Abstract
With increasing human population, large scale climate changes, and the interaction of multiple stressors, understanding cumulative effects on marine ecosystems is increasingly important. Two major drivers of change in coastal and marine ecosystems are industrial developments with acute impacts on local ecosystems, and global climate change stressors with widespread impacts. We conducted a cumulative effects mapping analysis of the marine waters of British Columbia, Canada, under different scenarios: climate change and planned developments. At the coast-wide scale, climate change drove the largest change in cumulative effects with both widespread impacts and high vulnerability scores. Where the impacts of planned developments occur, planned industrial and pipeline activities had high cumulative effects, but the footprint of these effects was comparatively localized. Nearshore habitats were at greatest risk from planned industrial and pipeline activities; in particular, the impacts of planned pipelines on rocky intertidal habitats were predicted to cause the highest change in cumulative effects. This method of incorporating planned industrial development in cumulative effects mapping allows explicit comparison of different scenarios with the potential to be used in environmental impact assessments at various scales. Its use allows resource managers to consider cumulative effect hotspots when making decisions regarding industrial developments and avoid unacceptable cumulative effects. Management needs to consider both global and local stressors in managing marine ecosystems for the protection of biodiversity and the provisioning of ecosystem services.
Highlights
Understanding the impact of multiple stressors has been highlighted as one of the most important research needs to protect biodiversity and ecosystem services (Sala, 2000)
Cumulative effects scores from climate are highest in the southern third of British Columbia (Fig. 1(b)), while the highest scores for baseline and planned human activities are restricted to the shelf region and a small area around Vancouver and Prince Rupert (Fig. 1(c))
The importance of the two drivers of change – climate change and industrial development – on marine ecosystems varied with scale
Summary
Understanding the impact of multiple stressors has been highlighted as one of the most important research needs to protect biodiversity and ecosystem services (Sala, 2000). While fishing has traditionally received attention for its impact on marine ecosystems, two other major drivers of change will affect the future of the world’s oceans: climate change and industrial development. The effects of climate change, including ocean acidification, are expected to be both profound and complex, and can interact with current and historic impacts to dramatically alter the structure and function of marine ecosystems (Harley et al, 2006). In spite of their significance, climate change stressors have often been treated as externalities in management and planning, because high. Impacts on marine ecosystems are under study but largely unknown, and how they might interact with local stressors can be used to inform management choices and influence their success (Brown et al, 2013)
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