Intensification Events Research Articles

Rapid intensification of tropical cyclones in the Gulf of Mexico is more likely during marine heatwaves

Tropical cyclones can rapidly intensify under favorable oceanic and atmospheric conditions. This phenomenon is complex and difficult to predict, making it a serious challenge for coastal communities. A key contributing factor to the intensification process is the presence of prolonged high sea surface temperatures, also known as marine heatwaves. However, the extent to which marine heatwaves contribute to the potential of rapid intensification events is not yet fully explored. Here, we conduct a probabilistic analysis to assess how the likelihood of rapid intensification changes during marine heatwaves in the Gulf of Mexico and northwestern Caribbean Sea. Approximately 70% of hurricanes that formed between 1950 and 2022 were influenced by marine heatwaves. Notably, rapid intensification is, on average, 50% more likely during marine heatwaves. As marine heatwaves are on the increase due to climate change, our findings indicate that more frequent rapid intensification events can be expected in the warming climate.

Living in the shore: changes in coastal resource intensification during the Mesolithic in northern Iberia

Recent research on human exploitation of molluscs, echinoderms and crustaceans during the Mesolithic in the Cantabrian region (northern Iberia) has shown significant variability in the intensity of the use of coastal resources by the last hunter-fisher-gatherers throughout the ~ 4000-year expanse of the Mesolithic (10,700 – 6,700 cal BP). Previous studies have proposed hypotheses related to demographic changes to explain intensification events. In this paper we aim to unravel whether climatic and environmental changes, or other social factors, such as demography, were involved in the increase in the use of marine resources at certain times. We employed species representation, quantification and biometric analysis of the shell assemblages from the El Toral III archaeological site (Asturias, northern Iberia) to identify patterns in shell exploitation throughout the stratigraphic sequence. To establish the chronology and distinguish occupation phases of the site, we employed Bayesian modelling of radiocarbon measurements. Faunal results show that marine gastropods such as limpets of the Patella genus and topshells Phorcus lineatus (da Costa, 1778) were the most exploited species, while bivalves, echinoids and crustaceans were present in smaller quantities. The comparison of the results for El Toral III with other Mesolithic sites in the region reveals significant temporal differences in the intensity of collection of marine shell species. Results showed that intensification processes are not clearly related to climate change but to other social factors, such as demography, suggesting that intensification and relaxation in shell collection events were strategies adopted depending on the needs of the human groups at different times.

Improvement in Forecasting Short-Term Tropical Cyclone Intensity Change and Their Rapid Intensification Using Deep Learning

Abstract Forecasting the intensity of a tropical cyclone (TC) remains challenging, particularly when it undergoes rapid changes in intensity. This study aims to develop a convolutional neural network (CNN) for 24-h forecasts of the TC intensity changes and their rapid intensifications over the western Pacific. The CNN model, the DeepTC, is trained using a unique loss function, an amplitude focal loss, to better capture large intensity changes, such as those during rapid intensification (RI) events. We showed that the DeepTC outperforms operational forecasts, with a lower mean absolute error (8.9%–10.2%) and a higher coefficient of determination (31.7%–35%). In addition, the DeepTC exhibits a substantially better skill at capturing RI events than operational forecasts. To understand the superior performance of the DeepTC in RI forecasts, we conduct an occlusion sensitivity analysis to quantify the relative importance of each predictor. Results revealed that scalar quantities such as latitude, previous intensity change, initial intensity, and vertical wind shear play critical roles in successful RI prediction. Additionally, the DeepTC utilizes the three-dimensional distribution of relative humidity to distinguish RI cases from non-RI cases, with higher dry–moist moisture gradients in the mid-to-low troposphere and steeper radial moisture gradients in the upper troposphere showed during RI events. These relationships between the identified key variables and intensity change were successfully simulated by the DeepTC, implying that the relationship is physically reasonable. Our study demonstrates that the DeepTC can be a powerful tool for improving RI understanding and enhancing the reliability of TC intensity forecasts.

Key ingredients in regional climate modelling for improving the representation of typhoon tracks and intensities

Abstract. There is evidence of an increased frequency of rapid intensification events of tropical cyclones (TCs) in global offshore regions. This will not only result in increased peak wind speeds but may lead to more intense heavy precipitation events, leading to flooding in coastal regions. Therefore, high impacts are expected for urban agglomerations in coastal regions such as the densely populated Pearl River Delta (PRD) in China. Regional climate models (RCMs) such as the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model are state-of-the-art tools commonly applied to predict TCs. However, typhoon simulations are connected with high uncertainties due to the high number of parameterization schemes of relevant physical processes (including possible interactions between the parameterization schemes) such as cumulus (CU) and microphysics (MP), as well as other crucial model settings such as domain setup, initial times, and spectral nudging. Since previous studies mostly focus on either individual typhoon cases or individual parameterization schemes, in this study a more comprehensive analysis is provided by considering four different typhoons of different intensity categories with landfall near the PRD, i.e. Typhoon Neoguri (2008), Typhoon Hagupit (2008), Typhoon Hato (2017), and Typhoon Usagi (2013), as well as two different schemes for CU and MP, respectively. Moreover, the impact of the model initialization and the driving data is studied by using three different initial times and two spectral nudging settings. Compared with the best-track reference data, the results show that the four typhoons show some consistency. For track bias, nudging only horizontal wind has a positive effect on reducing the track distance bias; for intensity, compared with a model explicitly resolving cumulus convection, i.e. without cumulus parameterization (CuOFF; nudging potential temperature and horizontal wind; late initial time), using the Kain–Fritsch scheme (KF; nudging only horizontal wind; early initial time) configuration shows relatively lower minimum sea level pressures and higher maximum wind speeds, which means stronger typhoon intensity. Intensity shows less sensitivity to two MP schemes compared with the CuOFF, nudging, and initial time settings. Furthermore, we found that compared with the CuOFF, using the KF scheme shows a relatively larger latent heat flux and higher equivalent potential temperature, providing more energy to typhoon development and inducing stronger TCs. This study could be used as a reference to configure WRF with the model's different combinations of schemes for historical and future TC simulations and also contributes to a better understanding of the performance of principal TC structures.

The Pairing of Rapid Intensification Events and Eyewall Replacement Cycles in Tropical Cyclones in the Atlantic Basin from 2015 to 2020

Rapid intensification (RI) and eyewall replacement cycles (ERCs) frequently occur in intense tropical cyclones (TCs), often causing rapid, significant changes in intensity and structure. In some TCs, RI and ERCs can occur concurrently or within a short period of one another. This study investigates whether there is a link between RI and ERCs by conducting a statistical analysis of TCs that occurred in the North Atlantic basin from 2015 to 2020. The HURDAT2 dataset was used to detect RI events, while the Morphed Integrated Microwave Imagery archive by the Cooperative Institute for Meteorological Satellite Studies was used to detect ERC events. Three sets of data were constructed from this analysis: TCs with paired RI/ERC events that occurred within 24 h of each other, TCs with RI only, and TCs with ERCs only. Statistics selected for analysis within the constructed datasets were mean duration of phenomena, mean rate of intensification, and mean peak intensity. We performed t-tests to determine the statistical significance of results. The results of this study show that TCs with these paired RI/ERC events often intensified at a faster rate, intensified for longer, and ended up stronger than TCs that only experienced RI or ERCs in isolation.

PATTERNS OF ANTIHYPERTENSIVES CHANGE AND MORTALITY IN VA NURSING HOME RESIDENTS

Abstract Antihypertensive treatment is common in nursing home residents, yet data on the frequency and pattens of treatment changes in this group are lacking. We described the patterns of antihypertensive treatment changes and examined the mortality rate in 24870 Veterans Affairs (VA) nursing home residents ≥65 years with long-term stays (≥180 days) from 2006-2019. The number and dose of antihypertensive use was averaged weekly, and two change events were defined: deprescribing (reduced number of antihypertensives or dose of ≥30% compared to previous week) and intensification (opposite to deprescribing). More than 91% of residents were prescribed antihypertensive and 75% experienced at least one event during their stay. Death occurred in 7881 (32%) residents. We categorized residents into 10 distinct pattern groups: no change (27%), 1 deprescribing event (11%), 1 intensification event (10%), multiple deprescribing events (5%), multiple intensification events (7%), 1 deprescribing followed by 1 intensification (3%), 1 intensification followed by 1 deprescribing (4%), 3 changes with mixed deprescribing/intensification (7%), >3 changes with mixed deprescribing/intensification (10%), and no antihypertensive use (15%). We found treatment changes were more frequent in residents with better mobility and cognitive function. Residents who experienced deprescribing events had higher mortality than those experienced intensification events. The highest mortality was for those without medication (incidence = 344/1000 person-year) and this group also had the worst cognitive function. These findings indicate that complex patterns of medication changes exist in VA nursing home residents. A better understanding of the consequence of antihypertensive treatment changes could inform clinical practice in this population.

Changes in ENSO Modulation of the Distribution of Rapidly Intensifying Tropical Cyclones over the Western North Pacific in Boreal Autumn

Abstract This work explores the modulation of the Pacific decadal oscillation (PDO) on the relationship between the occurrence position of rapid intensification (RI) events of tropical cyclones (TCs) over the western North Pacific (WNP) in boreal autumn and El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO). From the warm to cold phase of the PDO, the occurrence position of WNP RI events experiences a significant westward shift of 5.5° in El Niño years and a significant northward shift of 4.5° in La Niña years. The strengthening of thermodynamic conditions west of 160°N plays a dominant role in the westward shift of RI events in El Niño years, and the northward shift in La Niña years is associated with the expansion of areas with warm sea surface temperature, high tropical cyclone heat potential and midlevel relative humidity, strengthening of relative vorticity north of 20°N, and weakening of dynamic conditions within 10°–20°N. During the PDO cold phase, the descending branch of the Walker circulation over the western Pacific is weak and shifts west of 140°E in El Niño years, whereas it is much stronger in La Niña years. In addition, the Hadley circulation over the WNP shows little change during El Niño, but the ascending branch around 10°N expands to 20°N during La Niña. These trends reflect the changing responses of the WNP environment to ENSO variation and are consistent with the changing distribution of WNP RI events. Moreover, during the PDO cold phases, SST over the north Indian Ocean is much warmer, and anomalous anticyclonic circulation occurs in the WNP in boreal spring (summer and autumn) during the developing phase of El Niño (La Niña) years, which may also contribute to strengthening the thermodynamic conditions over the WNP.

The Histories of Well-Documented Maritime Cyclones as Portrayed by an Automated Tracking Method

Abstract This study examines extratropical cyclone tracks, central pressure, and maximum intensification rates from a widely used automated cyclone tracking scheme and compares them with the manual tracking of five well-known North Atlantic cyclones whose histories are available in the refereed literature. The automated tracking scheme is applied to sea level pressure data from four different reanalyses of varying levels of sophistication to test the sensitivity of the results to input data resolution and quality. Further, we test the tracking scheme using lower-tropospheric vorticity obtained from the most recent reanalysis (ERA5) for four of these cyclone events. Substantial discrepancies in cyclone position, intensity, and maximum intensification rates exist between the manual tracking and the automated tracking and are not eliminated by using higher-resolution reanalyses or by “turning off” the spatial smoothing feature of the automated tracking scheme (needed to reduce spurious cyclone detections). The results point to a particular problem in detecting weaker and earlier stage cyclones and confirm findings from studies that have examined a broad range of cyclone tracking schemes for a range of reanalyses. Notably, this early cyclone stage often involves a smaller-scale secondary cyclogenesis or cyclone wave, which are detected by the automated scheme only after subsequent growth in the ensuing 6–12 h. It is known that these early stages are critical for a comprehensive understanding of rapid intensification events. A discussion of possible future solutions to this problem is presented. Significance Statement Because of the availability of large modern datasets portraying sea level pressure across the globe, meteorologists have turned to automated detection and tracking of midlatitude cyclones. Detection and tracking are of interest since these storm systems play an important role in weather and climate and potential changes in their location, frequency, and intensity are of considerable societal interest given climate change. This paper compares the results obtained from one commonly used automated tracking method with tracks obtained by human analysts. We find substantial discrepancies in cyclone position, intensity, and intensification rates and that these differences are not eliminated by using improved analyses. A discussion of possible future solutions is presented.

Seasonal advance of intense tropical cyclones in a warming climate

Intense tropical cyclones (TCs), which often peak in autumn1,2, have destructive impacts on life and property3–5, making it crucial to determine whether any changes in intense TCs are likely to occur. Here, we identify a significant seasonal advance of intense TCs since the 1980s in most tropical oceans, with earlier-shifting rates of 3.7 and 3.2 days per decade for the Northern and Southern Hemispheres, respectively. This seasonal advance of intense TCs is closely related to the seasonal advance of rapid intensification events, favoured by the observed earlier onset of favourable oceanic conditions. Using simulations from multiple global climate models, large ensembles and individual forcing experiments, the earlier onset of favourable oceanic conditions is detectable and primarily driven by greenhouse gas forcing. The seasonal advance of intense TCs will increase the likelihood of intersecting with other extreme rainfall events, which usually peak in summer6,7, thereby leading to disproportionate impacts.

Recent increases in tropical cyclone rapid intensification events in global offshore regions

Rapid intensification (RI) is an essential process in the development of strong tropical cyclones and a major challenge in prediction. RI in offshore regions is more threatening to coastal populations and economies. Although much effort has been devoted to studying basin-wide temporal-spatial fluctuations, variations of global RI events in offshore regions remain uncertain. Here, we show that compared with open oceans, where the annual RI counts do not show significant changes, offshore areas within 400 km of the coastline have experienced a significant increase in RI events, with the count tripling from 1980 to 2020. Furthermore, thermodynamic environments present more favorable conditions for this trend, and climate models show that global ocean warming has enhanced such changes. This work yields an important finding that an increasing threat of RI in coastal regions has occurred in the preceding decades, which may continue under a future warming climate.

Recent increase in rapid intensification events of tropical cyclones along China coast

Recent increase in rapid intensification events of tropical cyclones along China coast

Lightning-Based Tropical Cyclone Rapid Intensification Guidance

Abstract With several seasons of Geostationary Lightning Mapper (GLM) data, this work revisits incorporating lightning observations into operational tropical cyclone rapid intensification guidance. GLM provides freely available, real-time lightning data over the central and eastern North Pacific and North Atlantic Oceans. A long-term lightning dataset is needed to use GLM in a statistical–dynamical operational application to capture the relationship between lightning and the rare occurrence of rapid intensification. This work uses the World Wide Lightning Location Network (WWLLN) dataset from 2005 to 2017 to develop lightning-based predictors for rapid intensification guidance models. The models mimic the operational Statistical Hurricane Intensity Prediction Scheme Rapid Intensification Index and Rapid Intensification Prediction Aid frameworks. The frameworks are averaged to form a consensus as a means to isolate the impact of the lightning predictors. Two configurations for lightning predictors are assessed: a spatial configuration with 0–100-km inner core and 200–300-km rainband area for the preceding 6-h predictors and a temporal configuration with an inner core only for the preceding 0–1, 0–6, and 6–12 h. When tested on the 2018–21 seasons, the temporal configuration adds skill primarily to the 12–48-h forecasts when compared to the no-lightning version and rapid intensification operational consensus. When WWLLN is replaced with GLM, minor changes to the prediction are observed suggesting that this approach is suitable for operational applications and provides a new baseline for tropical cyclone lightning-based rapid intensification aids. Significance Statement The forecasting of rare, yet critical, tropical cyclone rapid intensification events continues to be challenging. The current operational tools to anticipate rapid intensity changes use a combination of numerical weather prediction–derived environmental conditions and satellite-based cloud top temperature variations of deep convection. Here, we use freely available Geostationary Lightning Mapper data, which provide independent information about convection, in similar intensity guidance frameworks using temporal and spatial aspects of lightning variability. Our results show an improvement in short-term (12–48 h) rapid intensification forecasts by using temporal lightning information, and our investigation highlights that users of Geostationary Lightning Mapper lightning information should be cognizant of the influence and impact of land on these observations.

A Rapid Intensification Deterministic Ensemble (RIDE) for the Joint Typhoon Warning Center’s Area of Responsibility

Abstract The Rapid Intensification Deterministic Ensemble (RIDE) is an operational method used to estimate the probability of tropical cyclone rapid intensification in the Joint Typhoon Warning Center’s area of responsibility. Inputs to RIDE are current intensity, storm latitude, intensity change forecasts from seven routinely available operational deterministic models of intensity change, and the number of those models exceeding their individual 90th percentile of intensity change. Deterministic model inputs come from four numerical weather prediction models, two statistical–dynamical models, and one purely statistical model. In RIDE, logistic regression combines the deterministic inputs to form a probabilistic rapid intensification forecast model. RIDE then also generates deterministic intensity forecasts from these probabilistic forecasts that serve as forecaster guidance and as input to intensity consensus aids. Results based on a year of independent verification suggest good reliability and discrimination with a general tendency to underpredict rapid intensification events, but with few false alarms. Significance Statement An operational tropical cyclone forecaster makes a forecast with deterministic and probabilistic intensity guidance tools at their disposal. These models have a varying degree of abilities for predicting both intensity change and rapid intensification. The forecaster faces a dilemma in how to combine this disparate guidance to anticipate rapid intensification events. Here, the RIDE model provides probability forecasts associated with rapid intensification at 12-, 24-, 36-, 48-, and 72-h lead times and associated deterministic forecasts. RIDE provides skillful rapid intensification forecasts and helps rectify this forecast dilemma.

Interhemispheric Coupling Study by Observations and Modelling (ICSOM): Concept, Campaigns, and Initial Results

AbstractAn international joint research project, entitled Interhemispheric Coupling Study by Observations and Modelling (ICSOM), is ongoing. In the late 2000s, an interesting form of interhemispheric coupling (IHC) was discovered: when warming occurs in the winter polar stratosphere, the upper mesosphere in the summer hemisphere also becomes warmer with a time lag of days. This IHC phenomenon is considered to be a coupling through processes in the middle atmosphere (i.e., stratosphere, mesosphere, and lower thermosphere). Several plausible mechanisms have been proposed so far, but they are still controversial. This is mainly because of the difficulty in observing and simulating gravity waves (GWs) at small scales, despite the important role they are known to play in middle atmosphere dynamics. In this project, by networking sparsely but globally distributed radars, mesospheric GWs have been simultaneously observed in seven boreal winters since 2015/16. We have succeeded in capturing five stratospheric sudden warming events and two polar vortex intensification events. This project also includes the development of a new data assimilation system to generate long‐term reanalysis data for the whole middle atmosphere, and simulations by a state‐of‐the‐art GW‐permitting general circulation model using the reanalysis data as initial values. By analyzing data from these observations, data assimilation, and model simulation, comprehensive studies to investigate the mechanism of IHC are planned. This paper provides an overview of ICSOM, but even initial results suggest that not only GWs but also large‐scale waves are important for the mechanism of the IHC.

Imprints of Millennial-Scale Monsoonal Events during the MIS3 Revealed by Stalagmite δ13C Records in China

Regions located on the Chinese Loess Plateau are sensitive to changes in the Asian monsoon because they are on the edge of the monsoon region. Based on six 230Th experiments and 109 sets of stable isotope data of LH36 from Lianhua Cave, Yangquan City, Shanxi Province, we obtained a paleoclimate record with an average resolution of 120 years from 54.5 to 41.1 ka BP during the MIS3 on the Chinese Loess Plateau. Both the Hendy test and the replication test indicated an equilibrium fractionation of stable isotopes during the stalagmite deposition. Comparison with four other independently-dated, high-resolution stalagmite δ13C records between 29°N and 41°N in the Asian monsoon region shows that the stalagmite δ13C records from different caves have good reproducibility during the overlapped growth period. We suggest that speleothem δ13C effectively indicates soil CO2 production in the overlying area of the cave, reflecting changes in the cave’s external environment and in the Asian summer monsoon. Five millennial-scale Asian summer monsoon intensification events correspond to the Dansgaard–Oeschger 10–14 cycles recorded in the Greenland ice core within dating errors, and the weak monsoon processes are closely related to stadials in the North Atlantic. The spatial consistency of stalagmite δ13C records in China suggests that the Asian summer monsoon and the related regional ecological environment fluctuations sensitively respond to climate changes at northern high latitudes through sea-air coupling on the millennial timescale.

A Tale of Two Vortex Evolutions: Using a High-Resolution Ensemble to Assess the Impacts of Ventilation on a Tropical Cyclone Rapid Intensification Event

Abstract The multiscale nature of tropical cyclone (TC) intensity change under moderate vertical wind shear was explored through an ensemble of high-resolution simulations of Hurricane Gonzalo (2014). Ensemble intensity forecasts were characterized by large short-term (36-h) uncertainty, with a forecast intensity spread of over 20 m s−1, due to differences in the timing of rapid intensification (RI) onset. Two subsets of ensemble members were examined, referred to as early-RI and late-RI members. The two ensemble groups displayed significantly different vortex evolutions under the influence of a nearby upper-tropospheric trough and an associated dry-air intrusion. Mid-to-upper-tropospheric ventilation in late-RI members was linked to a disruption of inner-core diabatic heating, a more tilted vortex, and vortex breakdown, as the simulated TCs transitioned from a vorticity annulus toward a monopole structure. A column-integrated moist static energy (MSE) budget revealed the important role of horizontal advection in depleting MSE from the TC core, while mesoscale subsidence beneath the dry-air intrusion acted to dry a deep layer of the troposphere. Eventually, the dry-air intrusion retreated from late-RI members as vertical wind shear weakened, the magnitude of vortex tilt decreased, and late-RI members began to rapidly intensify, ultimately reaching a similar intensity as early-RI members. Conversely, the vortex structures of early-RI members were shown to exhibit greater intrinsic resilience to tilting from vertical wind shear, and early-RI members were able to fend off the dry-air intrusion relatively unscathed. The different TC intensity evolutions can be traced back to differences in the initial TC vortex structure and intensity. Significance Statement Despite recent advances, tropical cyclone intensity forecasts struggle to accurately predict episodes of rapid intensification. Such forecasts become increasingly challenging when a storm is embedded within an environment of moderate vertical wind shear. This study uses an ensemble of high-resolution simulations to examine how environmental influences can affect the tropical cyclone vortex and precipitation structure, which, in turn, modulate the intensity of the storm and the onset of rapid intensification. We propose a feedback that exists where slightly weaker and less resilient vortices are more susceptible to ventilation from dry, environmental air, aided in part by differential advection from the tilted circulation, resulting in a degradation of vortex organization and a delayed onset of rapid intensification.

Analysis of the critical components of flash drought using the standardized evaporative stress ratio

Flash droughts develop rapidly (∼1 month timescale) and produce significant ecological, agricultural, and socioeconomical impacts. Recent advances in our understanding of flash droughts have resulted in methods to identify and quantify flash drought events. However, few studies have been done to isolate the individual rapid intensification and drought components of flash drought, which could further determine their causes, evolution, and predictability. This study utilized the standardized evaporative stress ratio (SESR) to quantify individual components of flash drought from 1979 – 2019, using evapotranspiration (ET) and potential evapotranspiration (PET) data from the North American Regional Reanalysis (NARR) dataset. The temporal change in SESR was utilized to quantify the rapid intensification component of flash drought. The drought component was also determined using SESR and compared to the United States Drought Monitor. The results showed that SESR was able to represent the spatial coverage of drought well for regions east of the Rocky Mountains. Furthermore, the rapid intensification component agreed well with previous flash drought studies, with the overall climatology of rapid intensification events showing similar hotspots to the flash drought climatology east of the Rocky Mountains. The rapid intensification climatology suggested areas west of the Rocky Mountains experience rapid drying more often than east of the Rocky Mountains.

A potential explanation for the global increase in tropical cyclone rapid intensification

Tropical cyclone rapid intensification events often cause destructive hurricane landfalls because they are associated with the strongest storms and forecasts with the highest errors. Multi-decade observational datasets of tropical cyclone behavior have recently enabled documentation of upward trends in tropical cyclone rapid intensification in several basins. However, a robust anthropogenic signal in global intensification trends and the physical drivers of intensification trends have yet to be identified. To address these knowledge gaps, here we compare the observed trends in intensification and tropical cyclone environmental parameters to simulated natural variability in a high-resolution global climate model. In multiple basins and the global dataset, we detect a significant increase in intensification rates with a positive contribution from anthropogenic forcing. Furthermore, thermodynamic environments around tropical cyclones have become more favorable for intensification, and climate models show anthropogenic warming has significantly increased the probability of these changes.

Diuretic use before and after transcatheter aortic valve implantation: a nationwide study

Abstract Background Transcatheter aortic valve implantation (TAVI) is the new standard of care in patients of older age with symptomatic severe aortic stenosis, and these patients often depend upon diuretics for symptom relief. Randomized clinical trials suggest that approximately one third of patients undergoing TAVI do not achieve symptom relief. Furthermore, some patients have more symptoms after intervention, but “real-life” data are lacking. Purpose We examined use of diuretic therapy before and one year after TAVI in order to identify the proportion of patients who had intensification of diuretic treatment after intervention as a proxy for more symptoms. We also examined baseline factors associated with an intensification event. Methods Using Danish nationwide registries, we identified all Danish citizens who underwent TAVI from January 1, 2008 to December 31, 2019 and were alive one year after the intervention. Diuretic use pre-TAVI and 1-year post-TAVI (based on prescription fillings) was divided into the following groups: 1) no use; 2) low diuretic use: 1–40 mg of furosemide (or equivalent bumetanide); 3) intermediate diuretic use: 41–120 mg of furosemide; and 4) high diuretic use: >120 mg furosemide. Diuretic intensification was defined as a change from one pre-TAVI diuretic group to a higher post-TAVI diuretic group. Factors associated with intensified diuretic treatment was examined with logistic regression. In this analysis of intensification, only patients who could potentially have an intensification event were included (i.e., no diuretic use, low diuretic use, or intermediate diuretic use groups). Results A total of 3,978 patients (median age 81 [interquartile range 77–85]; 54% men) undergoing TAVI were identified. Pre-TAVI, 1,279 (32%) had no diuretic use, 1,818 (46%) had low diuretic use and 881 (22%) had intermediate diuretic use. Overall, patients with pre-TAVI intermediate diuretic use had a greater burden of cardiovascular and non-cardiovascular comorbidities (higher prevalence of heart failure, atrial fibrillation, chronic kidney disease and diabetes) compared with those with no or low diuretic use. The distribution of age and sex was similar between diuretic groups. One year post-TAVI, 1,406 (35.3%) had no diuretic use, 1,635 (41.1%) had low diuretic use, 654 (16.4%) had intermediate diuretic use and 283 (7.1%) had high diuretic use (Figure 1). Overall, 1,077 (27%) patients had intensification of diuretic treatment one year after undergoing TAVI. Ischemic heart disease and chronic renal failure were associated with an intensification event (odds ratio 1.23 [95% CI 1.05–1.23] and 1.46 [95% CI 1.10–1.94], respectively). Conclusion Among patients undergoing TAVI not treated with high-dose diuretics at time of intervention, approximately 1 out of 4 patients had intensification of diuretic treatment one year after intervention. Ischemic heart disease and chronic renal failure were associated with intensification. Funding Acknowledgement Type of funding sources: None.

Trends in Global Tropical Cyclone Activity: 1990–2021

AbstractThis study investigates global tropical cyclone (TC) activity trends from 1990 to 2021, a period marked by largely consistent observational platforms. Several global TC metrics have decreased during this period, with significant decreases in hurricane numbers and Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE). Most of this decrease has been driven by significant downward trends in the western North Pacific. Globally, short‐lived named storms, 24‐hr intensification events of ≥50 kt day−1, and TC‐related damage have increased significantly. The increase in short‐lived named storms is likely due to technological improvements, while rapidly intensifying TC increases may be fueled by higher potential intensity. Damage increases are largely due to increased coastal assets. The significant decrease in hurricane numbers and global ACE are likely due to the trend toward a more La Niña‐like base state from 1990 to 2021, favoring North Atlantic TC activity and suppressing North and South Pacific TC activity.