Quantification of climate-induced interannual variability in residential U.S. electricity demand

Abstract

We assess the sensitivity of residential electricity demand in 48 U S. states to seasonal climate variations and structural changes pertaining to state-level household electricity demand. The main objective is to quantify the effects of seasonal climate variability on residential electricity demand variability during the winter and summer seasons. We use state-level monthly demographic, energy, and climate data from 2005 to 2017 in a linear regression model and find that interannual climate variability explains a significant share of seasonal household electricity demand variation: in 42 states, more than 70% and 50% of demand variability in summer and winter, respectively, is driven by climate. Our work suggests the need for new datasets to quantify unexplained variance in the winter and summer electricity demand. Findings from this study are critical to developing seasonal electricity demand forecasts, which can aid power system operation and management, particularly in a future with greater electrification of end-use demands.