Influence Of Future Climate Change Research Articles

The Influence of ENSO Diversity on Future Atlantic Tropical Cyclone Activity

Abstract El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) influences seasonal Atlantic tropical cyclone (TC) activity by impacting environmental conditions important for TC genesis. However, the influence of future climate change on the teleconnection between ENSO and Atlantic TCs is uncertain, as climate change is expected to impact both ENSO and the mean climate state. We used the Weather Research and Forecasting Model on a tropical channel domain to simulate 5-member ensembles of Atlantic TC seasons in historical and future climates under different ENSO conditions. Experiments were forced with idealized sea surface temperature configurations based on the Community Earth System Model (CESM) Large Ensemble representing: a monthly varying climatology, eastern Pacific El Niño, central Pacific El Niño, and La Niña. The historical simulations produced fewer Atlantic TCs during eastern Pacific El Niño compared to central Pacific El Niño, consistent with observations and other modeling studies. For each ENSO state, the future simulations produced a similar teleconnection with Atlantic TCs as in the historical simulations. Specifically, La Niña continues to enhance Atlantic TC activity, and El Niño continues to suppress Atlantic TCs, with greater suppression during eastern Pacific El Niño compared to central Pacific El Niño. In addition, we found a decrease in the Atlantic TC frequency in the future relative to historical regardless of ENSO state, which was associated with a future increase in northern tropical Atlantic vertical wind shear and a future decrease in the zonal tropical Pacific sea surface temperature (SST) gradient, corresponding to a more El Niño–like mean climate state. Our results indicate that ENSO will remain useful for seasonal Atlantic TC prediction in the future.

Sediment temperature characteristics and their relation to distribution patterns of two sentinel crab species in intertidal flats in western Japan

In the context of global climate change, monitoring focused on temperature and benthic animals in intertidal flats and the development of metrics to assess climate change and ecosystem responses are essential for a sustainable society. However, few studies have assessed the relationship between intertidal sediment temperature and the distribution of benthic animals. To address this gap, in the present study, intertidal sediment temperatures were observed in 12 intertidal flats in 11 survey areas over 335 days, from October 2, 2019, to August 31, 2020, using water temperature data loggers. The characteristics of intertidal sediment temperatures were variable among the survey areas, and a correlation analysis suggested that such characteristics are possibly influenced by various spatial-scale factors, such as geographical, basin, and habitat scales. Furthermore, two sentinel crab species, Macrophthalmus japonicus and Macrophthalmus banzai were collected, and the number of wintering individuals of each species was estimated based on their carapace width to analyze the changes in abundances of the two species in each survey area. The results show that the number of days with daily minimum temperature ≥ 19 °C was the factor that influenced the abundance rate, suggesting that M. japonicus and M. banzai populations may decrease and increase, respectively, according to future climate change in Japan. Our findings emphasize the importance of long-term monitoring of sediment temperatures and benthic animals in intertidal flats to evaluate the influence of future climate change.

Thermal stability of permafrost under U-shaped crushed rock embankment of the Qinghai‒Tibet Railway

The U-shaped crushed rock embankment (UCRE), of which widely utilized in the permafrost regions along the Qinghai‒Tibet Railway, has the capability to rapidly reduce the ground temperature of the underlying permafrost. However, there remains uncertainty regarding the adaptation of UCRE to climate change and its long-term cooling trend. This study focuses on nine UCRE monitoring sites along the Qinghai‒Tibet Railway to analyze the dynamic variations of the ground temperature underlying permafrost from 2006 to 2020. The efficiency of UCRE in stabilizing permafrost temperature in different permafrost zones is evaluated by considering the permafrost table, ground temperature, and MAGT, as well as the temperature difference between the top and bottom of the crushed rock layer and the ground temperature variation index (GTVI). The results show that UCRE is suitable for application in extremely unstable warm permafrost regions where the MAGT is higher than −0.5 °C. Moreover, UCRE effectively diminishes the disparity in permafrost thermal stability between the sunny and shaded shoulders of the embankment. The short-term and long-term effect of cooling permafrost is experiencing a change related with permafrost stability. Notably, in stable cold permafrost regions with MAGT lower than −1.5 °C, the long-term cooling effect of UCRE on permafrost seems to gradually diminishes, but UCRE continues to fulfill the role of stabilizing the underlying permafrost thermal state over the long-term. These results show that UCRE can quickly restore and stabilize the thermal state of permafrost in the early stages of construction, and adapt to the influence of future climate change. The findings provide important guidance for understanding the variations of permafrost thermal stability beneath the embankment in permafrost regions, as well as for improving the embankment stability and operational safety of the Qinghai‒Tibet Railway.

Simulated hydrological effects of grooming and snowmaking in a ski resort on the local water balance

Abstract. The presence of a ski resort modifies the snow cover at the local scale, due to snow management practices on ski pistes, especially grooming and snowmaking. Snow management exerts 2-fold effects on the local hydrological cycle, through (i) abstraction and transfer of water used for snowmaking, and (ii) changes in water runoff due to added snow mass through snowmaking and/or delayed melting of the snowpack due to snow grooming. This induces a local pressure on water resources, which has seldom been addressed in scientific studies hitherto. Here we introduce a method to compute the hydrological effects of snow management on ski pistes and we apply and illustrate its results for the case study of the La Plagne ski resort in the Northern French Alps. The approach mainly relies on snow cover modelling using the Crocus snow cover driven by SAFRAN reanalysis and climate projections. Model results are evaluated against in-situ hydrological observations and show that the modelling approach, although very simplified for many hydrological processes, provides relevant information and insights in terms of the influence of snow-related processes on water resources. Our study shows a visible impact of grooming, virtually eliminating snowmelt in winter, thus delaying the onset of snowmelt. This results is a lower snowmelt flux during the wintertime, low flow period, on the order of −10 % to −20 %, compensated by higher amounts when snow melts. While about 10 % of the water used for snowmaking is estimated to be lost by evaporation through the ice formation process from the liquid water droplets, we find that, in the case studied, the annual scale alteration of water resources is limited and estimated to be on the order of 1 % to 2 %. This is due to the fact that the amount of water used for snowmaking on ski pistes represents a fraction of 10 % to 20 % of total annual precipitation, that ski pistes cover typically 10 % of the surface area of catchments within which ski resorts are located, and that snowmaking equipment covers, in the case of La Plagne, 40 % of the surface area of ski pistes. Therefore, in this case, snowmaking mainly leads to a moderate shift in snow cover formation and snowmelt processes and plays, for example, a smaller role than the influence of future climate change on mountain hydrology. This study provides an initial overview of the influence of grooming and snowmaking on river flows in a mountain catchment, which can inform future studies on water management and climate change adaptation in areas with ski tourism facilities. This study does not discuss long-term sustainability challenges of ski tourism and other aspects of the local environmental impacts (landscape, biodiversity) of snow management, such as the construction and use of mountain water reservoirs and other earthworks in ski resorts.

Study on the response and prediction of SDGs based on different climate change scenarios: The case of the urban agglomeration in central Yunnan

Climate change has become one of the biggest challenges facing the world, which will affect the process of sustainable development in all aspects such as economy, society, environment, etc., and the integration of climate change into the sustainable development management strategy will help to realize the process of SDGs indicators. However, there is a lack of quantitative research on the correlation between climate variables and sustainable development, especially from the perspective of climate change. Therefore, the experiment systematically proposes a framework for ecosystem service-based sustainable development assessment in the context of climate change, and tries to explore the response relationship between climate variables and sustainable development goals. The experiment takes the central Yunnan urban agglomeration as the study area, and based on the climate data of CMIP6, adopts the PLUS model and the InVEST model, predicts the spatial distribution of ESs and calculates the indicators of future SDGs, and explores the response of the climate to the indicators of SDGs by using the Spearman's correlation analysis. The experimental results showed that both the overall ESs and SDGs metrics declined under the influence of future climate change. Through the response analysis, among the eight climate indicators, evapotranspiration, dryness, barometric pressure, and temperature showed negative impacts in the study go, while precipitation, relative humidity, wind speed, and solar radiation promoted sustainable progress in the study area. However, under the influence of future climate change, the positive indicators may translate into negative impacts. There is a strong correlation between climate change and sustainable development, and the results of this experiment can provide a scientific reference for the sustainable development of similar regions in order to minimize the negative impacts of climate change in the future.

The possible impact of human activity and climate change on the potential suitable habitats of Taxus wallichianavar.mairei (Taxaceae) evaluated by ensemble modeling techniques

In the current work, we examined the possible changes in potential suitable habitats of Taxus wallichiana var. mairei (Taxaceae) under the influence of human activity and climate change using ensemble modeling techniques. T. wallichiana var. mairei is an endangered subtropical coniferous evergreen tree and is often used in medical applications. It is mainly distributed in southern China and has experienced several degenerations due to human activity in recent decades. Its growth is also very sensitive to climate change. The area of its highly suitable habitat under current climate conditions was approximately 2.31 × 106 km2, as estimated by our ensemble models, accounting for 81.85% of its total suitable habitat. The ensemble model results showed that the mean diurnal range (bio2) was the most critical environment variable affecting the performance of the ensemble models. Human activity had an overall negative influence on the suitable habitats of T. wallichiana var. mairei under current climate conditions. Under the influence of future climate change, the ensemble model predicted that the highly suitable habitat would convert to low- to medium-suitability or be lost, with the predicted loss of highly suitable habitat at the end of this century ranging from 30.40% to 96.55%. The predicted changes were more intense with increases in the severity of global warming. In addition, the ensemble model also predicted a shift in the distribution of total suitable habitats toward higher elevations. The results of this study should provide information for conservation purposes.

Impact of Climate Change on Summer Ozone in China

Meteorological conditions have important impacts on surface ozone (O3) formation. To evaluate the influence of future climate change on O3 concentrations in different regions of China, this study employed the climate data from the community earth system model provided by the CMIP5 under the RCP4.5, RCP6.0, and RCP8.5 scenarios to generate the initial and boundary conditions for the WRF model. Then, the dynamic downscaling WRF results were fed into a CMAQ model as meteorological fields with fixed emission data. Two 10-year periods (2006-2015 and 2046-2055) were selected in this study to discuss the impacts of climate change on O3. The results showed that climate change increased boundary layer height, mean temperature, and heatwave days in China during summer. Relative humidity decreased and wind speed near the surface showed no obvious change in the future. O3 concentration showed an increasing trend in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei, Sichuan Basin, and South China. The extreme value of O3 maximum daily 8-hour moving average (MDA8) showed an increasing trend, following the order of RCP8.5 (0.7 μg·m-3)>RCP6.0 (0.3 μg·m-3)>RCP4.5 (0.2 μg·m-3). The number of days exceeding the standard for summer O3 had a similar spatial distribution with the heatwave days in China. The increase in heatwave days led to the increase in O3 extreme pollution events, and the possibility of a long-lasting O3 pollution event will increase in China in the future.

Habitat suitability modeling of Acropora spp. distribution in Coral Triangle area of Maluku Waters, Indonesia under influence of future climate change and coastal pollution

Habitat suitability modeling of Acropora spp. distribution in Coral Triangle area of Maluku Waters, Indonesia under influence of future climate change and coastal pollution

The Future Climate under Different CO2 Emission Scenarios Significantly Influences the Potential Distribution of Achnatherum inebrians in China

The threat posed by poisonous weeds to grassland ecosystems may be exacerbated by climate change mainly driven by carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions. Achnatherum inebrians is a common and poisonous grassland weed that is seriously endangering the sustainable development of prairie animal husbandry in Western China. Understanding the influence of future climate change under different CO2 emission scenarios on the potential distributions of A. inebrians is critical for planning agricultural strategies to manage the continued invasion. An ecological niche model (ENM) was developed using Maxent to predict the potential distribution of A. inebrians under three different CO2 emission scenarios. Occurrence records of A. inebrians were selected utilizing the nearest neighbor method. Six environmental variables, which were identified through principal component analysis, correlation analysis and their contribution rates, were used to perform the ENM. At the same time, considering the uncertainties of predicting future climates, four global circulation models were used for the Maxent projections with average results calculated. Our results demonstrate differential influences of various CO2 emission scenarios on the potential distributions of A. inebrians. Before 2050, high CO2 emission scenarios resulted in a wider potential distribution of A. inebrians, when compared to low CO2 emission scenarios. However, after 2050, the low CO2 emission scenarios were more conducive to an expanded potential distribution. In addition, after 2050, high CO2 emission scenarios maintain the geographical distribution centroids of A. inebrians in lower latitudes, while low CO2 emission scenarios result in distribution centroids rising to higher latitudes. Further, low CO2 emission scenarios resulted in the average potential distribution elevation dropping lower than in high CO2 emission scenarios.

Prediction of habitat suitability for the desert monitor (Varanus griseus caspius) under the influence of future climate change

Varanus griseus caspius (desert monitor) is a predator included appendix I of Convention on International Trade in Endangered Species; therefore, it is crucial to plan for its conservation. In this study, the suitable habitats of the desert monitor, Varanus griseus caspius, were evaluated in Iran, considering 10 environmental factors, for three periods of time: mid-Holocene, current, and years 2041–2060. Three individual models were produced to create an ensemble model: Generalized Boosting Model (GBM), Generalized Additive Model (GAM), and Random Forests (RF). Next, highly suitable areas in current and future periods were compared to the boundaries of conservation areas (CA). Among the different models projected, the ensemble model performed the best. The results indicated that so far, the distribution range of the species has shifted profoundly and will continue to grow in the future, while some currently suitable CAs will turn into unsuitable habitats for the species. We suggest further studies focus on redefining and broadening the CAs borders. Also, studying the species connectivity in current and potential future habitats can help to protect the species.

Radial Growth Responses to Climate of Pinus yunnanensis at Low Elevations of the Hengduan Mountains, China

The relationship between climate and forest is critical to understanding the influence of future climate change on terrestrial ecosystems. Research on trees at high elevations has uncovered the relationship in the Hengduan Mountains region, a critical biodiversity hotspot area in southwestern China. The relationship for the area at low elevations below 2800 m a.s.l. in the region remains unclear. In this study, we developed tree ring width chronologies of Pinus yunnanensis Franch. at five sites with elevations of 1170–1725 m in this area. Monthly precipitation, relative humidity, maximum/mean/minimum air temperature and the standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index (SPEI), a drought indicator with a multi-timescale, were used to investigate the radial growth-climate relationship. Results show that the growth of P. yunnanensis at different sites has a similar response pattern to climate variation. Relative humidity, precipitation, and air temperature in the dry season, especially in its last month (May), are critical to the radial growth of trees. Supplemental precipitation amounts and reduced mean or maximum air temperature can promote tree growth. The high correlations between chronologies and SPEI indicate that the radial growth of trees at the low elevations of the region is significantly limited by the moisture availability. Precipitation in the last month of the previous wet season determines the drought regime in the following dry seasons. In spite of some differences in the magnitudes of correlations in the low-elevation area of the Hengduan Mountains region, chronologies generally matched well with each other at different elevations, and the differences are not evident with the change in elevation.

Bivariate frequency analysis of seasonal runoff series under future climate change

ABSTRACT Climate change will not only affect a single hydrological series but also may affect the dependence structure. However, traditional hydrological approaches often fail to analyse the multiple characteristics of runoff within a bivariate framework under climate change. This study explores the influence of future climate change (2031 − 2080) on the runoff volume series in spring, summer and autumn as well as their dependence structures in the Luanhe River Basin, China. The results indicate that the time-varying dependence structure between spring and summer runoff series, as well as that between the summer and autumn runoff series, are mainly related to the summer precipitation. The differences between copula models with constant dependence parameters and those with time-varying dependence parameters are presented under different cases. This study incorporates the impacts of climate change on the bivariate frequency analysis of seasonal runoff series, which may provide important guidance for water resource management under climate change.

Predictions of potential geographical distribution of Diaphorina citri (Kuwayama) in China under climate change scenarios

Climate change significantly affects geographic distribution of plants pests and diseases worldwide. Understanding the influence of future climate change on the suitable areas of Diaphorina citri (Kuwayama) in our country and taking timely countermeasures are crucial for improving the effectiveness of control of pest. Based on the occurrence points of D. citri and the selected environmental variables, the potential suitable areas of this pest under climate change scenarios in China were predicted by using MaxEnt and GIS tools. Our results showed that the higly suitable area were mainly located in Guangxi, Guangdong, Fujian, Southern Zhejiang, Southern Jiangxi, Eastern Hunan, Southwestern Guizhou, and the area was 43.7 × 104 km2. Areas of moderate and low suitability were centered on areas of high suitability and radiate to the North successively, with an area of 59.28 × 104 km2 and 93.46 × 104 km2 respectively. From current to 2070 s, the areas of the highly suitable areas will increase, and the geometric center of the highly and total suitable areas will move to north under three climate change scenarios.

Modeling Soil Water–Heat Dynamic Changes in Seed-Maize Fields under Film Mulching and Deficit Irrigation Conditions

The Soil–Water–Atmosphere–Plant (SWAP) model does not have a mulching module to simulate the effect of film mulching on soil water, heat dynamics and crop growth. In this study, SWAP model parameters were selected to simulate the soil water–heat process and crop growth, taking into account the effect of film mulching on soil evaporation, temperature, and crop growth, in order to predict the influence of future climate change on crop growth and evapotranspiration (ET). A most suitable scheme for high yield and water use efficiency (WUE) was studied by an experiment conducted in the Shiyang River Basin of Northwest China during 2017 and 2018. The experiment included mulching (M1) and non-mulching (M0) under three drip irrigation treatments, including full (WF), medium (WM), low (WL) water irrigation. Results demonstrated that SWAP simulated soil water storage (SWS) well, soil temperature at various depths, leaf area index (LAI) and aboveground dry biomass (ADB) with the normalized root mean square error (NRMSE) of 16.2%, 7.5%, 16.1% and 16.4%, respectively; and yield, ET, and WUE with the mean relative error (MRE) of 10.5%, 12.4% and 14.8%, respectively, under different treatments on average. The measured and simulated results showed film mulching could increase soil temperature, promote LAI during the early growth period, and ultimately improve ADB, yield and WUE. Among the treatments, M1WM treatment with moderate water deficit and film mulching could achieve the target of more WUE, higher yield, less irrigation water. Changes in atmospheric temperature, precipitation, and CO2 concentration are of worldwide concern. Three Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) scenarios (RCP2.6, RCP4.5, RCP8.5) showed a negative effect on LAI, ADB and yield of seed-maize. The yield of seed-maize on an average decreased by 33.2%, 13.9% under the three RCPs scenarios for film mulching and non-mulching, respectively. Predicted yields under film mulching were lower than that under non-mulching for the next 30 years demonstrating that current film mulching management might not be suitable for this area to improve crop production under the future climate scenarios.

The influence of future climate change on wind energy potential in the Republic of Serbia

In this paper, we analyzed the influence of future climate change on wind energy potential in the Republic of Serbia. We used climate projections from two regional climate models: the coupled regional climate model Eta Belgrade University-Princeton Ocean Model (EBU-POM) and the Nonhydrostatic Multiscale Model on the B grid (NMMB). First, the daily wind speed at 10 m above ground that was simulated with both models was verified against observed data at 13 meteorological stations in the reference period, 1971–2000. Then, the wind speed at 10 m above ground was bias corrected and extrapolated to 70 m above ground, and the wind energy density was calculated at the same height. Next, the wind speed and wind density energy in a future period, 2071–2100, were calculated and compared with the reference period. Based on the analyzed results, the annual wind speed from the EBU-POM model underestimates the observed values at all stations, while the annual wind speed from NMMB model overestimates the observed values at all stations. In comparison with the reference period, the annual wind speed in the future will decrease in Serbia. These changes are small but statistically significant. On the other hand, analyses for different seasons revealed that seasonal changes in wind speed will be in the range of ± 5% relative to the reference period.

Effect of elevated temperature and carbon dioxide on wheat (Triticum aestivum) productivity with and without weed interaction

Wheat (Triticum aestivum L.) crop is one of the most valuable crops, and further boost in wheat yields is essential to meet the food demand of the emerging world population. It is therefore necessary to know the influence of future climate change on wheat yields. Present investigation was conducted in temperature gradient tunnel (TGTs) to evaluate the effects of elevated temperature, CO2 concentration,weed and their interactions on grain, biological yield and other yield attributes (number of spikes/m2, number of spikelets/spike, number of grains/spike and 1000-grain weight, harvest index) of wheat. Wheat crop was grown in TGT at three different temperature levels, i.e. T1 ambient, T2 ambient+1.5°C, T3 ambient+3°C and two levels of carbon dioxide, i.e. ambient (ACO2) 400 ppm and elevated (ECO2) 550±50 ppm with and without weed interaction.The study revealed that yield and yield attributes of subsequent wheat crop increased due to ECO2. Mean individual effect of ECO2 increased grain yield of wheat by 14% and biological yield by 12% compared to ACO2. On the contrary, the yield was decreased with elevated temperature where a decrease in the grain yield from ˗12% to ˗20% and biological yield from ˗11% to ˗18% was observed at 1.5°C and 3°C, respectively. Similarly the interaction of weeds in wheat crop, reduced the grain yield by 8% and biological yield of wheat by 6%, irrespective of CO2 and temperature levels.The statistical analysis (P<0.05) revealed significant effect of the interactions (C×T, C×W, W×T, and C×T×W) on yield. Overall results the study proposal to adapt an effective weeds management strategy to controlled conditions of yield of wheat crop under the controlled conditions of CO2 and temperature.

Future recovery of baleen whales is imperiled by climate change.

Historical harvesting pushed many whale species to the brink of extinction. Although most Southern Hemisphere populations are slowly recovering, the influence of future climate change on their recovery remains unknown. We investigate the impacts of two anthropogenic pressures—historical commercial whaling and future climate change—on populations of baleen whales (blue, fin, humpback, Antarctic minke, southern right) and their prey (krill and copepods) in the Southern Ocean. We use a climate–biological coupled “Model of Intermediate Complexity for Ecosystem Assessments” (MICE) that links krill and whale population dynamics with climate change drivers, including changes in ocean temperature, primary productivity and sea ice. Models predict negative future impacts of climate change on krill and all whale species, although the magnitude of impacts on whales differs among populations. Despite initial recovery from historical whaling, models predict concerning declines under climate change, even local extinctions by 2100, for Pacific populations of blue, fin and southern right whales, and Atlantic/Indian fin and humpback whales. Predicted declines were a consequence of reduced prey (copepods/krill) from warming and increasing interspecific competition between whale species. We model whale population recovery under an alternative scenario whereby whales adapt their migratory patterns to accommodate changing sea ice in the Antarctic and a shifting prey base. Plasticity in range size and migration was predicted to improve recovery for ice‐associated blue and minke whales. Our study highlights the need for ongoing protection to help depleted whale populations recover, as well as local management to ensure the krill prey base remains viable, but this may have limited success without immediate action to reduce emissions.

Influence of future climate change in suitable habitats of tea in different countries

Influence of future climate change in suitable habitats of tea in different countries

Modeling water and heat transfer in soil-plant-atmosphere continuum applied to maize growth under plastic film mulching

Based on our previous work modeling crop growth (CropSPAC) and water and heat transfer in the soil-plant-atmosphere continuum (SPAC), the model was improved by considering the effect of plastic film mulching applied to field-grown maize in North-west China. In CropSPAC, a single layer canopy model and a multi-layer soil model were adopted to simulate the energy partition between the canopy and water and heat transfer in the soil, respectively. The maize growth module included photosynthesis, growth stage calculation, biomass accumulation, and participation. The CropSPAC model coupled the maize growth module and SPAC water and heat transfer module through leaf area index (LAI), plant height and soil moisture condition in the root zone. The LAI and plant height were calculated from the maize growth module and used as input for the SPAC water and heat transfer module, and the SPAC module output for soil water stress conditions used as an input for maize growth module. We used <i>r</i>_<i>s</i>, the representation of evaporation resistance, instead of the commonly used evaporation resistance <i>r</i>_<i>s</i>0 to reflect the change of latent heat flux of soil evaporation under film mulching as well as the induced change in energy partition. The model was tested in a maize field at Yingke irrigation area in North-west China. Results showed reasonable agreement between the simulations and measurements of LAI, above-ground biomass and soil water content. Compared with the original model, the modified model was more reliable for maize growth simulation under film mulching and showed better accuracy for the LAI (with the coefficient of determination <i>R</i>² = 0.92, the root mean square of error RMSE= 1.23, and the Nush-Suttclife efficiency E_ns = 0.87), the above-ground biomass (with <i>R</i>² = 0.96, RMSE= 7.17 t·ha⁻¹ and E_ns = 0.95) and the soil water content in 0–1 m soil layer (with <i>R</i>² = 0.78, RMSE= 49.44 mm and E_ns = 0.26). Scenarios were considered to simulate the influence of future climate change and film mulching on crop growth, soil water and heat conditions, and crop yield. The simulations indicated that the change of LAI, leaf biomass and yield are negatively correlated with temperature change, but the growing degree-days, evaporation, soil water content and soil temperature are positively correlated with temperature change. With an increase in the ratio of film mulching area, the evaporation will decrease, while the impact of film mulching on crop transpiration is not significant. In general, film mulching is effective in saving water, preserving soil moisture, increasing soil surface temperature, shortening the potential growth period, and increasing the potential yield of maize.

Predicting the influence of future climate change on the suitable distribution areas of Elaeagnus angustifolia.

Climate change significantly affects geographic distribution of plants worldwide. Understanding the influence of climate change on the suitable areas of afforestation tree species in China and taking timely countermeasures are crucial for improving the effectiveness of afforestation. Elaeagnus angustifolia is a good species for ecological restoration of degraded lands and control of desertification. Using MaxEnt and GIS, we predicted the changes of climatically suitable areas of this species under future climate scenarios, based on 182 records from herbaria and published literatures, and 13 climatic factors from BIOCLIM, Holdridge life zone and Kira index. The results showed that the four climate scenarios in 2070s had different effects on the climatically suitable areas of this species. The suitable areas would shrink in the lowest greenhouse gas emission (RCP 2.6) scenario. The shrinking areas were mainly located in the edge of the currently suitable areas in the northwest. The suitable areas would expand in the lower (RCP 4.5), the higher (RCP 6.0) and the highest (RCP 8.5) greenhouse gas emission scenarios. The expanding areas were mainly located in the northwestern arid regions of warm temperate zone, and northeastern sub-humid regions of middle temperate zone. There were obvious expansions in the northern arid and semi-arid regions of middle temperate zone, and southern humid regions of north-subtropical zone under RCP 8.5 scenario. The geographical centroids of future suitable ranges would move with a speed of 6-19 km·(10 a)-1. The altitudinal centroids were predicted to move to lower regions with a speed of 3-20 m·(10 a)-1. The stably suitable areas accounted for 83%-98% of the current distribution ranges of this species, which were generally stable under future climate change scenarios.