Forecasting interregional youth migration flows

Abstract

Subject. This article deals with the issues of youth migration, reproduction processes and the potential for the future socio-economic development of areas. Objectives. The article aims to develop a cellular automata model for the medium-term prediction of inter-regional youth migration flows of the 15–19 age cohort. Methods. For the study, we used a statistical analysis and the cellular automata theory. Results. The article presents a probabilistic cellular automata model with rectangular grids of cells without borders, where the number of cells coincides with the 15–19 age cohort number in the respective area. The article also proposes an author-developed cross-platform program in the Go programming language that helps make medium-term forecasts. Conclusions. The cellular automata allow for integrating various patterns of migratory behavior into a general model of area migration flow, and choosing the most adequate patterns of migratory behavior for various age and social groups of migrants.