Migration Intensity Research Articles

Competitiveness of higher education systems: Exploring the role of migration flow

Intellectual capital is one of the most crucial determinants of long-term economic development. The countries compete for highly skilled labor and talented youth. State regulatory interventions aim to, on the one hand, facilitate the retention of foreign high-productivity intellectual capital in the host country, transforming ‘educational’ and ‘scientific’ migrants into residents, and on the other hand, prevent the outflow of their own qualified workforce. The paper aims to outline the role of the nation’s higher education system in the influx and outflow of labor resources. A two-stage approach is applied: 1) maximum likelihood—to cluster the EU countries and the potential candidates to become members of EU countries based on the integrated competitiveness of their higher education systems, considering quantitative, qualitative, and internationalization aspects; 2) logit and probit models—to estimate the likelihood of net migration flow surpassing baseline cluster levels and the probability of migration intensity changes for each cluster. Empirical findings allow the identification of four country clusters. Forecasts indicate the highest likelihood of increased net migration flow in the second cluster (66.7%) and a significant likelihood in the third cluster (23.4%). However, the likelihood of such an increase is statistically insignificant for countries in the first and fourth clusters. The conclusions emphasize the need for regulatory interventions that enhance higher education quality, ensure equal access for migrants, foster population literacy, and facilitate lifelong learning. Such measures are imperative to safeguard the nation’s intellectual potential and deter labor emigration.

Nighthawk: Acoustic monitoring of nocturnal bird migration in the Americas

Abstract Animal migration is one of nature's most spectacular phenomena, but migratory animals and their journeys are imperilled across the globe. Migratory birds are among the most well‐studied animals on Earth, yet relatively little is known about in‐flight behaviour during nocturnal migration. Because many migrating bird species vocalize during flight, passive acoustic monitoring shows great promise for facilitating widespread monitoring of bird migration. Here, we present Nighthawk, a deep learning model designed to detect and identify the vocalizations of nocturnally migrating birds. We trained Nighthawk on the in‐flight vocalizations of migratory birds using a diverse dataset of recordings from across the Americas. Our results demonstrate that Nighthawk performs well as a nocturnal flight call detector and classifier for dozens of avian taxa, both at the species level and for broader taxonomic groups (e.g. orders and families). It achieves an average precision score above 0.80 for 50 species and a mean average precision of 0.96 across 4 orders. The model accurately quantified nightly nocturnal migration intensity (80% variation explained) and species phenology (78% variation explained) and performed well on data from across North America. Incorporating modest amounts of additional annotated audio (50–120 h) into model training yielded high performance on target datasets from both North and South America (average precision on order Passeriformes >0.99). By monitoring the vocalizations of actively migrating birds, Nighthawk provides a detailed window onto nocturnal bird migration that is not presently attainable by other means (e.g. radar or citizen science). Scientists, managers and practitioners could use acoustic monitoring with Nighthawk for a number of applications, including: monitoring migration passage at wind farms; studying airspace usage during migratory flights; monitoring the changing migrations of species susceptible to climate change; and revealing previously unknown migration routes and behaviours. Overall, this work will empower diverse stakeholders to efficiently monitor migrating birds across the Western Hemisphere and collect data in aid of science and conservation.

Migration, proliferation and cell death of regenerating liver macrophages in an experimental model

Relevance . Macrophages are the leading regulatory cell-lineage taking part in reparative processes in mammals, and the liver is no exception. The ratio of monocyte migration, proliferation and death of macrophages during liver regeneration requires further studies. The aim was to quantify the intensity of monocyte migration, cell proliferation and apoptosis of resident liver macrophages after its 70 % resection in a mouse model. Materials and Methods. We performed 70 % liver resection in sexually mature male BalbC mice. Cells of liver monocyte-macrophage system were obtained by magnetic sorting by marker F4/80. The immunophenotype of the isolated cells was further studied by cytofluorimetry, the level of proliferation and cell death, the content of cyclins and P53 was determined by western blot. Results and Discussion . It was found that after partial hepatectomy there is a marked migration of monocytes/macrophages positive for Ly6C and CD11b markers to the liver, the migration process starts already in the first day after the operation. On the same terms there is a rise in proliferative activity of macrophages, established by Ki67 marker, the peak of proliferation - 3 days after partial hepatectomy. A significant increase in the number of dying macrophages was found early after liver resection. Conclusion . The obtained data indicate that liver regeneration in mammals on the model in mice is accompanied by proliferation migration and cell death of macrophages. Taking into account the immunophenotype of macrophages, we can conclude that Ly6C+ blood monocytes migrate to the liver, and resident macrophages participate in proliferation. The obtained data confirm the universality of the course of reparative processes in mammals.

Insights into Daily Dynamics of Fish Migration during Spring in the Konda River

Hydrology and temperature are known as key drivers for fish migration in floodplain-channel systems of large rivers. The Lower Irtysh contains valuable species of whitefish and sturgeon. Thus, along the Konda River, a complex study was carried out in order to investigate fish migration in spring, with a focus on daily and monthly dynamics. To estimate the number of fish passing up- and downstream, a hydroacoustic system with a scanning beam frequency of 455 kHz was deployed in May 2017. The survey revealed the presence of three peaks in migration activity, as well as differences between a location close to the shore and another in the main channel. Regression analysis revealed a high degree of reliability of the influence of water temperature on the number of migrating fish (p < 0.001). The dataset also showed a daily rhythm of fish migration. An analysis of the daily variation in the illumination index and the intensity of fish migration revealed the presence of noticeable and high correlations for upstream (RS = 0.55; p < 0.05) and downstream migration (RS = 0.71; p < 0.001), respectively. Our data underline the importance of temperature as a trigger for fish migration and reveal diurnal patterns related to illumination.

A mechanistic marker-based screening tool to predict clinical immunogenicity of biologics

BackgroundThe efficacy and safety of therapeutic proteins are undermined by immunogenicity driven by anti-drug antibodies. Immunogenicity risk assessment is critically necessary during drug development, but current methods lack predictive power and mechanistic insight into antigen uptake and processing leading to immune response. A key mechanistic step in T-cell-dependent immune responses is the migration of mature dendritic cells to T-cell areas of lymphoid compartments, and this phenomenon is most pronounced in the immune response toward subcutaneously delivered proteins.MethodsThe migratory potential of monocyte-derived dendritic cells is proposed to be a mechanistic marker for immunogenicity screening. Following exposure to therapeutic protein in vitro, dendritic cells are analyzed for changes in activation markers (CD40 and IL-12) in combination with levels of the chemokine receptor CXCR4 to represent migratory potential. Then a transwell assay captures the intensity of dendritic cell migration in the presence of a gradient of therapeutic protein and chemokine ligands.ResultsHere, we show that an increased ability of the therapeutic protein to induce dendritic cell migration along a gradient of chemokine CCL21 and CXCL12 predicts higher immunogenic potential. Expression of the chemokine receptor CXCR4 on human monocyte-derived dendritic cells, in combination with activation markers CD40 and IL-12, strongly correlates with clinical anti-drug antibody incidence.ConclusionsMechanistic understanding of processes driving immunogenicity led to the development of a predictive tool for immunogenicity risk assessment of therapeutic proteins. These predictive markers could be adapted for immunogenicity screening of other biological modalities.

Internal migration from and to municipalities in Slovakia with the highest proportion of people living in Roma settlements

The municipalities in Slovakia in which the majority of people live in Roma settlements are characterised by several specific features. However, only limited attention has been paid to the process of migration and especially internal migration. The main goal of this article is the analysis of internal migration in selected municipalities with the highest proportion (more than 80%) of people living in Roma settlements. We tried to identify both the total volume and intensity of internal migration from and to the analysed municipalities, along with the available structural characteristics of the persons who changed their permanent residence. The results we obtained confirmed lower migration dynamics in these municipalities. We also found that economic factors do not play a significant role in migration within Slovakia. The most important reasons for migration were housing, for younger people following a family member who migrated, and, in older age groups, health reasons, especially in the case of emigrants. Factors behind the younger age of migrants from and to these municipalities include the fact that these migrants tend to complete education and begin some family transitions (childbearing, marriage) earlier than the majority population. Higher chances of migration were confirmed for more educated persons and, except among younger people, for people who not married. The results also confirmed the relatively narrow geographical area in which migration occurs, with most moves taking place over a short distance.

Dynamics and implications of the age profiles of inter-provincial migration in China

AbstractThis research examines the shifts in age profiles among migrants in China, utilizing microdata derived from four national censuses and two 1% population sample surveys conducted since 1990. Our findings indicate: (1) there has been a surge in age-specific migration intensity across all age groups over the past two decades; (2) the age profiles of the flow floating population differ from both the entire and the residual migrant populations; and (3) the age profiles of China's flow floating population exhibit a blend of Asian and Western patterns—a prevalence among individuals in their early 20s, typical of Asian patterns, and a broad range of ages post-peak, indicative of Western patterns. Consequently, we propose that future population projections prioritize the flow floating population over the traditionally employed entire floating population. Furthermore, recognizing heterogeneity is critical for accurately understanding migrants in China, necessitating a comprehensive migration policy that safeguards the rights and welfare of these individuals.

Issues of determining the effects of migration on population growth in Ulaanbaatar

Since Mongolia's transition to a market economy in the 1990s, the “Great Migration” from rural to urban areas due to job shortages and natural disasters (droughts and dzud - disaster affecting livestock caused by severe natural conditions) in rural areas has continued. Many of these in-migrants have settled in large cities and their suburbs, especially in Ulaanbaatar, leading to many problems, including environmental pollution, traffic congestion, and overcrowding of social services. In addition, a number of studies have been conducted in Mongolia about the types of internal migration, factors influencing it, causes, characteristics of migrants, consequences and vulnerabilities. However, there is a lack of research about population location, density, settlement and their changes due to migration, especially the urban-rural population ratio, urban population growth and the impact of migration on it. Therefore, the main purpose of this study is to analyze the main indicators of population migration in Ulaanbaatar, to determine its impact on population growth, to evaluate and to determine future trend. Within the framework of the study, spatial and statistical analysis of data and materials of the last 30 years (1990-2019) of the main population indicators of Ulaanbaatar was conducted and future trend was determined based on the population projections. According to the research results, in-migrants were always dominant in Ulaanbaatar from 1990 to 2019, and the intensity of migration generally increased in the years following droughts and dzuds. In addition, a total of 663.1 thousand people migrated to Ulaanbaatar from aimags and rural areas over the last 30 years, which is equal to 45.2 percent of the total population of Ulaanbaatar in 2019. As a result, urban population of Mongolia counted 2,212.9 thousand in 2020, and the urbanization rate reached 68.0 percent, of which 67.7 percent is concentrated in Ulaanbaatar alone. Between 2000 and 2009, 47.4 percent of the total in-migrants (1990-2019) or 314.5 thousand people moved to Ulaanbaatar, which was the peak of migration to Ulaanbaatar. From a population perspective, Ulaanbaatar's population is expected to reach 2.5 million or the equivalent of 50.5 percent of the total population of the country in 2050. In order to reduce overcrowding in Ulaanbaatar, it is necessary, in the future, to reduce inland migration from rual areas to Ulaanbaatar, reduce the gap between urban and rural development levels, support and develop regional development cities, and diversify settlements system.

A novel approach for evaluating the transport capacity of sandstone carriers and determining effective hydrocarbon migration channels: Application to the Pinghu Slope Belt of the Xihu Depression, East China Sea Basin

Preferential hydrocarbon migration pathways are of great significance to reveal and predict large-scale hydrocarbon accumulation. However, hydrocarbon migration within heterogeneous sandstone carriers is highly complex and involves geological and technical uncertainties. In this study, the hydrocarbon flow coefficient (Chf) considering the sandstone heterogeneity and fluid properties was first defined to quantify the seepage performance of sandstone carriers using experimental, geological and geophysical techniques. Through two-dimensional numerical simulation, the hydrocarbon convergence coefficient (Chc) was proposed to characterize the differential hydrocarbon convergence controlled by structural morphology. These two parameters were then integrated into the hydrocarbon transport coefficient (Cht) to comprehensively evaluate the hydrocarbon transport capacity of sandstone carrier, and finally combined with the charging conditions to determine the effective migration channels. The Pinghu Formation in the Pinghu slope belt of Xihu Depression, East China Sea Basin, characterized by large-scale lateral migration of hydrocarbons, is selected as a case study. The results demonstrate that only sandstone carriers with Cht values greater than 10 cm2/s and extensive contact with mature source rocks can serve as effective migration channels. In the effective channels with insufficient hydrocarbon supply, the migration intensity decreases rapidly and only small-scale hydrocarbon migration occurs, while the effective channels with sufficient hydrocarbon supply are accompanied by large-scale hydrocarbon occurrence and the migration intensity weakens slowly. Consequently, three effective channels conducive to hydrocarbon migration were determined in the sandstone carrier units of Pinghu Formation. The quantitative method in this study can be used to predict preferential hydrocarbon migration pathways and reduce exploration risks.

Combining methane clumped and bulk isotopes, temporal variations in molecular and isotopic composition, and hydrochemical and geological proxies to understand methane's origin in the Ronda peridotite massifs (Spain)

In serpentinised peridotite and ultramafic rock systems, methane (CH4) origin is frequently considered abiotic, but variable microbial and thermogenic components can also exist. Typically, the origin of CH4 is studied using bulk, 13C/12C and 2H/H isotopic composition, molecular gas composition, occasionally radiocarbon (14C), microbiology and geological context. Recent advances in CH4-clumped isotope methods have yielded novel insights into the formation of CH4: nonetheless, their interpretation in natural gas samples is often uncertain and requires additional research. Here, we study the origin of the gas released in hyperalkaline (pH > 10) springs in the Ronda Peridotite Massifs (southern Spain), combining bulk and clumped CH4 isotopes with molecular gas composition, hydrochemical (Total Organic Carbon and Platinum Group Elements in water), geothermal and geo-structural data. Five springs analysed in 2014 have been re-examined for changes in gas chemistry over time, and three newly discovered gas-bearing springs are analysed for the first time. Regardless of whether springs have microbial or abiotic isotopic fingerprints, we find that bulk CH4 isotopes are fairly stable over a seven-year period. This suggests that the CH4 source(s) or postgenetic processes (such as oxidation and diffusion) have not undergone significant temporal changes. Major variations in H2 and CH4 concentrations in certain springs may be the result of changes in gas pressure and migration intensity. Paired CH4 clumped isotopes (Δ12CH2D2 - Δ13CH3D) were analysed in two bubbling springs, where the presence of CH4 can be interpreted as non-microbial based on 13C enrichment, absence of 14C, and the presence of ethane and propane. However, these isotopes are in disequilibrium, which prevents the quantification of the gas formation temperature. Within the Δ12CH2D2 - Δ13CH3D diagram, the data lie within both the microbialgenic zone, suggested by previous authors, and the abiotic zone that results combining data from laboratory gas synthesis and other natural gas samples. Therefore, attributing a microbial origin to CH4 based only on clumped isotopes is less definite than previously assumed. The amount of Total Organic Carbon appears to be correlated with the origin of CH4, as it is higher in 13C-depleted CH4 samples and lower in 13C-enriched samples. Palladium (Pd) and Rhodium (Rh) dissolved in water (the more soluble Platinum Group Elements) can be a proxy for the chromitite ore deposits contained in plagioclase tectonite layers throughout the investigated area, which may act as catalysts for abiotic CO2 hydrogenation. Clumped isotope disequilibrium and the reported absence of diffuse CH4-bearing fluid inclusions in the peridotites appear to rule out high temperature gas genesis in post-magmatic inclusions. These observations, along with the moderate temperatures at the base of the peridotite massifs and the consistent occurrence of gas along tectonic contacts between serpentinised (H2-bearing) peridotite and carbon-bearing rocks, are compatible with the theory of low-temperature CO2 hydrogenation.

Space weather disrupts nocturnal bird migration

Space weather, including solar storms, can impact Earth by disturbing the geomagnetic field. Despite the known dependence of birds and other animals on geomagnetic cues for successful seasonal migrations, the potential effects of space weather on organisms that use Earth's magnetic field for navigation have received little study. We tested whether space weather geomagnetic disturbances are associated with disruptions to bird migration at a macroecological scale. We leveraged long-term radar data to characterize the nightly migration dynamics of the nocturnally migrating North American avifauna over 22 y. We then used concurrent magnetometer data to develop a local magnetic disturbance index associated with each radar station (ΔBmax), facilitating spatiotemporally explicit analyses of the relationship between migration and geomagnetic disturbance. After controlling for effects of atmospheric weather and spatiotemporal patterns, we found a 9 to 17% decrease in migration intensity in both spring and fall during severe space weather events. During fall migration, we also found evidence for decreases in effort flying against the wind, which may represent a depression of active navigation such that birds drift more with the wind during geomagnetic disturbances. Effort flying against the wind in the fall was most reduced under both overcast conditions and high geomagnetic disturbance, suggesting that a combination of obscured celestial cues and magnetic disturbance may disrupt navigation. Collectively, our results provide evidence for community-wide avifaunal responses to geomagnetic disturbances driven by space weather during nocturnal migration.

Komparativna analiza tranzicijskih demografskih procesa Ukrajine i Hrvatske i recentni izbjeglički valovi

The comparative analysis established the similarity of the demographic transition processes in Ukraine and Croatia as a consequence of the specific historical, social and economic conditions of development within the former state communities. Consideration of post-transition characteristics and demographic heritage confirmed the comparability of modern demographic characteristics and processes of these two countries. The recent geopolitical situation in Eastern Europe related to the Russian aggression on Ukraine has caused intensified forced relocations of the population in Ukraine and Europe in the context of exile and refugee movements. The main sources of migration waves, the directions and intensity of certain forms of forced (war) migration to and from the territory of Ukraine are defined. In addition to the increased spatial mobility of the population (both internal and external) and direct demographic losses, other demographic consequences will be visible with a delayed effect, and after the end of the war in Ukraine.

A surname-based index of migration intensity and its application in China

A surname-based index of migration intensity and its application in China

A multi-sensor array for detecting and analyzing nocturnal avian migration.

Avian migration has fascinated humans for centuries. Insights into the lives of migrant birds are often elusive; however, recent, standalone technological innovations have revolutionized our understanding of this complex biological phenomenon. A future challenge for following these highly mobile animals is the necessity of bringing multiple technologies together to capture a more complete understanding of their movements. Here, we designed a proof-of-concept multi-sensor array consisting of two weather surveillance radars (WSRs), one local and one regional, an autonomous moon-watching sensor capable of detecting birds flying in front of the moon, and an autonomous recording unit (ARU) capable of recording avian nocturnal flight calls. We deployed this array at a field site in central Oklahoma on select nights in March, April, and May of 2021 and integrated data from this array with wind data corresponding to this site to examine the influence of wind on the movements of spring migrants aloft across these spring nights. We found that regional avian migration intensity is statistically significantly negatively correlated with wind velocity, in line with previous research. Furthermore, we found evidence suggesting that when faced with strong, southerly winds, migrants take advantage of these conditions by adjusting their flight direction by drifting. Importantly, we found that most of the migration intensities detected by the sensors were intercorrelated, except when this correlation could not be ascertained because we lacked the sample size to do so. This study demonstrates the potential for multi-sensor arrays to reveal the detailed ways in which avian migrants move in response to changing atmospheric conditions while in flight.

Особенности миграционных процессов Республики Коми: 1990–2020 годы

The northern regions of our country are characterized by a significant migration decline. The Komi Republic stands out among them with the highest values of indicators of migration outflow of the population. Operating with statistical data, the article analyzes the migration processes of the Komi Republic for the period from 1990 to 2020. The purpose of the study is to identify the features of migration in the region, depending on its direction and period. The article presents the results of the analysis of migration turnover, the specifics of migration flows of internal and interregional migration, as well as the dynamics of migration exchange between urban and rural territories. According to the re¬sults, it was found that internal migration flows are directed to the capital of the region, acting as a socio-economic and educational center. The largest outflow of population is char¬acteristic of cities whose economic specialization has now lost relevance. Migration within the region is characterized by an influx of population from rural areas to the city, and the share of the village in interregional migration is significantly inferior to the city. Despite the continuing migration decline of the population, the intensity of migration is decreasing by 2020, due to a decrease in the number of both departures and arrivals, the difference between migration from the city and from the countryside is decreasing.

Biological indicators and traceability of the origin of Russian sturgeon juveniles in the lower reaches of the Volga River and the north- western part of the Caspian Sea

The aim of the work: characterization of juveniles released from sturgeon hatcheries into the natural habitat with individual identification of individuals. Methods: Ichthyological researches in the Volga River and its watercourses were surveyed using a 4.5 m fry trawl; in the western part of the Northern Caspian, a trawl survey was carried out using a 9 m trawl and the developed grid of stations, adjusted to take into account the sea level decrease. The trophological material was processed by the quantitative-weight method, followed by the calculation of private and general indices of the filling of the digestive tracts. Molecular genetic methods for the analysis of microsatellite loci and sequencing of a fragment of the control region of mitochondrial DNA were used. Novelty: the origin of the Russian sturgeon and the contribution of artificial reproduction from Russian sturgeon hatcheries to the Volga- Caspian fishery basin were determined by molecular genetic methods. Results: The composition of food organisms and the degree of fattening of Russian sturgeon juveniles after their migration to the sea were determined. The contribution of artificial reproduction from Russian sturgeon hatcheries to the replenishment of the Russian sturgeon population of the Volga- Caspian basin in the period 2016–2021 for fingerlings was averaged 80 %. Practical significance: The intensity of downstream migration in the Volga River and its watercourses of juveniles released from sturgeon hatcheries was studied. The presented data was made it possible to determine the main localization sites of Russian sturgeon juveniles depending on the species composition and abundance of food organisms in the northwestern part of the Caspian Sea. Based on the results of genotyping of spawners at sturgeon hatcheries and juveniles caught in the Northern Caspian, an assessment was made of the effectiveness of the work of the sturgeon hatcheries in 2016–2021.

Biological Diversity of Sula River (Ukraine) Under Different Hydrological Conditions

Abstract Hydrobiological research of the main components of the biota of the lower reaches of the Sula River was conducted. The river flows into the Kremenchutsk Reservoir. Zoobenthos, zooperiphyton, vascular water plants, and ichthyofauna in lotic and lentic microbiotopes were studied. Species and communities of protected status were stated. It was shown, that a significant share (about 30%) consists of rheophilic species. 28 species of fish were registered in the studied area, of which eight are invasive species and 10 are under protection. The biotopic distribution of different fish species, and the intensity of the downstream migration of juvenile fishes in spatial, temporal, and species aspects were estimated. It was identified, that about 12 million young fish migrate from the researched part of the Sula River to the Kremenchuk reservoir during the season.

Carbonyl compounds as contaminants migrating from the ecological vessels to food

The study examined the effects of organic vessels and cutlery on food quality. Low-molecular carbonyl compounds were treated as markers of undesirable changes. Migration tests were carried out at ambient and high temperatures for different times. The substitutes of food simulants A and B were pure water and acidified water, respectively. The analyze also was conducted using 20% ethanol (food simulant C). The effect of microwave radiation on migration intensity was also examined. Gas chromatography coupled to an electron capture detector (GC-ECD) and derivatization were used for determination of analytes at low concentration levels (ng/l). In general, a proportional relationship was observed between the contact time of the vessel with the simulant and the total concentration of identified carbonyl compounds. Acidic foods may be more contaminated with carbonyls than pH-neutral foods. Microwave heating can change the migration intensity of acetaldehyde and acetone. Sensory and instrumental analysis (GCxGC-TOF/MS) showed that some aldehydes migrating from dishes can affect the sensory properties of food.

The analysis and solution for intercity travel behaviors during holidays in the post-epidemic era based on big data.

The COVID-19 had a huge impact on the transportation industry. In the post-epidemic stage, intercity transportation will face great challenges as places are unsealed, tourism and other service industries begin to recover, and residents' travel demand gradually increases. An in-depth study of residents' intercity travel behavior during holidays in the post-epidemic era will help restore public trust in public transportation and improve the quality of public transportation services. Based on traditional research on ways of travelling, the study adopted the Complex Network Analysis Theory. The city clusters of Shandong Peninsula were taken as the research region. The research studied the impact of the differences in regional attributes of the cities in Shandong Peninsula on residents' intercity travel in the post-epidemic times. A dynamic evolution model of how residents choose to travel was built to simulate the changes to their ways of traveling in the post-epidemic era under two conditions, which are: traveling under the government's supervision of intercity travel and traveling under the government's optimization of intercity travel conditions. The conclusions drawn from the analyses of Complex Network Theory and Evolutionary Game Theory are as follows. First, in the holiday intercity travel in the post-epidemic times, the neighboring cities of Shandong Peninsula are closely connected, thus traveling between neighboring cities dominates intercity travel. Second, the travel network concentration of residents on long-term holidays is lower than that on short-term holidays, and the migration intensity of residents is higher than that on short-term holidays, while the willingness of residents' migration on short-term holidays is higher than that on long-term holidays. The willingness to migrate on holidays is generally lower than that before the epidemic. Third, in a normal intercity travel network, the travel between two cities with medium and long distances is mainly by public transport. However, the dominance of public transport will be affected under the impact of the epidemic. In short-distance travel between two cities, private transport is in an advantageous position, and under the impact of the epidemic, this advantage will become more significant. The government can improve the position of public transport in short-distance travel by making optimizations.

A Decision Support System for Internal Migration Policy-Making

This paper proposes a decision support system for internal migration policy in the Republic of Serbia, which uses machine learning and knowledge extraction methods to analyze data and identify key features for policy decision-making. Internal migration is an issue that creates uneven development and sustainability challenges in countries. More specifically, internal migrations are putting a big pressure on cities and urban areas, while leaving vast less-urbanized areas depopulated and unsustainable to future generations. This paper includes two machine learning models with an accuracy of 70% for predicting internal migration intensity in local selfgovernments (LSGs), as well as the proposed decision-support tool that achieves an accuracy of 66%. The proposed system maintains desirable properties of decision support systems such as correctness, completeness, consistency, comprehensibility, and convenience and allows the what-if analysis to evaluate appropriate policies for each LSG. The identified key features can be used to influence migration levels in LSGs and promote balanced development in Serbia.