Principle Of Indifference Research Articles

Association between recent herpes zoster but not herpes simplex infection and subsequent risk of malignancy in women: a retrospective cohort study.

The association between herpes zoster and subsequent cancer risk is still unclear. Consequently, doubts remain regarding the need for investigation of herpes patients for co-existing or subsequent malignancy. This is a retrospective cohort study comparing cancer risk in patients after herpes zoster and age-/sex-matched non-herpes zoster patients, in a primary care-based continuous morbidity database. We tested for interaction by gender, age, diabetes, HRT use or antiviral therapy. Analyses were repeated for patients with and without herpes simplex. The hazard ratio (HR) comparing cancer risk in herpes zoster vs. control patients was significant in all women, women aged > 65 years and subgroups of breast and colorectal cancer (HRs 1·60, 1·82, 2·14, 2·19, respectively). For men, a significant association was found for haematological cancers (HR 2·92). No associations were found with herpes simplex. No interaction was identified with antiviral therapy, diabetes or HRT treatment. We concluded that there was a moderate significant association between herpes zoster and subsequent cancer risk in women aged > 65 years, without any influence of antiviral therapy. No association was found with herpes simplex. There is insufficient reason for extensively testing older patients with herpes zoster or herpes simplex for the presence of occult cancer.

Patient‐specific QA for IMRT should be performed using software rather than hardware methods

Suggestions for topics suitable for these Point/Counterpoint debates should be addressed to Colin G. Orton, Professor Emeritus, Wayne State University, Detroit: ortonc@comcast.net. Persons participating in Point/Counterpoint discussions are selected for their knowledge and communicative skill. Their positions for or against a proposition may or may not reflect their personal opinions or the positions of their employers.

ASSA13-08-9 Six Years‘ Experience with Continuous Suture Annuloplasty For Nonischemic Aetiology Mitral Valve Repair

Objective The aim of this study was to assess the durability of the continuous suture annuloplasty for nonischemic aetiology mitral valve repair and find out predictors of residual mitral regurgitation in the early postoperative period and its progression at the long-term period. Methods Between 2007 and 2012, 129 elective consecutive patients (58.1% males; age, 55 ± 12 years) underwent simple or complex mitral valve repair. For correction of annular dilatation, we used double-running 2–0 «Ethibond ® » sutures to reduce and reinforce the posterior circumference of the annulus. Patients were investigated prospectively by means of transthoracic echocardiography before discharge and 1 and 3 years after the operation. The mean follow up was 38 ± 15 months (range 8–72 months). Results The operative mortality was 0.0%. Transthoracic echocardiography evaluation at 1 and 3 years showed acceptable mean transvalvular gradients (3.9 ± 1.5 and 4.0 ± 1.3 mm Hg, respectively) and absence of progression of annular dilatation 27.7 ± 3.3 at 1 year and 27.8 ± 3.6 mm at 3 years. Freedom from nontrivial residual mitral regurgitation was 86%, freedom from reoperation was 94% and actuarial survival was 94%, all at 72 months. Patients with residual mitral regurgitation had preoperative left atrium size more than 60 mm, left ventricle end-diastolic size and volume > 64 mm and 220 ml, respectively. Another two predictors were mitral annulus size more than 28 mm after correction and anterior leaflet prolapse. In patients with raised degree of mitral insufficiency at the long-term period, leaflets and chords structural changes progression were registered. Conclusions The midterm results show satisfactory hemodynamic performance and absence of mitral regurgitation progression due to annular redilatation. Valve competence and reoperation rates are comparable with those of other reports. Predictors for residual mitral regurgitation were preoperative size and volume of left chambers, degree of mitral annulus reduction and anterior leaflet prolapse. The main reason for mitral insufficiency at the long-term period was leaflets and chords structural changes progression.

The Age of the Earth & Its Importance to Biology

Biology textbooks tend to assert the correctness of evolutionary concepts but mention very little of the evidence that supports them. This gives the impression that evolutionary theory is poorly supported, which discourages acceptance of the theory. A case in point is the age of the Earth. Biology textbooks usually mention that the planet is ~4.6 billion years old but neither tell how that was determined nor give evidence that the method (radiometric dating) is reliable. Students are therefore given insufficient reason to doubt that the Earth is any older than the 6000 years that the Genesis account suggests. Here, therefore, I review the evidence for an old Earth, to provide a concise but thorough reference for teachers who wish to supplement the meager information in textbooks with further details. Earth’s age is relevant to biology because an old Earth is necessary for macroevolution to occur and also because some dating methods (e.g., dendrochronology, varves) use materials of biological origin.

“V-PLASTY”: a novel technique to reconstruct pulmonary valvular and annular stenosis in patients with right ventricular outflow tract obstruction

BackgroundThe goal of repair of right ventricular outflow tract obstruction with or without Tetralogy of Fallot (TOF) is to eliminate valvular and/or subvalvular obstruction. However, this operation has a high risk of late complication of pulmonary insufficiency. In this study, we aimed to present early period results of our new technique that we call “V-Plasty” developed to prevent pulmonary insufficiency after pulmonary valve reconstruction in selected patients.MethodsBetween January 2006 and January 2010, we performed V-plasty for pulmonary valve reconstruction in 10 patients. Eight patients (5 males, 3 females) had TOF and 2 patients (1 male, 1 female) had atrial septal defect concomitant with pulmonary valve stenosis. Patient selection for V-plasty reconstruction was made due to the pulmonary valve anatomy and degree of stenosis. The mean follow-up time was 55.7 ± 16.2 months (ranging from 32 to 80 months).ResultsFunctional capacity of the patients improved immediately after the surgery. There were no mortality and re-operation in follow-up period. Patients were followed up with echocardiography one week after the operation, at 1st, 6th, 12th months and annually. There was no pulmonary insufficiency.ConclusionsOperative correction of the pulmonary outflow tract obstruction with or without TOF, frequently requires transannular enlargement because of the infundibular and/or annular-valvular obstruction. This conventional technique is usually a reason for late pulmonary insufficiency. In our study, we have not seen pulmonary insufficiency in early term follow-up period. Our early term results are encouraging, but long term follow-up results are needed with large case series.

Envisioning a Thoughtful and Caring Child Welfare System

sidney goldberg studied at New York University and also with psychologist Albert Ellis, founder of Rational Emotive Behavior Therapy. He now works as a college counselor in New York City. The child welfare system in the United States is not living up to its name. Rather than nurturing the intellectual potential, capacity for joy, and emotional wellness of foster children, the system too often takes a narrow approach to maintaining only the children’s physical well-being. I speak from my experience as a caseworker, administrator, and creator of a unique program in child welfare. Twenty-five years of butting up against the constraints of this system have made clear to me that the problem is structural. The occasional caseworker who would seek to nurture a child’s potential interests or passions would usually be thwarted by the limited paradigm around which the system is constructed. Year after year, most caseworkers go through the motions, while heeding the entrenched and narrow mandates set forth by their agencies as the lives of children under their care stagnate. I believe another system is possible — one that starts from the foundational premise that all people are capable of building satisfying lives through the pursuit of their interests — and that is staffed by workers who treat children and their parents with deep care and respect. To create such a system, we will need to transform the entire structure and pedagogy of social work school, drawing on insights gained through a careful look at the problems with the current system.

From Bayesian epistemology to inductive logic

Inductive logic admits a variety of semantics (Haenni et al. (2011) [7, Part 1]). This paper develops semantics based on the norms of Bayesian epistemology (Williamson, 2010 [16, Chapter 7]). Section 1 introduces the semantics and then, in Section 2, the paper explores methods for drawing inferences in the resulting logic and compares the methods of this paper with the methods of Barnett and Paris (2008) [2]. Section 3 then evaluates this Bayesian inductive logic in the light of four traditional critiques of inductive logic, arguing (i) that it is language independent in a key sense, (ii) that it admits connections with the Principle of Indifference but these connections do not lead to paradox, (iii) that it can capture the phenomenon of learning from experience, and (iv) that while the logic advocates scepticism with regard to some universal hypotheses, such scepticism is not problematic from the point of view of scientific theorising.

How much ambiguity aversion?

Experimental results on the Ellsberg paradox typically reveal behavior that is commonly interpreted as ambiguity aversion. The experiments reported in the current paper find the objective probabilities for drawing a red ball that make subjects indifferent between various risky and uncertain Ellsberg bets. They allow us to examine the predictive power of alternative principles of choice under uncertainty, including the objective maximin and Hurwicz criteria, the sure-thing principle, and the principle of insufficient reason. Contrary to our expectations, the principle of insufficient reason performed substantially better than rival theories in our experiment, with ambiguity aversion appearing only as a secondary phenomenon.

Roger White's Argument against Imprecise Credences

According to the Imprecise Credence Framework (ICF), a rational believer's doxastic state should be modelled by a set of probability functions rather than a single probability function, namely, the set of probability functions allowed by the evidence (Joyce [2005]). Roger White ([2010]) has recently given an arresting argument against the ICF, which has garnered a number of responses. In this article, I attempt to cast doubt on his argument. First, I point out that it's not an argument against the ICF per se, but an argument for the Principle of Indifference. Second, I present an argument that's analogous to White's. I argue that if White's premises are true, the premises of this argument are too. But the premises of my argument entail something obviously false. Therefore, White's premises must not all be true. 1 Introduction2 White's Argument3 A Counterargument

In response to Gans: the culture–structure binary

Gans (2012; Against culture versus structure. Identities: Global Studies in Culture and Power, 19 (2), 125–134) makes four assertions in his claim that ‘Contemporary sociology is saddled with a culture–structure binary but the fault for its existence lies mostly with cultural sociology … and the culture–structure binary should be abandoned’. I argue that (1) defining culture, while problematic, is insufficient reason for abandoning the concept. (2) Marx, among others, proffered a dialectical view of culture that is not structural only or interpretive only. (3) Gans ignores the social and political impact of cultural studies, specifically the Birmingham Centre for Contemporary Cultural Studies. And (4) culturally oriented research has been used extensively to shape and analyse the varying approaches by public policy-makers to critical social issues.

Critical role of intraneuronal Aβ in Alzheimer's disease: Technical challenges in studying intracellular Aβ

AimsMultiple lines of evidence have implicated β-amyloid (Aβ) in the pathogenesis of Alzheimer's disease (AD). However, the mechanism(s) whereby Aβ is involved in the disease process remains unclear. The dominant hypothesis in AD has been that Aβ initiates the disease via toxicity from secreted, extracellular Aβ aggregates. More recently, an alternative hypothesis has emerged focusing on a pool of Aβ that accumulates early on within AD vulnerable neurons of the brain. Although the topic of intraneuronal Aβ has been of major interest in the field, technical difficulties in detecting intraneuronal Aβ have also made this topic remarkably controversial. Here we review evidence pointing to the critical role of intraneuronal Aβ in AD and provide insights both into challenges faced in detecting intracellular Aβ and the prion-like properties of Aβ. Main methodsImmunoprecipitation and Western blot are used for Aβ detection. Key findingsWe highlight that a standard biochemical method can underestimate intraneuronal Aβ and that extracellular Aβ can up-regulate intracellular Aβ. We also show that detergent can remove intraneuronal Aβ. SignificanceThere is a growing awareness that intraneuronal Aβ is a key pathogenic pool of Aβ involved in causing synapse dysfunction. Difficulties in detecting intraneuronal Aβ are an insufficient reason for ignoring this critical pool of Aβ.

Universal grain size distribution, most chaotic microstructures and tessellation condition

In this paper the probability distribution of grain sizes in the self-similar regime of grain growth is derived from the assumption that the grain boundary structure is the most chaotic. The grain size distribution obtained in this way does not contain fitting parameters and describes reasonably well the experimental data. The derivation is based on the suggested in the paper tessellation condition, the necessary and sufficient condition for a set of grains to fill the space without gaps and overlapping. The tessellation condition yields an infinite chain of constraints on the geometrical parameters of the grains. The derivation of the most chaotic grain size distribution employs only a few of these constraints, and, thus, the resulting distribution is approximate. It is checked that the incorporation of a few more constraints does not change the resulting distribution. Another aspect of the derivation is the notion of most chaotic microstructures as applied to polycrystal grains. This notion is introduced in accord with the Laplace principle of insufficient reasoning. Satisfactory description of experimental data indicates that the grain boundary structures developed in the self-similar regime of grain growth can be viewed as the most chaotic.

The corroboration paradox

Evidentiary propositions E1 and E2, each p-positively relevant to some hypothesis H, are mutually corroborating if p(H|E1 ∩ E2) > p(H|Ei), i = 1, 2. Failures of such mutual corroboration are instances of what may be called the corroboration paradox. This paper assesses two rather different analyses of the corroboration paradox due, respectively, to John Pollock and Jonathan Cohen. Pollock invokes a particular embodiment of the principle of insufficient reason to argue that instances of the corroboration paradox are of negligible probability, and that it is therefore defeasibly reasonable to assume that items of evidence positively relevant to some hypothesis are mutually corroborating. Taking a different approach, Cohen seeks to identify supplementary conditions that are sufficient to ensure that such items of evidence will be mutually corroborating, and claims to have identified conditions which account for most cases of mutual corroboration. Combining a proposed common framework for the general study of paradoxes of positive relevance with a simulation experiment, we conclude that neither Pollock’s nor Cohen’s claims stand up to detailed scrutiny. I am quite prepared to be told…”oh, thatis an extreme case: it could never really happen!” Now I have observed that this answer is always given instantly, with perfect confidence, and without any examination of the proposed case. It must therefore rest on some general principle: the mental process being something like this—“I have formed a theory. This case contradicts my theory. Therefore, this is an extreme case, and would never occur in practice.” Rev. Charles L. Dodgson

Management accounting system (MAS) change: field evidence

This paper critically discusses one of the prescriptions of traditional control literature according to which the management accounting system (MAS) should be adaptive to changes in the organizational and strategic context. Drawing from contingency and institutional theories, the paper drafts a framework to pragmatically identify key phases and features of the management accounting change process to highlight its organizational nature. Using this framework, the paper documents four longitudinal case studies of the design and the implementation of management accounting changes. The field studies show how accounting systems are difficult to change despite the formally acknowledged need for change. Findings highlight that the need for change, the technical feasibility of change, the availability of traditional, and the contemporary methodologies are – alone – insufficient reasons to change. A number of other elements interplay in the process of change, namely, the intended MAS use, the stage of the organization life cycle, the potential impact of change on the organization, and the role of key individuals in linking the phases of the change process.

A Meta-Analysis of Spurious Associations between Type D Personality and Cardiovascular Disease Endpoints

Denollet et al. claim that high social inhibition and negative affectivity, termed type D personality, predict negative cardiovascular disease outcomes, and notably mortality [1]. Our group noted that almost all research testing this hypothesis came from small studies from Denollet’s group at Tilburg University that for mortality had 4, 6, 8, 12, and 47 deaths to explain. We conducted the largest study of mortality to date, with 192 deaths being explained, recruited patients from some of the same hospitals used by the Tilburg group, but found no association between type D personality and mortality [2]. Our primary analyses retained the component social inhibition and negative affectivity as continuous variables and tested their interaction. Secondary analyses relied upon Denollet’s preferred method of dichotomizing social inhibition and negative affectivity, creating a 2 × 2 cross-tabulation, and then comparing the high/high type D quadrant to the other three. Our results were still null but we drew on our own work [3] and other sources [4] to caution that Denollet’s strategy was inappropriate and likely to produce spurious results, as did an accompanying editorial [5]. We provided data from our study to Grande et al. for inclusion in their meta-analyses [6]. Consistent with what they had done in all but one of their past and forthcoming studies, Grande et al. relied on Denollet’s strategy of data reduction and analysis, disregarding our caution that type D personality data is frequently inappropriately analyzed in this manner is insufficient reason for continuing to do so. In a further meta-analysis, Grande et al. combined multivariate analyses from Denollet et al. that consistently exceeded the number of allowable covariates, making spurious results likely. Problems in the credibility and generalizability of such overfit regression equations [7] are not overcome by simply integrating their results. Grande et al. found substantial heterogeneity and evidence of publication bias in their meta-analysis and should have further pursued that this was due to what they termed a striking rift between “very large effects in small studies and low or null effects from the largest studies,” [6] which were conducted outside the Tilburg group. The rate of positive findings in the Tilburg studies is considerably beyond what would have been predicted by a power analysis based on events being explained. Figure 3 in the meta-analysis article is misleading and obscures this problem, but the pattern is readily apparent in an examination of the meta-analysis' other forest plots and tables. Only after presenting their analyses, do Grande et al. concede “Our review cannot overcome some serious methodological shortcomings in Type D research,” Grande et al. then cataloged many of the criticisms of this research that we [2] had previously noted. Yet, they neither refuted these criticisms nor allowed them to influence how they conducted their meta-analysis. Instead, they ended with a declaration of the “urgency” for better studies of type D personality. Our assessment is that this literature is indeed ailing, but we believe that pulling the plug is better than keeping it on life support. There simply is no encouragement from adequately powered studies conducted outside the Tilburg group to continue this line of research. This would be apparent in a meta-analysis that used an appropriate statistical approach in calculating type D and accurately pointed to the source of the publication bias in studies sharing some characteristics: positive results from small samples, inappropriate statistics, and having been conducted by a single investigator group.

Effect of placenta previa on fetal growth restriction and stillbirth

To examine the association between placenta previa and adverse perinatal outcomes such as low birth weight, preterm delivery, stillbirth and fetal growth restriction (FGR). This retrospective cohort study includes 12,034 delivered pregnant women who were recruited for the study between 2004 and 2010 in Ege University Hospital. Data were collected by browsing the clinic's archives. The association between placenta previa and adverse perinatal outcomes was determined via Chi-square tests and Student's t test. Logistic regression analysis was used to adjust for confounding factors in evaluating the association between placenta previa and the adverse perinatal outcomes. There was no significant relationship between placenta previa and FGR or stillbirth. Low birth weight and preterm delivery were significantly higher in the placenta previa group. According to logistic regression analysis, low birth weight was associated with an OR of 3.01 (95% CI 2.05-4.52) and preterm delivery was associated with an OR of 8.14 (95% CI 5.60-11.83); while, placenta previa did not affect FGR and stillbirth significantly. Although there is no consensus on the association between placenta previa and FGR in previous studies, we suggest that placenta previa is not a reason for placental insufficiency. Management of placenta previa especially depends on maternal hemodynamic parameters such as heavy hemorrhage and hypotensive shock rather than fetal well-being protocols based on serial growth ultrasound and fetal Doppler investigation.

Student Teachers' Outlooks upon the Ethics of Their Mentors during Teaching Practice

The aim of this study is to describe student teachers' experiences of their mentors' ethical decisions during their teaching practice sessions for teacher education. The data was gathered from 201 prospective class and subject teachers who described from an ethical viewpoint both positive and negative mentoring experiences. The data analysis is mainly quantitative in nature. According to the results, an ethically successful mentor gives feedback, is student-centered, is fair and just, gives advice, gives enough support and listens carefully, is both flexible and demanding, and is a positive person. An ethically unsuccessful mentor is authoritative, refuses to give feedback, treats student teachers disrespectfully, is hard and critical, interrupts lessons with insufficient reason, discusses delicate and private issues with outsiders, and neglects certain basic tasks. These main findings are significantly supported by previous investigations.

Anisotropic heat transport in rigid solids

A nonlinear model of anisotropic rigid heat conductor is developed in the framework of weakly nonlocal Extended Irreversible Thermodynamics.The restrictions placed on the constitutive functions by the principles of dissipation and material frame indifference are investigated. Nonlinear anisotropic Guyer–Krumhansl and Maxwell–Cattaneo equations are derived. Comparison is made with some other models existing in the literature.

How Much Ambiguity Aversion? Finding Indifferences between Ellsberg's Risky and Ambiguous Bets

Experimental results on the Ellsberg paradox typically reveal behavior that is commonly interpreted as ambiguity aversion. The experiments reported in the current paper find the objective probabilities for drawing a red ball that make subjects indifferent between various risky and uncertain Ellsberg bets. They allow us to examine the predictive power of alternative principles of choice under uncertainty, including the objective maximin and Hurwicz criteria, the sure-thing principle, and the principle of insufficient reason. Contrary to our expectations, the principle of insufficient reason performed substantially better than rival theories in our experiment, with ambiguity aversion appearing only as a secondary phenomenon.

The Education Collaboration Fund: Possibilities and Limitations of Pooled Funds

· Raising money for a pooled fund is time consuming and requires expertise with the funding topic and the target audience. Yet the process of shopping around a pooled fund or collaborative concept can be valuable in its own right, even if most do not participate. · Shared interest around a topic or community is a necessary but insufficient reason for participating in a pooled fund. A pooled fund provides an opportunity for individuals and family foundations to learn and grow as donors. · Someone with passion, organizational skills, and persistence needs to drive the process forward or it will likely fall by the wayside. The gap between “emerging” and “organized” philanthropy is real, but may be ameliorated through technology. · Vehicle choice is straightforward: The underlying public charity and administrative processing can be handled by a donor-advised fund at a community foundation or federation, financial services firm, or intermediary.