White spot syndrome virus (WSSV), the causative agent of white spot disease (WSD), is the most significant viral pathogen affecting farmed shrimp. As the culture model for whiteleg shrimp has evolved into a higher-intensity model, the need to study the influence of stocking density on disease progression in pond culture systems has been reinforced. Therefore, we assessed WSD progression by deriving a direct correlation between seasonal disease outbreak risk, stocking density, and viral shedding rate (WSSV genome copies/L/g) using three different stocking densities: high (210 shrimp/m2), medium (140 shrimp/m2), and low (70 shrimp/m2). In Experiment 1 (three stocking densities at 25 °C) and Experiment 2 (stocking density × temperature conditions), shrimp showed relatively high cumulative mortality within the temperature range of optimal WSSV replication (23–29 °C). Notably, the mortality trend, peak viral loads, and viral shedding of WSSV-infected shrimp occurred earlier under high-density conditions, regardless of temperature. Thereafter, this study established WSD risk scenarios based on water temperature conditions and confirmed a significant difference in mortality trends between vulnerable and less vulnerable water temperature scenarios under high- and low-density conditions. The vulnerable water temperature scenario included constant (25 °C), shifting-up (20 °C to 30 °C), and shifting-down (30 °C to 20 °C) conditions, whereas the less vulnerable water temperature scenario included constant 20 °C and 30 °C conditions. Based on mortality trends, the WSD risk scenarios revealed that the times to 50 % mortality for shrimp at high, medium, and low densities were 4, 5, and 6 days post-infection (dpi) in the vulnerable water temperature scenario, and 6, 7, and 9 dpi in the less vulnerable water temperature scenario. Viral shedding variability was evaluated based on the correlation between viral loads and viral shedding rate, and linear regression analysis revealed a significant positive correlation between viral shedding rates and viral loads in shrimp, regardless of WSD risk scenarios or stocking density conditions. Notably, a relatively enhanced viral shedding rate was observed at higher stocking densities (from low- to high-density conditions) and under vulnerable water temperature scenarios. This study suggests that increased stocking density and vulnerable water temperature scenarios could induce greater interactions among WSSV-infected shrimp. It also confirmed the potential role of risk scenarios, stocking density, and viral shedding in WSD progression, providing insights into the disease outbreak mechanisms on shrimp farms.