Integrated Exposure Uptake Biokinetic Research Articles

Reduced risk estimations after remediation of lead (Pb) in drinking water at two US school districts

The risk of students to develop elevated blood lead from drinking water consumption at schools was assessed, which is a different approach from predictions of geometric mean blood lead levels. Measured water lead levels (WLLs) from 63 elementary schools in Seattle and 601 elementary schools in Los Angeles were acquired before and after voluntary remediation of water lead contamination problems. Combined exposures to measured school WLLs (first-draw and flushed, 50% of water consumption) and home WLLs (50% of water consumption) were used as inputs to the Integrated Exposure Uptake Biokinetic (IEUBK) model for each school. In Seattle an average 11.2% of students were predicted to exceed a blood lead threshold of 5μg/dL across 63 schools pre-remediation, but predicted risks at individual schools varied (7% risk of exceedance at a “low exposure school”, 11% risk at a “typical exposure school”, and 31% risk at a “high exposure school”). Addition of water filters and removal of lead plumbing lowered school WLL inputs to the model, and reduced the predicted risk output to 4.8% on average for Seattle elementary students across all 63 schools. The remnant post-remediation risk was attributable to other assumed background lead sources in the model (air, soil, dust, diet and home WLLs), with school WLLs practically eliminated as a health threat. Los Angeles schools instead instituted a flushing program which was assumed to eliminate first-draw WLLs as inputs to the model. With assumed benefits of remedial flushing, the predicted average risk of students to exceed a BLL threshold of 5μg/dL dropped from 8.6% to 6.0% across 601 schools. In an era with increasingly stringent public health goals (e.g., reduction of blood lead safety threshold from 10 to 5μg/dL), quantifiable health benefits to students were predicted after water lead remediation at two large US school systems.

An evaluation of lead concentrations in imported hot sauces

In the last decade, the U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) has issued several warnings and recalls for food products that exceed FDA standards for lead. Products containing chili peppers and salt were often suspected as sources of lead contamination, and included items such as candy that are routinely investigated. However, products such as hot sauces that contain similar ingredients have not been the focus of evaluations. This study quantified lead concentrations in imported hot sauces, evaluated product compliance to existing United States standards, and calculated potential dietary lead exposure for children using the Integrated Exposure Uptake Biokinetic Model. Finally, recommendations for reducing the risk of lead exposure from hot sauces are provided. Twenty-five (25) bottles of imported hot sauces manufactured in Mexico and South America were purchased in Clark County, Nevada. All hot sauces were analyzed for lead concentrations, pH, and leaded packaging. Hot sauces were analyzed by inductively coupled plasma mass spectrometry and packaging was analyzed using x-ray fluorescence technology. Four brands of hot sauces (16%) exceeded 0.1 ppm lead, the current FDA action level for lead in candy. Hot sauces with lead concentrations >0.1 ppm lead contained salt and were manufactured in Mexico. Subsequent analysis of additional lots of hot sauces exceeding 0.1 ppm lead revealed inconsistent lead concentrations between and within manufacturer lots. The lead concentrations of the plastic hot sauce lids ranged from below the limit of detection to 2,028 ppm lead. There was no association between lead concentrations in hot sauces and pepper type. These results indicate the need for more rigorous screening protocols for products imported from Mexico, the establishment of an applicable standard for hot sauce, and resources to allow for the enforcement of existing food safety policies. The data reported herein represent the first known investigation of lead concentrations in hot sauces.

Application of lead monitoring results to predict 0–7 year old children's exposure at the tap

Dwellings with/without a lead service line [LSL] were sampled for lead in tap water in Montreal, during different seasons. Short-term simulations using these results and the batchrun mode of the Integrated Exposure Uptake Biokinetic (IEUBK) model showed that children's exposure to lead at the tap in the presence of an LSL varies seasonally, and according to the type of dwelling. From July to March, for single-family homes, the estimated geometric mean [GM] blood lead level [BLL] decreased from 2.3–3.6 μg/dL to 1.5–2.5 μg/dL, depending on the children's age. The wide seasonal variations in lead exposure result in a minimal fraction (0–6%) of children with a predicted BLL >5 μg/dL in winter, as opposed to a significant proportion (5–25%) in summer. These estimations are in close agreement with the BLLs measured in Montreal children in fall and winter, and simulations using summer water lead levels illustrate the importance of measuring BLLs during the summer. Finally, simulations for wartime residences with long LSLs confirm the need to prioritize the control of this lead exposure from tap water.

Risk analysis of a residential area close to the tailing dams of an ex‐foundry

Several old mining sites in Latin America are unexpectedly turning into residential areas, posing a high health risk for its residents. Hence, we address the case of an old mineral processing plant and foundry, located in Chihuahua, Mexico. This study comprised site sampling, determination of Pb contents in the soil, and a risk analysis of the exposed child population via the Integrated Exposure Uptake Biokinetic Model (IEUBK, USEPA model). Three exposure scenarios were derived from the Pb concentrations found in soil and were classified as: maximum (A), average (B), and minimum (C). The IEUBK considered two amounts of soil intake: (350 mg/day) for areas without paved streets and (200 mg/day) for paved streets. Results show that 62% of the samples exceed the maximum permissible level recommended for lixiviates, which indicates the solubility and possible dispersion of metal contents. 90% of the samples exceed the permissible contents of Pb for residential use and 85% are above guidelines for industrial use. Results from the IEUBK model, considering unpaved streets, show that the average concentration of Pb in blood in scenarios A, B, and C were 79.94, 16.58, and 9.25 μg/dL, respectively. For communities with paved streets and under the same conditions, the amounts of Pb in blood decreased to 57.75, 11.57, and 4.18 μg/dL respectively. In both cases, the maximum permissible concentration of Pb in children's blood is exceeded. It is imperative to take the appropriate remediation measures in this site to reduce the Pb contents in the soil and to minimize the public health risk. © 2012 American Institute of Chemical Engineers Environ Prog, 32: 1150–1154, 2013

Contribution of lead in soil to children’s lead burden, an update

Blood lead levels in children in the USA have dropped dramatically since lead in food, air and drinking water was reduced. In inner cities and older residential areas, increased lead exposure may still be a problem because of dilapidated housing with high lead paint levels. In these areas, at mining sites and around smelters lead levels in soil may be very high. A review of many studies indicates that lead in soil or mine tailings does not make a meaningful contribution to lead absorption by children. The contribution of lead in soil to overall exposure, if any, lies within the variation of the analytical method for blood lead measurements. The results of exposure studies in the pediatric population reviewed in this article do not support exposure predictions for children under 6 years of age based on the US EPA Integrated Exposure Uptake Biokinetic Model (using default parameters or using results obtained with in vitro digestion models). They also do not support predictions based on the percent of solubility of lead in soil (accessibility studies).

Particle size distributions, size concentration relationships, and adherence to hands of selected geologic media derived from mining, smelting, and quarrying activities

Hand-to-mouth activity, especially in children, is a potentially significant pathway of exposure to soil contaminants. Hand-mouthing behavior is of particular concern in areas impacted by mining, smelting, and quarrying activities as these activities may lead to elevated levels of heavy metals in soil. In order to estimate potential exposures to contaminated geologic media attributable to hand-to-mouth contact, it is useful to characterize adherence of those media to skin, as contaminant concentrations in adhered media may differ greatly from unfractionated, whole media concentrations. Such an investigation has been undertaken to aid estimation of exposures to arsenic, cadmium, lead, and zinc in nine different geologic media collected in the Pacific Northwest region of the United States. After establishing the particle size distribution of each medium (fractions < 63 μm, 63–150 μm, 150–250 μm, and 250 μm–2 mm were determined) and target elemental concentrations within each particle size fraction, an active handling protocol involving six volunteers was conducted. Wet media always adhered to a greater extent than dry media and adhered media generally had higher elemental concentrations than bulk media. Regression analyses suggest smaller particle fractions may have higher elemental concentrations. Results of application of a maximum likelihood estimation technique generally indicate that handling of dry media leads to preferential adherence of smaller particle sizes, while handling of wet media does not. Because adhered material can differ greatly in particle size distribution from that found in bulk material, use of bulk concentrations in exposure calculations may lead to poor estimation of actual exposures. Since lead has historically been a metal of particular concern, EPA's Integrated Exposure Uptake Biokinetic (IEUBK) Model was used to examine the potential consequences of evaluating ingestion of the selected media assuming concentrations in adhering versus bulk media.

Evaluation of the Contribution of Lead in Soil to Lead in Dust at Superfund Sites

ABSTRACT The concentration of lead in indoor dust is a key parameter in the Integrated Exposure Uptake Biokinetic (IEUBK) model used by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (USEPA) to evaluate risks to children from lead in soil. The default assumption is that the concentration of lead in indoor dust is 70% of the concentration of lead in outdoor soil. This report reviews the basis of this assumption, and compares the assumption to data obtained at mining/smelting Superfund sites in USEPA Region 8. Data for lead concentrations measured in both indoor dust and outdoor soil at a number of different properties at nine different Superfund sites were fit to a linear model (Cdust = K0 + Ksd·Csoil). Based on ordinary linear regression, values of Ksd ranged from 0.04 to 0.34. Values of Ksd estimated using a simple method to account for measurement errors yielded values from 0.04 to 0.35. These findings indicate that the concentration of lead in dust at mining/smelting sites in Region 8 is usually not as large as the IEUBK default assumption indicates. Use of the default is likely to be protective, but will likely result in an overestimation of childhood exposure and risk from lead in soil.

Exposure Assessment and Source Characterization of Lead in San Diego Latino Children

ISEE-784 Objective: Although it is clear that Latino children bear an additional burden of exposure to lead due to cultural factors (contaminated pottery and food products), the importance of this contribution is unknown. This study attempts to quantify the level of such cultural exposures, juxtaposed with the usual environmental factors (contaminated soil, paint, house dust, and drinking water). A combination of epidemiologic (multivariate regression) and toxicological (pharmacokinetic modeling) approaches will be used to estimate and model exposure. Materials and Methods: Households in 12 City of San Diego zip codes with high levels of Latino residents, speaking Spanish at home and have elevated blood lead levels were selected via simple random sampling of a commercial address list. Data were collected via questionnaires; dust, soil, and water samples taken in and around the residence; and culturally-appropriate in-home phlebotomy offered at no cost. Results: A total of 128 households containing 166 Latino children aged 12 to 71 months in innercity San Diego were enrolled into the study. Extensive data were collected on participants, including sociologic data related to Latino identity and degree of acculturation; household activities implicated in lead exposure; consumption of Mexican candies and food prepared in Mexican pottery; child behaviors implicated in lead exposure; and health care access and utilization. Blood lead testing was offered to all children; 89% accepted and an additional 4% provided recent test results. Preliminary results are presented, including descriptive statistics and univariate associations between blood lead level and the principal exposure factors. Conclusions: Further analysis will use the Integrated Exposure Uptake Biokinetic Model for Lead in Children (IEUBK) to estimate the relative contributions of all exposure factors for all individual participants. This information is necessary to design appropriate interventions for this group of children with extraordinary exposures to lead.

Use of the IEUBK Model for Determination of Exposure Routes in View of Site Remediation

ABSTRACT The Integrated Exposure Uptake Biokinetic (IEUBK) model is frequently used to estimate blood lead concentrations of children exposed to lead. Simulations with the IEUBK model were run to estimate the blood lead concentration in children living in the vicinity of a non-ferrous plant, situated in Hoboken, Belgium. Concentrations in soil ranged from 59–2425 mg Pb/kg dm, average concentrations in house dust ranged from 234–73394 mg Pb/kg dm. Measured blood lead concentrations in children aged 2–7 years were between 3 and 35 μ g/dl. Exposure sources were indoor dust in the house and the school, outdoor dust and soil in the home surrounding and at the school's playground, and suspended dust in the air. Soil ingestion values and lead exposure from food were changed to Flemish values. The model was able to predict the measured blood lead concentrations adequately except for the lowest exposure group. Predictions showed a systematic overestimation. Analysis of the data revealed that the neighbourhood's sc...

Assessment of the Output Distribution in the IEUBK Model with Monte Carlo Simulation

P-636 Abstract: The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency's Integrated Exposure Uptake BioKinetic (IEUBK) model for lead in children permits to estimate children's blood lead levels by integrating exposure from lead in air, food, water, soil, dust and other sources with pharmacokinetic modelling. The model is based on three successive components: exposure, uptake, and biokinetic. Based on the available deterministic information about parameter's exposure, absorption and biokinetic to lead, the IEUBK model produces a geometric mean blood lead concentration for a lognormal probability distribution that is used to describe the blood lead level's inter-individual variability for children exposed to similar environmental concentrations. This permits to include differences in behaviour, population heterogeneity and individual patterns of lead uptake and biokinetic. The lognormal is suggested since it is generally accepted as a plausible model for products of a number of independent components and is natural in the case of non-negative environmental quantities. However, it is arbitrary and its instantiated use can lead to unrealistic decision-making in the risk management. Moreover, this distribution is used in conjunction with a deterministic geometric standard deviation derived from empirical studies, independently from input parameters. To remove this subjective variability, we have coded the model to carry out Monte Carlo simulations on input variables corresponding to children's disparity. The Monte Carlo procedure on IEUBK model attributes variability as input factor distributions directly and allows to obtain the blood lead concentration's distribution which conveys the output variability. Simulation results and scenario will be presented and the two versions will be discussed using statistical principles to compare the two outputs. Also, sensitivity analysis is shown to help in focalising on the major aspects of these models to affect the input distributions.

Use of the IEUBK Model for Determination of Exposure Routes in View of Site Remediation

ABSTRACT The Integrated Exposure Uptake Biokinetic (IEUBK) model is frequently used to estimate blood lead concentrations of children exposed to lead. Simulations with the IEUBK model were run to estimate the blood lead concentration in children living in the vicinity of a non-ferrous plant, situated in Hoboken, Belgium. Concentrations in soil ranged from 59–2425 mg Pb/kg dm, average concentrations in house dust ranged from 234–73394 mg Pb/kg dm. Measured blood lead concentrations in children aged 2–7 years were between 3 and 35 μ g/dl. Exposure sources were indoor dust in the house and the school, outdoor dust and soil in the home surrounding and at the school's playground, and suspended dust in the air. Soil ingestion values and lead exposure from food were changed to Flemish values. The model was able to predict the measured blood lead concentrations adequately except for the lowest exposure group. Predictions showed a systematic overestimation. Analysis of the data revealed that the neighbourhood's school is an important source of exposure to lead; indoor house dust dominates exposure for children going to school outside the area, because of the high concentrations of lead in indoor dust (3 to 5 times higher than in outdoor soil).

Risks to children from exposure to lead in air during remedial or removal activities at Superfund sites: a case study of the RSR lead smelter Superfund site.

Superfund sites that are contaminated with lead and undergoing remedial action generate lead-enriched dust that can be released into the air. Activities that can emit lead-enriched dust include demolition of lead smelter buildings, stacks, and baghouses; on-site traffic of heavy construction vehicles; and excavation of soil. Typically, air monitoring stations are placed around the perimeter of a site of an ongoing remediation to monitor air lead concentrations that might result from site emissions. The National Ambient Air Quality (NAAQ) standard, established in 1978 to be a quarterly average of 1.5 microg/m(3), is often used as a trigger level for corrective action to reduce emissions. This study explored modeling approaches for assessing potential risks to children from air lead emissions from the RSR Superfund site in West Dallas, TX, during demolition and removal of a smelter facility. The EPA Integrated Exposure Uptake Biokinetic (IEUBK) model and the International Commission of Radiologic Protection (ICRP) lead model were used to simulate blood lead concentrations in children, based on monitored air lead concentrations. Although air lead concentrations at monitoring stations located in the downwind community intermittently exceeded the NAAQ standard, both models indicated that exposures to children in the community areas did not pose a significant long-term or acute risk. Long-term risk was defined as greater than 5% probability of a child having a long-term blood lead concentration that exceeded 10 microg/dl, which is the CDC and the EPA blood lead concern level. Short-term or acute risk was defined as greater than 5% probability of a child having a blood lead concentration on any given day that exceeded 20 microg/dl, which is the CDC trigger level for medical evaluation (this is not intended to imply that 20 microg/dl is a threshold for health effects in children exposed acutely to airborne lead). The estimated potential long-term and short-term exposures at the downwind West Dallas community did not result in more than 5% of children exceeding the target blood lead levels. The models were also used to estimate air lead levels for short-term and long-term exposures that would not exceed specified levels of risk (risk-based concentrations, RBCs). RBCs were derived for various daily exposure durations (3 or 8 h/day) and frequencies (1-7 days/week). RBCs based on the ICRP model ranged from 0.3 (7 days/week, 8 h/day) to 4.4 microg/m(3) (1 day/week, 3 h/day) for long-term exposures and were lower than those based on the IEUBK model. For short-term exposures, the RBCs ranged from 3.5 to 29.0 microg/m(3). Recontamination of remediated residential yards from deposition of air lead emitted during remedial activities at the RSR Superfund site was also examined. The predicted increase in soil concentration due to lead deposition at the monitoring station, which represented the community at large, was 3.0 mg/kg. This potential increase in soil lead concentration was insignificant, less than 1% increase, when compared to the clean-up level of 500 mg/kg developed for residential yards at the site.

A simple and fast screening test to detect soils polluted by lead

Lead pollution is an environmental priority. The evaluation of contaminated soils was often based on the results of the toxicity characteristic leaching procedure (TCLP) or the synthetic precipitation leaching procedure (SPLP). This paper presents a simple and fast screening test to detect soil contaminated by lead. The test is based on the chemistry of the stomach (Cl − concentration, pH 2, T=37 °C) and simulates the incidental oral ingestion of soil by young children. The gastric juice simulation test (GJST) and the TCLP were applied to six size fractions from five soils. The GJST solubilized more Pb (up to 169 mg/l) than the TCLP especially for the smallest size fraction. Particle size had less effect on the TCLP. The percentage of lead released with the GJST, was most significant for the <63 μm size fraction and varied from 18 to 74% of the total lead content. Lead leached during the TCLP as a function of the total lead content showed poor linear regression coefficient ( R) values for soils <250 μm. R values were significant for all size fractions with the GJST. The pH of approximately 5 in the TCLP limits the solubilization of lead in the small size fractions. The five soils exceeded the toxicity threshold of 10 μgPb/dl of blood for a significant fraction of children between 0 and 36 months using the EPA's IEUBK model (Integrated Exposure Uptake Biokinetic). But the TCLP did not detect lead contamination in two of these five soils. The GJST proved to be a better estimator of lead bioaccessibility in the gastrointestinal tract.

Further Comparisons of Empirical and Epidemiological Data with Predictions of the Integrated Exposure Uptake Biokinetic Model for Lead in Children

Observed blood lead levels for young children from several communities are compared with blood lead levels predicted for those communities using the USEPA's Integrated Exposure Uptake Biokinetic (IEUBK) Model. In contrast to the compari sons described elsewhere, the blood lead levels observed in the communities con sidered here are not well represented by the model's predictions. The model's predictions for Midvale, UT; Sandy, UT; Cincinnati, OH; and a recent data set for Palmerton, PA, show considerable deviation from observation both for the geometric mean blood lead level and the percent of blood lead levels above 10 µg/dL. Various adjustments in the model to consider play area soils, site specific geometric standard deviations and the time children spend away from their homes do not substantially improve the comparisons to observation. It is difficult to predict a priori the data sets for which the model will yield adequate predictions. This reduces the value of the model for use in communities where blood lead measurements have not been made, and suggests that caution should be exercised when using the model to set soil lead cleanup levels or to predict the result of remediation.

Lead-contaminated imported tamarind candy and children's blood lead levels.

In 1999, an investigation implicated tamarind candy as the potential source of lead exposure for a child with a significantly elevated blood lead level (BLL). The Oklahoma City-County Health Department tested two types of tamarind suckers and their packaging for lead content. More than 50% of the tested suckers exceeded the US Food and Drug Administration (FDA) Level of Concern for lead in this type of product. The authors calculated that a child consuming one-quarter to one-half of either of the two types of suckers in a day would exceed the maximum FDA Provis onal Tolerable Intake for lead. High lead concentrations in the two types of wrappers suggested leaching as a potential source of contamination. The authors used the Environmental Protection Agency's Integrated Exposure Uptake Biokinetic (IEUBK) model to predict the effects of consumption of contaminated tamarind suckers on populat on BLLs. The IEUBK model predicted that consumption of either type of sucker at a rate of one per day would result in dramatic increases in mean BLLs for children ages 6-84 months in Oklahoma and in the percentage of children wth elevated BLLs (> or =10 micrograms per deciliter [microg/dL]). The authors conclude that consumption of these products represents a potential public health threat. In addition, a history of lead contamination in imported tamarind products suggests that import control measures may not be completely effective in preventing additional lead exposure.

Application of a Probabilistic Risk Assessment Methodology to a Lead Smelter Site

Exposure of children to lead in the environment was assessed at the Murray Smelter Superfund site using both a deterministic risk assessment approach, the Integrated Exposure Uptake Biokinetic (IEUBK) model, and a probabilistic approach, the Integrated Stochastic Exposure (ISE) model. When site-specific data on lead in environmental media were input as point estimates into the IEUBK model, unacceptable risks were predicted for children living within five of eight study zones. The predicted soil cleanup goal was 550 ppm. Concentration and exposure data were then input into the ISE model as probability distribution functions and a one-dimensional Monte Carlo analysis (ID MCA) was run to predict the expected distribution of exposures and blood lead values. Uncertainty surrounding these predictions was examined in a two-dimensional Monte Carlo analysis (2-D MCA). The ISE model predicted risks that were in the same rank order as those predicted by the IEUBK model, although the probability estimates of exceeding a blood lead level of 10 µg/dl (referred to as the P10) from the ISE model were uniformly lower than those predicted by the IEUBK model. The 2-D MCA allowed evaluation of the confidence around each P10 level, and identified the main sources of both uncertainty and variability in exposure estimates. The ISE model suggested cleanup goals ranging from 1300 to 1500 ppm might be protective at this site.

Application of a Probabilistic Risk Assessment Methodology to a Lead Smelter Site

Exposure of children to lead in the environment was assessed at the Murray Smelter Superfund site using both a deterministic risk assessment approach, the Integrated Exposure Uptake Biokinetic (IEUBK) model, and a probabilistic approach, the Integrated Stochastic Exposure (ISE) model. When site-specific data on lead in environmental media were input as point estimates into the IEUBK model, unacceptable risks were predicted for children living within five of eight study zones. The predicted soil cleanup goal was 550 ppm. Concentration and exposure data were then input into the ISE model as probability distribution functions and a one-dimensional Monte Carlo analysis (ID MCA) was run to predict the expected distribution of exposures and blood lead values. Uncertainty surrounding these predictions was examined in a two-dimensional Monte Carlo analysis (2-D MCA). The ISE model predicted risks that were in the same rank order as those predicted by the IEUBK model, although the probability estimates of exceeding a blood lead level of 10 µg/dl (referred to as the P10) from the ISE model were uniformly lower than those predicted by the IEUBK model. The 2-D MCA allowed evaluation of the confidence around each P10 level, and identified the main sources of both uncertainty and variability in exposure estimates. The ISE model suggested cleanup goals ranging from 1300 to 1500 ppm might be protective at this site.

Calculating the interindividual geometric standard deviation for use in the integrated exposure uptake biokinetic model for lead in children.

The integrated exposure uptake biokinetic (IEUBK) model, recommended for use by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency at residential Superfund sites to predict potential risks to children from lead exposure and to establish lead remediation levels, requires an interindividual geometric standard deviation (GSDi) as an essential input parameter. The GSDi quantifies the variability of blood lead concentrations for children exposed to similar environmental concentrations of lead. Estimates of potential risks are directly related to the GSDi, and therefore the GSDi directly impacts the scope of remediation at Superfund sites. Site-specific GSDi can be calculated for sites where blood lead and environmental lead have been measured. This paper uses data from blood and environmental lead studies conducted at the Bingham Creek and Sandy, Utah, Superfund sites to calculate GSDi using regression modeling, box modeling, and structural equation modeling. GSDis were calculated using various methods for treating values below the analytical method detection and quantitation limits. Treatment of nonquantifiable blood lead concentrations affected the GSDi more than the statistical method used to calculate the GSDi. For any given treatment, the different statistical methods produced similar GSDis. Because of the uncertainties associated with data in the blood lead studies, we recommend that a range of GSDis be used when analyzing site-specific risks associated with exposure to environmental lead instead of a single estimate. Because the different statistical methods produce similar GSDis, we recommend a simple procedure to calculate site-specific GSDi from a scientifically sound blood and environmental lead study.

Calculating the Interindividual Geometric Standard Deviation for Use in the Integrated Exposure Uptake Biokinetic Model for Lead in Children

Calculating the Interindividual Geometric Standard Deviation for Use in the Integrated Exposure Uptake Biokinetic Model for Lead in Children

Integrated exposure uptake biokinetic model for lead in children: empirical comparisons with epidemiologic data.

The concept of model validation is evolving in the scientific community. This paper addresses the comparison of observed and predicted estimates as one component of model validation as applied to the integrated exposure uptake biokinetic (IEUBK) model for lead in children. The IEUBK model is an exposure (dose)-response model that uses children's environmental lead exposures to estimate risk of elevated blood lead (typically > 10 micrograms/dl) through estimation of lead body burdens in a mass balance framework. We used residence-specific environmental lead measurements from three epidemiologic datasets as inputs for the IEUBK model to predict blood lead levels, and compared these predictions with blood lead levels of children living at these residences. When the IEUBK modeling focused on children with representative exposure measurements, that is, children who spent the bulk of their time near the locations sampled, there was reasonably close agreement between observed and predicted blood lead distributions in the three studies considered. Geometric mean observed and predicted blood lead levels were within 0.7 microgram/dl, and proportions of study populations expected to be above 10 micrograms/dl were within 4% of those observed.