Export Instability Research Articles

Indian marine products exports: Growth, instability and geographical diversification

The export of marine products is a significant source of foreign exchange and plays a crucial role in the Indian economy by generating income and employment opportunities. The marine sector contributed 25% (4.13 million t) to the overall fish production in India during the fiscal year 2022-23. The primary objective of this study is to analyse the growth rate, instability, and geographical diversification of marine product exports in terms of both quantity and value. Secondary data related to the major export destinations (Japan, USA, European Union, China, South-East Asia, Middle East and others) and item-wise export (shrimp, finfish, cuttlefish, squid, dried, live, chilled and others) of marine products from India during the period 2000-01 to 2019-20 were collected from the Marine Product Export Development Authority (MPEDA). The growth rate, instability and geographical diversification of exports were estimated using the semi-log regression model, instability index (Ray’s method) and Simpson’s diversity index, respectively. The findings reveal that the overall growth rate of marine product exports over the last two decades was 7.13%. Dry fish exhibited the highest growth rate (15.34%) among all products, and South-East Asia showed the highest growth rate (16.05%) among destinations. However, a significant decline in growth rates of export quantity and value was observed between the two decades for all items, except for frozen shrimp, accompanied by an increase in export instability. The Simpson’s diversity index indicated a significant diversification of 70%, reflecting wide variety of marine products exported as well as the broad range of destination countries. Keywords: Ray’s instability index, Seafood exports, Simpson diversity index, Growth rate

GROWTH TRENDS AND INSTABILITY IN EXPORT OF AGRICULTURAL CROPS FROM INDIA: AN ECONOMIC ANALYSIS

India is the largest producer and exporter of cereal products in the world. The present paper analyse the growth trends and instability in export of agricultural crops from India with the objectives to examine growth trends and instability in export of agricultural commodities from India and to identify the major destination of India for exporting of agricultural commodities from India. To fulfill the objectives secondary data from 2010-11 to 2023-24 has been utilized for analysis using the statistical tools like Compound Annual Growth Rates, Coefficient of Variation and Cuddy Della Valle’s Instability Index. The study revealed that during the period the export of some commodities in terms of quantity like maize and other cereals show a negative growth rate. In terms of value other cereals also showed negative growth. The export growth rates of foodgrain such as basmati rice, non-basmati rice, wheat and millets are positive in case of quantity. The quantity of export of agricultural cash crops such as coffee, sugar and groundnut has shown positive growth rate while tea, cashew and cotton have shown a negative growth rate. Other cereals have shown the highest instability index value indicating the highest instability and variability among others in both cases quantity and value term. In term of value, cotton has shown the high level of instability index value indicating the highest instability and variability among others. India’s key markets for cereals crops are Saudi Arab, Benin, Vietnam, Nepal, United Arab Emirates, Russia and Bangladesh, while cash crops are mainly exported to the United Arab Emirates, Italy, Sudan, Indonesia and Bangladesh. KEYWORDS: Agriculture, foodgrain, cash crop, export, growth, instability

An insight into the trend and instability of processed fruits export from India

India is one of the world’s leading fruit and vegetable producers after China owing to its diverse agro-climatic conditions. However, the 20-30 percent of the produce is wasted because of its perishability. The processed form of fruits is the most convenient for storage and export owing to its demand in foreign countries. Hence, this study analyzed the growth and instability of different processed fruit exports in India from 2001-02 to 2022-23. The Compound Annual Growth rates showed that exports increased overall growth rate, with a higher growth rate for jam, jelly and marmalades at 12 percent, followed by dried fruits (9 percent) and mango pulp (0.08 percent) in quantity exported. The instability was calculated using the Cuddy-Della Index for processed fruits’ export values (MT). It was realized from the result that the mango pulp category showed high instability in the overall export with Cuddy-Della Index value of 26.16 percent. In contrast, jam, jelly, marmalades, and dried fruits showed instability of 23.86 percent and 24.8 percent, respectively. This study concluded that proper infrastructure, cold chain, and supply chain for horticultural commodities should be developed for destination-specific production of processed fruits, as this could lead India to compete with global exporters and explore new alternate markets for the produce.

The Impact of Export Volatility on Economic Growth in Algeria during 1992-2016: An Econometric Study

Objectives: The issue of export volatility in the economies of less developed countries (LDCs) is a significant topic of debate in economic literature. This paper aims to investigate the potential effect of export volatility on economic performance in Algeria. Methods: The study utilizes an econometric model to estimate the impact of export volatility on economic growth in Algeria for the period 1992-2016. Additionally, another regression model is used to analyze the effects of fluctuations in export prices and quantities on economic growth in Algeria. Results: The findings show that there is no significant relationship between the export instability index and real GDP. Conclusion: The study concludes that fluctuations in the prices and quantities of exports do not influence Algeria’s real GDP. Policymakers should reduce the dependency of the export sector on oil products and improve industrial performance in Algeria. Implementing price stabilization schemes and allocating more oil precautionary funds are also needed to mitigate any possible damaging effects of export volatility on Algeria’s economy in the future.

Export Instability, Investment, Export Growth and Economic Growth in India

The “Export-led Growth Hypothesis,” as it is known in the literature, is still a popular issue in both theoretical and empirical research. According to the export-led growth hypothesis (ELGH), a key factor in determining growth is the expansion of exports. It asserts that growing capital and labour inputs into the economy as well as exports can contribute to a country’s overall growth. The association between economic development, export growth, export fluctuation, and real effective exchange rate (REER) in India from 2001 to 2021 is examined in this paper using a multiple linear regression analysis model. Additionally, the impacts of foreign exchange, export fluctuation on investment, and import of capital goods have also been studied. The autocorrelation is also tested using the Durbin-Watson (D-W) test. Investigation of the association between income growth and exports in the context of India reveals that the country’s exports haven’t increased significantly enough to prove the theory of export-led growth. For instance, ceteris paribus, one per cent change in exports over time is expected to result in a 0.007 per cent increase in GDP. Weaker global demand, inflation, dropping exports, and growing global trade conflict all contribute to a weaker-than-expected positive link between GDP and exports. However, the findings have also shown that one per cent rise in instability increases GDP by 5.04 per cent. Furthermore, research has indicated that export instability does contribute to import for capital goods and demonstrates the relationship between investment and export instability is positive but not statistically significant. The result for policy is that, in order to decrease the negative impacts of export fluctuations, India should concentrate on those goods in which it has a competitive edge. The primary factors of the excessive volatility and restricted growth must be fully investigated in order to mitigate instability, and inherent flaws must be addressed.

Analysis of Export Opportunities and Performance in India

Export refers to a product or service produced in one country but sold to a buyer abroad. Exports are one of the oldest forms of economic transfer, growth and occur on a large scale between nations. India's share of merchandise exports amounted to around 1.6 percent of the total global exports. Moreover, the share of commercial service exports from the country was higher at 3.5 percent during that same period. Exports have played an increasingly important role in India’s economic growth in the last two decades. Increasing demand and Growing population have an immense scope for international trade. Through international trade countries have started to export their surplus commodities that are produced to satisfy the unlimited and scare wants of the particular commodity in another country. In this paper we will be go through various opportunities available for exports from India. We could significantly expand markets, increase economic growth and opportunities, leaving less dependent on any single one. Greater production can lead to larger economies of scale and better margins. Research and development budget could work harder as you can change existing products to suit new markets. Exports provide the basis for sustainable development by earning necessary foreign exchange for the country to import necessary products. India has a wealthy history of International trade and is steadily working to harvest the benefits in the best possible manner. Growth of any developing country is direct related to its exports. If exports are greater than imports then nothing can stop a country from being a developed one. But on the other hand if there is instability in exports or if the exports of any developing country are less than its imports then it adversely affect the process of its economic development. Decrease in exports means low foreign exchange earnings which means less purchasing capacity of a country in the international market

Bilateral political ties and the stability of services exports

AbstractThis study examines the effect of bilateral political ties on the stability of service exports. The results show that the deterioration of political ties can decrease the stability of service exports by strengthening non‐tariff barriers and weakening immigration networks. A decrease in voting similarity among trading partners in the United Nations General Assembly corresponds to heightened instability in service exports. In particular, political ties have a more pronounced impact on the stability of tourism service exports than on other services. Developing countries, in contrast to developed countries, should pay particular attention to the impact of political ties on the stability of service exports. Moreover, improvements in technological advantages and Internet openness in exporting countries can weaken the impact of political ties.

Tea Trade Scenario in the Pre and Post Liberalization Period in India

Indian tea, which has maintained its supremacy both in production and export for more than a century, has started to lose its pre-eminence. Other tea producing countries like China, Kenya, Sri Lanka and Kenya are strongly competing for Market share. The increase in production in China has pushed India to second position in production and the country lost its domination of the export market to Kenya, China and Sri Lanka. Given this backdrop, the present study attempts to analyse the export growth, instability in export earnings, export quantity and unit value and concentration of export destinations evaluate India’s tea export performance. The growth of export quantity, value and unit value from India (1988-2022) was worked out using compound growth rate and the results indicated an increased growth in the post–WTO period which could be attributed to the expansion in trade to the Near East, with their growth and strength of the economies in the region (Hicks, 2009). Instability in export can affect the economic growth of the country as it has adverse effect on the countries export earnings, trade balance, and confidence of international trading partners. The export instability calculated using Coppock’s instability index showed an increasing trend in the post-WTO period. In 1990’s about 6 countries viz., U.S.S.R, U.K, Iran, Iraq, Egypt and Poland accounted for about 90 per cent of total tea exports from India. But over a period of time the demand in these countries weakened. The Indian exports continue to lose volume in countries like Russia Europe, USA and some middle east countries (Dutt, 2007). The share in Iraq, Netherland and Poland was maintained and it improved in UAE, Germany, Pakistan and china. Overall in the past 3 decades, India’s world ranking as an exporter has dropped to fourthowing to competition from China, Kenya and Sri Lanka. (Majumder et al., 2010). The reduction in values of the Hirschmann index indicated increased geographic diversification of tea exports thereby reducing the possibility of market risk due to dependence on few markets. The commodity diversification in the form of various tea products exported is very limited, the major share of exports being in the form of black tea especially in bulk form. Received: 1 February 2024 / Accepted: 29 April 2024 / Published: 5 May 2024

Trends, Growth, Production Instability and Export Dynamics Analysis of Basmati Rice in India

The research examined the trends, growth rates, and instability in Basmati rice production and export in India from 2001 to 2021. Secondary time series data on these parameters were collected from diverse sources including the official websites of the Department of Agriculture and Farmer’s Welfare, Directorate General of Commercial Intelligence, the Agricultural and Processed Food Product Export Development Authority (APEDA) and Statistics (DGCI&S) and Ministry of Commerce and Industry. Various analytical tools such as Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) for growth rate analysis, Coefficient of Variation (CV), Coppock Instability Index, Cuddy Della Valle Index, and Index Number for instability analysis, and R-square for linear, second-degree, and polynomial regression for trend analysis were employed which served as a metric for goodness of fit. The analysis revealed significant insights into the dynamics of Basmati rice production and export over the study period. Notable findings include fluctuations in growth rates, trends indicating periods of acceleration or deceleration, and instability factors impacting production and export. These findings contribute to a deeper understanding of the Basmati rice industry in India, informing policymakers, stakeholders,

Growth instability and Comparative Advantage in Export of indian rice

Growth instability and Comparative Advantage in Export of indian rice

Growth and Instability Analysis of Sugar Exports from India

Aims: To work out growth trends and instability in export of sugar and jaggery from India
 Place and Duration of Study: Department of Agricultural Economics, Junagadh Agricultural University (between June 2018 and July 2020).
 Methodology: The present study focused on analyzing the growth and instability in sugar and jaggery export quantity, value and unit value as well for the period from 1996-97 to 2005-06. Exponential growth model and Cuddy-Della index used for growth and instability analysis, respectively.
 Results: study results indicate a notable annual growth rate in sugar export from India, specifically at 17.42, 23.44 and 5.13 per cent for quantity, value and unit value, respectively during the time span from1996-97 to 2018-19. Similarly, jaggery export also followed a comparable trend However, the export of both sugar and jaggery exhibited high volatility, attributed to low production levels during years of scarcity.
 Conclusion: The potential for expanding sugar and jaggery exports is considerable, contingent upon enhancing quality to meet the specific requirements of importing nations. Jaggery, renowned for its nutritional value, warrants increased domestic consumption, thereby contributing to the augmentation of sugarcane farm income.

Performance of growth, instability and comparative Advantage in Export of Fruits and Vegetables from india

Performance of growth, instability and comparative Advantage in Export of Fruits and Vegetables from india

Export Instability Scenario of Chilli and Cumin in India

Export Instability Scenario of Chilli and Cumin in India

Impact of Commodity Concentration and Geographical Concentration upon Export instability in Pakistan

Abstract This research study investigates the factors affecting export instability in Pakistan by using time-series data from 1981 to 2017. The determining factors of export instability in this study are commodity concentration index, geographical concentration index, food ratio, export earnings and total export quantity. The study employs Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) model to investigate the long-run (LR) relationship between export instability and its employed determinants. The empirical evidence reveals that commodity concentration, geographical concentration, food exports and export earnings are the key factors explaining export instability in Pakistan. The study finds the positive relationship between export instability and commodity concentration, while a negative association with geographical concentration. Furthermore, food exports and export earnings are also found to be negatively related to export instability. The study finds that concentration or dependence on a few exports causes export instability in Pakistan, but this problem would be overcome if Pakistan’s commodity basket for exports become diversified.

Why Pakistan Forges Ahead and India Lags Behind? Analysis of Sports Equipment Exports in Global Context

Focusing on India and Pakistan, this article examines their relative performance in sports equipment exports during the 2003–2020 periods. Utilizing secondary trade data available from UN Comtrade, it analyses their performance in sports equipment exports (HS-92) at the six-digit level, mainly to ascertain disparities in export performance at commodity level. Besides drawing inferences about global sports equipment exports (since 1990), it examines sports equipment export performance by tracing the pattern of export composition, export concentration and export growth, along with inferring the incidence of export instability, comparative advantage and trade balance. Indices like Herfindahl–Hirschman index (and its standardized version), Hall–Tideman index, entropy concentration index, Cappock instability index, Cuddy-Della Valle index, Balassa’s measure of comparative advantage and trade balance index are estimated to draw inferences. An analytical exercise indicates that India’s global share has not only declined over time, but it has also been lagging in exporting various types of sports equipment—its comparative advantage has waned over time, whereas such is not the case with Pakistan, which has recorded relatively better performance. A comparative perspective on the nature of the policy framework in both nations is drawn. Moreover, the article examines commodity-wise global dominance of India and Pakistan (in comparison with China) to trace commodities for which these countries have been gaining significance in global markets. Finally, the article urges the Indian State to devote serious attention to strengthening sports goods manufacturing in India, as India is currently facing a trade deficit in the global trade of sports equipment.

Impacts of natural rubber export trajectories on the regional development of the Brazilian Amazon Region between 1827 and 2021

This study has the following objectives: a - to estimate the instabilities and behavior of the trajectories of prices and exports of Brazilian natural rubber in each of the periods; b - to estimate forecast models of prices and exports of natural rubber from 1827 to 2021; c - to estimate the impacts of price forecast errors on the forecast errors of Brazilian rubber exports in the three periods that classify the trajectory of natural rubber exports. The research used data from the Brazilian Institute of Geography and the Brazilian Ministry of Industry and Trade. ARIMA models are estimated to predict the series of exports and prices of Brazilian natural rubber. From these models the forecast errors are generated and the influence of price forecast errors on the forecast errors of natural rubber exports is evaluated. Growth rates of exports and prices in the three periods studied were estimated, as well as the levels of instability of exports and prices. The results showed that both prices and exports of Brazilian natural rubber were quite unstable in the three periods evaluated and that the forecast errors of prices, as was one of the hypotheses of the research, interfered differently in the forecast errors of natural rubber exports and that exports had positive growth rates before and during the rubber cycle, while prices only had positive growth rates before and during the rubber cycle.

GROWTH AND INSTABILITY OF EXPORT OF SELECTED FRUITS AND VEGETABLES IN PAKISTAN

The present study was conducted in Faisalabad at Social Sciences Research Institute, Pakistan Agricultural Reseaerch Council, Ayub Agricultural Research Institute, Faisalabad, Pakistan during 2019. Countries wise time series data of exported fruits and vegetables were taken from AMIS for finding instability of commodities and countries. Current study focused on the compound annual growth rates of production, export quantity and value of mostly exported fruits and vegetables. Growth trends of selected commodities were executed by using semitrend growth model. Coefficient of variation technique was used to find out instability of specific commodity for specific country/market. Selected exported vegetables (potato, tomato, onion and garlic) indicated instability results for Sri Lanka, Malaysia, Qatar and Indonesia among given markets and within the given period. Among fruits kinnow export shared 24.96, mango export results showed 22.08 percent share in total fruits export followed by 13.55 percent share of orange and 8.6 percent export share of dates dried in total export from Pakistan. Results observed for instability of exports to countries, minimum value of coefficient of variation (24.34 percent) was recorded for Bahrein market for kinnow export and Bahrein market was stable among given markets. Similarly, mango results showed that export of mango to Germany market was stable among given markets and within the given period. Export of orange to Saudi Arabia market and export of dates to Bangladesh market was stable among given markets within the given period of time. Finally, in order to lessen the instability, it can be proposed that Pakistan ought to take steps to boost the exports of primary commodity and value added products to raise revenue profitable.

Growth, instability and comparative advantage in export of groundnut from India

Groundnut is the top exported commodity among the major oilseeds. India’s groundnut exports during 2021-22 stood at US$ 629.28 million. India’s major export destinations for groundnuts are Indonesia, Vietnam, Philippines, Malaysia, Thailand, Russia, Bangladesh, Nepal, Singapore, Iran, etc. An attempt was made through the present study to examine the growth, instability and comparative advantage in exports of groundnut from India. The results revealed that Groundnut exports to world registered highly significant growth rate of 16.09 % with high degree of instability of 36.11% per annum. Among the major destination highest growth were reported by Vietnam at the rate of 71.17 % followed by Thailand 55.18%, Russia 43.32%, Philippines 19.06%, Indonesia 13.51% etc. The instability in groundnut export was also shows high during the period. The study also calculated the comparative advantage among the major exporter of groundnut and revealed that India has highest comparative advantage among the major competitors. Because the value of revealed comparative advantage (RCA) and revealed symmetric comparative advantage (RSCA) was high in groundnut export by India among the major competitors. Highlights : India’s major export destinations for groundnuts are Indonesia, Vietnam, Philippines, Malaysia, Thailand, Russia, Bangladesh, Nepal, Singapore, Iran, etc., India has highest comparative advantage among the major competitors.

Instability in banana export from India

Instability in banana export from India

Growth and Instability of International Trade of Jute in India

India is the largest producer of jute in the world. Among the important jute producing countries in the world, India had gained the first position in 2020 by producing about 1807 thousand tonnes of jute on an area of 691 thousand hectares and contributing a share of 67.21 and 49.47 per cent to the world’s total production and area of jute, respectively. In the present study efforts have been made to examine the growth performance of international trade of jute in India. The study was based on secondary data for the period of 30 years (1989-90 to 2018-19). The collected data were sub-divided into three periods, and the exponential growth function was used to anlysed the growth rates of jute. The instability in area, production, productivity, export and import were measured by Coppock’s Instability Index (CII) and Cuddy Della Valle’s Instability Index (CDVI). The results of growth rate showed negative trend in area of jute but production and productivity showed positive growth rates over the study period. All the parameters viz., export quantity, export value, export unit price, import quantity, import value and import unit price shown positive growth rates during overall period and found to be significant at 1 per cent level of significance. It was concluded that, India has been associated with moderate degree of variability in the jute production and productivity in the first sub period and this variability has been reduced significantly during the second and third period, while area recorded less variability during the study period. All the parameters viz., export quantity, export value, import quantity and import value have experienced high instability while the export unit price and import unit price registered stability during the study period.