustrate (1) that the SHAW model, coupled with GIPL, can adequately simulate soil moisture dynamics in this boreal deciduous region, (2) the importance of interannual variability in model parameterisation, and (3) a novel objective function for parameter selection to improve applicability in non‐stationary climates.

Variation in Seed Harvest Potential of Carapa guianensis Aublet in the Brazilian Amazon: A Multi-Year, Multi-Region Study of Determinants of Mast Seeding and Seed Quantity

This work augments research on masting for the economically important tropical tree Carapa guianensis Aublet, specifically on whether determinants of mast years vary regionally, spatially, and due to longer term ENSO climate patterns. Longer term measurements (an 11-year period in Acre and Roraima; 4 years and 8 months in Amapá) from three regions of the Brazilian Amazon allowed for the analysis of whether climate cues were regionally consistent for this species. We used generalized linear mixed models, to determine which factors were significant in predicting whether trees would produce in a given year and to model the seed production quantity. We found a positive effect of increasing the diameter at breast height (dbh) on the quantity and likelihood of seed production. Our results also suggested that ecosystems and climate cues may jointly affect seed production. In flooded forests, increases in dry season rainfall had a negative impact on the likelihood of seed production whilst none of the precipitation variables investigated influenced the quantity of seeds produced. In drier terra firme forests in Acre with extended dry seasons, increases in dry season precipitation had significant and positive impacts on both the likelihood and the quantity of seed production. Our results illustrate the importance of considering plant habitat and climate to better understand individual and regional differences in seed production and their responses to inter-annual climate variation.

Future Changes to El Niño Teleconnections over the North Pacific and North America

AbstractThe El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is the leading mode of interannual climate variability and it exerts a strong influence on many remote regions of the world, for example in northern North America. Here, we examine future changes to the positive-phase ENSO teleconnection to the North Pacific/North America sector and investigate the mechanisms involved. We find that the positive temperature anomalies over Alaska and northern North America that are associated with an El Niño event in the present day are much weaker, or of the opposite sign, in the CMIP6 abrupt 4×CO2 experiments for almost all models (22 out of 26, of which 15 are statistically significant differences). This is largely related to changes to the anomalous circulation over the North Pacific, rather than differences in the equator-to-pole temperature gradient. Using a barotropic model, run with different background circulation basic states and Rossby wave source forcing patterns from the individual CMIP6 models, we find that changes to the forcing from the equatorial central Pacific precipitation anomalies are more important than changes in the global basic state background circulation. By further decomposing this forcing change into changes associated with the longitude and magnitude of ENSO precipitation anomalies, we demonstrate that the projected overall eastward shift of ENSO precipitation is the main driver of the temperature teleconnection change, rather than the increase in magnitude of El Niño precipitation anomalies which are, nevertheless, seen in the majority of models.

Climate teleconnections, interannual variability, and evolution of the rainfall regime in a tropical Caribbean island: case study of Barbados

A limited number of studies have focused on the hydroclimate dynamics of tropical Caribbean islands. The present study aims to analyze the rainfall regime in Barbados. CHIRPS gridded dataset, at a resolution of 0.05°×0.05°, providing daily rainfall data from January 1981 until 2018 was used. The variables analyzed were the annual and seasonal maximum rainfall, the total annual and seasonal rainfall, and the number of rainy days per year and per season. Potential change points in rainfall time-series were detected with a Bayesian multiple change point detection procedure. Time series were then analyzed for detection of trends using the modified Mann-Kendall test. The true temporal slopes of the rainfall time series were obtained with the Theil-Sen’s statistic. The links between rainfall and various global climate oscillation indices were also investigated. Results indicate that no change points or significant trends were observed in the annual rainfall time series. However, it was found that some climate indices have a strong correlation with precipitation on the island, especially for the total rainfall and the number of rainy days. A stationary and non-stationary frequency analysis is carried out on the rainfall annual variables using climate oscillation indices as covariates, and uncertainties on quantile estimates are identified. It is shown that non-stationary models lead to a better fit to rainfall data. Empirical mode decomposition (EMD) is used for the long-term prediction of hydro-climatic time series. Rainfall annual time series were extended with this method for a period of 20 years. Results indicate that, within that period, annual maximum rainfall will increase by about 12 mm (or 0.6 mm/year), total annual rainfall will increase by about 200 mm (or 10 mm/year) and the number of rainy days per year will see a slight decrease by about 3 days (or 0.15 day/year).

Inter-annual and spatial climatic variability have led to a balance between local fluctuating selection and wide-range directional selection in a perennial grass species.

The persistence of a plant population under a specific local climatic regime requires phenotypic adaptation with underlying particular combinations of alleles at adaptive loci. The level of allele diversity at adaptive loci within a natural plant population conditions its potential to evolve, notably towards adaptation to a change in climate. Investigating the environmental factors that contribute to the maintenance of adaptive diversity in populations is thus worthwhile. Within-population allele diversity at adaptive loci can be partly driven by the mean climate at the population site but also by its temporal variability. The effects of climate temporal mean and variability on within-population allele diversity at putatively adaptive quantitative trait loci (QTLs) were evaluated using 385 natural populations of Lolium perenne (perennial ryegrass) collected right across Europe. For seven adaptive traits related to reproductive phenology and vegetative potential growth seasonality, the average within-population allele diversity at major QTLs (HeA) was computed. Significant relationships were found between HeA of these traits and the temporal mean and variability of the local climate. These relationships were consistent with functional ecology theory. Results indicated that temporal variability of local climate has likely led to fluctuating directional selection, which has contributed to the maintenance of allele diversity at adaptive loci and thus potential for further adaptation.

Unveiling the mysteries of SST evolutions in the equatorial Pacific at the onset of El Niño events

AbstractIt is generally accepted that the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) dominates interannual climate variability. Yet its genesis and maintenance mechanisms are still under intense debate with no scientific consensus. Some authors argued that the westerly winds originating over the equatorial Indian Ocean significantly enhanced and extended eastward in the western and central equatorial Pacific during El Niño events, thus advecting the warm pool eastward along the equator and causing SST anomalies. However, this assertion is unlikely to be quantitatively supported by observational data. Here we present detailed observational data and modeling evidence to demonstrate that the westerly winds remained little changein intensity in the western equatorial Pacific, with a wider zonal extent only during most El Niño events, and with a slight increase even if in the most pronounced 1997 El Niño. Instead, an eastward equatorial current near the equator has been observed and considered to play a significant role in shifting the eastern edge of the warm pool eastward, elevating SSTs in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific and giving rise to El Niño, with the interactions between the eastward warm pool and the upwelling in the eastern cold tongue ascertaining the amplitudes of SST anomalies.

El Ni\xf1o teleconnection to the Euro-Mediterranean late-winter: the role of extratropical Pacific modulation

El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) represents the major driver of interannual climate variability at global scale. Observational and model-based studies have fostered a long-standing debate on the shape and intensity of the ENSO influence over the Euro-Mediterranean sector. Indeed, the detection of this signal is strongly affected by the large internal variability that characterizes the atmospheric circulation in the North Atlantic–European (NAE) region. This study explores if and how the low-frequency variability of North Pacific sea surface temperature (SST) may impact the El Niño-NAE teleconnection in late winter, which consists of a dipolar pattern between middle and high latitudes. A set of idealized atmosphere-only experiments, prescribing different phases of the anomalous SST linked to the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) superimposed onto an El Niño-like forcing in the tropical Pacific, has been performed in a multi-model framework, in order to assess the potential modulation of the positive ENSO signal. The modelling results suggest, in agreement with observational estimates, that the PDO negative phase (PDO−) may enhance the amplitude of the El Niño-NAE teleconnection, while the dynamics involved appear to be unaltered. On the other hand, the modulating role of the PDO positive phase (PDO+) is not reliable across models. This finding is consistent with the atmospheric response to the PDO itself, which is robust and statistically significant only for PDO−. Its modulation seems to rely on the enhanced meridional SST gradient and the related turbulent heat-flux released along the Kuroshio–Oyashio extension. PDO− weakens the North Pacific jet, whereby favoring more poleward propagation of wave activity, strengthening the El Niño-forced Rossby wave-train. These results imply that there might be conditional predictability for the interannual Euro-Mediterranean climate variability depending on the background state.

Shifting Patterns of Summer Lake Color Phenology in Over 26,000 US Lakes.

Lakes are often defined by seasonal cycles. The seasonal timing, or phenology, of many lake processes are changing in response to human activities. However, long‐term records exist for few lakes, and extrapolating patterns observed in these lakes to entire landscapes is exceedingly difficult using the limited number of available in situ observations. Limited landscape‐level observations mean we do not know how common shifts in lake phenology are at macroscales. Here, we use a new remote sensing data set, LimnoSat‐US, to analyze U.S. summer lake color phenology between 1984 and 2020 across more than 26,000 lakes. Our results show that summer lake color seasonality can be generalized into five distinct phenology groups that follow well‐known patterns of phytoplankton succession. The frequency with which lakes transition from one phenology group to another is tied to lake and landscape level characteristics. Lakes with high inflows and low variation in their seasonal surface area are generally more stable, while lakes in areas with high interannual variations in climate and catchment population density show less stability. Our results reveal previously unexamined spatiotemporal patterns in lake seasonality and demonstrate the utility of LimnoSat‐US, which, with over 22 million remote sensing observations of lakes, creates novel opportunities to examine changing lake ecosystems at a national scale.

Adjusting xylem anatomy and growth to inter-annual climate variability in two Fabaceae species (Centrolobium microchaete, Cenostigma pluviosum) from Bolivian dry tropical forests

Climate-growth relationships are strong in seasonally dry tropical forests (SDTFs). To better understand the ecological processes controlling these relationships we need to assess the long-term responses of wood anatomy and radial growth to year-to-year climate variability. We assessed how wood-anatomical traits (mean vessel area –MVA– and vessel density –VD–, percentage of conductive area –CA–, xylem-specific estimated hydraulic conductivity –Ks–) and growth responded to local climate (mean temperature, total precipitation, estimated moisture) variability and teleconnections (Pacific Decadal Oscillation) between 1970 and 2011 in two Fabaceae tree species (Centrolobium microchaete and Cenostigma pluviosum) coexisting in a Bolivian SDTF. We found that C. microchaete produced wider vessels and was more responsive to both local climate conditions and teleconnections than C. pluviosum. In C. microchaete VD positively responded to average temperature in the late-wet season and in the previous dry season, and CA and Ks were higher in years with warmer wet and previous early-dry seasons, as well as in years with higher PDO values. These responses were independent from ring-width variability only for C. microchaete. For C. pluviosum, vessel chronologies were more responsive to local temperature variability, and only MVA and CA positively and negatively responded to moisture in the early-dry and the previous dry seasons, respectively. Our results show that wood hydraulic structure in SDTFs is responsive to climate fluctuations. The combined study of ring width and wood anatomy allows having a more complete picture of the influence of climate on growth, particularly in species as C. microchaete which show low collinearity of tree-ring width and wood plasticity in response to climate variability.