Principle Of Indifference Research Articles

An Analysis of Jerzy Neyman's Imaginary, Non Existent, Principle of Indifference, Urn Ball Example Supposedly Taken from J M Keynes's A Treatise on Probability (1921)

Jerzy Neyman analyzed an imaginary, non existent, urn ball problem that he thought was taken from J M Keynes’s A Treatise on Probability in his Lectures and Conferences on Mathematical Statistics and Probability (1952). Neyman apparently never read the book for himself. He apparently relied on some, other, unknown source to provide him with the problem that he thought came from J M Keynes’s A Treatise on Probability.The problem can be analyzed based on an “as if” approach to discover if Neyman realized that Keynes’s Principle of Indifference is a substantially different technique from Laplace’s concoction that, when applied, will lead to substantially different answers from those obtained by the use of Laplace’s Principle of Non–Sufficient Knowledge.

The Ellsberg Paradox: A Challenge to Quantum Decision Theory?

We set up a simple quantum decision model of the Ellsberg paradox. We find that the matching probabilities that our model predict are in good agreement with those empirically measured by Dimmock et al. (2015). Our derivation is parameter free. It only depends on quantum probability theory in conjunction with the heuristic of insufficient reason. We suggest that much of what is normally attributed to probability weighting might actually be due to quantum probability.

The Principle of Indifference Does Not Lead to Contradictions

The Principle of Indifference says that if there are a finite number of propositions and a state of knowledge according to which none of the propositions is more plausible than any other, then, conditional on that knowledge, all of them have the same probability. Most researchers reject the principle because there exist counterexamples believed to prove that it leads to contradictions. We analyse three examples representative of the objections to the principle and show that, rather than disproving it, they suffer from a common error in applying it. From this and the fact that the Principle of Indifference complies with plausible reasoning we conclude that it does not lead to contradictions.

About endonasal laser dacryocystorhinostomy unfavorable outcomes

Dacryocystorhinostomy (DCRS) performed with a variety of surgical approaches is the most common surgical procedure aimed at restoring the tear outflow. However, regardless of the chosen method, surgery sometimes provides only temporary effect and requires re-intervention (revision). This article presents the analysis of clinical observation of a case series including 76 patients with lacrimal outflow impairment who, in 2014-2015, underwent endonasal endoscopic laser DCRS at the Otorhinolaryngology Department of the First Pavlov State Medical University of St. Petersburg. Among these, re-operation to restore the lacrimal passage was required necessary in 19.7% of cases. The authors concluded that the most frequent reasons of DCRS insufficiency are intractable individual anatomical features of nasal structures and/or lacrimal apparatus of the patients (including atypical anatomy of the lacrimal sac and nasolacrimal duct) and high regeneration ability of the nasal cavity mucous membrane. The probability of re-stenosis increases with previously performed DCRS with unstable result in the patient’s history, concomitant somatic general diseases (diabetes, arterial hypertension, etc.). These reasons may be successfully overcome when choosing an endoscopic approach with laser technology.

A geometric principle of indifference

That one's degrees of belief at any one time obey the axioms of probability theory is widely regarded as a necessary condition for static rationality. Many theorists hold that it is also a sufficient condition, but according to critics this yields too subjective an account of static rationality. However, there are currently no good proposals as to how to obtain a tenable stronger probabilistic theory of static rationality. In particular, the idea that one might achieve the desired strengthening by adding some symmetry principle to the probability axioms has appeared hard to maintain. Starting from an idea of Carnap and drawing on relatively recent work in cognitive science, this paper argues that conceptual spaces provide the tools to devise an objective probabilistic account of static rationality. Specifically, we propose a principle that derives prior degrees of belief from the geometrical structure of concepts.

Hyperbolic model for the classical Navier‐Stokes equations

AbstractA new formulation of the classical Navier‐Stokes equations is presented, which overcomes the equations' main disadvantage: being a mixed parabolic‐hyperbolic system. The new model is achieved by adopting the compressible codeformational time derivative in the stress‐strain constitutive relation, resulting in a consistency with the principle of material frame indifference. The main advantage of the new formulation is that the resulting system of equations is purely hyperbolic. The proposed formulation is used to model the benchmark problem of the shock/boundary layer/expansion fan interaction with an apparent degree of success.

Why Doomsday Arguments are Better than Simulation Arguments

AbstractInspired by anthropic reasoning behind Doomsday arguments, Nick Bostrom's Simulation Argument says: people who think advanced civilisations would run many fully‐conscious simulated minds should also think they're probably simulated minds themselves. However, Bostrom's conclusions can (and should) be resisted, especially by sympathisers with Doomsday or anthropic reasoning. This paper initially offers a posterior‐probabilistic ‘Doomsday lottery’ argument against Bostrom's conclusions. Suggestions are then offered for deriving anti‐simulation conclusions using weaker assumptions. Anti‐simulation arguments herein use more (epistemically and metaphysically) robust reference classes than Bostrom's argument, require no Principles of Indifference, abide better by the total evidence requirement, and yet use empirically plausible priors and likelihoods. However, while Doomsday arguments are probabilistically, epistemically and metaphysically stronger than the Simulation Argument, anthropic reasoning can (and should) refrain from embracing either.

On the modelling of complex kinematic hardening and nonquadratic anisotropic yield criteria at finite strains: application to sheet metal forming

In the present paper, a finite strain model for complex combined isotropic-kinematic hardening is presented. It accounts for finite elastic and finite plastic strains and is suitable for any anisotropic yield criterion. In order to model complex cyclic hardening phenomena, the kinematic hardening is described by several back stress components. To that end, a new procedure is proposed in which several multiplicative decompositions of the plastic part of the deformation gradient are considered. The formulation incorporates a completely general format of the yield function, which means that any yield function can by employed by following a procedure that ensures the principle of material frame indifference. The constitutive equations are derived in a thermodynamically consistent way and numerically integrated by means of a backward-Euler algorithm based on the exponential map. The performance of the constitutive model is assessed via numerical simulations of industry-relevant sheet metal forming processes (U-channel forming and draw/re-draw of a panel benchmarks), the results of which are compared to experimental data. The comparison between numerical and experimental results shows that the use of multiple back stress components is very advantageous in the description of springback. This holds in particular if one carries out a comparison with the results of using only one component. Moreover, the numerically obtained results are in excellent agreement with the experimental data.

Johannes von Kries’s Principien: A Brief Guide for the Perplexed

This paper has the aim of making Johannes von Kries’s masterpiece, Die Principien der Wahrscheinlichkeitsrechnung of 1886, a little more accessible to the modern reader in three modest ways: first, it discusses the historical background to the book (in particular, what Keynes later termed the “principle of indifference”); next, it summarizes the basic elements of von Kries’s approach (in particular, his “Principle of the Spielraum”); and finally, it examines the so-called “principle of cogent reason” with which von Kries’s name is often identified in the English literature.

DISQUALIFICATION OF CERTIFICATION BY HOSPITAL ACCREDITATION: PERCEPTIONS OF PROFESSIONAL STAFF

Descriptive, exploratory, qualitative study that aimed to analyze the perceptions of professional certification disqualification by the Hospital Accreditation. A hospital was selectedthat lost the title of Accredited with Excellence. Twenty-three professionals participated who were working in care or hospital management who, in May 2014, answered a semi-structured interview, recorded and guided by the question: "Tell me about the disqualification of the certification of this hospital by the Accreditation". Based on the transcription and thematic analysis of the interviews, three categories emerged: disqualification of certification by Accreditation: grounds mentioned by workers; negative feelings related to the certification of the discredit and Accreditation; Certification disqualification: insufficient reason for abandoning principles of Accreditation. It was concluded that the loss of certification by the Accreditation caused a deep sense of regret among workers. Nevertheless, to favor the quality of care, participants signaled that the essential principles of Accreditation and some implemented actions remain at the service.

A two-dimensional depth-averaged -rheology for dense granular avalanches

Steady uniform granular chute flows are common in industry and provide an important test case for new theoretical models. This paper introduces depth-integrated viscous terms into the momentum-balance equations by extending the recent depth-averaged ${\it\mu}(I)$-rheology for dense granular flows to two spatial dimensions, using the principle of material frame indifference or objectivity. Scaling the cross-slope coordinate on the width of the channel and the velocity on the one-dimensional steady uniform solution, we show that the steady two-dimensional downslope velocity profile is independent of scale. The only controlling parameters are the channel aspect ratio, the slope inclination angle and the frictional properties of the chute and the sidewalls. Solutions are constructed for both no-slip conditions and for a constant Coulomb friction at the walls. For narrow chutes, a pronounced parabolic-like depth-averaged downstream velocity profile develops. However, for very wide channels, the flow is almost uniform with narrow boundary layers close to the sidewalls. Both of these cases are in direct contrast to conventional inviscid avalanche models, which do not develop a cross-slope profile. Steady-state numerical solutions to the full three-dimensional ${\it\mu}(I)$-rheology are computed using the finite element method. It is shown that these solutions are also independent of scale. For sufficiently shallow channels, the depth-averaged velocity profile computed from the full solution is in excellent agreement with the results of the depth-averaged theory. The full downstream velocity can be reconstructed from the depth-averaged theory by assuming a Bagnold-like velocity profile with depth. For wide chutes, this is very close to the results of the full three-dimensional calculation. For experimental validation, a laser profilometer and balance are used to determine the relationship between the total mass flux in the chute and the flow thickness for a range of slope angles and channel widths, and particle image velocimetry (PIV) is used to record the corresponding surface velocity profiles. The measured values are in good quantitative agreement with reconstructed solutions to the new depth-averaged theory.

Should uterus transplants be publicly funded?

Since 2000, 11 human uterine transplantation procedures (UTx) have been performed across Europe and Asia. Five of these have, to date, resulted in pregnancy and four live births have now...

О ГЕОМЕТРИЧЕСКИ НЕЛИНЕЙНЫХ ОПРЕДЕЛЯЮЩИХ СООТНОШЕНИЯХ УПРУГОГО МАТЕРИАЛА

In the field of solid mechanics it is often necessary to use constitutive (physical) relations in the rate form, for example, for formulation of the boundary value problem in the rate form with contact conditions when a contact area is a priori unknown and changes in a deformation process. The paper considers some questions of formulating geometrically nonlinear constitutive relations of elastic material in the rate form and the relationship of these equations and the constitutive relations in the finite form. In many existing elastic and elasto-plastic models Hooke's law (written in terms of the actual configuration) is used as the constitutive relation. As a rule, the rate measure of the strain is deformation rate tensor (the symmetrical part of velocity gradient) and the stress rate measure is some objective derivative (convective or corotational) of weighted Kirchhoff stress tensor. The use of the convective derivative leads to certain difficulties, for example, analysis of evolution stress state in a deformable basis is complicated; consequently, convective derivatives are excluded from consideration. Using a stress tensor corotational derivative instead of the material derivative (derivative by time) allows satisfying the principle of material indifference (the principle of independence of constitutive relation from the choice of reference frame), however a choice of the derivative type can be implemented by many ways. An arbitrary selection of stress corotational derivative leads to undesirable effects: stress oscillations for the simple shear monotonic loading (for example, for Jaumann derivative), “not closed” stress trajectories and nonzero stress work for a closed deformation trajectory. In papers of A. Meyers, H. Xiao, O. Bruhns corotational derivative (with logarithmic spin or logspin) was proposed.The derivative of the right Hencky's strain tensor is exactly equal to deformation rate tensor. When using this derivative in the constitutive relation the described effects are missing, on the basis of this remarked logspin authors state the logspin exclusivity and recommend it only for using in rate form constitutive relations. The article shows full compliance between Hooke's law in the rate and finite form under conditions: existence of the material basis in which properties of the body (in this case - elastic) remain unchanged and the use of the same type corotational derivative for stress and strain measures. Computational experiments for illustration of the proved assertion about the equivalence of different Hooke's law forms were conducted: various measures of strain state and their corotational derivatives are considered; a kinematic loading in a closed cycle (in the space of deformations) is applied. It is shown for isotropic elastic materials that stress trajectories are closed. When using work-conjugacy stress and strain measures the dissipation energy is absent. Thus it is possible to question the exclusive choice of logarithmic spin and the above-mentioned commonly used measures of stress-strain state. In formulating and solving the problems of solid mechanics there should be an opportunity to use different stress-strain measures and their objective derivatives, the choice of measures and constitutive relations should be justified from the point of physical analysis of the process.

Problems with the Jurisprudence of the Iran–US Claims Tribunal on Indirect Expropriation

Investment tribunals often follow the decisions of the Iran-US Claims Tribunal—a tribunal constituted in the aftermath of Iranian revolution overthrowing the Shah of Iran—for deciding indirect expropriation cases. Likewise there is strong support in academic writings in favour of this jurisprudence. Investment tribunals and scholars have ignored the peculiarities arising from the lex specialis nature and other procedural and substantive problems. The Tribunal developed the ‘sole effects doctrine’, which does not possess any support in customary or treaty law. The decisions on indirect expropriation were influenced by the residual clause ‘other measures affecting property rights’. There are other problems arising due to wide choice of law clause, problems of insufficient reasoning, etc which make these decisions unfit as precedent for investment arbitration.

The Principle of Indifference and Inductive Scepticism

AbstractMany theorists have proposed that we can use the principle of indifference to defeat the inductive sceptic. But any such theorist must confront the objection that different ways of applying...

The Principal Principle Implies the Principle of Indifference

We argue that David Lewis’s principal principle implies a version of the principle of indifference. The same is true for similar principles that need to appeal to the concept of admissibility. Such principles are thus in accord with objective Bayesianism, but in tension with subjective Bayesianism.

Solution concepts for games with ambiguous payoffs

I consider games with ambiguous payoffs played by non-Expected Utility decision makers. Three equilibrium solutions are studied. Nash equilibrium in which equilibrium mixed strategies must be best responses, Crawford equilibrium in beliefs and pure equilibrium in beliefs in which equilibrium strategies are mixtures of best responses, with the latter restricting best responses to pure actions. I study the interactions between ambiguity preferences on one side and equilibrium properties on the other. I show how the equilibrium concepts differ, computing necessary and sufficient conditions for existence and equivalence. I also show how these solution concepts fare against two fundamental principles of Nash equilibrium in standard games: the principle of indifference and the reduction principle. Given both are central to the computation of Nash equilibrium in games with Expected Utility players, their failure indicates how relaxing the Expected Utility hypothesis may disrupt standard game theoretic results such as the characterization of equilibria in two-player games.

Probabilism, entropies and strictly proper scoring rules

Accuracy arguments are the en vogue route in epistemic justifications of probabilism and further norms governing rational belief. These arguments often depend on the fact that the employed inaccuracy measure is strictly proper. I argue controversially that it is ill-advised to assume that the employed inaccuracy measures are strictly proper and that strictly proper statistical scoring rules are a more natural class of measures of inaccuracy. Building on work in belief elicitation I show how strictly proper statistical scoring rules can be used to give an epistemic justification of probabilism. An agent's evidence does not play any role in these justifications of probabilism. Principles demanding the maximisation of a generalised entropy depend on the agent's evidence. In the second part of the paper I show how to simultaneously justify probabilism and such a principle. I also investigate scoring rules which have traditionally been linked with entropies. • An accuracy argument justifying probabilism by tracking chances is provided. • An argument against the assumption that an inaccuracy measure is strictly proper is made. • Generalised entropy maximisation principles are justified in terms of worst case expected loss avoidance. • Generalised entropy maximisation principles are shown to entail the principle of indifference, in a number of cases. • The notion of locality applying to scoring rules defined on general belief functions is studied.

Dynamic choice in a complex world

We consider an environment in which a Decision Maker (DM) finds it sufficiently complex to even describe the state space, let alone guess the parameters of the underlying data generating process. He is therefore unable to use the standard Bayesian methods. Instead, at each moment in time, the DM constructs a preference relation on the set of available actions based on their past performance. We postulate a set of axioms on this family of preference relations indexed by histories (of rewards). Two key conditions, a typical Exchangeability axiom and another labeled Consistency, that constraints the DM not to update her preferences after certain events (loosely based the “the principle of insufficient reason”), characterize thumb rules for ranking actions that are akin to the familiar fictitious play in game theory. Moreover, if in fact the stochastic process that generates the rewards is exchangeable, a DM that obeys our axioms (almost surely) cannot be distinguished in the long run from one that is fully cognizant of the environment and satisfies the expected utility hypothesis. The main result requires proving a representation result on multisets which may be of independent interest.

Habla, mutismo, y régimen de expresión en La vorágine

In La vorágine (The Vortex, 1924), Colombian author José Eustasio Rivera stages a war of writings between the two poetic principles belonging to the regime of expression studied by Jacques Rancière: the principle of necessity and the principle of indifference. They both manifest themselves in the dichotomy of speech/muteness as a leitmotiv that structures Rivera's novel; its protagonist's madness can be interpreted as the incapacity to reconcile them. The jungle devouring the main character at the end, which stands for his encounter with the Real, ultimately represents art merging with life and it heralds the arrival of the Avant-garde.