Influence Species Distributions Research Articles

Climate and soil explain contrasting intraspecific trait variability of widespread species over a large environmental gradient

Both climatic and edaphic conditions are currently undergoing significant changes on a global scale. Early studies have suggested that climate and soil together shape plant performance. However, establishing a precise theoretical framework to describe trait-environment relationships has proven challenging. Understanding and identifying the patterns and drivers of intraspecific trait variation is crucial for anticipating changes in plant distributions. This study aimed to examine the relative importance of various environmental drivers in explaining intraspecific trait variation for two widespread species, Sophora japonica and Robinia pseudoacacia, across a broad environmental scale spanning from the southeast to the northwest of China. Intraspecific variation in fourteen functional traits accounted for 23.4 % of S. japonica and 28.4 % of R. pseudoacacia, indicating that these species exhibit a degree of plasticity in response to changing environmental conditions. There were differences in the influence of climatic and edaphic factors on intraspecific trait variation. For both species, hydraulic trait variations were primarily driven by climate during the growth season and climatic seasonality. In comparison, soil chemical properties accounted for a substantial proportion of the variability in leaf economic traits. Our results show that S. japonica and R. pseudoacacia responded differently to variations in climatic factors. In contrast, the impact of soil factors on traits was more consistently observed between these two species. We conclude that soil conditions, like climate, are crucial factors in investigating geographic variation in functional traits and species distributions. Our analysis also highlights that species specificity must be considered when discussing plant adaptability to climate change. These findings provide valuable insights into how and to what extent climatic and edaphic factors influence species distributions by driving the intraspecific trait variability.

Modeling the ecological niche of rhamnus prinoides L. under climate change scenarios: a MaxEnt modeling approach

ABSTRACT Nowadays, the crucial issue in ecology is how changing climate influences species distributions and existence in a natural ecosystem. Changes in spatiotemporal environmental patterns lead to either expansions, contrasts, or shifts to comparable habitats. The aim of this study was to define the ecological niches, potential distributions and examine trends of changes in Rhamnus prinoides in response to climate change. A bioclimatic, topographic, and soil type dataset were used to analyze the current and future species distribution patterns. The model, with a high accuracy (AUC 0.887, TSS 0.6327), revealed that elevation and soil type are key factors influencing R. prinoides distribution. Under the current climatic conditions, the predicted total suitable habitat of R. prinoides was approximately 15.17% of Tigray. Future climate scenarios predict both expansion and contraction of these areas, particularly in the northwest, central, and southern zones. In addition, areas of new and lost habitat for R. prinoides species were found in all scenarios. Findings of this study concluded that, the distributional range of R. prinoides was found to be primarily associated with altitude and soil type. Moreover, the majority of Tigray’s highlands will continue suitable potential areas for R. prinoides cultivation in the future.

Temperature and Precipitation Explain Bee Diversity on Flowers Along an Elevation Gradient in the Mexican Transition Zone

Although ecologists have identified the key factors influencing species distribution along elevation gradients, each mountain’s distinct characteristics, including its geology and biotic colonization processes, are often overlooked. The uniqueness of each mountain ecosystem implies that species distribution and the factors affecting them may vary across regions and taxonomic groups. The Mexican Transition Zone (MTZ) in central Mexico is a mountainous region of significant ecological and evolutionary importance, shaped by distinct biotic colonization and distribution patterns across its elevation gradient. However, most research in this region has focused on specific taxa, neglecting the vast diversity within the MTZ. In this study, we investigated the variations in flower-visiting bee diversity along an elevation gradient within the MTZ (10 sampling sites distributed from 4 to 3425 m a.s.l..), focusing on understanding the environmental factors influencing their distribution. Our findings reveal a declining bee diversity with increasing elevation, primarily driven by decreasing temperatures. However, when considering bee abundance, we identified precipitation as the predominant factor influencing bee diversity. Therefore, water and resource availability are critical in shaping bee diversity in this region. Furthermore, as elevation increased, we observed distinct and unique bee communities, highlighting the rarity and uniqueness of highland bee species as integral components of mountain ecosystems.

Assessment of the dark diversity's ability to predict the absence of Zygoptera (Odonata) species sensitive to anthropogenic disturbance in human-altered Amazonian ecosystems.

Estimates of dark diversity, species that belong to a given species pool but are not present locally, can help to understand how environmental conditions influence species distribution. However, it remains uncertain whether dark diversity can predict the absence of indicator species in preserved environments after environmental changes. We explored the sensitivity of dark diversity (the set of species absent from a particular area), in detecting the absence of Zygoptera (Odonata) indicative of preserved forest environments in altered habitats, and the influence of sample coverage on the detected patterns. We sampled 98 streams in the Amazon region, where the dark diversity of Zygoptera was estimated based on probabilistic species co-occurrence patterns using the Beals index, encompassing 16 species in the Santarém/Belterra region and 23 species in the Paragominas region. The mean total richness of observed Zygoptera species in Paragominas, 42.7 species, and Santarém/Belterra, 25.93 species, was higher than the estimated mean dark diversity for the two study sites, which were 12.32 and 12.20 species, respectively. The dark diversity was not effective in detecting the absence of forest-indicator Zygoptera in human-altered streams and exhibited a positive relationship between Zygoptera dark diversity and species common to different environments concerning environmental integrity only in Paragominas, but not in Santarém. We found that there is a possibility that observed values of dark diversity may occasionally be subject to sampling coverage biases. In this regard, we suggest considering sampling coverage alongside field-collected biological datasets to assess whether it is related to dark diversity.

Evolutionary shifts in the thermal biology of a subterranean mammal: the effect of habitat aridity.

Subterranean mammals representing a single subspecies occurring along an aridity gradient provide an appropriate model for investigating adaptive variation in thermal physiology with varying levels of precipitation and air temperature. This study examined the thermal physiological adaptations of common mole-rats (Cryptomys hottentotus hottentotus) across five populations along an aridity gradient, challenging the expectation that increased aridity would lead to reduced metabolic rate, lower body temperatures and broader thermoneutral zones. No significant, consistent differences in metabolic rate, body temperature or thermal conductance were observed between populations, suggesting uniform thermoregulatory mechanisms across habitats. Instead, behavioural strategies such as huddling and torpor may play a more prominent role than physiological adaptations in managing temperature regulation and water balance. The study also observed osmoregulatory differences, with populations employing distinct behavioural cooling strategies in response to water availability. These results underscore the need for further research into the responses of subterranean species to climate change, particularly in understanding how increasing global temperatures and aridification might influence species distribution if they lack the physiological capacity to adapt to future climatic conditions.

Potential distribution of Detarium microcarpum under different climate change scenarios in Burkina Faso

Climate change and human activities are major drivers influencing species distribution, posing significant challenges for woody species that provide essential ecosystem goods and services. Therefore, a thorough understanding of climate impacts on species distribution is crucial for more effective management. This study aims to assess the effect of climate change on the current and future distribution of Detarium microcarpum. This study was conducted in Burkina Faso. The maximum entropy (MaxEnt) approach was used to simulate the current and future distributions of the species. The future distribution of the species was assessed through four global climate models: HadGEM3-GC3.1-LL, ACCESS-CM2, CNRM-CM6-1 and MIROC6 under two Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) scenarios, SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5 at the horizons 2061–2080 and 2081–2100. The area under the curve (AUC ˃ 0.80) and True Skill Statistic (TSS=0.7) revealed a high level of prediction for the current and future scenarios. The results showed that the mean temperature of the Wettest Quarter (bio8) and Isothermality (bio3) were the most important environmental variables which affect D. microcarpum distribution. The results show that the current suitability area for the species covers 65.6 % of the country area with respectively high suitability (36.73 %) and low suitability (29.16 %). Based on the outcomes of the prediction, the high suitable areas for D. microcarpum conservation will decrease on average by 5,92 % of their current area under future climate change, regardless of the scenario and model used, except for the MIROC6 model under the SSP5-8.5 scenario, which will increase its current area from 0.56 % to 1.7 %. The result of this study underscores the significant effect of the future climate on the suitable area of D. microcarpum. Specific actions should be taken to ensure the suitable conservation of this valuable multipurpose species.

Historical biogeography and the evolution of habitat preference in the North American camel spider family, Eremobatidae (Arachnida:Solifugae)

Abiotic variables can influence species distributions, often restricting taxa to an acquired climatic signature or conversely, related species are conserved in the same ecological space over millions of years. An investigation into how abiotic change has shaped geographic distributions of taxa may be key to understanding diversification of lineages, and in the absence of reliable morphological characteristics, such information may support taxonomic units at multiple scales.Here, we examine the historical biogeography and patterns of habitat preference within the North American solifuge family, Eremobatidae. A previous study demonstrated that a major taxonomic revision of Eremobatidae is warranted, however recent studies demonstrate high levels of morphological convergence within the group, thus a re-classification of generic boundaries using additional information must be prioritized before we can formally begin solid revisionary efforts. In this study, we aimed to reconstruct a well-resolved phylogenetic hypothesis of Eremobatidae by filtering UCE loci based on informativeness, by mitigating the effect of cogenic UCE on phylogenetic estimation, and by supplementing our curated UCE loci with mitochondrial information. Using our preferred topology, in conjunction with published estimated divergence dates for Eremobatidae, we inferred a time-calibrated phylogenetic hypothesis to inform the historical biogeography and patterns of habitat preference. The two major habitat types that were observed for Eremobatidae were warm deserts for early diverging taxa and a subsequent evolution to cold deserts and Mediterranean California ecoregions for later diverging taxa. Eremobatid niche space, determined by temperature and precipitation, has been conserved for at least 25 million years in North America, supporting a warm desert origin, and thus supporting high species richness in the Sonoran and Mexican Plateau. Overall, our study provides support for new generic level designations within Eremobatidae.

Towards optimizing conservation planning: A performance evaluation of modeling techniques for predicting Mediterranean native species distribution

Understanding the intricate relationships between environmental conditions and key variables influencing species distribution is critical for ecology and conservation, especially in the face of escalating environmental challenges intensified by climate change. Species Distribution Models (SDMs) are valuable tools for predicting current and future habitat suitability, aiding in conservation planning. This study specifically sought to evaluate the predictive performance of different modeling techniques in determining the geographical distribution of three Mediterranean native species with different ecological flexibility in the western Mediterranean coastal land of Egypt namely Thymelaea hirsuta (L.) Endl., Ononis vaginalis Vahl, and Limoniastrum monopetalum (L.) Boiss. An ensemble model incorporating three modeling algorithms -the generalized linear model, boosted regression trees, and random forests- was juxtaposed against the Maxent non-parametric machine-learning modeling technique. The models integrated diverse variables, encompassing climatic, edaphic, habitat, and topographic factors. The results unveiled a high degree of similarity and agreement between the Maxent and ensemble models, both exhibiting outstanding fits and performance metrics. The ensemble model demonstrated remarkable accuracy across various measures evaluating model performance. However, Maxent showcased a comparatively strong performance, particularly in identifying critical areas for the distribution of the studied Mediterranean species. These findings emphasize the importance of employing a suite of modeling techniques to refine conservation planning and management strategies. At the local scale, the outcomes can guide targeted actions such as habitat restoration and species monitoring programs. Regionally, and globally it can inform policy development and cross-border conservation initiatives that address shared environmental challenges and contribute to frameworks for studies of similar ecosystems worldwide. Such a comprehensive approach ensures more effective safeguarding of Mediterranean native species under changing environmental conditions.

Functional and phylogenetic structure of mammals along elevational gradients in the Central and East Himalayas

BackgroundMountain ecosystems are critical hotspots of global biodiversity, yet the dynamics of community assembly along their elevational gradients are not well understood. This gap is primarily due to the complexity of environmental and biotic interactions that influence species distribution and community structure. Although extensive research has been conducted on certain taxa, such as small mammals and bats, comprehensive studies encompassing entire mammal assemblages are lacking. Our research aims to bridge this gap by examining the taxonomic, phylogenetic, and functional diversity, as well as the assemblage structures of mammal communities across elevational gradients in the Central and East Himalayas, exploring how diverse ecological and evolutionary processes impact community assembly.MethodsWe analyzed mammal elevational diversity patterns using species richness, functional diversity (FD), and phylogenetic diversity (PD). We compared the observed values of community structure, such as mean pairwise phylogenetic distance (MPD) and mean pairwise functional distance (MFD), with null-model corrected effect sizes to identify patterns and processes of community assembly. Using structural equation modeling and hierarchical partitioning, we investigated the relationships between climate, productivity, and various facets of diversity, describing the organization of each component across different elevations.ResultsTaxonomic, functional, and phylogenetic diversity generally decreased with elevation but showed varied patterns such as mid-elevation peaks, low-elevation plateaus, or monotonic declines across different regions. Richness-controlled functional diversity increased towards mid-low elevations and decreased at higher elevations in both regions, whereas richness-controlled phylogenetic diversity lacked consistent patterns. Phylogenetic structures tended to cluster from mid to high elevations, indicating closer relationships than those observed in random communities, likely due to significant environmental turnover near tree lines. Functional structure showed greater clustering at high elevations and increased over-dispersion at lower elevations, suggesting that species are more functionally similar than expected at higher elevations and more diverse at lower elevations. Our results revealed that environmental factors, evolutionary histories, and trait-driven ecological processes collectively shape species richness along these gradients.ConclusionsOur results showed incongruent community structures across phylogenetic and functional diversity. Generally, functional traits are closely linked to environmental conditions, reducing the chance of observing traits that are misaligned with their surroundings. Species with similar ecological roles or distinct evolutionary lineages often show convergent adaptations to highland environments. Additionally, our findings emphasize that community assembly varies with the biogeography and diversification history of individual mountain ranges, complicating the development of a generalized theory. Using multiple measures is important for accurate community structure assessments and effective conservation planning, as variable elevational patterns exist across different diversity dimensions.

Mapping the Future: Revealing Habitat Preferences and Patterns of the Endangered Chilean Dolphin in Seno Skyring, Patagonia.

Species distribution modeling helps understand how environmental factors influence species distribution, creating profiles to predict presence in unexplored areas and assess ecological impacts. This study examined the habitat use and population ecology of the Chilean dolphin in Seno Skyring, Chilean Patagonia. We used three models-random forest (RF), generalized linear model (GLM), and artificial neural network (ANN)-to predict dolphin distribution based on environmental and biotic data like water temperature, salinity, and fish farm density. Our research has determined that the RF model is the most precise tool for predicting the habitat preferences of Chilean dolphins. The results indicate that these dolphins are primarily located within six kilometers of the coast, strongly correlating with areas featuring numerous fish farms, sheltered waters close to the shore with river inputs, and shallow productive zones. This suggests a potential association between dolphin presence and fish-farming activities. These findings can guide targeted conservation measures, such as regulating fish-farming practices and protecting vital coastal areas to improve the survival prospects of the Chilean dolphin. Given the extensive fish-farming industry in Chile, this research highlights the need for greater knowledge and comprehensive conservation efforts to ensure the species' long-term survival. By understanding and mitigating the impacts of fish farming and other human activities, we can better protect the habitat and well-being of Chilean dolphins.

Ecological trade-offs drive phenotypic and genetic differentiation of Arabidopsis thaliana in Europe

Plant diversity is shaped by trade-offs between traits related to competitive ability, propagule dispersal, and stress resistance. However, we still lack a clear understanding of how these trade-offs influence species distribution and population dynamics. In Arabidopsis thaliana, recent genetic analyses revealed a group of cosmopolitan genotypes that successfully recolonized Europe from its center after the last glaciation, excluding older (relict) lineages from the distribution except for their north and south margins. Here, we tested the hypothesis that cosmopolitans expanded due to higher colonization ability, while relicts persisted at the margins due to higher tolerance to competition and/or stress. We compared the phenotypic and genetic differentiation between 71 European genotypes originating from the center, and the south and north margins. We showed that a trade-off between plant fecundity and seed mass shapes the differentiation of A. thaliana in Europe, suggesting that the success of the cosmopolitan groups could be explained by their high dispersal ability. However, at both north and south margins, we found evidence of selection for alleles conferring low dispersal but highly competitive and stress-resistance abilities. This study sheds light on the role of ecological trade-offs as evolutionary drivers of the distribution and dynamics of plant populations.

The Relationship between Grinnellian and Eltonian Niche Characteristics and Passerine Distribution across a Latitudinal Gradient

The degree to which Grinnellian and Eltonian niche characteristics influence species distribution may depend on latitude. Tropical regions are environmentally stable and resource-rich, whereas temperate regions are comparatively less environmentally stable (e.g., environmental filtering). Moreover, phylogenetic niche conservatism could influence distributions by inhibiting the ability for species to colonize environmentally different locations. Herein, we examine relationships between niche characteristics, passerine distributions, and phylogenetic niche conservatism across the latitudinal gradient. We used environmental and climatic variables to characterize Grinnellian niches and diets to characterize Eltonian niches. We conducted variation partitioning with retained components from ordination methods to evaluate the degree of association of Grinnellian and Eltonian niche characteristics with passerine distribution across latitudes. We examined the relationship between phylogenetic signal and niche characteristics with a phylogenetic regression. Passerine distributions were more related to environmental gradients than resources across latitudes. While niche conservatism was prevalent in Eltonian niche characteristics, phylogeny was related to Grinnellian niche characteristics in only 46% of biomes. There was no latitudinal gradient in phylogenetic niche conservatism or the degree to which Eltonian and Grinnellian niche characteristics relate to passerine distribution. Niche conservatism, albeit weak, was present for Grinnellian niche characteristics, thus potentially influencing the expansion of passerine distributions into the northern hemisphere.

Gaps and opportunities in modelling human influence on species distributions in the Anthropocene

Understanding species distributions is a global priority for mitigating environmental pressures from human activities. Ample studies have identified key environmental (climate and habitat) predictors and the spatial scales at which they influence species distributions. However, regarding human influence, such understandings are largely lacking. Here, to advance knowledge concerning human influence on species distributions, we systematically reviewed species distribution modelling (SDM) articles and assessed current modelling efforts. We searched 12,854 articles and found only 1,429 articles using human predictors within SDMs. Collectively, these studies of >58,000 species used 2,307 unique human predictors, suggesting that in contrast to environmental predictors, there is no ‘rule of thumb’ for human predictor selection in SDMs. The number of human predictors used across studies also varied (usually one to four per study). Moreover, nearly half the articles projecting to future climates held human predictors constant over time, risking false optimism about the effects of human activities compared with climate change. Advances in using human predictors in SDMs are paramount for accurately informing and advancing policy, conservation, management and ecology. We show considerable gaps in including human predictors to understand current and future species distributions in the Anthropocene, opening opportunities for new inquiries. We pose 15 questions to advance ecological theory, methods and real-world applications.

Habitat preferences of Phoebetria albatrosses in sympatry and allopatry

AbstractAimCompetition is often proposed to drive niche segregation along multiple axes in speciose communities. Understanding spatial partitioning of foraging areas is particularly important in species that are constrained to a central place. We present a natural experiment examining variation in habitat preferences of congeneric Southern Ocean predators in sympatry and allopatry. Our aim was to ascertain consistency of habitat preferences within species, and to test whether preferences changed in the presence of the congener.LocationSouthern Hemisphere.TaxonMultiple colonies of both species within the genus Phoebetria (sooty albatrosses).MethodsThe two Phoebetria albatrosses breed on islands located from ~37–55°S – sooty albatrosses (P. fusca) in the north and light‐mantled albatrosses (P. palpebrata) in the south – with sympatric overlap at locations ~46–49°S. We analysed GPS and PTT tracks from 87 individuals and multiple remotely sensed environmental variables using GAMs, to determine and compare the key factors influencing habitat preference for each species at each breeding colony.ResultsWhile foraging habitat preferences are consistent in light‐mantled albatrosses, there is divergence of preferences in sooty albatrosses depending on whether they are in sympatry with their congener or in allopatry.Main ConclusionsThis study represents the most comprehensive work on this genus to date and highlights how habitat preferences and behavioural plasticity may influence species distributions under different competitive conditions.

Spatiotemporal Mechanisms of the Coexistence of Reintroduced Scimitar-Horned Oryx and Native Dorcas Gazelle in Sidi Toui National Park, Tunisia.

Examining the distribution patterns and spatiotemporal niche overlap of sympatric species is crucial for understanding core concepts in community ecology and for the effective management of multi-species habitats within shared landscapes. Using data from 26 camera-traps, recorded over two years (December 2020-November 2022), in Sidi Toui National Park (STNP), Tunisia, we investigate habitat use and activity patterns of the scimitar-horned oryx (n = 1865 captures) and dorcas gazelle (n = 1208 captures). Using information theory and multi-model inference methods, along with the Pianka index, we evaluated the habitat characteristics influencing species distribution and their spatial niche overlap. To delineate daily activity patterns, we applied kernel density estimation. Our findings indicate minimal spatial overlap and distinct environmental factors determining suitable habitats for each species. Furthermore, we found significant temporal niche overlaps, indicative of synchrony in daily activity patterns, with both species showing peak activity at dawn and dusk. Our results indicated that oryx and gazelle differ in at least one dimension of their ecological niche at the current density levels, which contributes to their long-term and stable coexistence in STNP.

Sea ice influence on male polar bear survival in Hudson Bay

Environmental variability and seasonality of resources influence species distribution and demographic parameters such as survival. We quantified the spatiotemporal dynamics of sea ice that remains in Hudson Bay during break-up (remnant ice) and assessed relationships with apparent survival for three age classes of male polar bears ( Ursus maritimus Phipps, 1774): subadult (1–4 years), prime age (5–19 years), and senescent (≥20 years) captured in Western Hudson Bay in 1980–2019. Remnant ice distribution varied annually, and we identified ice-related covariates that were correlated with detection probabilities and male apparent survival. Apparent survival declined by 10% for prime age males during the earliest retreat dates within Hudson Bay. Apparent survival for senescent bears declined during earlier sea ice retreat within western Hudson Bay. Subadult apparent survival was time constant and not significantly influenced by sea ice; however, detection probability was higher when remnant ice occurred in the west compared to the eastern half of Hudson Bay. Our results suggest that spatiotemporal sea dynamics at varying spatial scales affected males based on age class, had important impacts on estimating apparent survival, and has implications for assessing population status.

Environmental factors differentially influence species distributions across tree size classes in a dry evergreen forest in Sakaerat Biosphere Reserve, northeastern Thailand

ABSTRACT Plant communities in tropical forests are influenced by multiple environmental variables. For trees, soil and topographic characteristics are key factors that impact the establishment of many species. In this study, the impacts of soil properties and topography on forest structure, species composition, α- and β-diversity, and tree species distribution across size classes were investigated in a dry evergreen forest (DEF) in the Sakaerat Biosphere Reserve, northeastern Thailand. Within a 16 ha permanent plot, all trees with a diameter at breast height (DBH) ≥ 1 cm were recorded. Tree species distributions mostly respected gradients of plot elevation and soil nutrient, including available P; these variables were strongly associated for most size classes. Structural attributes (basal area and tree density) of trees with a DBH of 5–10 cm were highly sensitive to these variables. For trees with a DBH of 2–5 cm, α-diversity was negatively associated with available P while β-diversity was associated with topography and available P. These findings demonstrate the strong influence of topographic and edaphic variables in shaping the DEF. Sensitivity to these variables, particularly elevation and increases in available P, increased with increasing tree size among size classes, as small trees were less sensitive than were larger trees. Our study provides an example of how different environments affect many of the features of tropical forest structure, such as tree size class and species composition.

Effects of dispersal and temperature variability on phytoplankton realized temperature niches.

Phytoplankton species exhibit fundamental temperature niches that drive observed species distributions linked to realized temperature niches. A recent analysis of field observations of Prochlorococcus showed that for all ecotypes, the realized niche was, on average, colder and wider than the fundamental niche. Using a simple trait-based metacommunity model that resolves fundamental temperature niches for a range of competing phytoplankton, we ask how dispersal and local temperature variability influence species distributions and diversity, and whether these processes help explain the observed discrepancies between fundamental and realized niches for Prochlorococcus. We find that, independently, both dispersal and temperature variability increase realized temperature niche widths and local diversity. The combined effects result in high diversity and realized temperature niches that are consistently wider than fundamental temperature niches. These results have broad implications for understanding the drivers of phytoplankton biogeography as well as for refining species distribution models used to project how climate change impacts phytoplankton distributions.

Contribution of soil seed banks to vegetation resilience in coastal freshwater wetlands of subtropical Australia

AbstractQuestionsWhat role do soil seed banks play in the resilience of coastal freshwater wetland vegetation communities? How might soil seed bank composition and similarity to standing vegetation drive changes in vegetation expression, particularly given projected changes in climate?LocationSixty wooded coastal freshwater wetlands in southeast Queensland, Australia.MethodsWe surveyed standing vegetation and investigated soil seed bank composition through an 8‐month‐long emergence experiment.ResultsSoil seed bank assemblages were dominated by forb and sedge species (23% exotic), but composition varied throughout the study region. Spatial (north–south) and land‐use (urban–rural) gradients explained some variation in soil seed bank composition. Soil moisture and groundwater dependence also influenced species distributions, particularly for freshwater wetland species. The similarity of soil seed banks to standing vegetation was low. Species present in both extant and soil seed bank assemblages were commonly native wetland taxa, including one salt marsh species (Juncus kraussii).ConclusionsProjected climatic changes will likely drive changes in coastal freshwater wetland vegetation communities through increases in the frequency and intensity of disturbances (e.g., storm surge). Our results suggest that regeneration from soil seed banks could promote four potential scenarios: (1) expansion of weed communities, (2) expansion of salt marsh communities, (3) maintenance and expansion of wetland/terrestrial species, and (4) transformation to an unvegetated open water zone because of reduced regeneration success under changing conditions. These diverse vegetation futures highlight the vulnerability of wooded coastal freshwater wetlands and the need for research and management interventions to maintain their biodiversity and ecosystem services.

Incorporating eco-evolutionary information into species distribution models provides comprehensive predictions of species range shifts under climate change

As climate changes increasingly influence species distributions, ecosystem functions, and biodiversity, the urgency to understand how species' ranges shift under those changes is great. Species distribution models (SDMs) are vital approaches that can predict species distributions under changing climates. However, SDMs based on the species' current occurrences may underestimate the species' climatic tolerances. Integrating species' realized niches at different periods, also known as multi-temporal calibration, can provide an estimation closer to its fundamental niche. Based on this, we further proposed an integrated framework that combines eco-evolutionary data and SDMs (phylogenetically-informed SDMs) to provide comprehensive predictions of species range shifts under climate change. To evaluate our approach's performance, we applied it to a group of related species, the Chrysanthemum zawadskii species complex (Anthemidae, Asteracee). First, we investigated the niche differentiation between species and intraspecific lineages of the complex and estimated their rates of niche evolution. Next, using both standard SDMs and our phylogenetically-informed SDMs, we generated predictions of suitability areas for all species and lineages and compared the results. Finally, we reconstructed the historical range dynamics for the species of this complex. Our results showed that the species and intraspecific lineages of the complex had varying degrees of niche differentiation and different rates of niche evolution. Lineage-level SDMs can provide more realistic predictions for species with intraspecific differentiation than species-level models can. The phylogenetically-informed SDMs provided more complete environmental envelopes and predicted broader potential distributions for all species than the standard SDMs did. Range dynamics varied among the species that have different rates of niche evolution. Our framework integrating eco-evolutionary data and SDMs contributes to a better understanding of the species' responses to climate change and can help to make more targeted conservation efforts for the target species under climate change, particularly for rare species.