Abstract
P-636 Abstract: The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency's Integrated Exposure Uptake BioKinetic (IEUBK) model for lead in children permits to estimate children's blood lead levels by integrating exposure from lead in air, food, water, soil, dust and other sources with pharmacokinetic modelling. The model is based on three successive components: exposure, uptake, and biokinetic. Based on the available deterministic information about parameter's exposure, absorption and biokinetic to lead, the IEUBK model produces a geometric mean blood lead concentration for a lognormal probability distribution that is used to describe the blood lead level's inter-individual variability for children exposed to similar environmental concentrations. This permits to include differences in behaviour, population heterogeneity and individual patterns of lead uptake and biokinetic. The lognormal is suggested since it is generally accepted as a plausible model for products of a number of independent components and is natural in the case of non-negative environmental quantities. However, it is arbitrary and its instantiated use can lead to unrealistic decision-making in the risk management. Moreover, this distribution is used in conjunction with a deterministic geometric standard deviation derived from empirical studies, independently from input parameters. To remove this subjective variability, we have coded the model to carry out Monte Carlo simulations on input variables corresponding to children's disparity. The Monte Carlo procedure on IEUBK model attributes variability as input factor distributions directly and allows to obtain the blood lead concentration's distribution which conveys the output variability. Simulation results and scenario will be presented and the two versions will be discussed using statistical principles to compare the two outputs. Also, sensitivity analysis is shown to help in focalising on the major aspects of these models to affect the input distributions.
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