Interregional Flows Research Articles

Сommodity and Money Flows in Russian Empire in the Second half of the Nineteenth Century: Network and Geoinformation Analysis

This article deals with the domestic interregional cash flows in the Russian Empire, which flowed in the opposite direction to the flows of commodities and services; thus, they can be used as proxies of the resource allocation and uneven development of regions. This study is based on the statistics of transfers between branches of the State Bank of the Russian Empire, and it conducts a network and geoinformation analysis for 1868, 1878, 1888, and 1898. The study proves that the top segment of the payment network, including ties with St. Petersburg and Moscow, was organized like a “double star” (i.e., a star-type network with centers in two capitals with a huge flow between them). From St. Petersburg, the largest proportion of payments for goods and services were dispersed throughout the country, while Moscow was primarily a nationwide center for buying goods or receiving payments. The metropolitan segment always serviced more than half of all settlements in the country. In the European part of the empire, the largest regional ties (beyond the capitals) looked like the flows in the “pre-railway” period (1868); then, the largest flows were redistributed along the principal railways (1878); later, the flows compressed during the depression (1888); and then, the intraregional (local) flows increased sharply due to the expansion of local railroads (1898). Large interregional flows in the Asian part of the empire were inferior in size to those in the European part; until the 1890s, their main axis was the ties between Tomsk and Irkutsk as well as access to Nizhny Novgorod in the European part (through Yekaterinburg from the 1870s onwards). In the 1890s, new segments appeared in the Far East, in the Steppe Region (Kazakhstan), and in Central Asia.

High-speed rail and urban innovation: based on the perspective of labor mobility

High-speed rail (HSR) can enhance the inter-regional flow of labor factors, which is conducive to promoting knowledge exchange and the formation of innovation. Using prefecture-level data and the China Migrants Dynamic Survey (CMDS), and adopting a difference-in-differences model, we explore the effect of HSR connection on urban innovation as well as its mechanisms. The results indicate that compared with non-HSR cities, the innovation in connected cities significantly improves after HSR connection. The results remain robust after using an instrumental variable to deal with the possible endogeneity problem caused by the non-random placement of the HSR routes. Further investigations on the mechanisms show that one reason for the innovation improvement in HSR cities is the flow of talents from non-HSR cities to connected ones. The other reason for this increase is that HSR reinforces the interaction of talents among cities along the HSR routes.

Forecasting interregional youth migration flows

Subject. This article deals with the issues of youth migration, reproduction processes and the potential for the future socio-economic development of areas. Objectives. The article aims to develop a cellular automata model for the medium-term prediction of inter-regional youth migration flows of the 15–19 age cohort. Methods. For the study, we used a statistical analysis and the cellular automata theory. Results. The article presents a probabilistic cellular automata model with rectangular grids of cells without borders, where the number of cells coincides with the 15–19 age cohort number in the respective area. The article also proposes an author-developed cross-platform program in the Go programming language that helps make medium-term forecasts. Conclusions. The cellular automata allow for integrating various patterns of migratory behavior into a general model of area migration flow, and choosing the most adequate patterns of migratory behavior for various age and social groups of migrants.

Embodied Carbon Emissions and Regional Transfer Characteristics—Evidence from China

China has a considerable impact on climate change, as it is the world’s largest developing country. Its carbon emissions are also a global concern. This research employed a multi-region input–output model to estimate the local emission effect and the regional spillover effect caused by the demand for intermediate and final products, to analyze the interregional flow of carbon emissions, and to identify the main industries causing domestic carbon emissions in China from 2007 to 2012. A structural path analysis model was used to evaluate the contribution of different factors and demand types to changes in carbon emissions. The following findings were obtained in this study: (1) The regional spillover effect of carbon emissions driven by domestic demand is characterized by inland provinces’ demand leading to emissions in coastal provinces. (2) Electricity, nonmetallic minerals, and metals are the key industries for carbon emissions. (3) The results of the SDA indicate that the scale effect is the main driving force for the growth in carbon emissions caused by domestic demand in China. Fixed capital formation is the most critical demand factor influencing carbon emissions. This study provides new insights into the characteristics of regional emission transfer in China. The conclusion of this paper is helpful to China in achieving carbon peak and carbon neutrality.

Push and pull factors in Tunisian internal migration: The role of human capital

AbstractThis paper examines the pull and push factors of interregional flows in Tunisia, focusing on the role of differences in human capital. Using data from the 2004 and 2014 Tunisian censuses, we estimate a gravity model augmented with proxies capturing high‐ and low‐skilled level human capital and an original nighttime light proxy for regional GPD. We consider both unemployment rate differential and road distance as multilateral resistance variables, and we add cultural and quality of life variables. We find that the macroeconomic variables are the main determinants of interregional flows. As for human capital, high skilled level acts as a pull factor while low skilled level acts as a restraining factor in the destination regions. Furthermore, non‐economic variables have a significant impact on migration flows: Tunisians leave their origin regions not only in search of job opportunities but also in search of better living conditions.

The spatial characteristics of embodied carbon emission flow in Chinese provinces: a network-based perspective.

Combining the multi-regional input-output model with complex network technology, based on the provincial scale, this paper systematically describes the characteristics of the spatial network flow and its changing track of embodied carbon emissions among provinces in China from three dimensions of network structure, flow distribution characteristics, and spatial flow characteristics. Furthermore, the maximum spanning tree method is used to identify the spatial flow path of embodied carbon emissions between provinces and to distinguish the hierarchical status and roles of different provinces on the path. The research results show that the embodied carbon emission flow network among provinces has obvious small-world characteristics during the study, and the roles of different provinces in the network have significant heterogeneity. In general, Hebei and Inner Mongolia mainly act the role of suppliers of embodied carbon emissions, Guangdong and Zhejiang mainly act the role of consumers of embodied carbon emissions, while Zhejiang and Jiangsu mainly act as the media in the network. The spatial distribution characteristics of embodied carbon emission flow have a significant long tail effect; about 6% of the embodied carbon emission flow relationship among provinces accounts for 30% of that on the country level. The spatial flow direction of embodied carbon emissions was mainly concentrated in north China, central China, and southeast coastal region in the early stage and gradually shifted to inter-regional flows, presenting a divergent state of multiple regions and multiple centers. According to the flow path identification, it is found that Jiangsu, Guangdong, Hebei, Zhejiang, and other provinces are the key nodes on the spatial flow path of embodied carbon emissions in China, and the local center in a space is prominent. Based on the analysis and conclusions, the paper finally puts forward the corresponding countermeasures and suggestions in carbon reduction.

Mauritania’s internal migration dynamics and trends in response to rainfall variability and change1

The northwest African country of Mauritania is a vast, desert territory, which was historically been dominated by pastoral nomads. Since independence in 1960, the country has witnessed a dramatic sedentarization of its nomadic population, as well as settlements in and movements to urban centers. This vast sedentarization movement coupled with internal and interregional migration has resulted in the growth of Mauritania’s urban population from less than 10 percent of the total population in 1965 to nearly 90 percent in 2013. Factors that have caused this rapid urbanization, include the droughts that spanned the late 1960s through to the early 1980s, and the turbulent transformation of Mauritania’s political economy. The aim of this study is to determine and examine internal migration flows to analyze the relationship between long-term rainfall changes and dynamic spatial demographic shifts in terms of movements toward urban centers. In this regard, we propose an assessment approach that integrates official statistics from the decennial census and rainfall data, with available socioeconomic variables, to characterize interregional migration flows. Our result confirms that rates of interregional migration remain elevated and are expected to increase. In 2013, 702,575 individuals were documented as having participated in interregional migration, comprising 17.5 percent of the total population. In comparison, there were 477,814 individuals, which migrated inter-regionally in 2000, and 208,039 in 1988. These results demonstrate distinct interactions between climate variability and interregional migration in Mauritania throughout the past four decades.

Привлекательность Калининградской области: факторы притяжения и причины разочарования мигрантов из регионов России

The Kaliningrad region’s attractiveness to migrants results in increasing external (interna­tional) and interregional migration. The interregional flow is a major contributor, accounting for approximately 60 per cent of the net migration gain. However, the age composition and pro­fessional qualification of migrants from other regions of Russia do not fully agree with the specifics of the region’s labour market and its strategic socio-­economic development priori­ties. This lends urgency to a selective regional migration policy aimed at prospective internal migrants. Yet, the picture of pull, push and hindering factors remains incomplete, being limit­ed to generally accepted drivers such as coastal location and proximity to EU countries. This article aims at a detailed analysis of reasons to migrate to the region, an assessment of the re­strictions and difficulties faced by relocatees and migrants’ satisfaction with the new place of residence. Method­ologically, the study uses a mixed strategy: formal data collection methods are combined with respondent selection techniques peculiar to qualitative or expert methods. The authors draw on the results of an exploratory survey conducted in December 2021 with a view to analyse migrants’ perception of the Kaliningrad region before and after their arrival and assess how their ideas change. The survey applied mixed research methods: respondents were recruited via social media and relocatee groups. The data analysis reveals a gap between migrant expectations and reality, identifying the causes of inconsistency between the incoming migration flow and the region’s development objectives and labour market needs. Based on the findings, the authors provide recommendations for a migration policy based on an accurate picture of the region and aimed at attracting the required workforce, as well as at migrants’ adaptation and support at the new place of residence.

Global Trends and Drivers in Consumption- and Income-Based Emissions of Polycyclic Aromatic Hydrocarbons.

Polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) are a class of the most hazardous substances. As unavoidable byproducts of petrogenic and pyrogenic processes, their emissions are dominantly linked to various economic sectors. In international trade, not only final consumption but also primary input can transfer the emissions among regions. Therefore, a long-term impact assessment of the international trade on PAH global emissions based on the final consumption and primary input could significantly benefit worldwide PAH mitigation strategies. This study investigated the changes in consumption- and income-based PAH emissions and interregional flows of worldwide regions, using the latest available data from 1999 to 2014. Results show that in 2014, 16.8 and 10.1% of global PAH emissions were transferred by consumption and primary input through international trade. Meanwhile, the production-, consumption-, and income-based emissions in most regions were decreasing. Furthermore, from the consumption-based perspective, sub-Saharan Africa surpassed China and became the largest net exporter of consumption-based emissions. From the income-based perspective, the net income-based outflows of India and the rest of Asia increased significantly, indicating the income-based emission leakage in emerging markets. From the socioeconomic perspective, emission intensity dominated the global decline in PAH emissions. As the two main factors driving the increase in emissions, the primary input structure (41%) had a larger effect than the final demand level (28%) from 1999 to 2014. Therefore, global cooperation, through the mitigation strategies of reducing emission factors and improving international trade patterns, is posited as an efficient strategy to reduce PAH pollution and related health risks.

Regional responses to macroeconomic and regional policy in Poland

PurposeThe purpose of this paper is to investigate regional impact of macroeconomic and regional policy impulses, using our newly developed multi-regional computable general equilibrium (CGE) model for three, structurally distinctive Polish macro-regions.Design/methodology/approachIn this study, we build an interregional social accounting matrix for Poland and use it to develop a small scale, three-region CGE model, reflecting the size of regional economies and cross-regional differences in industrial structures, while also explicitly accounting for the dynamics of main economic relationships across regions, such as interregional flows in commodities, labor and capital. The model is subsequently use to simulate regional effects of various policy impulses.FindingsWe demonstrate important cross-regional differences in the transmission mechanism of macro-level policies, which either affect regional output and its individual components (as in the case of imposing shocks to VAT or PIT rates) or are limited to the components, while preserving a rather uniform impact on output (as in the case of imposing shocks to wages). Furthermore, we contribute to the regional policy equity-efficiency trade-off debate, by illustrating quantitatively how, due to structural differences, spatially targeted expenditure measures might promote either regional convergence or aggregate output growth at the country-level.Originality/valuePrior to our study, regional CGE models have not been used to simulate spatial distribution of aggregate shocks in Poland or in any other CEE country. Another originality of our study lies in comprehensive evaluation of various policy impulses, from the perspective of their impact on the respective region, spillovers to the other regions and its overall, country-level effect.

Revealing the structures of internal migration: A distance and a time-space behaviour perspectives

Internal migration is an important process investigated by spatial and regional sciences. When intensive, it can significantly change settlement and regional systems. The paper reveals the structures of internal migration based particularly on distance of movements and partly on their motivations. In order to distinguish between short and long distance migration based on informed decision and not on ad hoc threshold (estimate) we employ (i) the concept of the time geography as behavioural framework, (ii) the concept of daily urban (spatial) systems as spatial framework, and (iii) the concept of (sub)urbanisation as theoretical framework. The results are based on the combination of these three concepts, together with the quantitative analysis of statistically recorded internal migration in the Czech Republic (length of movements and their motivations). The daily urban system of the city of Olomouc (the Czech Republic) is further analysed using the time geographic approach and time use diaries of individuals. The analysis of internal migration in the Czech Republic showed us that short distance migration was defined by 50 km upper distance limit, by other motivations than employment, by intra-regional rather than inter-regional flows, and by the existence of areal overlap of activity time spaces before and after the move was completed. Patterns of time-space behaviour for urban and rural (suburban) population sample in the daily urban system of Olomouc have been generalised and two basic types of time space existence of individuals identified: radial for urban population and circular for rural (suburban) population.

Hospital Patients’ migration among Italian Regions

Abstract Background At the beginning of the 2000s the federalization of the Italian National Health Service gave to the Regions greater financial and political responsibility: 21 Regional Health Services were set up with administrative and planning independence. They are in a potential competitive regime, since the citizens are free to choose their place of treatment. The aim of our research was to analyze fulfillment of needs for hospital services on site and Patients' migration to hospitals of other Regions. Methods We conducted an observational cross sectional study on Hospital Discharge Cards provided by the Ministry of Health, upon specific request, from 2013 to 2017. The subjects of the analysis (catchment areas) were the hospital networks of Italian Regions. Interregional flows were carried out from data of Residents, Attractions and Escapes, which were developed through Attraction and Escape Indexes. Graphic representation was produced with Gandy's Nomogram. Results In the studied period, we observed an important decrease in hospitalizations and a simultaneous increase in interregional mobility. At the same time, admissions to hospital managed by Local Health Authorities and to Private Clinics increased. According to the Major Diagnostic Categories the main causes of hospitalizations in mobility were Musculoskeletal System And Connective Tissue Diseases (MDC 8), Cardiovascular System Diseases (MDC 5), Nervous System Diseases (MDC 1) and Digestive System Diseases (MDC 6). There were discrepancies between the Regions of Northern/Central Italy (higher Attraction Indexes) and Southern Italy (higher Escape Indexes). According to Gandy's Nomogram only nine Regions showed a good public hospital planning: Lombardy, A.P. of Bolzano, Veneto, Friuli V.G., E. Romagna, Tuscany, Umbria, Latium and Molise. Conclusions The North/Centre Regions have a public hospital planning able to be better to meet the care needs of their citizens and to attract Patients than the South ones. Key messages The study of Patients’ mobility is relevant in order to evaluate equity and quality of care provided by different Italian Regions. Patients' mobility has also an important economic implications.

ТРАНСФОРМАЦИЯ СОЦИАЛЬНО-ЭКОНОМИЧЕСКОГО КАРКАСА РЕСПУБЛИКИ БАШКОРТОСТАН

The author has analyzed the transformation of industrial, agricultural, tourist and recreational frameworks and the framework of settlement of the Republic of Bashkortostan over the past 10 years. The analysis showed that the major urban districts the core of the region's agglomerations are the supporting framework of the region. Agglomerations concentrate the bulk of industrial production, investments, and jobs in the region. At the same time, the formation of agglomerations is an objective trend in the transformation of the settlement system of the Republic of Bashkortostan, associated with intraregional and interregional flows of the population “village administrative center - city”. In four agglomerations of the republic (Ufa, South Bashkortostan, OktyabrskoTuimazinskaya and Neftekamskaya), almost 2/3 of the region's population lives in 2019 (62.1% (in 2006 - 57.9%)), including The Ufa agglomeration is 36.5% (in 2006 - 32.7%). In addition, agglomeration processes led to a change in the volume of construction in three municipal districts, on the territories of which the four largest urban districts of the region are located: Ufa, Sterlitamak, Salavat, Oktyabrsky. In total, the share of these three districts in the total volume of housing commissioned in the municipal districts of the region has grown from 20% to 30% over the past 10 years. The agricultural framework of the region is also moving towards agglomerations, forming an agricultural zone around them. Peripheral and depressive zones, despite the implementation of development programs in them, do not get out of the crisis, but gradually use additional development opportunities (for example, the activation of the tourism potential of the Trans-Urals republic). At the same time, in any case, these territories remain areas of special risk as a result of the pulling together of human and other resources both to the center of the region and to neighboring subjects of the federation.

Gross regional product: study of influencers

The relevance of the research topic is determined by special attention to issues of regional development in the state policy of the Republic of Belarus, the quality of life of 78.6% of the country's population depends on the level of development of the regions under study. The problem of regional development is the growing imbalances in development between the regions of the country and, as a result, undesirable interregional migration flows of the population and a reduction in the demographic potential of a number of territories, as well as the emergence of signs of depression in a number of areas. The analysis of recent publications makes it possible to verify an ongoing interest in the issue, but the drawback of most studies is the disclosure of the issue within one particular region, or the study of the growth of grp due to conventional factors. According to the authors, until the end of the unexplored, the dependence of the gross regional product on indirect, implicit factors remains. Particular attention is drawn to the author's indicators and their place in the GRP growth model. The aim of the study is to establish the influence of unconditional and indirect factors on the magnitude and dynamics of gross regional product, which will provide an opportunity to formalize the dependence of grp on these factors and subsequently apply the built model in practice. The study methods used in the work are comparison, grouping, correlation-regression analysis, econometric modeling, and a systemic approach. Results of work. The present study considers a set of indicators for six regions of the republic of belarus for the period from 2013 to 2019. Using econometric methods of analysis, the authors built a regression model of the dependence of grp per capita on four exogenous variables, analyzed the degree of influence of these variables and the possibility of impact on them by the state. The area of application of the study results is state policy aimed at the sustainable growth of the economies of the regions. Conclusions. In the constructed model of four exogenous variables, the unemployment rate and the rate of life of the population are most significant. However, according to the authors, in order to achieve the desired level of gross regional product, it is necessary to have a comprehensive impact on all variable models, among which, in descending order of importance, the level of unemployment, the rate of life of the population, the amount of industrial production per person employed in the economy, investment in fixed assets.

The impact of officials’ turnover on interregional capital flows: evidence from China

ABSTRACT Using data on the turnover of provincial Party secretary and interregional capital flows in China, this paper investigates the impact of officials’ turnover on capital flows. We find that there are fewer capitals inflowing into the province during the year with officials’ turnover, and it persists after considering selection bias and multiple robustness checks. When the outgoing officials have longer tenures or are not promoted and the new officials are non-native-born, the effect is larger. The impact of officials’ turnover is more pronounced in provinces with lower investor protection, lower corruption level or more non-state economy. Finally, officials’ turnover can decrease capital formation through reducing capital flows.

The Role of Transport Infrastructure in Development of Border Region

Social and economic development of regions is closely connected with transport industry functioning, which was proven by numerous academic works. However, the problem of transport infrastructure importance for border regions was actually neglected. In fact transport on state periphery plays an important role in regional development and in some cases becomes a key factor of realizing foreign-economic potential. This article on the basis of functional approach to the research object describes an attempt to substantiate the role of transport infrastructure in the development of border region through identifying its foreign-economic function. The essence of this function implies the capacity of transport infrastructure to build in-regional and inter-regional flows of goods, services and people travel and at the same time to carry out operations of international exchange of goods. The importance of infrastructure for border regions is demonstrated by dynamics of indicators of railway construction and investment into fixed funds of transport industry: growth rates of these indicators are much higher for border regions in comparison with internal regions. It proves the importance of intensive development of transport on border territories to provide integrity of the country and to realize the potential of foreign-economic links.

Interregional flows of multiple ecosystem services through global trade in wild species

Ecosystem services flow interregionally between sending and receiving regions and their consumption can have impacts on ecosystems in distant regions. Global trade of wild species comprises a multitude of ecosystem services. We identify ecosystem service flows provided by traded species and delineate main sending and receiving regions through species range maps, based on bilateral trade entries in the database of CITES (Convention on International Trade in Endangered Species of Wild Fauna and Flora) from 2014 to 2018. We found that 65% of species represent the service class ‘Science’ (1378 species), 14% ‘Decoration and Pets’ (293), 9% ‘Entertainment’ (188), 4.7% ‘Conservation’ (96), 4.6% ‘Education’ (95) and 2.7% ‘Medicine’ (54). Sending regions are predominantly located in the ‘global South’ and receiving regions in the ‘global North’. Of the traded species 12.3% are threatened and 83.9% may become so without regulation. Of the main sending regions 24.1% are protected. Results show that main sending and main receiving regions differ depending on the ecosystem service. By linking actual trade data from CITES with different types of services, traded service-providing species can be directly assigned to service classes. Through the novel approach of identifying sending regions based on species-specific range maps, the study enables spatial analyses down to a 100x100km scale within countries and regions globally for more targeted conservation actions.

How does Cross-regional Supply Chain Function in the Global Auto Manufacturing

This paper presents a study on the inter-regional supply chain which helps company to manage the flow of components among regions of affiliate’s and Joint Ventures. Using a type of mode named as IRF (Inter-Regional Flow), the company will be able to create simplified supply chain network and reduce complexity for operation. Other resulting advantages include centralization of capacity management, utilization of sharing of parts from common and modified supplier tooling, and reduction of logistic and manpower cost for the receiving region in purchasing, manufacturing and supply chain management.

Construction of multiregion–multisector input–output tables: a spatial econometric approach for Poland

ABSTRACT This paper investigates the application of spatial econometrics in estimating the interregional flow matrix in multisector–multiregion input–output tables. With reasonable assumptions, it demonstrates that this application can be formulated as a modified multi-equation spatial Durbin model with missing parameters estimated via maximum likelihood. The statistical performance of the model is scrutinized and the method is illustrated using regional (NUTS-3-level) economic impact assessment simulations for Poland. The proposed non-survey method empirically built on sectoral–regional data on economic activity is widely replicable across countries with promising performance against widespread benchmarks.

Exploring global interregional food system's sustainability using the functional regions typology

Maintaining food security and environmental integrity over time requires a transition towards sustainable food systems. This paper analyzes different dimensions of national food supply sustainability on a global scale. By focusing on four food staples: wheat, rice, maize, and soybeans, the analysis identifies production regions that are more or less environmentally sustainable. It explores the dependence of different countries on calories supplied by these regions. These four staples' production requires 648 million hectares of cropland and about 559 cubic kilometers of irrigation water. It also leads to several environmental impacts, including potential soil loss and species loss. Yet, these impacts and pressures are spread unevenly across agricultural systems.We find that over one-third of the global calorie intake originates from regions with a high per ton environmental impacts. Although most consumed calories are from domestic sources, traded calories mostly originate from environmentally suitable production regions, increasing importing countries' food supply sustainability. This analysis also reveals interregional tradeoffs, where food imports into one region (increased food provision) is associated with high environmental impact in production regions. Further, this typology allows identifying an elusive, often overlooked interregional connection. That is the potential loss of future ecosystem service flow from countries with the lower gross domestic product per capita and high biodiversity. To date, those countries rely primarily on domestic staple production, which puts pressure on vulnerable local ecosystems. Species loss in those regions reduces the potential future interregional flows of genetic material. Alternatively, conservation combined with food imports can maintain diversity and the potential flow of genetic material from those regions. The functional regions typology provides a complete assessment of the interregional connections that make up the global food system. Therefore, it is useful for informing policy analysts and policymakers of a broader collection of stakeholders regarding the local environment. It also provides essential information about the suitability of different policy mechanisms to govern interregional systems. Future research shall expand the functional regions' typology to include additional environmental and human-related (e.g., technological), to cover more crops, and to account for other food categories, such as meat.