Potential distribution of Detarium microcarpum under different climate change scenarios in Burkina Faso

Abstract

Climate change and human activities are major drivers influencing species distribution, posing significant challenges for woody species that provide essential ecosystem goods and services. Therefore, a thorough understanding of climate impacts on species distribution is crucial for more effective management. This study aims to assess the effect of climate change on the current and future distribution of Detarium microcarpum. This study was conducted in Burkina Faso. The maximum entropy (MaxEnt) approach was used to simulate the current and future distributions of the species. The future distribution of the species was assessed through four global climate models: HadGEM3-GC3.1-LL, ACCESS-CM2, CNRM-CM6-1 and MIROC6 under two Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) scenarios, SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5 at the horizons 2061–2080 and 2081–2100. The area under the curve (AUC ˃ 0.80) and True Skill Statistic (TSS=0.7) revealed a high level of prediction for the current and future scenarios. The results showed that the mean temperature of the Wettest Quarter (bio8) and Isothermality (bio3) were the most important environmental variables which affect D. microcarpum distribution. The results show that the current suitability area for the species covers 65.6 % of the country area with respectively high suitability (36.73 %) and low suitability (29.16 %). Based on the outcomes of the prediction, the high suitable areas for D. microcarpum conservation will decrease on average by 5,92 % of their current area under future climate change, regardless of the scenario and model used, except for the MIROC6 model under the SSP5-8.5 scenario, which will increase its current area from 0.56 % to 1.7 %. The result of this study underscores the significant effect of the future climate on the suitable area of D. microcarpum. Specific actions should be taken to ensure the suitable conservation of this valuable multipurpose species.