Transferable Vote Research Articles

Paradoxical oddities in two multiwinner elections from Scotland

If you were a candidate in an election, would you prefer more support from voters or less? Put another way: would you prefer that your campaign staff persuade more voters to vote for you, or fewer? These questions seem silly, because of course you would want more support from voters. Surprisingly, when using certain voting methods it is actually possible for more voter support to produce a worse result for a candidate; such an outcome is a type of monotonicity paradox. In [1], we searched for various types of monotonicity paradoxes in 1079 single-transferable vote (STV) elections from a database of Scottish local government elections. The purpose of this article is to present in detail two of the most interesting elections revealed by our search. These two elections are arguably the most paradox-riddled real-world political ranked choice elections ever documented, perhaps rivalled only by four single-winner examples from the United States: the 2009 mayoral election in Burlington, Vermont ([2, 3]); a 2021 city council race in Minneapolis, Minnesota [4]; the 2022 Special Election for US House in Alaska [5]; and the 2022 District 4 School Director election in Oakland, California [6]. The first election we present is the 2017 council election in the Buckie Ward of the Moray Council Area, which demonstrated the most extreme instance of a committee size monotonicity paradox ever observed in an actual election. The second election is the 2012 council election in the Steòrnabhagh a Tuath Ward of the Nah-Eileanan Siar Council Area, which demonstrated upward and downward monotonicity paradoxes, as well as a no-show paradox. To contextualise these elections, as part of our discussion we indicate how often these kinds of paradoxes occur in Scottish local government elections.

Using stated preference methods to design gender-affirming long-acting PrEP programs for transgender and nonbinary adults.

Integrating gender-affirming care with biomedical HIV prevention could help address the disproportionate HIV risk experienced by transgender and nonbinary (trans) adults. This discrete choice experiment assesses and identifies the most important programming factors influencing the decisions of trans adults to use injectable long-acting HIV pre-exposure prophylaxes (LA-PrEP). From March to April 2023 n = 366 trans adults in Washington state chose between four different choice profiles that presented hypothetical programs (each comprised of 5 attributes with 4 levels). We analyzed ranked choice responses using a mixed rank-ordered logit model for main effects. Respondents preferred to receive LA-PrEP from a gender-affirming care provider and a co-prescription for both oral and injectable hormones. Trans adults strongly favored 12-month protection and injection in the upper arm. No strong preferences emerged surrounding the type of health facility offering the gender-affirming LA-PrEP program. Our findings show that integrating and leveraging gender-affirming health systems, inclusive of medical services such as hormone therapy, with HIV biomedical products like LA-PrEP is strongly preferred and influential to trans adults' decision to use LA-PrEP. Leveraging choice-based design experiments provides informative results for optimizing gender-affirming LA-PrEP programming tailored to trans adults.

Information Criteria for Signal Extraction Using Singular Spectrum Analysis: White and Red Noise

In singular spectrum analysis, which is applied to signal extraction, it is of critical importance to select the number of components correctly in order to accurately estimate the signal. In the case of a low-rank signal, there is a challenge in estimating the signal rank, which is equivalent to selecting the model order. Information criteria are commonly employed to address these issues. However, singular spectrum analysis is not aimed at the exact low-rank approximation of the signal. This makes it an adaptive, fast, and flexible approach. Conventional information criteria are not directly applicable in this context. The paper examines both subspace-based and information criteria, proposing modifications suited to the Hankel structure of trajectory matrices employed in singular spectrum analysis. These modifications are initially developed for white noise, and a version for red noise is also proposed. In the numerical comparisons, a number of scenarios are considered, including the case of signals that are approximated by low-rank signals. This is the most similar to the case of real-world time series. The criteria are compared with each other and with the optimal rank choice that minimizes the signal estimation error. The results of numerical experiments demonstrate that for low-rank signals and noise levels within a region of stable rank detection, the proposed modifications yield accurate estimates of the optimal rank for both white and red noise cases. The method that considers the Hankel structure of the trajectory matrices appears to be a superior approach in many instances. Reasonable model orders are obtained for real-world time series. It is recommended that a transformation be applied to stabilize the variance before estimating the rank.

Statistical models of ballot truncation in ranked choice elections

We introduce and study two new statistical models of ballot truncation – the process wherein voters neglect to rank every candidate during ranked choice voting (RCV). These models allow the incorporation of ballot truncation into simulations of ranked choice elections, resulting in more realistic predictions of likely outcomes. Our Independent Truncation model is based on a survival analysis approach, while our Plackett-Luce Truncation model extends the classical Plackett-Luce ranking model. Using ballot data from Cambridge MA elections, we motivate our new models and fit them to obtain parameter estimates. We then demonstrate our models in a simulation study to measure the effect of ballot truncation on minority representation in a hypothetical multi-winner election.

Building bridges for consensus via alternative voting methods

The study examines the impact of D21, an alternative voting method, on voter polarization using data from President 21 (P21), an online election game, conducted during the 2018 Presidential election in the Czech Republic. Contrary to the actual election outcome, characterized by extreme voter polarization, the P21 outcome under D21 produced cross-ideological consensus among the voters. D21 allows voters to express not only preferences by casting plus votes but also a disapproval by giving a minus vote. Unlike the actual election outcome, P21 data demonstrates voters’ tendencies to cast additional votes for candidates from opposite political spectra, while not using minus votes in retaliatory fashion. These tendencies appeared to be linked to voters’ issue positions and perceptions of the moral leadership qualities of the running candidates rather than their ideological and political affiliations.

How Would Preferential Voting Have Changed Taiwan’s 2024 Presidential Election?

Would the results of Taiwan’s 2024 presidential election have differed under preferential voting rules? Observers assume that the split in the opposition virtually guaranteed Lai Ching-te’s victory, but no analysis has aimed to measure ranked preferences across the three presidential candidates. This analysis combines original pre-election survey data that includes preference ordering of candidates with simulation analysis of the actual election results under the alternative vote and Borda count systems. The original survey finds Ko Wen-je would have won under both preferential systems, while simulating preference ordering using the 2024 election results suggests Lai would have won under alternative vote but lost to Hou You-ih under Borda count.

Election Laws and Electoral Reforms in India and U.K.

This paper examines the election laws and electoral reforms in India and the United Kingdom, highlighting their evolution, current frameworks, and ongoing challenges. India, the world's largest democracy, operates under a legal structure largely defined by the Representation of the People Act, 1951, and is overseen by the Election Commission of India. The Indian electoral system, based on the First-Past-The-Post (FPTP) model, has undergone significant reforms to address issues of transparency, voter fraud, and campaign finance, including the introduction of electronic voting machines (EVMs) and Voter Verifiable Paper Audit Trails (VVPATs). In contrast, the United Kingdom's electoral system, rooted in centuries-old traditions, is regulated by laws such as the Representation of the People Acts and the Political Parties, Elections and Referendums Act, 2000. While the UK also employs the FPTP system, it faces criticism for not reflecting the proportionality of votes. Recent reforms in the UK have focused on improving voter registration, addressing electoral fraud, and debating alternative voting methods like the Single Transferable Vote (STV) to enhance democratic representation. The study identifies both similarities and divergences in the electoral processes of these two democracies, emphasizing the impact of their respective legal frameworks on electoral integrity and democratic participation. It also explores ongoing debates and proposed reforms aimed at enhancing the inclusiveness, fairness, and transparency of elections in both nations.

Is E-Voting an Alternative to the Ballot Box? A Field Study in Gaziantep

Recent health risks and the high number of voters make it necessary to produce alternatives to the traditional ballot used in elections. For this purpose, new methods that facilitate the voting process and the advantages provided by technology are evaluated in terms of increasing democratic turnout. The aim of this study is to understand which of the two methods, e-voting and voting at the ballot box, voters would prefer as the dependent variable. Since the dependent variable in the study has two categories, Binary Logistic Regression analysis was applied. Data were collected from 475 respondents living in Gaziantep through a questionnaire on voting method preference. Among the dependent variables, age and gender were not statistically significant in determining the preferences for voting methods of the participants. A relationship was found between education level and voting preferences. It was also observed that the higher the level of education of the voter, the higher the rate of preference for e-voting. The questions measuring the level of political interest were developed in the light of the findings of previous studies. Individuals with high political interest are more likely to vote at the ballot box than via e-voting. Ideological differences also affect the preferences for voting methods of individuals. Considering the data obtained from the study; it can be assumed that e-voting as an alternative voting method will be preferred by voters in Türkiye in the future.

A majority rule philosophy for instant runoff voting

A majority rule philosophy for instant runoff voting

Does ranked choice Voting Increase voter turnout and mobilization?

Many jurisdictions in the United States have recently adopted single-winner ranked choice voting (RCV) to replace first-past-the-post plurality elections. This study contributes to the literature examining the potential consequences of changing to RCV by modeling the relationship between electoral systems and voter turnout. We propose that RCV may increase turnout by incentivizing increased contacts with voters. Previous attempts at assessing the relationship between RCV and turnout in the US have been limited by a lack of individual-level turnout data measured across all cases where RCV is and is not used. The study utilizes large, unique data from administrative voter turnout records that overcomes this limitation. We find significant and substantially higher probabilities of turnout in places that use RCV, and find evidence that campaigns in RCV places have greater incidences of direct voter contacting than in similar places that do not use RCV.

An ecological inference approach to the origins of proportional representation

Facing a prospective majority of socialists during the early third of the 20th century, some secular conservative and liberal parties pooled their votes to raise the majority threshold for the left, while others raised it by enacting some form of proportional representation. We use vote transfers, estimated by a new method of ecological inference, to explain those far-reaching choices. We provide a new conceptualization and measurement of the segmentation of the electoral market to test a proposition within the Boix-Rokkan framework: proportional representation reform was chosen when vote transfers foretold coalition failure. To substantiate our claim, we investigate two most similar cases, Denmark during 1910–1918 and New Zealand during 1928–1931, that diverged in the explanatory variable and in the response.

Votes Can Be Confidently Bought in Some Ranked Ballot Elections, and What to Do about It

Abstract We show that, in some ranked ballot elections, it may be possible to violate the secret vote. There are so many ways to rank even a handful of candidates that many possible rankings might not be cast by any voter. So, a vote buyer could pay someone to rank the candidates a certain way and then use the announced election results to verify that the voter followed through. We examine the feasibility of this attack both theoretically and empirically, focusing on instant runoff voting (IRV). Although many IRV elections have few enough candidates that this scheme is not feasible, we use data from San Francisco and a proposed election rule change in Oakland to show that some important IRV elections can have large numbers of unused rankings. There is no evidence that this vote-buying scheme has ever been used. However, its existence has implications for the administration and security of IRV elections. This scheme is more feasible when more candidates can be ranked in the election and when the election results report all the ways that candidates were ranked.

Understanding vote transfers in two-round elections without resorting to declared data. The contribution of ecological inference, consolidated with factual information from a case study of the 2014 municipal elections in Montpellier

In electoral sociology, the analysis of vote transfers has traditionally depended on individual data obtained from surveys. Because such data suffer from a significant amount of declaration and memory bias, replacing them with the electoral statistics available down to polling station level may be advantageous. Recent developments in models of ecological inference allow us to use these aggregated data to establish estimates of vote transfers while minimising the risk of ecological error. Nonetheless, the reliability of ecological inference models for estimating vote transfers has thus far received little attention in the form of empirical evaluations. The purpose of the present article is to cast light on this blind spot by analysing a model for predicting electoral volatility in a two-round election, namely the municipal election held in Montpellier in 2014. What makes this approach original is its use of observed information – the proportion of non-voters in both rounds – first to compare this data with the estimates produced by the model and then to integrate it as a modelling parameter to measure its impact on estimated vote allocation. This analysis reveals that the initial model's results are relatively reliable regarding the known parameter, although they slightly overestimate its amplitude and underestimate its variability. The model that integrates information regarding the proportion of consistent non-voters yields estimates close to those obtained using the “raw” model. In terms of interpretative capacity, the value added by integrating this additional information is, therefore, slight. However, integrating the information does make it possible to establish narrower density intervals, reducing the uncertainty associated with the interpretation of the other parameters, particularly proportions associated with candidates who received few votes in the first round.

The Moderating Effect of Instant Runoff Voting

Instant runoff voting (IRV) has recently gained popularity as an alternative to plurality voting for political elections, with advocates claiming a range of advantages, including that it produces more moderate winners than plurality and could thus help address polarization. However, there is little theoretical backing for this claim, with existing evidence focused on case studies and simulations. In this work, we prove that IRV has a moderating effect relative to plurality voting in a precise sense, developed in a 1-dimensional Euclidean model of voter preferences. We develop a theory of exclusion zones, derived from properties of the voter distribution, which serve to show how moderate and extreme candidates interact during IRV vote tabulation. The theory allows us to prove that if voters are symmetrically distributed and not too concentrated at the extremes, IRV cannot elect an extreme candidate over a moderate. In contrast, we show plurality can and validate our results computationally. Our methods provide new frameworks for the analysis of voting systems, deriving exact winner distributions geometrically and establishing a connection between plurality voting and stick-breaking processes.

Symmetry estimating R × C vote transfer matrices from aggregate data

Abstract Ecological inference methods are devised to estimate unknown inner-cells of 2-way contingency tables by inferring conditional distribution probabilities. This outlines one of the more long-standing social science problems, chiefly frequent in political science and sociology. To solve the problem, ecological inference algorithms consider an asymmetric relationship, with a main characteristic (e.g. race or social class) mapped to rows impacting on a dependent variable, usually the vote, mapped to columns. The problem arises because different solutions are reached depending on how variables are assigned to rows and columns. The models are asymmetric. In this paper, we propose 2 new sets of ecological inference algorithms and explore if accuracy could be improved by handling the problem in a symmetric way. We assess the accuracy of the proposed methods using real data from more than 550 concurrent elections where the true district-level cross-classifications of votes (straight- and split-tickets) are known. Our empirical assessment clearly identifies the symmetric solutions as more accurate. They outperform asymmetric methods 90% of the time and reduce error, on average, by 11%. Our results are based on data from simultaneous elections, so further research is required to see whether our conclusions can be maintained in other ecological inference contexts. Interested readers can easily use the proposed methods as they are implemented in the R package lphom.

Electronic voting as an element of electronic democracy: the experience of EU countries

The rapid development of information technologies and digital transformation affects various spheres of social relations. Democratic processes in the country, particularly voting, are no exception in this direction. Note that voting and elections are the main components of modern societies, as elections impact citizens' lives and well-being. There is a widespread tendency to reduce participation due to the inconvenience of face-to-face voting. One of the methods of increasing the number of voters is the introduction of electronic voting. The author notes that electronic voting covers several types of electronic means in elections for direct voting and counting votes.
 The work also considers the peculiarities of the Internet or online voting. The positive aspects of electronic voting are analyzed, in particular, such as the automation and simplification of the election process, the increase in participation, and the depreciation of the time required to announce the results. At the same time, the author points out the risks that arise when using electronic voting: falsification of elections, violation of the secrecy of the election, technical failure, etc.
 The paper analyzes the peculiarities of the use of electronic voting machines in Germany and other EU countries. In particular, it indicated that Estonia has a positive experience implementing Internet voting. It had determined that such a vote is unique because it becomes available online only before Election Day during the early voting period, which usually lasts one week.
 It emphasized that Estonia remains the only country in the world that has been using a digital voting alternative since 2005, involving young people inside the country and Estonians living abroad in the electoral and political process. The author notes that such success is due to several factors: people's trust in the authorities, a developed data security system, and the availability of a technological foundation built long before the first attempt at e-voting.
 It had determined that other countries are trying to adopt Estonia's experience, offering an alternative voting method. The author notes that this is limited to installing special voting machines. The work summarizes that electronic voting involves implementing the latest information technologies for the election process. However, the introduction of electronic voting technology itself needs to be clarified.

On Rank Selection in Non-Negative Matrix Factorization Using Concordance

The choice of the factorization rank of a matrix is critical, e.g., in dimensionality reduction, filtering, clustering, deconvolution, etc., because selecting a rank that is too high amounts to adjusting the noise, while selecting a rank that is too low results in the oversimplification of the signal. Numerous methods for selecting the factorization rank of a non-negative matrix have been proposed. One of them is the cophenetic correlation coefficient (ccc), widely used in data science to evaluate the number of clusters in a hierarchical clustering. In previous work, it was shown that ccc performs better than other methods for rank selection in non-negative matrix factorization (NMF) when the underlying structure of the matrix consists of orthogonal clusters. In this article, we show that using the ratio of ccc to the approximation error significantly improves the accuracy of the rank selection. We also propose a new criterion, concordance, which, like ccc, benefits from the stochastic nature of NMF; its accuracy is also improved by using its ratio-to-error form. Using real and simulated data, we show that concordance, with a CUSUM-based automatic detection algorithm for its original or ratio-to-error forms, significantly outperforms ccc. It is important to note that the new criterion works for a broader class of matrices, where the underlying clusters are not assumed to be orthogonal.

On the measurement of electoral volatility

Electoral volatility measures the degree of vote switching between political parties in two consecutive elections. Political scientists use this as an indicator of party system (in)stability. Pedersen (1979) states that volatility should increase when the number of parties changes and/or relevant parties experience vote transfer between elections. However, his proposed functional form of measuring volatility does not always respond to these changes. To address these limitations, we introduce a class of additively separable electoral volatility measures which are responsive to changes in both the number of parties and their vote shares. We present a set of axioms that are both necessary and sufficient to characterize the proposed class of indices, making the structure of the indices more transparent. The paper also introduces two quasi orders which can rank party systems in terms of all electoral volatility indices satisfying certain intuitively reasonable axioms. Finally, applications of the proposed class of indices and the quasi orders are provided using data from Indian state elections.

The expressive power of voting rules

Different voting rules are commonly used to settle collective decisions. A promising way to assess voting rules, for which little is known, is to compare the expressive utility that voters derive from voting with each rule. In this paper, we first propose a simple ordinal model of expressive voting that allows us to compare voting rules in terms of the expressive utility that voters can derive from voting (their expressive power). Our model provides a novel testable implication according to which expected turnout increases with expressive power. We then ran an online experiment testing this implication in a controlled environment. We find that if voters are made aware of alternative voting rules, turnout is higher in voting rules with higher expressive power. Our results also show that higher expressive power is associated with a better representation of voters’ actual preferences and, according to our model, higher expressive utility. This suggests that the expressive power of voting rules is a relevant criterion when choosing between voting rules for economic and political decisions.

Income over feed cost of the Indonesian-Bali pure breed cattle fed the formulation supplement of agricultural by-product in the urea red palm sugar block

Introduction and aim: The specific nutrients needed for tissue synthesis in ruminant animal’s growth required balanced nutrients arising from ruminant animal fermentative and intestinal digestion. Thus, this study aimed to evaluate feed supplement utilization of agricultural waste ingredients providing specific valuable nutrients in balancing the absorbed products of digestion to meet animal's requirements increasing animal economical production. Methods: Data of dried matter consumption, average daily gain feed conversion, feed cost and animal live weight price of yearling calves in Bali pure breed cattle were used to assess the economical animal production focusing on income over feed cost of different the levels of agricultural waste ingredients formulated in the urea red palm sugar block (URPS-Block). This formulated URPS-Block was fed to the Indonesian-Bali pure breed cattle with basal diets of king grass (Pennisetum purpureum). The unused waste of expired red palm sugar was used to change molasses function due to its unavailability and high prices in some areas. The yearling calves generated by Bali pure breed bull mated naturally with Bali pure breed cows were used in this study. Data were analyzed by a covariance model in the Double Latin Square design. Results: The economical productivity focusing on the income over feed cost (IOFC) of both male and female yearling calves by treatment comparisons of different levels of URPS-Block feed supplement showed that the treatment of URPS-Block supplement with 300 g/animal/day (R2) produced the highest income over feed cost (IOFC) of IDR 18,975.- and 21,100.- in female and male yearling calves, respectively. This IOFC of male yearling calves indicated the comparative outstanding of 6.95 percent more efficient for economical production over female yearling calves in Bali-pure breed cattle Conclusion: This study gives preliminary information on the treatment of the URPS-Block feed supplement of 300 g/animal/day (R2) producing the highest income over feed cost (IOFC). The results may help animal producers in planning strategies for beef farm to keep animals with the economical productivity using URPS-Block supplement from agricultural by-product for beef cattle farm sustainability. Implications: The treatment of the URPS-Block feed supplement of 300 g/animal/day (R2) could be used as the first rank choice of the highest feed supplement, followed by the treatment of the URPS-Block feed supplement of 150 g/animal/day (R1) and 450 g/animal/day (R3) to be the alternative choices for the economical animal production compared with treatment without URPS-Block (R0) in male and female calves of Bali-pure breed cattle.