Interaction Of Multiple Stressors Research Articles

Antagonistic effects of multiple stressors on macroinvertebrate biomass from a temperate estuary (Minho estuary, NW Iberian Peninsula)

An ecosystem model of the Minho estuary (NW coast of Iberian Peninsula) was implemented in AQUATOX 3.1 (US-EPA) to check whether the effects of temperature rise, dry years, rainy years and river flow decrease acting isolated (single stressor) or combined (multiple stressor) would induce the same type of response on macroinvertebrate biomass variation and to identify the type of stressor interactions. The model was parameterised with site-specific and species-specific data and accounts for a food web with primary producers, benthic invertebrates, fish and detritus, with 12 biotic groups, 4 groups of detritus and 12 forcing functions.Results showed that macroinvertebrate biomass responded differently to single stressor and multiple stressor scenarios and interactions among the tested stressors were antagonistic. During medium term simulations (∼6 years), the biomass of macroinvertebrate communities from the Minho estuary was maintained or slightly increased in single scenarios of temperature rise but the occurrence of antagonistic interactions between temperature rise, river flow decrease, dry years and rainy years counteracted the increasing tendency in multiple stressor scenarios.Overall, the present results highlight the strong dependence of the system’s biomass and production on hydrodynamics and contribute to increase knowledge on the mechanistic processes behind this. Thus, we recommend an ecosystem-based management of the Minho River basin supported by models such as the present one.

Marine protected areas enhance structural complexity but do not buffer the consequences of ocean warming for an overexploited precious coral

Abstract Global warming and overexploitation both threaten the integrity and resilience of marine ecosystems. Many calls have been made to at least partially offset climate change impacts through local conservation management. However, a mechanistic understanding of the interactions of multiple stressors is generally lacking for habitat‐forming species; preventing the development of sound conservation strategies. We examined the effectiveness of no‐take marine protected areas (MPAs) at enhancing structural complexity and resilience to climate change on populations of an overexploited and long‐lived octocoral. We used long‐term data over eight populations, subjected to varying levels of disturbances, and Integral Projection Models to understand how the overfishing and mass‐mortality events shape the stochastic dynamics of the Mediterranean red coral Corallium rubrum. Marine protected areas largely reduced colony partial mortality (i.e. shrinkage), enhancing the structural complexity of coral populations. However, there were no significant differences in individual mortality or population growth rates between protected and exploited populations. In contrast, warming had detrimental consequences for the long‐term viability of red coral populations, driving steady declines and potential local extinctions due to sharp effects in survival rates. Stochastic demographic models revealed only a weak compensatory effect of MPAs on the impacts of warming. Policy implications. Our results suggest that marine protected areas (MPAs) are an effective local conservation tool for enhancing the structural complexity of red coral populations. However, MPAs may not be enough to ensure red coral's persistence under future increases in thermal stress. Accordingly, conservation strategies aiming to ensure the persistence and functional role of red coral populations should include management actions at both local (well‐enforced MPAs) and global scales (reductions in greenhouse gas emissions). Finally, this study unravels the divergent demographic consequences that can arise from multiple stressors and highlights the key role of demography in better understanding and predicting the consequences of combined impacts for vulnerable ecosystems.

Flow regimes filter species traits of benthic diatom communities and modify the functional features of lowland streams - a nationwide scale study

Changes in land use, climate and flow diversion are key drivers of river flow regime change that may eventually affect freshwater biodiversity and ecosystem functions. However, our knowledge is limited on how the functional features of stream organisms vary along the gradient of hydrological disturbance (i.e. flow regime changes) and how flow regimes mediate the functional features in lowland streams. We analyzed the functional traits of benthic diatoms (unicellular siliceous algae) that are most sensitive and tolerant to flow regime changes along a nationwide scale of 246 sites in Denmark. We combined RLQ and fourth-corner analyses to explore the co-variation between hydrological variables (R table) and species traits (Q table), constrained by the relative abundance of each species (L table) as observed in each of the sampling sites. Further, we examine the relationships between functional features (i.e., functional redundancy and diversity) and hydrological variables by multivariate statistical analyses. Results show that species turnover with displacement of sensitive species by tolerant species was the dominating process in benthic diatom communities during high flow disturbances. Functional features, as indicated by functional diversity and redundancy indices, were mediated mainly by high and low flow magnitude. Median daily flow magnitude shows a consistent positive relationship with functional redundancy and richness indices indicating that larger streams are more resilient to flow perturbations. In addition flow regime changes are less important than median daily flow magnitude and show inconsistent correlation to functional features likely due to the interaction of multiple environmental stressors. Our study highlights the robustness of trait-based approaches for identifying flow regime changes in streams, and strongly suggests that biodiversity conservation and water resource management should focus on protecting natural base flow in headwater streams and generally reduce flow regulation for sustaining stream ecosystems under future global changes.

Interactions among stressors may be weak: Implications for management of freshwater macroinvertebrate communities

AbstractAimEcological models that do not account for interactions among stressors, if interactions are important, could be inaccurate and lead to inefficient conservation strategies. Conversely, if interactions are not important (i.e., stressors operate largely independently), then actions concentrating on a stressor‐by‐stressor basis would be warranted. Here, we investigated whether interactions among multiple stressors affected widely used indices of freshwater macroinvertebrate biodiversity, which are sensitive to environmental change at management‐relevant scales (i.e., reaches and catchments).LocationState of Victoria, south‐eastern Australia.MethodsWe used a 7,418‐sample dataset for stream macroinvertebrates from 2,165 sites distributed over 237,630 km2 for 20 years. We calculated the interactive effects on stream macroinvertebrates of stressors operating at different scales, namely vegetation loss at the catchment and reach scales and hydrological change and salinization at the local scale. The importance of interactions among multiple stressors was assessed by comparing the cross‐validated predictive performance of models with and without multiple stressor interaction terms.ResultsCross‐validated models explained 31%–63% of the variation in the macroinvertebrate responses. The most important stressors were catchment vegetation loss (the proportion of remaining native vegetation cover) and salinity. The inclusion of interaction terms did not increase cross‐validated predictive performance, which indicates that there was little evidence that interactions among stressors were important for explaining variation in commonly used freshwater macroinvertebrate condition indices.Main conclusionsInteractions among vegetation, salinity and hydrological change stressors may not always be of importance for determining patterns of stream macroinvertebrate biodiversity, so that such interactions may not necessarily be critical considerations for catchment and reach scale management, at least if based on these or comparable condition indices. The mitigation of the impacts of vegetation loss, salinization and hydrological change stressors one‐by‐one probably is sufficient to guide conservation activities and might be advantageous if socio‐political contexts make it difficult to address interactions among stressors.

Chlorpyrifos interacts with other agricultural stressors to alter stream communities in laboratory microcosms.

Chlorpyrifos is one of the most widely used agricultural insecticides in the world, but to date there is limited empirical information about its potential to interact with other common agricultural stressors. We conducted a 15-d, community-level, microcosm experiment evaluating individual and combined effects of chlorpyrifos, nutrient enrichment, and sedimentation on stream invertebrate communities (abundance, biomass, richness, size structure, composition) and ecosystem processes (primary productivity and leaf decomposition). We found that sedimentation was the most detrimental stressor, with significant negative impacts on most invertebrate community and ecosystem function variables. Even though chlorpyrifos did not cause significant invertebrate mortality in the microcosms, it still altered ecosystem function by lowering leaf decomposition rates, probably through sublethal inhibition of invertebrate shredders. Furthermore, we observed a significant reversal interaction between chlorpyrifos and sediment for small-sized invertebrates collected in gravel (abundance in sediment×insecticide microcosms was 2.4 times lower than predicted by additivity), as well as an antagonistic interaction with nutrients on invertebrate richness in the same microhabitat (richness in nutrient×insecticide microcosms was 1.6 times higher than predicted by additivity). Our results suggest that chlorpyrifos has the potential to alter freshwater ecosystem function and interact non-additively with other common agricultural stressors. These findings are in keeping with a growing body of research highlighting that multiple stressor interactions and ecosystem processes should be considered when evaluating the impacts of organic toxicants on freshwater ecosystems.

Multiple-stressor effects on stream macroinvertebrate communities: A mesocosm experiment manipulating salinity, fine sediment and flow velocity

Stream ecosystems are impacted by multiple stressors worldwide. Recent studies have shown that the effects of multiple stressors are often complex and difficult to predict based on the effects of single stressors. More research is needed to understand stressor impacts on stream communities and to design appropriate counteractions. We carried out an outdoor mesocosm experiment to assess single and interactive multiple-stressor effects on stream macroinvertebrates in a setup with controlled application of three globally important stressors, namely, reduced stream flow velocity, deposition of fine sediment and increased chloride concentration in a full-factorial design. Each mesocosm comprised three compartments (channel substratum, leaf litter bag and drift net) that were individually analyzed and also compared. We identified 102,501 specimens in total (mainly to family level), 36.5% of which were found in the substratum, 60.6% in litter bags and 2.9% in the drift. Added fine sediment and reduced flow velocity had strong negative single-stressor effects on the abundances of EPT taxa, i.e. Ephemeroptera (mayflies), Plecoptera (stoneflies) and Trichoptera (caddisflies), and a positive effect on chironomid abundances in the substratum. Increased salt concentration reduced abundances of Ephemeroptera. Chironomids migrated from litter bag to channel substratum when water velocity was reduced and Leptophlebiidae in the opposite direction when sediment was added. All three stressors caused higher drift propensities, especially added fine sediment. Both additive and complex multiple-stressor effects were common. A complex three-way interaction affected EPT richness in the substratum, demonstrating the need to evaluate higher-order interactions for more than two stressors. Our results add further evidence that multiple-stressor interactions, notably increased salinity with other stressors, affect a variety of invertebrate taxa across different habitats of stream communities. The results have direct implications for water management as they highlight the need to re-evaluate defined salinity thresholds in the context of multiple-stressor interactions.

Absence of deformed wing virus and Varroa destructor in Australia provides unique perspectives on honeybee viral landscapes and colony losses

Honeybee (Apis mellifera) health is threatened globally by the complex interaction of multiple stressors, including the parasitic mite Varroa destructor and a number of pathogenic viruses. Australia provides a unique opportunity to study this pathogenic viral landscape in the absence of V. destructor. We analysed 1,240A. mellifera colonies across Australia by reverse transcription-polymerase chain reaction (RT-PCR) and next-generation sequencing (NGS). Five viruses were prevalent: black queen cell virus (BQCV), sacbrood virus (SBV), Israeli acute paralysis virus (IAPV) and the Lake Sinai viruses (LSV1 and LSV2), of which the latter three were detected for the first time in Australia. We also showed several viruses were absent in our sampling, including deformed wing virus (DWV) and slow bee paralysis virus (SBPV). Our findings highlight that viruses can be highly prevalent in A. mellifera populations independently of V. destructor. Placing these results in an international context, our results support the hypothesis that the co-pathogenic interaction of V. destructor and DWV is a key driver of increased colony losses, but additional stressors such as pesticides, poor nutrition, etc. may enable more severe and frequent colony losses to occur.

Effects of projected climate change on vegetation in the Blue Mountains ecoregion, USA

We used autecological, paleoecological, and modeling information to explore the potential effects of climate change on vegetation in the Blue Mountains ecoregion, Oregon (USA). Although uncertainty exists about the exact nature of future vegetation change, we infer that the following are likely to occur by the end of the century: (1) dominance of ponderosa pine and sagebrush will increase in many locations, (2) the forest-steppe ecotone will move upward in latitude and elevation, (3) ponderosa pine will be distributed at higher elevations, (4) subalpine and alpine systems will be replaced by grass species, pine, and Douglas-fir, (5) moist forest types may increase under wetter scenarios, (6) the distribution and abundance of juniper woodlands may decrease if the frequency and extent of wildfire increase, and (7) grasslands and shrublands will increase at lower elevations. Tree growth in energy-limited landscapes (high elevations, north aspects) will increase as the climate warms and snowpack decreases, whereas tree growth in water-limited landscapes (low elevations, south aspects) will decrease. Ecological disturbances, including wildfire, insect outbreaks, and non-native species, which are expected to increase in a warmer climate, will affect species distribution, tree age, and vegetation structure, facilitating transitions to new combinations of species and vegetation patterns. In dry forests where fire has not occurred for several decades, crown fires may result in high tree mortality, and the interaction of multiple disturbances and stressors will probably exacerbate stress complexes. Increased disturbance will favor species with physiological and phenological traits that allow them to tolerate frequent disturbance.

Identification and interaction of multiple stressors in central European lowland rivers

Interactions of multiple stressors in lotic systems have received growing interest and have been analysed in a growing number of studies using experiment and survey data. In this study, we present a protocol to identify, display and analyse stressors of rivers and their interactions (additive, synergistic or antagonistic). We used a dataset of 125 samples of central European lowland rivers comprising hydromorphological, physico-chemical and land use stressor and pressure variables as well as benthic macroinvertebrate traits as biological response variables. To identify and visualise multiple stressor combinations jointly operating in the data set, we applied social network analysis. The main co-occurring stressor combination was fine sediment accumulation (hydromorphological stress) and enhanced phosphorus concentration (nutrient stress). Agricultural (cropland) and urban land use were identified as the main large scale environmental pressures. Stressor interactions were analysed using generalised linear regression modelling (GLM) including pairwise interaction terms. Altogether, 14 macroinvertebrate response variables were tested on six stressor combinations and revealed predominantly additive effects (80% of all significant models with absolute standardised effect sizes >0.1). Significant antagonistic and synergistic interactions occurred in almost 20% of the models. Fine sediment stress was more influential and frequent than nutrient stress. The methodology presented here is standardisable and thus could help inform practitioners in aquatic ecosystem monitoring about prominent combinations of multiple stressors and their interactions. Yet, further understanding of the mechanisms behind the biological responses is required to be able to derive appropriate guidance for management. This applies to rather complex stressors and pressures, such as land use, for which more detailed data (e.g. nutrient concentrations, fine sediment entry, pesticide pollution) is often missing.

Interactive effects of an insecticide and a fungicide on different organism groups and ecosystem functioning in a stream detrital food web

Freshwater ecosystems are often affected by cocktails of multiple pesticides targeting different organism groups. Prediction and evaluation of the ecosystem-level effects of these mixtures is complicated by the potential not only for interactions among the pesticides themselves, but also for the pesticides to alter biotic interactions across trophic levels. In a stream microcosm experiment, we investigated the effects of two pesticides targeting two organism groups (the insecticide lindane and fungicide azoxystrobin) on the functioning of a model stream detrital food web consisting of a detritivore (Ispoda: Asellus aquaticus) and microbes (an assemblage of fungal hyphomycetes) consuming leaf litter. We assessed how these pesticides interacted with the presence and absence of the detritivore to affect three indicators of ecosystem functioning – leaf decomposition, fungal biomass, fungal sporulation – as well as detritivore mortality. Leaf decomposition rates were more strongly impacted by the fungicide than the insecticide, reflecting especially negative effects on leaf processing by detritivores. This result most like reflects reduced fungal biomass and increased detritivore mortality under the fungicide treatment. Fungal sporulation was elevated by exposure to both the insecticide and fungicide, possibly representing a stress-induced increase in investment in propagule dispersal. Stressor interactions were apparent in the impacts of the combined pesticide treatment on fungal sporulation and detritivore mortality, which were reduced and elevated relative to the single stressor treatments, respectively. These results demonstrate the potential of trophic and multiple stressor interactions to modulate the ecosystem-level impacts of chemicals, highlighting important challenges in predicting, understanding and evaluating the impacts of multiple chemical stressors on more complex food webs in situ.

Multiple stressor effects on stream health in the Lake Simcoe Watershed

The Lake Simcoe Watershed (LSW) is an important natural resource, supporting varied agricultural, recreational, and tourism activities for millions of people. Historically, major alterations to land uses have occurred throughout the watershed, resulting in increases of nutrients and contaminants, and alteration of hydrological and thermal regimes. The combination of these stressors has the potential to elicit greater impacts on ecosystem health than any one stressor in isolation, yet no studies have examined their effects on stream health and aquatic biota in the LSW. In this study, we quantified the impacts of multiple stressors on indices of biotic integrity, as well as assessments of benthic invertebrate and fish community composition from 2004 to 2012. Using a suite of multivariate analyses, we examined stressors across three categories of environmental variables: water quality, temperature, and hydrology. Water quality explained the largest amount of variation in stream health and biological community composition, followed by water temperature and hydrological variables, respectively. Total phosphorus, dissolved oxygen, and iron concentrations, as well as the 7-day low flow and the mean summer temperature, were identified as predictors of both fish and benthic invertebrate variance. Multiple stressor interactions were detected for fish communities, although these interactions were of lower relative importance than for individual stressors. In contrast, no significant stressor interactions were found to influence benthic invertebrate communities. Overall, our results reinforce the importance of ecosystem monitoring, and the need to consider the influence of multiple aspects of ecosystem function, when examining the health of aquatic systems.

Effects of metal and predator stressors in larval southern toads (Anaxyrus terrestris).

Natural and anthropogenic stressors typically do not occur in isolation; therefore, understanding ecological risk of contaminant exposure should account for potential interactions of multiple stressors. Realistically, common contaminants can also occur chronically in the environment. Because parental exposure to stressors may cause transgenerational effects on offspring, affecting their ability to cope with the same or novel environmental stressors, the exposure histories of generations preceding that being tested should be considered. To examine multiple stressor and parental exposure effects we employed a 2×2×2 factorial design in outdoor 1000-L mesocosms (n=24). Larval southern toads (Anaxyrus terrestris), bred from parents collected from reference and metal-contaminated sites, were exposed to two levels of both an anthropogenic (copper-0, 30µg/L Cu) and natural (predator cue-present/absent) stressor and reared to metamorphosis. Toads from the metal-contaminated parental source population were smaller at metamorphosis and had delayed development; i.e., a prolonged larval period. Similarly, larval Cu exposure also reduced size at metamorphosis and prolonged the larval period. We, additionally, observed a significant interaction between larval Cu and predator-cue exposure on larval period, wherein delayed emergence was only present in the 30-µg/L Cu treatments in the absence of predator cues. The presence of parental effects as well as an interaction between aquatic stressors on commonly measured endpoints highlight the importance of conducting multistressor studies across generations to obtain data that are more relevant to field conditions in order to determine population-level effects of contaminant exposure.

Combined Effects of Ocean Warming and Acidification on Copepod Abundance, Body Size and Fatty Acid Content.

Concerns about increasing atmospheric CO2 concentrations and global warming have initiated studies on the consequences of multiple-stressor interactions on marine organisms and ecosystems. We present a fully-crossed factorial mesocosm study and assess how warming and acidification affect the abundance, body size, and fatty acid composition of copepods as a measure of nutritional quality. The experimental set-up allowed us to determine whether the effects of warming and acidification act additively, synergistically, or antagonistically on the abundance, body size, and fatty acid content of copepods, a major group of lower level consumers in marine food webs. Copepodite (developmental stages 1–5) and nauplii abundance were antagonistically affected by warming and acidification. Higher temperature decreased copepodite and nauplii abundance, while acidification partially compensated for the temperature effect. The abundance of adult copepods was negatively affected by warming. The prosome length of copepods was significantly reduced by warming, and the interaction of warming and CO2 antagonistically affected prosome length. Fatty acid composition was also significantly affected by warming. The content of saturated fatty acids increased, and the ratios of the polyunsaturated essential fatty acids docosahexaenoic- (DHA) and arachidonic acid (ARA) to total fatty acid content increased with higher temperatures. Additionally, here was a significant additive interaction effect of both parameters on arachidonic acid. Our results indicate that in a future ocean scenario, acidification might partially counteract some observed effects of increased temperature on zooplankton, while adding to others. These may be results of a fertilizing effect on phytoplankton as a copepod food source. In summary, copepod populations will be more strongly affected by warming rather than by acidifying oceans, but ocean acidification effects can modify some temperature impacts.

Multiple Stressors and Ecological Complexity Require a New Approach to Coral Reef Research

Ocean acidification, climate change, and other environmental stressors threaten coral reef ecosystems and the people who depend upon them. New science reveals that these multiple stressors interact and may affect a multitude of physiological and ecological processes in complex ways. The interaction of multiple stressors and ecological complexity may mean that the negative effects on coral reef ecosystems will happen sooner and be more severe than previously thought. Yet, most research on the effects of global change on coral reefs focus on one or few stressors and pathways or outcomes (e.g. bleaching). Based on a critical review of the literature, we call for a regionally targeted strategy of mesocosm-level research that addresses this complexity and provides more realistic projections about coral reef impacts in the face of global environmental change. We believe similar approaches are needed for other ecosystems that face global environmental change.

Contributions of a Child’s Built, Natural, and Social Environments to Their General Cognitive Ability: A Systematic Scoping Review

The etiology of a child’s cognitive ability is complex, with research suggesting that it is not attributed to a single determinant or even a defined period of exposure. Rather, cognitive development is the product of cumulative interactions with the environment, both negative and positive, over the life course. The aim of this systematic scoping review was to collate evidence associated with children’s cognitive health, including inherent factors as well as chemical and non-chemical stressors from the built, natural, and social environments. Three databases were used to identify recent epidemiological studies (2003–2013) that examined exposure factors associated with general cognitive ability in children. Over 100 factors were evaluated from 258 eligible studies. We found that recent literature mainly assessed the hypothesized negative effects of either inherent factors or chemical exposures present in the physical environment. Prenatal growth, sleep health, lead and water pollutants showed consistent negative effects. Of the few studies that examined social stressors, results consistently showed cognitive development to be influenced by both positive and negative social interactions at home, in school or the community. Among behavioral factors related to diet and lifestyle choices of the mother, breastfeeding was the most studied, showing consistent positive associations with cognitive ability. There were mostly inconsistent results for both chemical and non-chemical stressors. The majority of studies utilized traditional exposure assessments, evaluating chemical and non-chemical stressors separately. Collective evidence from a limited number of studies revealed that cumulative exposure assessment that incorporates multiple chemical and non-chemical stressors over the life course may unravel the variability in effect on cognitive development and help explain the inconsistencies across studies. Future research examining the interactions of multiple stressors within a child’s total environment, depicting a more real-world exposure, will aid in understanding the cumulative effects associated with a child’s ability to learn.

The influence of smoking on radiation-induced bystander signal production in esophageal cancer patients

The relevance of radiation-induced bystander effects in humans is unclear. Much of the existing data relate to cell lines but the effect of bystander signals in complex human tissues is unclear. A phase II clinical study was untaken, where blood sera from 60 patients along with 15 cancer-free volunteers were used to detect whether measurable bystander factor(s) could be found in the blood following high dose rate (HDR) brachytherapy. Overall, there was no significant change in bystander signal production (measured in a human keratinocyte reporter system) before and after one treatment fraction of HDR brachytherapy (p>0.05). Further assessment of patient characteristics and environmental modifiable factors including smoking were also analyzed. Similar to previously published data, samples taken from smokers produced weaker signals compared to non-smokers (p<0.05). Although the number of non-smoking subjects was low, there was a clear decrease in cloning efficiency observed in keratinocyte cultures for these patients that requires further study. This study found that samples taken from smokers do not produce bystander signals, whereas samples taken from non-smokers can produce such signals following HDR brachytherapy. These findings highlight the importance of studying the interactions of multiple stressors including environmental modifiers with radiation, since some factors such as smoking may elicit protection in tumor cells which could counteract the effectiveness of radiation therapy.

Predicting effects of ocean warming, acidification, and water quality onChesapeake region eelgrass

AbstractAlthough environmental requirements of seagrasses have been studied for years, reliable metrics for predicting their response to current or future conditions remain elusive. Eelgrass (Zostera marinaL.) populations of the Chesapeake region lie near the southern limit of their range in the Western North Atlantic, exposing them to increasing thermal stress as the climate warms. However, CO2stimulated photosynthesis may offset some of the negative effects of temperature stress. The combined effects of temperature, CO2, and light availability controlled by water quality and epiphytes were explored usingGrassLight, a bio‐optical model that provided a predictive environment for evaluating the interaction of multiple stressors on eelgrass distribution and density across the submarine landscape. Model predictions were validated against in situ measures of spectral diffuse attenuation, eelgrass density, and distribution. The potential for photosynthesis stimulated by ocean acidification to mitigate the effects of high temperature on eelgrass populations growing near the southern limit of their distribution was explored. The model accurately reproduced the submarine light environment from measured water quality parameters, and predicted their impacts on eelgrass distribution. It also reproduced the negative effects of warm summer temperatures on eelgrass distributions, and demonstrated that CO2increases projected for the next century should stimulate photosynthesis sufficiently to offset the negative effects of thermal stress on eelgrass growing in the Chesapeake region, even in the presence of epiphytes. Thus, improved water quality should facilitate the survival of eelgrass populations in Chesapeake region, even in the face of a warming climate.

Landscape level estimate of lands and waters impacted by road runoff in the Adirondack Park of New York State.

Road runoff is understood to be a significant stressor in terrestrial and aquatic ecosystems, yet the effects of this stressor are poorly understood at large spatial scales. We developed an efficient method for estimating the spatial impact of road runoff on lands and waters over large geographic areas and then applied our methodology to the 2.4 million ha Adirondack Park in New York State. We used TauDEM hydrologic modeling and a series of ESRI GIS processes to delineate surface flow downslope of paved roads, illustrating the potential movement of pollutants originating from paved roads through the USGS 10 m DEM topography. We then estimated the land and surface water areas, number of water bodies, and total stream length potentially impacted by road runoff from paved roads. We found that as much as 11% of land area, 77% of surface water area, 1/3 of the water bodies, and 52% of stream length in the Adirondack Park may be impacted by road runoff. The high degree of hydrologic association between paved roads and the lands and waters of this region strongly suggests that the environmental impacts of road runoff should be evaluated along with other regional stressors currently being studied. Being able to estimate the spatial impact of road runoff is important for designing monitoring programs that can explicitly monitor this stressor while also providing opportunities to understand the interaction of multiple environmental stressors.

Cumulative effects of planned industrial development and climate change on marine ecosystems

With increasing human population, large scale climate changes, and the interaction of multiple stressors, understanding cumulative effects on marine ecosystems is increasingly important. Two major drivers of change in coastal and marine ecosystems are industrial developments with acute impacts on local ecosystems, and global climate change stressors with widespread impacts. We conducted a cumulative effects mapping analysis of the marine waters of British Columbia, Canada, under different scenarios: climate change and planned developments. At the coast-wide scale, climate change drove the largest change in cumulative effects with both widespread impacts and high vulnerability scores. Where the impacts of planned developments occur, planned industrial and pipeline activities had high cumulative effects, but the footprint of these effects was comparatively localized. Nearshore habitats were at greatest risk from planned industrial and pipeline activities; in particular, the impacts of planned pipelines on rocky intertidal habitats were predicted to cause the highest change in cumulative effects. This method of incorporating planned industrial development in cumulative effects mapping allows explicit comparison of different scenarios with the potential to be used in environmental impact assessments at various scales. Its use allows resource managers to consider cumulative effect hotspots when making decisions regarding industrial developments and avoid unacceptable cumulative effects. Management needs to consider both global and local stressors in managing marine ecosystems for the protection of biodiversity and the provisioning of ecosystem services.

A holistic view of marine regime shifts

Understanding marine regime shifts is important not only for ecology but also for developing marine management that assures the provision of ecosystem services to humanity. While regime shift theory is well developed, there is still no common understanding on drivers, mechanisms and characteristic of abrupt changes in real marine ecosystems. Based on contributions to the present theme issue, we highlight some general issues that need to be overcome for developing a more comprehensive understanding of marine ecosystem regime shifts. We find a great divide between benthic reef and pelagic ocean systems in how regime shift theory is linked to observed abrupt changes. Furthermore, we suggest that the long-lasting discussion on the prevalence of top-down trophic or bottom-up physical drivers in inducing regime shifts may be overcome by taking into consideration the synergistic interactions of multiple stressors, and the special characteristics of different ecosystem types. We present a framework for the holistic investigation of marine regime shifts that considers multiple exogenous drivers that interact with endogenous mechanisms to cause abrupt, catastrophic change. This framework takes into account the time-delayed synergies of these stressors, which erode the resilience of the ecosystem and eventually enable the crossing of ecological thresholds. Finally, considering that increased pressures in the marine environment are predicted by the current climate change assessments, in order to avoid major losses of ecosystem services, we suggest that marine management approaches should incorporate knowledge on environmental thresholds and develop tools that consider regime shift dynamics and characteristics. This grand challenge can only be achieved through a holistic view of marine ecosystem dynamics as evidenced by this theme issue.