Initial Probability Research Articles

Analysis of Consecutive Days Maximum Rainfall Together With Dry, Wet Spell Rainfall for Crop Planning at Jorhat (Assam), India

In this study, frequency analyses of 1 to 6 consecutive days maximum rainfalls have been carried out. For this purpose, the daily rainfall data for 23 years has been collected from the Indian Meteorological Department (IMD), Guwahati for Jorhat Station. Based on L-moment, we consider the probability distributions like Log Normal (LN), Pearson Type III (P III), Log-Pearson Type III (LP III), and Extreme Value Type I (EVI). The best-fitting probability distribution for consecutive days maximum rainfall is discussed for estimating the rainfall in different return periods such as 2 to 100 years. Also, the daily rainfall data are converted to 52 standard meteorological weeks (SMW) to use the Markov Chain Probability model. Then average, maximum, minimum, standard deviation, and covariance of rainfall are calculated. By using this model, initial and conditional probabilities of dry and wet weeks are calculated. The probability of onset and withdrawal rainy season are calculated which are 95.83% chance during 23rd and 47th weeks. And, we find a relation of average rainfall and effective rainfall (ER) of the station.

Study on the steady state of the propagation model of consumers’ perceived service quality in the community group-buying

The consumption stickiness relationship established by community group buying is a typical complex social network. The network structure, member size, interaction frequency and purchase quantity are determined by the effective communication of customer perceived service quality (PSQ). This paper introduces the social reinforcement effect to construct a G-SCIR model of PSQ propagation in the community group-buying, and improves the calculation method of propagation probability and node status attributes. We use numerical simulation methods to explore how the social reinforcement effect can promote the spread of PSQ and achieve a steady state by influencing recovered nodes. The simulation results show that the G-SCIR model proposed in the paper has better stability and higher coverage than the traditional SCIR model. The change trend of the attributes of each node in the network is also closer to the real one, which can effectively simulate the propagation process and evolution characteristics of PSQ in the context of community group-buying. Meanwhile, the paper verifies that the steady state of PSQ propagation is usually affected by its initial conversion probability of community group-buying, its upper limit and social reinforcement factor, and there are significant Markov properties in the propagation process of PSQ. The findings may further enrich the community business and online group buying theory, and provide theoretical reference and practical guidance for community group-buying enterprises to optimize market layout and formulate scientific communication strategies.

Slowly evolving dopaminergic activity modulates the moment-to-moment probability of reward-related self-timed movements.

Clues from human movement disorders have long suggested that the neurotransmitter dopamine plays a role in motor control, but how the endogenous dopaminergic system influences movement is unknown. Here, we examined the relationship between dopaminergic signaling and the timing of reward-related movements in mice. Animals were trained to initiate licking after a self-timed interval following a start-timing cue; reward was delivered in response to movements initiated after a criterion time. The movement time was variable from trial-to-trial, as expected from previous studies. Surprisingly, dopaminergic signals ramped-up over seconds between the start-timing cue and the self-timed movement, with variable dynamics that predicted the movement/reward time on single trials. Steeply rising signals preceded early lick-initiation, whereas slowly rising signals preceded later initiation. Higher baseline signals also predicted earlier self-timed movements. Optogenetic activation of dopamine neurons during self-timing did not trigger immediate movements, but rather caused systematic early-shifting of movement initiation, whereas inhibition caused late-shifting, as if modulating the probability of movement. Consistent with this view, the dynamics of the endogenous dopaminergic signals quantitatively predicted the moment-by-moment probability of movement initiation on single trials. We propose that ramping dopaminergic signals, likely encoding dynamic reward expectation, can modulate the decision of when to move.

Dynamic and quantitative risk assessment under uncertainty during deepwater managed pressure drilling

Risk assessment plays an important role in facilitating the safety and sustainability of deepwater drilling. Managed pressure drilling is increasingly used as an alternative to conventional drilling techniques. This technique increases the complexity and uncertainty of drilling systems with enhancement and advancement of functions. This paper presents a dynamic Bayesian network for risk assessment of managed pressure drilling. The method follows four basic steps including risk identification, topology construction, uncertainty characterization, and consequence evaluation. An event tree-fault tree model was established to develop potential accident scenarios and mapped into a Bayesian network to capture interdependencies and conditional relationships among the contributing factors. Both stochastic uncertainties and fuzzy uncertainties of risk factors are considered in the determination of failure probabilities. Degradation effects of equipment components are included in the forward reasoning of Bayesian network. The case study shows that the initial probability of the blowout is 2.28 × 10−5 and increases to 1.28 × 10−4 in ten time-intervals. Decision makers can take measures to prevent, eliminate, or mitigate accidents of deepwater drilling based on the evaluation results.

Socioeconomic disadvantage and human papillomavirus (HPV) vaccination uptake

ImportanceDespite availability of safe and effective human papillomavirus (HPV) vaccines, vaccination uptake remains low in the U.S. Research examining the impact of neighborhood socioeconomic status on HPV vaccination may help target interventions. ObjectiveTo examine the association between area deprivation and HPV vaccine initiation and completion. Design, setting, participantsRetrospective cohort study of individuals aged 11–18 years residing in the upper Midwest region. Receipt of HPV vaccination was examined over a three-year follow-up period (01/01/2016–12/31/2018). Main outcomes and measuresOutcomes of interest were initiation and completion of HPV vaccination. Demographic data were collected from the Rochester Epidemiology Project (REP). Area-level socioeconomic disadvantage was measured by calculating an Area Deprivation Index (ADI) score for each person, a measure of socioeconomic disadvantage derived from American Community Survey data. Multivariable mixed effect Cox proportional hazards models were used to examine the association of ADI quartiles (Q1-Q4) with HPV vaccine series initiation and completion, given initiation. ResultsIndividuals residing in census block groups with higher deprivation had significantly lower likelihood of HPV vaccine initiation (Q2: HR = 0.91, 0.84–0.99 Q3: HR = 0.83, 0.76–0.90; Q4: HR = 0.84, 0.74–0.96) relative to those in the least-deprived block groups (Q1). Similarly, those living in block groups with higher deprivation had significantly lower likelihood of completion (Q2: HR = 0.91, 0.86–0.97; Q3: HR = 0.87, 0.81–0.94; Q4: HR = 0.82, 0.74–0.92) compared to individuals in the least-deprived block groups (Q1). Conclusions and relevanceLower probability of both HPV vaccine-series initiation and completion were observed in areas with greater deprivation. Our results can inform allocation of resources to increase HPV vaccination rates in our primary care practice and provide an example of leveraging public data to inform similar efforts across diverse health systems.

Durability assessment of a tunnel structure with two‐sided chloride ingress—A case study located in a tropical environment

AbstractReinforced concrete structures are the backbone of the transportation infrastructure. Their structural safety and functional performance are critical to sustaining a globalized economy. Corrosion of steel reinforcement is typically triggered by chloride contamination and carbonation, becoming a primary factor in reinforced concrete deterioration. This paper presents a durability assessment of a tunnel structure located in a tropical marine environment. The condition assessment included visual examination, crack survey, cover depth measurements, half‐cell potential mapping, and concrete coring. The chloride profiles showed that the tunnel walls are subjected to chloride attack from both surfaces, an unusual finding in the literature. A stochastic approach is implemented to estimate the probability of corrosion initiation for chlorides and carbonation, including an innovative model for two‐sided chloride diffusion. The results indicate that two‐sided chloride exposure significantly reduces the corrosion initiation time.

Analysis on Decision-Making Changes of Multilevel Governments and Influencing Factors in Watershed Ecological Compensation

Watershed ecological compensation has been widely accepted as a system to promote the cooperation of various stakeholders to solve the problem of transboundary water pollution, but the existing research does not fully consider the impact of compensation fee paid by different governments on stakeholders’ decision-making. Therefore, this paper constructs a tripartite game model between upstream governments, downstream governments, and the central government by using evolutionary game theory and determines the influence of different factors on the decision-making process of each player through simulation. The results show the following: (1) the initial probability significantly affects the decision-making behavior of each player; (2) daily supervision of the central government and the reduction of the environmental protection cost can promote the implementation of watershed ecological compensation; (3) the fine to downstream governments makes the decisions of the central government and downstream governments change periodically; and (4) the increase of ecological compensation fee urges downstream governments to choose noncompensation, and compensation fee paid by the central government has a critical value.

Effect of load-capacity heterogeneity on cascading overloads in networks.

Heterogeneity in the load capacity of nodes is a common characteristic of many real-world networks that can dramatically affect their robustness to cascading overloads. However, most studies seeking to model cascading failures have ignored variations in nodal load capacity and functionality. The present study addresses this issue by extending the local load redistribution model to include heterogeneity in nodal load capacity and heterogeneity in the types of nodes employed in the network configuration and exploring how these variations affect network robustness. Theoretical and numerical analyses demonstrate that the extent of cascading failure is influenced by heterogeneity in nodal load capacity, while it is relatively insensitive to heterogeneity in nodal configuration. Moreover, the probability of cascading failure initiation at the critical state increases as the range of nodal load capacities increases. However, for large-scale networks with degree heterogeneity, a wide range of nodal load capacities can also suppress the spread of failure after its initiation. In addition, the analysis demonstrates that heterogeneity in nodal load capacity increases and decreases the extent of cascading failures in networks with sublinear and superlinear load distributions, respectively. These findings may provide some practical implications for controlling the spread of cascading failure.

Improved Fusion of Spatial Information into Hyperspectral Classification through the Aggregation of Constrained Segment Trees: Segment Forest

Compared with traditional optical and multispectral remote sensing images, hyperspectral images have hundreds of bands that can provide the possibility of fine classification of the earth’s surface. At the same time, a hyperspectral image is an image that coexists with the spatial and spectral. It has become a hot research topic to combine the spatial spectrum information of the image to classify hyperspectral features. Based on the idea of spatial–spectral classification, this paper proposes a novel hyperspectral image classification method based on a segment forest (SF). Firstly, the first principal component of the image was extracted by the process of principal component analysis (PCA) data dimension reduction, and the data constructed the segment forest after dimension reduction to extract the non-local prior spatial information of the image. Secondly, the images’ initial classification results and probability distribution were obtained using support vector machine (SVM), and the spectral information of the images was extracted. Finally, the segment forest constructed above is used to optimize the initial classification results and obtain the final classification results. In this paper, three domestic and foreign public data sets were selected to verify the segment forest classification. SF effectively improved the classification accuracy of SVM, and the overall accuracy of Salinas was enhanced by 11.16%, WHU-Hi-HongHu by 15.89%, and XiongAn by 19.56%. Then, it was compared with six decision-level improved space spectrum classification methods, including guided filtering (GF), Markov random field (MRF), random walk (RW), minimum spanning tree (MST), MST+, and segment tree (ST). The results show that the segment forest-based hyperspectral image classification improves accuracy and efficiency compared with other algorithms, proving the algorithm’s effectiveness.

Long-term occupancy dynamics of the threatened Cheat Mountain salamander and its competitors in relation to linear habitat fragmentation

Amphibians are declining globally and while many factors are contributing to this decline, habitat loss and degradation caused by climate and land use changes are among the most critical. Habitat degradation and increased interspecific competition are both concerns for long-term viability of the federally-threatened Cheat Mountain salamander (Plethodon nettingi) which is endemic to high elevations in West Virginia. In this study, we quantified the impacts of linear habitat fragmentation (i.e., a linear forest clearing for creation of a ski slope) on local colonization and extinction probabilities in adjacent forested habitat for the Cheat Mountain salamander and two co-occurring competitor species, eastern red-backed salamander (Plethodon cinereus) and Wehrle’s salamander (Plethodon wehrlei). We also quantified long-term changes in total occupancy of the species within the high elevation study area. We surveyed the salamander community annually from 1988 to 2021 using diurnal natural cover object searches at 43 plots, with 1988 representing three years following linear habitat fragmentation. For each species, we used dynamic occupancy models to identify and model influential covariates for initial occupancy, colonization, extinction, and detection probability. We found that distance to fragmentation was positively correlated with colonization probability for Cheat Mountain salamanders, indicating negative edge effects of the linear forest clearing. Distance to fragmentation was negatively correlated with colonization probability for eastern red-backed salamanders, potentially indicating this species benefited from increased solar radiation or reduced competition from Cheat Mountain salamanders. Predicted occupancy of eastern red-backed salamanders and Wehrle’s salamanders increased over the 34 year monitoring period, indicating potential for increased competitive interactions. Our study suggests that extensive linear habitat fragmentation could result in degraded habitat for Cheat Mountain salamanders in the adjacent forest, and that potential for interactions with competitor species is increasing in high elevation forest stands.

Reliability modelling for linear and circular [formula omitted]-out-of-[formula omitted]: F systems with shared components

Reliability analysis for k-out-of-n systems has received much attention in the field of reliability due to its practical importance. In this work, models for linear and circular k-out-of-n: F systems with shared components, consisting of m subsystems, are discussed. The finite Markov chain imbedding approach cannot be used directly to derive reliability of the considered systems because of the common area existing between adjacent subsystems. For this reason, we first derive the probability that the number of failed components is a given value in the m common areas. Then, all disjoint cases, each of which is regarded as a series system consisting of m subsystems with different initial state probability distributions, are obtained, with which the nith step transition rate matrix is calculated by using the Markov chain technique, for i=1,2,…,m. Finally, the reliability of the system is obtained by summing the reliabilities of all cases along with the finite Markov chain imbedding approach. Some numerical examples are presented to illustrate the efficiency of the proposed reliability evaluation method.

Quantification and Characterization of Microdamage Resistance in Metals for Designing High-Strength Ductile Microstructures

ConspectusFractures in metallic materials such as ductile austenitic, ferritic, and dual-phase steels often occur after significant plastic deformation. The dislocation-driven plasticity enhances the microscopic stress concentration and induces vacancies (e.g., by the jogged screw dislocation motion), resulting in microstructure-scale cracks and voids at specific crystallographic planes or microstructure boundaries. (Hereafter, cracks and voids are referred to as damage.) In addition, plasticity plays important roles in microscopic damage growth in terms of damage tip blunting and coalescence. In fact, plasticity-related damage evolution in various fracture phenomena such as metal fatigue and hydrogen embrittlement still contains many uncertainties, particularly in high-strength materials containing fine and complex microstructures. Therefore, microscopy-based damage quantification and characterization are required for designing damage-resistant microstructures. In this context, because damage evolution is a multiscale phenomenon from atomistic to over millimeter scales, the target size of damage in the measurements is important to realize reliable analyses. The intrinsic origin of damage evolution is an atomistic/nanometer scale phenomenon, which requires transmission electron microscopy for its analysis. However, from mechanical viewpoints, revealing damage nucleation behavior is not necessary, because general mechanical analyses are performed for oversubmicrometer-sized damages that can be observed by optical microscopy and scanning electron microscopy. Hence, submicrometer/micrometer-sized damage is the major target in this damage quantification. As a post-mortem analysis method, the damage area fraction, the number of damages, the damage size, and the damage shape at various plastic strains can be quantified by observing micrometer-sized damages. In the case of monotonic tensile deformation, the number density of damages plotted against strain indicate the damage initiation probability. In addition, when damages stop growing, a strain range where the average damage size remains nearly constant appears. The strain range quantitatively indicates damage arrestability. For instance, dual-phase steel consisting of soft and hard body-centered cubic phases clearly shows three strain-dependent damage evolution regimes: (1) damage incubation regime (no damage appears), (2) damage arrest regime (damage initiates, but stops growing immediately), and (3) damage growth regime. Hydrogen uptake increases damage initiation probability and decreases damage arrestability. Specifically, a comparison of the quantified damage parameters between specimens with and without hydrogen revealed that large amounts of hydrogen in the dual-phase steel degrades the resistance to microscopic damage growth, which critically decreases the macroscopic ductility. In this case, the damage arrestability (damage growth resistance) is more important than crack initiation resistance, which is dependent on the dislocation-driven stress accommodation capability of soft microstructure components surrounding the crack initiation site. Thus, damage quantification enables the evaluation and classification of microscopic problems in plasticity-related fractures. After the classification of the problems, the underlying mechanisms for damage initiation and growth must be clarified separately. To reveal the mechanisms, full-field micrometer-scale strain mapping and site-specific dislocation characterization are required for damage initiation and growth. To fulfill these demands, new techniques were developed, such as micrometer-scale replica digital image correlation and dislocation-resolved in situ electron channeling contrast imaging. Based on the deformation/dislocation characterization results, metallurgical models of damage evolution can be developed, enabling to propose a mechanism-based microstructure-design strategy for creating damage-resistant high-strength materials.

Prescription opioid treatment for non-cancer pain and initiation of injection drug use: large retrospective cohort study

ObjectiveTo assess the association between long term prescription opioid treatment medically dispensed for non-cancer pain and the initiation of injection drug use (IDU) among individuals without a history of substance...

Early Postpartum Patterns of Breastfeeding Exclusivity and Perceived Insufficient Milk by Prepregnancy Body Mass Index

ObjectiveTo explore trajectories of breastfeeding exclusivity and perceived insufficient milk (PIM) over the first 8 weeks postpartum among primiparous women and the association of these trajectories with prepregnancy body mass index (BMI). DesignSecondary analysis of data from a randomized controlled trial. SettingRecruitment for the primary study was conducted in Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania. ParticipantsOne hundred twenty-two primiparous women with intention to exclusively breastfeed. MethodsWe used group-based trajectory modeling to classify participants into breastfeeding exclusivity and PIM trajectory groups. We used logistic regression to explore the predictive relationship between prepregnancy BMI and breastfeeding exclusivity and PIM trajectory group memberships. ResultsWe identified two trajectories each for breastfeeding exclusivity and PIM over the first 8 weeks postpartum. For breastfeeding exclusivity, one group (n = 60, 49%) had low initial probability of exclusive breastfeeding with linear decline in likelihood of exclusivity over time. The other group (n = 62, 51%) had greater initial probability of exclusive breastfeeding, which remained constant over time. For PIM, one group (n = 41, 34%) had consistently greater probability of endorsing PIM at each time point, whereas the other group (n = 81, 66%) had consistently low probability of endorsing PIM over time. Prepregnancy BMI did not predict group membership in breastfeeding exclusivity, χ2(1) = 2.8, p = .094, or PIM, χ2(1) = 0.72, p = .397. ConclusionBreastfeeding exclusivity and PIM appeared to be relatively stable phenomena in the postpartum period among a sample of predominately White primiparous women who intended to breastfeed. We did not find a clear association with prepregnancy BMI.

Characterisation of rice fallow period for increasing cropping intensity in Khordha district of Odisha

The possibility of increasing the cropping intensity in Khordha district was assessed by block-wise characterisation of rainfall, soil texture, available water holding capacity of soil and district level temperature during the rice fallow period as well as deciding the appropriate sowing window for both kharif and rabi crops. More than 50% chances of occurrence of wet weeks at the beginning of the kharif season (20-22 SMW) indicated that the summer ploughing and initial seed bed preparation could be taken up during the period followed by sowing of rice from 23 SMW. The 42-43 SMW with greater than 30% initial probability of wet week at 20 mm threshold limit. Considering the length of growing period (LGP) available, the adjustment of rice variety duration by 10-15 days in medium land and advancement of pulse sowing almost by 15 days before harvest of the rice crop (Pira crop) in low land was registered as the best su suitable option for rabi pulses to ensure better utilisation of rice fallow. In addition to these, harvesting surplus water during kharif and storing in farm ponds for judicious utilisation during rabi season further enhanced the possibility of utilisation of rice fallow and increasing the cropping intensity. In the event of delayed monsoon the rice duration has to be adjusted accordingly not to sacrifice the designated suitable period for rabi pulses.

Rethinking the uncertainty of African swine fever virus contamination in feed ingredients and risk of introduction into the United States.

Economically relevant pathogens, such as African swine fever virus (ASFV), have been shown to survive when experimentally inoculated in some feed ingredients under the environmental conditions in transoceanic transport models. However, these models did not characterize the likelihood of virus survival under various time and temperature processes that feed ingredients undergo before they are added to swine diets. Here, we developed a quantitative risk assessment model to estimate the probability that one or more corn or soybean meal ocean vessels (25,000 tonnes) contaminated with ASFV would be imported into the United States annually. This final probability estimate was conditionally based on five likelihoods: the probability of initial ASFV contamination (p0), ASFV inactivation during processing (p1) and transport (p2), recontamination (pR), and ASFV inactivation while awaiting customs clearance at United States entry (p3). The probability of ASFV inactivation was modelled using corn and soybean (extruded or solvent extracted) processing conditions (times and temperatures), D-values (time to reduce 90% or 1-log) estimated from studies of ASFV thermal inactivation in pork serum (p1), and survival in feed ingredients during transoceanic transport (p2 and p3). 'What-if' scenarios using deterministic values for p0 and pR (1%, 10%, 25%, 50%, 75%, and 100%) were used to explore their impact on risk. The model estimated complete inactivation of ASFV after extrusion or solvent extraction processes regardless of the initial ASFV contamination probability assumed. The value of recontamination (ranging from 1% to 75%) was highly influential on the risk of one ASFV-contaminated soybean meal vessel entering the United States. Median risk estimates ranged from 0.064% [0.006%-0.60%; 95% probability interval (PI)], assuming a pR of 1.0%, up to 4.67% (0.45%-36.50% 95% PI) assuming a pR of 75.0%. This means that at least one vessel with ASFV-contaminated soybean meal would be imported once every 1563-21 years, respectively. When all raw corn was assumed to be contaminated (p0=100%), and no recontamination was assumed to occur (pR=0%), the median probability of one vessel with ASFV-contaminated corn entering the United States was 2.02% (0.28%-9.43% 95% PI) or once every 50 years. Values of recontamination between 1% and 75% did not substantially change the risk of corn. Days of transport, virus survival during transport (D-value), and number of vessels shipped were the parameters most influential for increased likelihood of a vessel with ASFV-contaminated soybean meal or corn entering the United States. The model helped to identify knowledge gaps that are most influential on output values and serves as a framework that could be updated and parameterized as new scientific information becomes available. We propose that the quantitative risk assessment model developed in this study can be used as a framework for estimating the risk of ASFV entry into the United States and other ASFV-free countries through other types of imported feed ingredients that may potentially become contaminated. Ultimately, this model can be used to develop risk mitigation strategies and critical control points for inactivating ASFV during feed ingredient processing, storage, and transport, and contribute to the design and implementation of biosecurity measures to prevent the introduction of ASFV into the United States and other ASFV-free countries.

An evolutionary game approach for private sectors’ behavioral strategies in China’s green energy public–private partnership projects

To improve sustainable energy utilization and production, the green energy public–private partnership (PPP) projects are supported by the government which encourages green power generation and selling, and attract the private sectors’ attention. To ensure the project success, analyzing the willingness of the private sectors participating in the project and investigating their behavioral strategies become crucial and necessary. This paper uses the evolutionary game theory to explore the behavioral strategies of private sectors from the perspectives of green energy generators and sellers, considering multiple influencing factors during green energy production in a PPP project. An evolutionary game model to investigate the relationship between stakeholders is established. The evolutionary stable strategy (ESS) are calculated and influencing parameters are discussed. A numerical simulation is performed to quantify private sectors’ relationship and behavioral strategies. The results indicate that private sectors’ cooperation strategies are affected by basis payoffs, social and environmental benefits, subsidies, cooperative incentives, transaction costs and the government punishment, and their strategies can be changed by controlling the initial cooperative probabilities and parameters. This work provides a decision-making approach for private sectors to determine the appropriate cooperation strategies when participating in a green energy PPP project.

Adaptive polyhedral meshing for approximate dynamic programming in control

This work proposes a new criterion for adaptive meshing in polyhedral partitions which interpolate a value function in Approximate Dynamic Programming (ADP) in optimal control problems. The criterion adds new points to a simplicial mesh, based on: a user-defined initial condition probability density function which determines ‘influential’ regions of the state space, uncertainty (variance) propagation, and temporal-difference error. A collection of lemmas justifies the algorithmic proposal. Comparative analysis with other options in literature highlights the advantages of our proposal. The developed methods are applied to simulation examples and an experimental robotic setup.

Application of reliability index in statistical model to assess durability of concrete made with plastic waste aggregates subjected to carbonation.

One of the feasible solutions for the solid waste management problem is to use recycled plastic waste as a replacement for natural aggregates in construction applications, which reduces pollution and protects natural resources from depletion. Corrosion of steel reinforcement due to carbonation is one of the important factors affecting the durability of reinforced concrete, which leads to a decrease in serviceability and safety of structures. This study aimed to compute the probability of corrosion initiation using the reliability index for concrete whose coarse aggregate was partially replaced with high impact polystyrene (HIPS). This study employed a statistical carbonation depth prediction model incorporating recycled aggregates which relate carbonation in concrete with 28-day compressive strength, cement content, aggregates' equivalent water absorption, and CO2 content in the atmosphere. A reliability index of 1.28, which infers the probability of corrosion initiation less than 10%, has been used for inference. Results showed that a slight increase in concrete cover for concrete with HIPS replacements was required to exhibit similar service life as that of conventional concrete.

Research on Evolutionary Model and Dynamic Analysis for Internet Public Opinion Spreading

Internet public opinion has developed rapidly in recent years, which has more influence on society. The relevant problems of Internet public opinion have become the hotspots of research. The complexity of Internet public opinion spreading brings difficulties to research and analysis. For the problems of Internet public opinion spreading, an evolutionary model of Internet public opinion spreading is built based on evolutionary game theory in this paper, considering three subjects including Internet media, Internet users, and government. Then, the evolutionary stable strategies of the Internet public opinion spreading system are studied. Finally, the influences of the stable strategy of the Internet public opinion spreading system are analyzed through simulation. Relevant conclusions are obtained. The results show that there are multiple possible stable strategies in the evolution of Internet public opinion. The different initial probabilities of the strategy lead to the different stable strategies of the evolutionary system. The stable strategy is influenced by some factors, such as the punished loss of Internet media, the gain of Internet users from government controlling, and the cost of government. These conclusions have a certain guiding significance to Internet public opinion management and control.