Intensification Level Research Articles

A Typological Characterization of Organic Livestock Farms in the Natural Park Sierra de Grazalema Based on Technical and Economic Variables

This paper describes the typological characterization of the Natural Park Sierra de Grazalema (NPSG) livestock farms using its communal pastures (N = 23, 100% of population) in order to study their sustainability from 160 technical, economic and social variables (from direct on-farm data collection). A principal components analysis (PCA) produced four principal components related to size, livestock species, main productions and intensification level, explaining 73.6% of the variance. The subsequent cluster analysis classified the farms into four groups: C1 (medium size farms without sheep), C2 (large size and very extensive farms), C3 (farms with multipurpose sheep) and C4 (farms with dairy goat and without cattle). Forty-eight-point-seven percent of the surface was registered as organic but none of the farms’ commercialized products were organic. C2 and C3 (both having three ruminant species) are those farms that have more economic differences, the former generating the lowest profit, and the latter generating the highest; however, there is a risk to grasslands conservation from the current tendency that leads dairy farms to rapid intensification. Nevertheless, the very extensive farms are the most interesting for NPSG conservation and the administration should help to maintain the profitability of this sustainable traditional activity, which is necessary to conserve communal pastures.

Nutrient flows and intensification options for smallholder farmers of the Lao uplands

South East Asia's agricultural landscape is rapidly transitioning from subsistence to intensive and market-oriented production, often with negative impacts on soil fertility. Ensuring that this transition is conducted in a sustainable way is critical, especially for the poorest who rely exclusively on natural resources that are of limited quality and quantity. This study aims to evaluate sustainable intensification options for smallholder ethnic minority farmers of the Lao uplands. Following a systematic selection of case study crop-livestock farms with different degrees of diversification and market orientation, we adopted a detailed nutrient flow approach to quantify nitrogen (N) and phosphorus (P) balances at farm level using a whole farm modelling tool. This was then used to simulate alternative sustainable intensification options relative to the baseline and their impact on farm performance and N and P cycling. Irrespective of the intensification level, nutrient balances were negative on all farms, with net nutrient removal between −34 and −130kgNha−1y−1 and between −9 and −20kg P ha−1y−1. The positive effect of the sustainable intensification options on selected system performance variables was up to 15 times higher when its baseline value was low, i.e. when potential for improvement was high. Compared to the baseline (rice and maize monocropping systems), fallow plots during the dry season and low level of residues recycling, all intensification options increased land productivity and N balance by at least 12% on each farm, whereas the P balances were negatively impacted. The positive effects on the N balances might not be sufficient to reverse nutrient depletion, and additional nutrient inputs would be necessary. Four management principles are key to ensure a smooth transition from subsistence to intensive production: no residue burning, stay diverse, integrate livestock and use small amounts of P mineral fertilizer. If combined with efficient and integrative agricultural extension, seed systems and market development, these basic principles could be the key success factor for a sustainable development of the Lao uplands.

Potato (Solanum tuberosum L.) Tuber Yield and Yield Components as Influenced by Different Levels of Nitrogen, Phosphorus and Potassium in Rwanda

Despite potato yield potential, its intensification level remain low in Rwanda, translating into low yield occasioned mainly by the decline in soil fertility. Field experiments were conducted in Birunga, Mudende [L1]) and Buberuka, Rwerere [L2] highlands Agro-Ecological Zones (AEZs), during September- December 2016 and March-June 2017 crop growing seasons to determine the effects of varying rates of N, P and K on potato tuber yield and yield components. The experiments were laid out using randomized complete block design with factorial arrangement, with four replicates. Factors were N rates (NX) i.e N1-0 kg ha-1, N2 – 50 kg ha-1, N3 – 100 kg ha-1 ; P2O5 rates (PX) i.e P1-0 kg ha-1, P2 – 50 kg ha-1, P3 – 100 kg ha-1and K2O rates (Kx) i.e K1- 0 kg ha1and K2- 50 kg ha-1. Number of tubers per plant, fresh tuber weight, small tuber yield, medium tuber yield, large tuber yield and total tuber yield were measured. Analysis of variance, performed using SAS-version 9.2, revealed that interaction effects of N×P×K were very highly significant on all parameters. Generally, N3×P3×K2 performed better than other treatments and recorded highest tuber yields in all situations: (32.73 ± 0.43) t ha-1[L1] and (29.36 ± 0.41) t ha-1 [L2] and (31.05 ± 0.52) t ha-1for pooled ANOVA. Contrarily to what happened at L2, N3P3K2 andN2P3K2 were not significantly different at L1. N2P3 K2 is recommended to L1 whereas N3P3K2 is recommended to L2.

Thermal-Hydraulic Studies on the Shell-and-Tube Heat Exchanger with Minijets

In this paper a patented design of a heat exchanger with minijets, with a cylindrical construction is presented. It is followed by the results of its systematic experimental investigations in the single-phase convection heat transfer mode. Based on these results, validation of selected correlations (coming from the literature) describing the Nusselt number was carried out. An assessment of the heat exchange intensification level in the described heat exchanger was done through the comparison with a shell-and-tube exchanger of a classical design. The thermal-hydraulic characteristics of both units were the subjects of comparison. They were constructed for the identical thermal conditions, i.e., volumetric flow rates of the working media and the media temperatures at the inlets to the heat exchanger. The experimental studies of both heat exchangers were conducted on the same test facility. An increase in the heat transfer coefficients values for the minijets heat exchanger was observed in comparison with the reference one, whereas the generated minijets caused greater hydraulic resistance. Experimentally confirmed intensification of heat transfer on the air side, makes the proposed minijets heat exchanger application more attractive, for the waste heat utilization systems from gas sources.

Spatial–Temporal Analysis of Urban Land-Use Efficiency: An Analytical Framework in Terms of Economic Transition and Spatiality

Rapid urban expansion may cause a decline in land-use efficiency and result in a series of social and ecological problems. Economic transition has significantly influenced urban land development, and provides a good perspective for analyzing changes in land-use efficiency. This paper primarily discusses the theoretical influence of economic transition on urban land-use efficiency. Using 126 cities in the Yangtze River Economic Zone as examples, we explore the spatial–temporal characteristics of changes in land-use efficiency, and estimate the relationship between land-use efficiency and economic transition with econometric models. The results show that the land-use efficiency of the Yangtze River Economic Zone has generally been improved over time, and presented significant clustering effects around urban agglomerations. Panel data analysis suggests that foreign direct investment in the globalization process and tax burdens, which were further aggravated by the reform of the responsibility and revenue assignment between local and central government, have had a significant negative effect on land-use efficiency. On the contrary, marketization, urbanization, and fiscal expenditure decentralization have exerted significant positive effects. We also found that agglomeration effects and location advantages did play a positive role in improving land-use efficiency, which accounted for the spatial inequality. This paper concludes with policy proposals to improve the intensification and economization level of urban land use.

Advances in surrogate modeling for storm surge prediction: storm selection and addressing characteristics related to climate change

This paper establishes various advancements for the application of surrogate modeling techniques for storm surge prediction utilizing an existing database of high-fidelity, synthetic storms (tropical cyclones). Kriging, also known as Gaussian process regression, is specifically chosen as the surrogate model in this study. Emphasis is first placed on the storm selection for developing the database of synthetic storms. An adaptive, sequential selection is examined here that iteratively identifies the storm (or multiple storms) that is expected to provide the greatest enhancement of the prediction accuracy when that storm is added into the already available database. Appropriate error statistics are discussed for assessing convergence of this iterative selection, and its performance is compared to the joint probability method with optimal sampling, utilizing the required number of synthetic storms to achieve the same level of accuracy as comparison metric. The impact on risk estimation is also examined. The discussion then moves to adjustments of the surrogate modeling framework to support two implementation issues that might become more relevant due to climate change considerations: future storm intensification and sea level rise (SLR). For storm intensification, the use of the surrogate model for prediction extrapolation is examined. Tuning of the surrogate model characteristics using cross-validation techniques and modification of the tuning to prioritize storms with specific characteristics are proposed, whereas an augmentation of the database with new/additional storms is also considered. With respect to SLR, the recently developed database for the US Army Corps of Engineers’ North Atlantic Comprehensive Coastal Study is exploited to demonstrate how surrogate modeling can support predictions that include SLR considerations.

Crop-livestock integration determines the agroecological performance of mixed farming systems in Latino-Caribbean farms

Characterizing and understanding the complexity of numerous interactions occurring in mixed farming systems is still a methodological challenge. We hypothesize that farm functioning features in terms of crop-livestock integration practices impact the agroecological performance of the system, which will be also affected by the farm context. In order to analyze crop-livestock integration in a holistic way, a set of seventeen mixed farming systems from three contrasting socioeconomic regions of the humid tropics (Guadeloupe, Brazilian Amazonia, and Cuba) was selected in order to cover a wide range of crop-livestock integration situations. The ecological network analysis was applied to each farm in order to study the nutrient flow networks, expressed in nitrogen. The activity and flow organization of crop-livestock integration practices were characterized and the agroecological performance has been evaluated in terms of efficiency, resilience, productivity, and dependency of N flow networks. Here, we show for the first time that the range of crop-livestock integration is well characterized by the activity and organization of flows. Gradients of crop-livestock integration were well detected and described. Some agroecological performances were related to a particular socioeconomic context. Resource endowment influenced efficiency, according to the intensification level. The crop-livestock integration however contributed partially to the productivity of the system, being especially effective in promoting resilience. This study applies a suitable framework to analyze complex farming systems while linking their functioning and performance in an agroecological approach. Thus, comparison of contrasting systems was feasible here with the support of numerical and tangible figures for interpreting complex indicators (e.g., resilience), representing a useful tool for monitoring sustainability of agricultural systems in a dynamic and holistic way.

Effect of husbandry system on the technical and economic performance of dairy cattle

This study aimed to investigate the effects of husbandry system on the technical and economic performance of dairy farming. Samples included data from 61 dairy farms from the State of Minas Gerais, Brazil, which were collected between 2002 and 2011. Farms were categorized by type-pasture-based (PB), semi-confinement (SC), and confinement (C)-and technical and economic indexes were compared. In general, the results indicated indexes that are higher than the average for Brazilian farms but lower than those in other countries or technological farms in other Brazilian regions. Milk production was mainly determined by farm size rather than by productivity indexes. Components of the total and effective operational costs that were most significant were feeding followed by labor. The comparative analysis indicated that, although C systems have technical indexes that are superior to those of the PB and SC systems, economic performance was independent of the intensification level. Thus, pasture systems are potentially competitive, provided that the producers are efficient.

Efeito do sistema de criação no desempenho técnico e econômico de rebanhos leiteiros

This study aimed to investigate the effects of husbandry system on the technical and economic performance of dairy farming. Samples included data from 61 dairy farms from the State of Minas Gerais, Brazil, which were collected between 2002 and 2011. Farms were categorized by type-pasture-based (PB), semi-confinement (SC), and confinement (C)-and technical and economic indexes were compared. In general, the results indicated indexes that are higher than the average for Brazilian farms but lower than those in other countries or technological farms in other Brazilian regions. Milk production was mainly determined by farm size rather than by productivity indexes. Components of the total and effective operational costs that were most significant were feeding followed by labor. The comparative analysis indicated that, although C systems have technical indexes that are superior to those of the PB and SC systems, economic performance was independent of the intensification level. Thus, pasture systems are potentially competitive, provided that the producers are efficient.

Climate impact on vegetation and animal husbandry on the Mongolian plateau: a comparative analysis

International research has focused more attention on arid and semiarid regions in recent years, as climate change has already had adverse impacts on grasslands and local households in the Mongolian plateau. Based on meteorological data, GIMMS AVHRR NDVI3g data, and livestock records, through statistical analysis, a significantly strong warming trend and a slightly decreasing trend in precipitation were ascertained in this region. Precipitation patterns are shifting, and intensifying, extreme events, such as droughts and dzud (extremely harsh winters characterized by heavy snow and low temperature), are a major threat to vegetation growth and animal husbandry development. Following a comparative analysis approach, we explored how the vegetation and animal husbandry response to climate change and extreme weather differ between Inner Mongolia and Mongolia. We found that vegetation growth generally decreased after the mid-1990s, but began to recover from 2001 over the entire region. The agricultural intensification level is higher in Inner Mongolia than in Mongolia, and residents in Inner Mongolia have a greater awareness of unexpected disasters than those in Mongolia. To deal with these challenges, this region warrants further study on how climate extremes will impact on regional animal husbandry and local social economics on the arid and semiarid regions. This could have implications for the international community, local government, local residents, and future scientific activities in this space.

A steady nonlinear and singular vortex Rossby wave within a rapidly rotating vortex. Part II: Application to geophysical vortices

In a previous paper, Caillol [Geophys. Astrophys. Fluid Dyn., 2014, 108] investigated the steady nonlinear vortical structure of a singular vortex Rossby mode that has survived to a strong critical-layer-like interaction with a linearly stable, columnar, axisymmetric and dry vortex. We presented a general theory for this wave/mean flow interaction through the nonlinear critical layer theory and calculated the mean azimuthal and axial winds induced at the critical radius at the end of this interaction in the final stage. We here apply that theory to rapidly rotating geophysical vortices: tropical cyclones, cold-air mesocyclones and tornadoes. We find that the numerous assumptions invoked in that paper agree well with the reality of those intense vortices. We also find that in spite of a lack of moist-convection modelling, this dry vortex is fairly well accelerated at the critical radius by such a shear wave with a magnitude of order the square root of the damped-wave amplitude. The intensification level strongly depends on the aspect ratio, height of the system: rapid vortex and parent vortex, over core radius. The thinner the vortex is, the sharper the intensification is. This result is in sharp contrast to the numerous numerical simulations on VR wave/vortex interactions that yield a much smaller intensification of order the square of the wave amplitude. This weakly nonlinear approach nevertheless fails to model small vertical wavelength VR wave/vortex interactions for their related asymptotic expansions are divergent and for they yield strongly nonlinear VR waves coupled with evolving critical layers whose extent can no longer be considered as thin.

Flexible job shop with continuous material flow

A new scheduling problem, the continuous flow flexible job shop (CF-FJS) is proposed. The formulation combines the well-known flexible job shop (FJS) problem and a dedicated continuous material flow model (MFM). In the MFM, operations are represented by material flow functions derived by integration of arbitrarily defined speed patterns. Two main concepts of the MFM formalism, i.e. variable speed of processing and continuous material flow, lead to position-dependent processing times and overlapping in operations which extend standard FJS formulation. Properties of the CF-FJS are investigated. A tabu search sched uling algorithm utilising these properties is proposed. Effective neighbourhood functions are defined based on elimination approaches. Two auxiliary procedures: search intensification level switching and fast feasibility detection are added to improve algorithm efficiency. The algorithm is verified using dedicated benchmark instances which comprise non-trivial representations of the CF-FJS specific features, i.e. machine efficiency patterns and minimum inter-operation buffers. The research is motivated by task scheduling in a fastener factory, but the presented results can be useful in many domains, such as production of granular goods, steel details, glass and fluids. The solution can be used in real-world applications. The published results can be helpful in testing new CF-FJS scheduling algorithms.

Land use changes from EU biofuel use: a sensitivity analysis

This paper employs the general equilibrium model MAGNET to assess the effects of the European Commission’s proposals for the revision of the Renewable Energy Directive (RED) on land use changes in the European Union and worldwide. The focus of the paper is to evaluate the sensitivity of the land use changes to different assumptions on the blending mix between ethanol and biodiesel for meeting the 5 % blending target of first generation biofuels, on the intensification level of agricultural production and on the available agricultural land. The results suggest that net land use changes (LUC) in the EU due to the revised RED are limited and are more sensitive to the share of ethanol and biodiesel in meeting the blending target compared to different assumptions on the availability of land and of yields that can be achieved when substituting land with other production factors. LUC in the rest of the world stem from increased EU imports of feedstock and of biofuels. LUC is especially sensitive to the substitution between land and fertilizer in regions with extensive agricultural production systems. In regions trading vegetable oil and oilseeds with the EU, and in regions producing ethanol, LUC is influenced by the share of ethanol in the biofuel mix used in the EU.

How can farming intensification affect the environmental impact of milk production?

The intensification process of the livestock sector has been characterized in recent decades by increasing output of product per hectare, increasing stocking rate, including more concentrated feed in the diet, and improving the genetic merit of the breeds. In dairy farming, the effects of intensification on the environmental impact of milk production are not completely clarified. The aim of the current study was to assess the environmental impacts of dairy production by a life cycle approach and to identify relations between farming intensity and environmental performances expressed on milk and land units. A group of 28 dairy farms located in northern Italy was involved in the study; data collected during personal interviews of farmers were analyzed to estimate emissions (global warming potential, acidification, and eutrophication potentials) and nonrenewable source consumption (energy and land use). The environmental impacts of milk production obtained from the life cycle assessment were similar to those of other recent studies and showed high variability among the farms. From a cluster analysis, 3 groups of farms were identified, characterized by different levels of production intensity. Clusters of farms showed similar environmental performances on product basis, despite important differences in terms of intensification level, management, and structural characteristics. Our study pointed out that, from a product perspective, the most environmentally friendly way to produce milk is not clearly identifiable. However, the principal component analysis showed that some characteristics related to farming intensification, such as milk production per cow, dairy efficiency, and stocking density, were negatively related to the impacts per kilogram of product, suggesting a role of these factors in the mitigation strategy of environmental burden of milk production on a global scale. Considering the environmental burden on a local perspective, the impacts per hectare were positively associated with the intensification level.

Caracterización y clasificación de hatos lecheros en Costa Rica mediante análisis multivariado.

This study was carried out to characterize and classify a group of herds (n=1086) associated to the main Dairy Cooperative in Costa Rica. The information analyzed in this study was obtained initially from the last census conducted by the cooperative during year 2007. This information was complemented with computerized records of the same cooperative and geographical information systems with climatic and soil types data. Farm classification was performed by combining two different multivariate techniques: Factor Analysis (FA) and Cluster Analysis (CA). Analysis was performed on 18 variables, mainly related to physical and climatic aspects, herd management, input level and production level. FA identified three significant principal factors: intensification level, altitude (masl), and productive orientation accounting for 42,6%, 24,2% and 13,2% of total variance. On the basis of these three factors, CA identified five main herd typologies: Intensive specialized dairy herds in the highlands (n=374), Semi-intensive specialized dairy herds in the highlands (n=274), Intensive specialized dairy herds in the Lowlands (n=167), Extensive specialized dairy farms in the Lowlands (n=189) and Extensive Dual-Purpose herds in the Lowlands (n=82).

Medidas agroambientales y conservación de la biodiversidad: Limitaciones y perspectivas de futuro

Las medidas agroambientales se consideran la principal herramienta disponible para frenar la pérdida de biodiversidad asociada a la intensificación de la agricultura. Sin embargo la cuestión sobre si constituyen o no una herramienta adecuada para cumplir este objetivo continúa siendo objeto de debate científico. Las evaluaciones realizadas hasta el momento ofrecen resultados muy variables al respecto. En general, las medidas resultan efectivas cuando su objetivo es la conservación de especies concretas en regiones bien delimitadas, pero esta efectividad suele ser menor cuando sus objetivos son más amplios, como la conservación de la biodiversidad en un país o región. Se han propuesto varias razones para explicar las limitaciones observadas con el fin de mejorar la efectividad de las medidas. En primer lugar se encuentra la dificultad de diseñar prescripciones que beneficien a conjuntos de especies con requerimientos diferentes e incluso contrastados. Otra de las principales limitaciones de las medidas agroambientales es su aplicación a escala local (campos de cultivo), lo que restringe su capacidad para compensar los efectos paisajísticos o regionales de la intensificación agrícola o de otros cambios de uso. Finalmente, las relaciones no lineales entre intensificación agrícola y diversidad a varias escalas espaciales y sus efectos interactivos implican que la efectividad de las medidas pueda variar dependiendo del grado de extensificación de la medida y del sistema en que se aplica. Es necesario que los programas agroambientales adopten un enfoque a múltiples escalas espaciales, combinando la extensificación de las prácticas agrícolas con la conservación del paisaje agrario. Las medidas de conservación más adecuadas en cada caso dependerán del contexto paisajístico, así como del nivel de intensificación del sistema agrícola de interés. En sistemas agrícolas intensivos, con niveles intermedios de complejidad paisajística, se deberían aplicar medidas genéricas basadas en la reducción de la intensidad de los usos agrícolas, y dirigidas al mantenimiento de los servicios ecosistémicos que desempeñan los organismos que albergan. Los sistemas agrícolas complejos requieren el mantenimiento de los usos tradicionales extensivos que garantizan la conservación de paisajes complejos con niveles elevados de biodiversidad, en combinación con medidas específicas para las especies amenazadas presentes en los mismos. Para ello podrían utilizarse herramientas de la Política Agraria Común (PAC), como la condicionalidad o los programas para áreas de alto valor natural, así como medidas específicas de planificación territorial dirigidas a fomentar la heterogeneidad y la conectividad en los paisajes agrícolas.

Accounting for multi-functionality of sheep farming in the carbon footprint of lamb: A comparison of three contrasting Mediterranean systems

Intensifying animal production is generally advocated to mitigate greenhouse gases emissions associated with production of animal-source food. Sheep farming systems (SFSs) in Spain are generally considered to be pasture-based and extensive, but large differences in input utilization, land use and intensification level exist. Their environmental impacts, therefore, are expected to differ also. We used life cycle assessment (LCA) to evaluate greenhouse gases (GHGs) emissions of three contrasting meat-sheep farming systems in Spain, which differed in their degree of intensification (reproduction rate, land use and grazing management). The GHGs emissions of these systems varied from 19.5 to 25.9 kg CO2-eq per kg of lamb live weight, or 39.0–51.7 kg CO2-eq per kg of lamb meat, with highest values referring to the pasture-based livestock system. In addition to meat, however, these SFSs also provide other services to society (e.g. public goods such as biodiversity and landscape conservation). We valued these services for each SFSs based on agri-environmental subsidies of the EU and used farm economic values to allocate GHGs emissions of SFSs between meat and cultural ecosystem services. When accounting for multifunctionality, GHGs emission per kg of lamb live weight among the SFSs was reversed: with lowest values for the pasture-based system (13.9 kg CO2-eq per kg of lamb live weight) and highest for zero-grazing system (19.5 kg CO2-eq per kg of lamb live weight). A comparison of GHGs emissions among SFSs should account for the multifunctionality of pasture-based livestock systems.

The Quantitative Analysis of Environmental Cost and Intensification Level in Industry

The industry economy intensification is a concept that collect the productive investment save and the environmental pollution low emission together, stressed that obtains the greatest repayment of output value by the smallest cost of investment. This article focus on the quantitative evaluation of two aspects that the time series and the spatial differences, the results were as follows: the level of China's industrial intensification has significant increase from 1994 to 2010, the rate of increase has relatively gentle in later period; Take the cross-section data in 31 provinces of China as the basis in 2010, the level of industrial intensification exist regional differences in each provinces(autonomous regions), represent as follows: the eastern provinces> the middle provinces> the west provinces; the intensification degree of the industrial economy and its level of development showing an increase relationship of power function, the level of industry economy is high, its level of intensification is also high generally, and vice versa.

An integrated sustainability assessment of mediterranean sheep farms with different degrees of intensification

In the European Mediterranean basin, pasture-based sheep farming systems are mostly located in marginal/High Nature Value areas. These production systems are multifunctional, and their economic, environmental and social roles are equally important and recognised by policy makers and by society. However, the number of animals and holdings is decreasing, and there is great uncertainty regarding the reproducibility of these farming systems, which depends on many internal and external farm factors and their interactions. The aim of this paper was to perform a comprehensive assessment of sustainability in different sheep farming systems in north eastern Spain using the MESMIS framework. We followed a case-study approach to perform an in-depth investigation of 4 sheep meat and dairy farms with different intensities of reproduction management. Critical points of sustainability, including weaknesses and opportunities, were obtained using a participatory process with stakeholders (farmers and technical advisers) that resulted in the selection of 37 sustainability indicators that were classified according to the systemic attributes defined by MESMIS (productivity, stability, self-reliance, adaptability, equity) and according to the classical sustainability pillars (social, economic and environmental). Some underlying patterns could be observed when analysing sustainability pillars, attributes and indicators. A positive relationship between productivity and intensification level in meat farms was observed; however, economic sustainability was determined not only by on-farm but also by off-farm activities. The economic efficiency of farming (without considering subsidies) was mainly explained by the capture of added value in the dairy systems and the combination of high animal productivity as well as high forage and feed self-sufficiency in the meat systems. Social issues were also central to explaining sustainability at the farm level, including the prospects of generational turnover and the manner in which farmers perceive and rate their activity. A clear trade-off between economic and environmental indicators was observed, i.e., the higher the economic sustainability, the lower the environmental sustainability. Each farm scored differently for diverse attributes, pillars and individual indicators. The scores differed according to size, structure, resource availability and managerial skills, which implies that it would be difficult to apply a holistic sustainability analysis to farming systems instead of individual farms. A number of methodological questions arose during the evaluation process relative to the stakeholders perception of these indicators, their relevance and meaning, the reference values for comparison, or their validity to assess sustainability across spatial and temporal scales. These questions are discussed in the paper.

Climate change under a scenario near 1.5 °C of global warming: monsoon intensification, ocean warming and steric sea level rise

Abstract. We present climatic consequences of the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) using the coupled climate model CLIMBER-3α, which contains a statistical-dynamical atmosphere and a three-dimensional ocean model. We compare those with emulations of 19 state-of-the-art atmosphere-ocean general circulation models (AOGCM) using MAGICC6. The RCPs are designed as standard scenarios for the forthcoming IPCC Fifth Assessment Report to span the full range of future greenhouse gas (GHG) concentrations pathways currently discussed. The lowest of the RCP scenarios, RCP3-PD, is projected in CLIMBER-3α to imply a maximal warming by the middle of the 21st century slightly above 1.5 °C and a slow decline of temperatures thereafter, approaching today's level by 2500. We identify two mechanisms that slow down global cooling after GHG concentrations peak: The known inertia induced by mixing-related oceanic heat uptake; and a change in oceanic convection that enhances ocean heat loss in high latitudes, reducing the surface cooling rate by almost 50%. Steric sea level rise under the RCP3-PD scenario continues for 200 years after the peak in surface air temperatures, stabilizing around 2250 at 30 cm. This contrasts with around 1.3 m of steric sea level rise by 2250, and 2 m by 2500, under the highest scenario, RCP8.5. Maximum oceanic warming at intermediate depth (300–800 m) is found to exceed that of the sea surface by the second half of the 21st century under RCP3-PD. This intermediate-depth warming persists for centuries even after surface temperatures have returned to present-day values, with potential consequences for marine ecosystems, oceanic methane hydrates, and ice-shelf stability. Due to an enhanced land-ocean temperature contrast, all scenarios yield an intensification of monsoon rainfall under global warming.