Installed Photovoltaic Capacity Research Articles

Analysis of solar photovoltaic module parks in Ukraine: Forecasting their further operation and end-of-life management

This article examines solar energy’s rapid growth and evolving role in Ukraine, focusing on the challenges and opportunities presented by the end-of-life management of photovoltaic (PV) modules. Despite only actively developing over the past decade, solar energy accounts for over 5% of Ukraine’s total electricity generation, ranking it 8th in Europe for installed PV capacity. The war in Ukraine has further underscored the importance of solar energy for the country’s energy security and resilience. However, with the majority of PV capacity installed only recently and with a finite lifespan, Ukraine will soon face significant volumes of decommissioned PV modules requiring processing, utilization, or reuse. The article highlights the urgency of developing a robust PV module recycling sector, as current practices involve landfilling most components. A comprehensive analysis of Ukraine’s PV module park, conducted as part of the EU-funded Retrieve project, represents a crucial first step towards effective PV waste management, aligning with Ukraine’s energy strategy and commitments under the Paris Agreement on climate change.

Projected waste and recycling potential of China’s photovoltaic industry

The massive expansion of the photovoltaic (PV) industry, driven by the decarbonization of the energy mix, has led to an exponential increase in PV waste. In order to ensure the stable development of the PV industry, it is crucial to make accurate macro forecasts of future PV waste in China. In this study, a multifactor installed capacity forecasting model based on long- and short-term bi-directional memory GRA is proposed to predict the cumulative installed PV capacity in China from 2024 to 2050. The Weibull distribution and dynamic scenario analysis are utilized to quantify the recycling of panel materials for different technologies and to assess the potential economic value of recycling. The results show that China’s cumulative installed PV capacity will reach 2,901 GW by 2050. 99.75 million tons, 40.96 million tons, and 5.29 million tons of C-si, CdTe, and CIGS panels could be cumulatively recycled in the baseline scenario of Regular loss. Distributed PV will generate more end-of-life equipment than centralized PV, up to an estimated 11.8–0.5 % more. In all scenarios, the capacity of recycled equipment averages up to 64.7 % of new capacity, with a significant complementary effect of recycling. Recycling is projected to generate $13.99 billion, with significant economic benefits. Helps decision makers to take measures based on recycled materials from different technologies.

Rapid assessment of solar PV micro-system energy generation in Poland based on freely pvlib-python library

Abstract Poland has experienced a remarkable growth in renewable energy adoption, notably in photovoltaic (PV) solar systems. The majority of installations are prosumer PV micro-installations, exceeding predicted capacity targets outlined in the Energy Policy of Poland until 2040. Despite the significant growth in installed PV capacity, there is still a lack of comprehensive research focusing on fast assessment of energy generation capacity for solar PV micro-systems. This study aims to address this gap by providing a comprehensive analysis of energy production potential across different configurations and locations in Poland. Using geocoding techniques, solar irradiation data from PVGIS database and pvlib-python library, a methodology was developed to rapidly estimate energy generation from 1 kWp solar PV systems . Results reveal spatial disparities in energy yield from solar PV micro installations in Poland, influenced by factors such as geographical location and panel orientation and inclination. Recognizing that the presented energy indicators provide valuable initial parameters for determining solar PV system power output, this data can serve as a critical reference point for stakeholders, assisting them in estimating potential energy generation capacities in different regions of Poland.

Readiness of Malaysian PV System to Utilize Energy Storage System with Second-Life Electric Vehicle Batteries

The potential of renewable energy sources to lower greenhouse gas emissions and lessen our reliance on fossil fuels has accelerated their integration globally, and especially that of solar photovoltaic (PV) systems. Malaysia has shown great progress in the adoption of photovoltaic systems thanks to its plentiful solar resources. On the other hand, energy storage systems (ESSs) are becoming more and more necessary in order to guarantee grid stability and fully realize the benefits of PV systems. This study attempts to assess the current condition of PV installations in Malaysia with an emphasis on their economic feasibility, regulatory compliance, technological capabilities, and compatibility with various energy storage technologies. Malaysian photovoltaic (PV) systems’ readiness to integrate energy storage systems (ESSs) using second-life electric vehicle batteries (SLEVBs) is examined in this article. Integrating PV systems with SLEVBs in residential ESSs shows economic viability, with a 15-year payback and 25% return on investment (ROI). Therefore, for every 1 MW of installed PV capacity, with ESS integration it is estimated to reduce approximately 3504 metric tons of CO2 emissions annually in Malaysia. The homeowner benefits from large electricity bill savings, net metering revenue, and various incentives or financing alternatives that make the project financially attractive despite the extended payback time. Energy storage solutions are needed to improve grid stability, energy usage, and solar power generation in Malaysia as renewable energy adoption increases. Reusing retired EV batteries for stationary storage could solve environmental and economic issues. This study examines the feasibility, regulatory frameworks, and economic viability of combining second-life EV batteries with PV installations in Malaysia.

Analyzing the consequences of power factor degradation in grid-connected solar photovoltaic systems

This study examines the impact of integrating solar photovoltaic (PV) systems on power factor (PF) within low-voltage radial distribution networks, using empirical data from the Energy Self-Sufficiency for Health Facilities in Ghana (EnerSHelF) project sites in Ghana. The research included simulations focusing on optimal PV integration, with and without PF considerations, and the strategic placement of PV and shunt capacitors (SC). Three scenarios evaluated PV injection at high-load demand nodes, achieving penetration levels of 85.00 percent, 82.88 percent with high voltage drop, and 100.00 percent with high loss nodes. Additionally, three scenarios assessed SC allocation methods: proportional to the node's reactive power demand (Scenario I), even distribution (Scenario II), and proportional to installed PV capacity at PV nodes (Scenario III).The analysis used a twin-objective index (TOI), combining voltage deviations and power factor degradation. Results showed significant PV curtailment was necessary to achieve standard PF. Optimal penetration levels, considering TOI, reduced PV penetration from 85.00 percent to 63.75 percent, 82.88 percent to 57.38 percent, and 100.00 percent to 72.50 percent for high load, high voltage drops, and high loss nodes, respectively. Notably, all scenarios showed a concerning PF of 0.00 at dead-end nodes (P20, P21, P22).Scenario I achieved PF ranges of -0.26 to 1.00 with PV at high load, -0.69 to 1.00 with PV at high voltage drop, and 0.95 to 1.00 with PV at high loss nodes. Scenario II produced similar ranges, -0.48 to 1.00, -1.00 to 0.99, and 0.30 to 0.96, with PV placement at high load, voltage drops, and loss nodes, respectively. Scenario III yielded ranges of -0.19 to 0.97 (high load), -0.23 to 1.00 (high voltage drop), and 0.86 to 0.96 (high losses).The study concluded that the most effective strategy involves installing PVs at high-loss nodes and distributing SCs proportionally to the node's reactive power demand (Scenario I). This approach achieved a more uniform PF pattern throughout the network, highlighting the practical implications of strategic PV placement and targeted reactive power compensation for maintaining a healthy and efficient distribution system with solar PV integration.

Design and techno-economic analysis of solar energy based on-site hydrogen refueling station

This paper presents a detailed techno-economic review and assessment of a hydrogen refueling station (HRS) powered by a grid-connected photovoltaic (PV) system to address the issues of carbon emissions and energy sustainability in transportation. In the study, the HRS system with 1, 3 and 5 MW PV installed capacity for Ankara, the capital city of Türkiye, is considered for different system lifetimes. In the proposed HRS, on-site hydrogen production is achieved through anion exchange membrane water electrolysis (AEMWE) using a grid-connected PV system, and the produced hydrogen is stored in a cascaded storage system and is utilized at the HRS station. In order to evaluate the cost competitiveness and economic viability of the designed HRS system, the levelized cost of hydrogen (LCOH) is determined by considering the initial investment costs, operating expenses and potential revenue streams. The results show that the HRS capacity, PV installed capacity and system lifetime significantly impact the LCOH. The technoeconomic analysis results show that the best system configuration was determined as 8.54 €/kg H2 in the 20-year long term refueling scenario for a 5 MW installed PV capacity with a daily refueling capacity of 170 kg H2. This study contributes to the development of sustainable energy infrastructure by providing a comprehensive framework for the design, calculation and economic evaluation of PV-integrated hydrogen refueling stations. The results provide valuable information for policymakers, industry stakeholders, and researchers to help achieve a carbon-neutral transportation sector and promote energy sustainability.

Agrivoltaic Systems: Potential Opportunities for South Africa

South Africa has seen a drastic uptake of solar photovoltaic (PV) systems with an increasing number of solar farms over the last decade. From an available land perspective, there is also much potential to significantly expand the generation capacity, when compared to the rest of the world. More than 80% of the land area has a solar resource greater than 1600 kWh/m2/yr. Over 79% of the land is used for agricultural purposes, yet only 22.5% of the installed PV capacity is in the agricultural sector. This highlights the potential of dual land usage with agrivoltaic systems. This paper investigates the opportunities to develop such systems by considering agricultural production in South Africa that may be suitable – to pave the way forward for the implementation of appropriate agrivoltaic systems in the country. A Geographic Information System (GIS) analysis was undertaken, considering the solar resource and land with a slope of less than 2 degree – to minimise construction costs. Current large-scale solar projects in South Africa indicate that at least 0.6 GWh of electricity can be generated annually per hectare. The current total capacity (of all sources) generated around 237 TWh of electricity in 2022. To generate an equal amount of electricity with agrivoltaic systems would then (roughly) require less than 400 thousand hectares of agricultural land; or less than 2% of the available land suitable for agrivoltaic systems (depending on the designed panel density). Further site-specific techno-economic analyses are underway to provide greater insight into the potential opportunities for South Africa.

A comparative study of LSTM-ED architectures in forecasting day-ahead solar photovoltaic energy using Weather Data

Solar photovoltaic (PV) energy, with its clean, local, and renewable features, is an effective complement to traditional energy sources today. However, the photovoltaic power system is highly weather-dependent and therefore has unstable and intermittent characteristics. Despite the negative impact of these features on solar sources, the increase in worldwide installed PV capacity has made solar energy prediction an important research topic. This study compares three encoder-decoder (ED) networks for day-ahead solar PV energy prediction: Long Short-Term Memory ED (LSTM-ED), Convolutional LSTM ED (Conv-LSTM-ED), and Convolutional Neural Network and LSTM ED (CNN-LSTM-ED). The models are tested using 1741-day-long datasets from 26 PV panels in Istanbul, Turkey, considering both power and energy output of the panels and meteorological features. The results show that the Conv-LSTM-ED with 50 iterations is the most successful model, achieving an average prediction score of up to 0.88 over R-square (R2). Evaluation of the iteration counts’ effect reveals that the Conv-LSTM-ED with 50 iterations also yields the lowest Root Mean Squared Error (RMSE) and Mean Absolute Error (MAE) values, confirming its success. In addition, the fitness and effectiveness of the models are evaluated, with the Conv-LSTM-ED achieving the lowest Akaike Information Criterion (AIC) and Bayesian Information Criterion (BIC) values for each iteration. The findings of this work can help researchers build the best data-driven methods for forecasting PV solar energy based on PV features and meteorological features.

The spatiotemporal distribution prediction method for distributed photovoltaic installed capacity based on power supply measurement data

Abstract With the anticipated expansion of distributed power grid integration in the foreseeable future, the consideration of distributed power’s impact on power balance becomes paramount in distribution network planning. In this research, we presented a novel approach for predicting the spatial and temporal distribution of distribution network planning areas, with a specific focus on estimating the installed capacity of distributed photovoltaic (PV) systems. Our method leveraged the saturated capacity of distributed PV, requiring minimal data inputs. By establishing a quantitative model that elucidated the relationship between installed distributed PV capacity and land area, we generated PV installed capacity evolution curves for various types of land. Subsequently, we derived the development coefficient of distributed PV installed capacity. By combining this coefficient with the current status of installed distributed PV capacity in the target area’s land parcels, we forecasted the spatial and temporal distribution of future distributed PV capacity within the region. The proposed prediction model held significant implications for the planning of new distribution networks. Additionally, this study predicted the installed distributed PV capacity for distinct land use types, including residential, commercial, and industrial land, using a regional power supply unit as a representative example. We employed the installed PV capacity unit to forecast the electricity loss rate and energy saving rate within the planning area. By validating the model and method through exemplary test results, we demonstrated the model’s feasibility and accuracy. Furthermore, our model effectively predicted the impact of distributed PV integration on overall load forecasting, thereby offering the power grid more precise load forecasting capabilities.

Comparison And Analysis of The Photovoltaic Industry Between China and the US

Nowadays, the world is increasingly recognizing the limitations of non-renewable energy resources such as oil and fossil fuels. The continued reliance on these finite resources poses a significant risk of energy shortage in the future. As a result, there is a growing emphasis on promoting renewable energy sources like wind energy, solar energy, and other non-polluting alternatives. In this article, the focus is on the development of the photovoltaic (PV) industry in China and the United States, with a specific emphasis on photovoltaic energy. The aim of this study is to analyze and compare the current state of the PV industry in both countries, taking into account various factors such as PV power generation, installed PV capacity, and policy support. By conducting a comprehensive assessment of these aspects, the research findings reveal that the PV industry in China has experienced remarkable growth and has surpassed the United States in terms of competitiveness. China has emerged as a global leader in the PV industry, with significant advancements in technology and manufacturing capabilities. The country's PV power generation has witnessed substantial expansion, contributing significantly to its renewable energy targets. Moreover, China's installed PV capacity has experienced rapid growth, supported by favorable government policies and incentives that have stimulated investment and innovation in the sector. In contrast, the United States, while still a prominent player in the PV industry, has faced certain challenges in keeping pace with China's progress.

Exploring the merits of geographical diversification of solar PV power plants for a resilient PV-dominated electricity grid in India

Abstract India is highly dependent on solar photovoltaics (PV) to harness its vast solar resource potential and combat climate change. However, $\sim$90% of the installed PV capacity in India is concentrated in the top nine states, with the remaining states lagging behind. The research reveals that during monsoons, heavy cloud cover and rain lead to high solar resource variability, intermittency and the risk of very low PV generation, which can result in reliability issues in future PV-dominated electricity grids. Although energy storage can help in overcoming high intermittency, there are multiple challenges associated with it. The novelty of this study lies in demonstrating the benefits of combining multiple PV sites in various regions to mitigate the risks of low PV generation and high variability. The variability of individual sites was found to be up to $\sim$3.5 times higher than the variability of combined generation. During noon, prominent solar park sites like Bhadla and NP Kunta experience a decrease in power generation to values as low as $\sim$10% of the rated PV capacity. However, the minimum generation of the large-scale dispersed PV generation is $>$30%. Furthermore, the research identifies other benefits of dispersing PV generation across the country, viz., reduction of seasonal variability by adding PV capacity in the southern region, widening of the PV generation span, more room for PV capacity addition, reduction in storage and ramping needs, utilization of hydroelectric potential of the north-east and PV potential of Ladakh, and creating opportunities for sustainable development in rural agrarian regions through agrivoltaics.

Congestion control strategies for increased renewable penetration of photovoltaic in LV distribution networks

Domestic photovoltaic (PV) installations are increasing their spread due to decreased cost, environmental friendliness, and relatively easy installation. However, the massive domestic PV deployment can bring the LV network (LV) distribution network to its sustained operating limits, as overvoltage and congestion can arise. The overvoltage problems can emerge due to reverse power flows and congestion can be caused if the installed PV capacity is higher than the distribution line loading capacity. The limitations of the LV networks arise especially during the seasons when domestic power demand is minimal, and PVs are generating at their peak. The research presented here incorporates a real suburban LV network with fifteen residential users. The measured load and PV generation data for one year are used to carry out power flow simulations. Several congestion leveraging strategies such as battery energy storage system (BESS) incorporation, reactive power control (RPC), and curtailment of peaks are discussed.

An Overview on Recycling of Photovoltaic Modules at the End of Life

Abstract: “Solar energy is clean, renewable, sustainable, and cost-effective, but it also requires time to develop by individual”. Due to the current situation of fossil fuels eradication and over-exploitation across the world. The energy demands of the world are to be fulfilled by renewable energy sources. Among this Solar energy has the maximum potential to be exploited to the maximum level to full fill the energy demands of the world. Renewable energies contribute to the environmental, social, and economic development of countries [1]. There are various of clean and renewable energy sources such as Solar, biomass, wind, hydrogen, fuel cell, nanocomposite, and supercapacitor. Each of the energy sources are suitable for specific geographical locations and can suits from region to region [6]. Since ages Sun has been praised as a vitalizer of life. The total Solar energy absorbed by Earth's atmosphere, oceans and land masses is approximately 122 PW·year = 3,850,000 exajoules (EJ) per year. Most of the world's population live in areas with insolation levels of 150–300 watts/m2, or 3.5–7.0 kWh/m2 per day [2 google- Solar Wikipedia]. Solar energy is the most secure and ubiquitous source of energy to meet the power needs after coal exploitation. In present time installation of photovoltaic (PV) Solar modules are growing extremely fast. As result of the increase, the volume of modules that reach the end of their life will grow at the same rate in the near future. Global installed PV capacity reached around 773 GW at the end of 2020 [3] and is expected to rise further to 2840 GW by 2030 and 4500 GW by 2050 [4, 5-Abstract ].

Abundant Material Consumption Based on a Learning Curve for Photovoltaic toward Net‐Zero Emissions by 2050

The global cumulative photovoltaic (PV) installed capacity is now over 1 TW. While this is an impressive amount of PV growth, it contributes less than 3% of total electricity generation and, therefore, requires significantly more PV to decarbonize the electricity sector completely. In order to achieve this decarbonization sustainably, all factors must be considered, including the extraction and purification of abundant materials. Based on conservative and ambitious future PV production scenarios and learning rate (LR) for material consumption reduction, the material demands for the future are projected. The concept of LR is applied to estimate the reduced material consumption based on the “maturity” of PV technology or the cumulative installed PV capacity. Herein, it is suggested that abundant materials like copper, concrete, and aluminum may face shortages if PV production follows the broad electrification scenario. Steel, in comparison, likely does not encounter any material shortages. Nevertheless, the work here demonstrates that the demand for even abundant materials should be minimized to decarbonize energy usage and mitigate climate change sustainably.

An Overview on Recycling of Photovoltaic Modules at the End of Life (EoL)

Due to the current situation of fossil fuels eradication and over-exploitation across the world. The energy demands of the world are to be fulfilled by renewable energy sources. Among these Solar energy has the maximum potential to be exploited to the maximum level to full fill the energy demands of the world. Renewable energies contribute to the environmental, social, and economic development of countries [1]. There are various of clean and renewable energy sources such as Solar, biomass, wind, hydrogen, fuel cell, nanocomposite, and supercapacitor. Each of the energy sources are suitable for specific geographical locations and can suits from region to region [6]. Since ages Sun has been praised as a vitalizer of life. The total Solar energy absorbed by Earth's atmosphere, oceans and land masses is approximately 122 PW·year = 3,850,000 exajoules (EJ) per year. Most of the world's population live in areas with insolation levels of 150– 300 watts/m2, or 3.5–7.0 kWh/m2 per day [2 google- Solar Wikipedia]. Solar energy is the most secure and ubiquitous source of energy to meet the power needs after coal exploitation. In present time installation of photovoltaic (PV) Solar modules are growing extremely fast. As result of the increase, the volume of modules that reach the end of their life will grow at the same rate in the near future. Global installed PV capacity reached around 773 GW at the end of 2020 [3] and is expected to rise further to 2840 GW by 2030 and 4500 GW by 2050 [4, 5-Abstract ]. Considering an average module lifetime of 25 years, the worldwide Solar PV waste is anticipated to reach between 4%-14% of total generation capacity by 2030 and rise to over 80% (around 78 million tonnes) by 2050 [5-Abstract]. Therefore, the disposal of PV modules will become a pertinent environmental issue in the next decades. Eventually, there is plenty of room for progress in this area. This review present core reality of Photovoltaic Life Cycle, Photovoltaic Technology, Photovoltaic Recycling Process as well as global Waste Management Regulation in different countries and the Environmental & Economic Aspects of recycling. At present, PV recycling management in many countries envisages to extend the duties of the manufacturers of PV materials to encompass their eventual disposal or reuse. However, further improvements in the economic viability, practicality, high recovery rate and environmental performance of the PV industry with respect to recycling its products are indispensable. There is potential to develop new pathway for PV waste management industry development and offer employment and prospects for both public and private sector investors. Keywords: Recycling, End of life (EoL), Photovoltaic, Waste, Regulatory, c-Si, Thin film, Life cycle

Investigation of stochastic unit commitment to enable advanced flexibility measures for high shares of solar PV

As the share of solar photovoltaics (PV) in the power system increases, there is a growing need for flexibility from multiple, possibly interdependent sources to adjust to PV’s variability, uncertainty, and diurnal dependence. This paper investigates how stochastic unit commitment leveraging probabilistic solar forecasts can support other flexibility measures under high solar shares. We consider two flexibility measures relevant to day-ahead scheduling: battery energy time-shifting and solar ancillary service provision. Unit commitment and economic dispatch simulations are conducted on a realistic test system based on Texas using day-ahead solar trajectories. The benefits of the two flexibility measures are pronounced when the instantaneous solar share is high, offering cost savings of 10%–20% in the spring. For a Texas-sized system, this translates to hundreds of millions of dollars in cost savings once the installed PV capacity enables instantaneous solar shares regularly exceeding 40%. Using probabilistic forecasts also greatly increases the reliability of upward reserve provision from solar PV, reducing unserved reserves by 50%–100%. Both day-ahead forecast resolution and errors can impact system reliability at high solar shares, but the stochastic formulation has significant value, mitigating reliability impacts on over-forecast days.

Fault tree analysis of fires on rooftops with photovoltaic systems

A fault tree analysis of fires related to photovoltaic (PV) systems was made with a focus of understanding the failure rate of the electric components. The failure rate of different components of these systems was calculated from data obtained from reports, research studies, and fire incident statistics of four countries. The results explain the significant causes of fire on the component level and various failure patterns resulting in PV-related fires. The qualitative analysis identified seven major events that led to incidents caused by a PV-related ignition source, with electrical arcing being the main cause of fires. This finding is highly related to the imprudent installation practices due to negligence and low awareness of the fire risk associated with PV systems by installers. The quantitative results show that 33% of the PV fire incidents are due to unknown or unrelated ignition sources, indicating that great focus should be given to mitigate the consequences caused by PV-related fires. The PV module, isolator, inverter, and connector are the major PV system components that are highly responsible for the ignition of PV-related fires, with the connector being the prime contributor in 17% of the PV-related fires. Finally, the quantitative analysis established an annual fire incident frequency of 0.0289 fires per MW. The results enable estimation of the number of fire incidents linked to the installed PV capacity, and the fault tree analyses highlight where improvements are most critical. Based on the results of the analyses, two questions are suggested for implementation in the post-incident reports of the national fire and rescue services.

Power Limit Control Strategy for Household Photovoltaic and Energy Storage Inverter

The increased installation capacity of grid-connected household photovoltaic (PV) systems has been witnessed worldwide, and the power grid is facing the challenges of overvoltage during peak power generation and limited frequency regulation performance. With the dual purpose of enhancing the power grid safety and improving the PV utilization rate, the maximum feed-in active power can be regulated by modifying the maximum power point tracking (MPPT) algorithm and battery energy storage (BES) accessibility as control instructions. However, the existing methods not only waste installed PV capacity, but it becomes no longer accessible when the state of charge (SOC) of the BES approaches its upper limit. In response to the above problem, this paper proposes a power limit control strategy to coordinate the MPPT algorithm and the BES accessibility. The proposed strategy directly controls the inverter output current according to the power limit instructions from the electric operation control centers, leading to a bus voltage difference. The difference serves as a control signal for BES and PV. Under a power-limiting scenario, priority is given to power regulation through energy storage to absorb the limited active power. When the SOC of the BES reaches the upper limit of charging, modification of the PV MPPT algorithm facilitates the inverter output power to meet the power limit requirements. To further verify the effectiveness of the proposed power limit control strategy, both simulation and experimental studies are conducted, which consistently indicated a synchronized inverter current with grid voltage and a rapid power response of the power-limiting instruction within 0.2 s. The power limit control strategy not only improves the PV energy utilization but also supports the safe and reliable operation of the power gird in the context of soaring renewable energy penetration.

Cost-Effective Increase of Photovoltaic Electricity Feed-In on Congested Transmission Lines: A Case Study of The Netherlands

In many areas in the world, the high voltage (HV) electricity grid is saturated, which makes it difficult to accommodate additional solar photovoltaic (PV) systems connection requests. In this paper, different scenarios to increase the installed PV capacity in a saturated grid are assessed on the basis of the net present value (NPV). The developed scenarios compare an increase of grid capacity, PV system azimuth variation, curtailment, and battery storage. For each scenario the net present value (NPV) is assessed using an optimization model as a function of the overbuild capacity factor, which is defined as the relative amount of PV capacity added beyond the available capacity. The scenarios are applied on a case study of the Netherlands, and the analysis shows that, by optimising curtailment, a PV system’s capacity can be increased to 120% overbuild capacity. For larger overbuild capacity investments in the electricity-grid are preferred when these costs are taken into account. However, the optimum NPV lies at 40% overbuild, thus the societal and NPV optimum are not always aligned. Furthermore, the use of a battery system as an alternative to an infrastructure upgrade was not found to be a cost-effective solution. Thus, applying curtailment could be cost-efficient to a certain extent to allow for additional PV capacity to be connected to a saturated grid. Furthermore, the inverter size compared to the installed PV capacity should be significantly reduced. For a connection request that exceeds 120% overbuild increasing network capacity should be considered.

Sources of uncertainty in long-term global scenarios of solar photovoltaic technology

The deployment of solar photovoltaic (PV) technology has consistently outpaced expectations over the past decade. However, long-term prospects for PV remain deeply uncertain, as recent global scenarios span two orders of magnitude in installed PV capacity by 2050. Here we systematically compile an ensemble of 1,550 scenarios from peer-reviewed and influential grey literature, including IPCC and non-IPCC scenarios, and apply a statistical learning framework to link scenario characteristics with foreseen PV outcomes. We show that a large portion of the uncertainty in the global scenarios is associated with general features such as the type of organization, energy model and policy assumptions, without referring to specific techno-economic assumptions. IPCC scenarios consistently project lower PV adoption pathways and higher capital costs than non-IPCC scenarios. We thus recommend increasing the diversity of models and scenario methods included in IPCC assessments to represent the multiple perspectives present in the PV scenario literature. Analysis of 1,550 future energy scenarios finds that uncertainty in solar photovoltaic (PV) uptake is mainly driven by institutional differences in designing and modelling these scenarios, rather than PV cost assumptions. This suggests more organizational diversity is needed in IPCC scenario design.