Abstract
Climate change significantly affects geographic distribution of plants pests and diseases worldwide. Understanding the influence of future climate change on the suitable areas of Diaphorina citri (Kuwayama) in our country and taking timely countermeasures are crucial for improving the effectiveness of control of pest. Based on the occurrence points of D. citri and the selected environmental variables, the potential suitable areas of this pest under climate change scenarios in China were predicted by using MaxEnt and GIS tools. Our results showed that the higly suitable area were mainly located in Guangxi, Guangdong, Fujian, Southern Zhejiang, Southern Jiangxi, Eastern Hunan, Southwestern Guizhou, and the area was 43.7 × 104 km2. Areas of moderate and low suitability were centered on areas of high suitability and radiate to the North successively, with an area of 59.28 × 104 km2 and 93.46 × 104 km2 respectively. From current to 2070 s, the areas of the highly suitable areas will increase, and the geometric center of the highly and total suitable areas will move to north under three climate change scenarios.
Highlights
Climate change has become one of the global hot environmental issues, and agriculture is the most sensitive area affected by climate change[1]
MaxEnt is a mathematical model based on the principle of climate similarity; it is used to explore the correlation between geographical distribution and climatic factors
MaxEnt model was used to study the suitable areas of D. citri in China under current and future climatic conditions
Summary
Climate change has become one of the global hot environmental issues, and agriculture is the most sensitive area affected by climate change[1]. The Asian citrus Psylla, Diaphorina citri Kuwayama (Hemiptera: Psyllidae), which feeds on almost all citrus varieties, is the main pest in the new shoot stage of host plants[9] It ingests phloem with the piercing-sucking mouthparts, which causes the young shoots to wither, the new shoots to bend, and the young leaves to deform and twist. HLB disease occurs in 17 major citrus producing provinces in China, with an area of more than 200000 hectares, causing great economic losses every year[16,17]. For D. citri, researchers world-wide have studied its biological and ecological characteristics[25,26], the transmission of the pathogen causing HLB27,28, the principle of host selection[29] and comprehensive control measures[30,31], but there are not many special studies on its geographical distribution in China. The relevant research results of this paper will provide theory and data support for the early warning, quarantine inspection and comprehensive prevention and control of D. citri
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