VH-CATT cylindrical gear is a new transmission mechanism. In order to study the influence of design parameters and material strength degradation of the VH-CATT cylindrical gear on its transmission reliability. The Kriging surrogate model based on improved quantum particle swarm optimization (QPSO) algorithm was used to establish the limit state equation of contact stress for the VH-CATT cylindrical gear based on the stress-strength interference theory. The state equation of contact stress of the VH-CATT cylindrical gear was obtained with higher precision. Also, the strength degradation model with gamma distribution was established by using the P-S-N curve to estimate the parameters of the strength degradation model with gamma distribution. The reliability sensitivity of the VH-CATT cylindrical gear was analyzed by improved first order second moment method (AFOSM) based on the limit state equation of contact stress of the VH-CATT cylindrical gear, the reliability of gear considering strength degradation was studied by using the improved first order second moment method (AFOSM). The analysis results show that the failure rate decreases with the increase of pressure Angle, tooth width, modulus and tooth radius. The failure rate increases with increasing torque. Strength degradation has a certain influence on the reliability of gear and opinion. And the reliability of the gear is lower than that of the opinion, Strength degradation has a greater influence on the failure probability of gear, at the same time, the reliability of the gear pair decreases with the strength degradation. After 15000 hours of operation, the reliability of the gear pair is only 0.63155.
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