Trend Of Inflow Research Articles

Assessing Global Reservoir‐Based Hydrological Droughts by Fusing Storage and Evaporation

AbstractAlthough reservoirs serve as a lifeline for drought mitigation and adaptation, reservoir‐based droughts (RBD) have received limited attention. Especially RBD that incorporate reservoir evaporation have remained overlooked. Here, we develop an Integrated Reservoir Drought Index (IRDI) using a Frank copula by combining the effects of reservoir storage and evaporation rate for 164 global reservoirs. Results show that Africa, South America, and Australia have experienced relatively longer RBD, whereas Asia and Africa have experienced more intense RBD. Furthermore, when significant (p‐value < 0.05) trends in inflow and IRDI have shown opposite signs at a given reservoir, it is implied that human influence was the dominant driver of the long‐term changes in RBD. We found that RBD was driven by climate in 71% of the 38 reservoirs examined and by human activities in the remaining 29% of reservoirs. Our study provides reservoir specific drought outlook that has significant environmental and sustainability implications.

Estimation of Supply and Demand for Cardiologists in Korea.

The objective of this study was to estimate the supply and demand for cardiologists in Korea and provide evidence for healthcare policy to ensure a stable and adequate workforce for optimal cardiovascular disease management. Past trends of inflow and outflow of cardiologists were used to make crude projections, which were then adjusted based on demands of services to obtain final projections. Inflow of cardiologists was estimated using second-order polynomial regression and demand for cardiology care was estimated using linear regression. There were 1,139 active cardiologists who were under the age of 65 in clinical practice in Korea. The estimated number of cardiologists from 2022 to 2040 showed that the number of cardiologists would peak at 1,344 in 2032 and gradually decrease thereafter. We also estimated an increase of 947,811 cases of heart-related procedures annually from 2023 to 2032. The number of heart-related procedures per cardiologist would increase 1.4 times from 12,964 in 2023 to 17,862 in 2032. The estimated number of emergency patients per cardiologist under 50 years old would almost double from 544 in 2022 to 987 in 2032. We expect significant shortage of cardiologists in Korea within the next 10 years. The number of emergency patients per cardiologist will increase by nearly 50%, leading to high individual workload for cardiologists. To prevent this imbalance between supply and demand, an organized and collective approach by the specialty of cardiology is imperative to produce a balanced workforce.

Analysis of hydroclimatic trends and variability and their impacts on hydropower generation in two river basins in Côte d’Ivoire (West Africa) during 1981–2017

Climate change (CC) and variability impacts on hydroelectric generation have become critical for hydropower management. The trends of inflow, outflow, reservoir water level, and storage as well as hydraulicity indices of three main dams in Côte d’Ivoire, namely Kossou and Taabo in the Bandama basin and Buyo in the Sassandra basin were examined during 1981–2017 and their impacts on hydropower generation were analyzed. Moreover, the hydropower generation sensitivity to CC of these dams was assessed using statistical analysis. The results reveal that the inflow is highly dependent on rainfall while the water level is highly influenced by the outflow, which is a function of the inflow to the reservoirs and water management policy. Furthermore, the Mann Kendall test revealed that temperature and potential evapotranspiration have increased significantly in all three sub-basins while precipitation shows a significant upward trend only within the Taabo dam catchment area. Meanwhile, inflow to reservoir increased significantly and greatly than precipitation probably due to land use/cover change. Precipitation and inflow show a strong correlation as energy generation is significantly and strongly correlated to outflow (inflow) in all stations (except Kossou). Furthermore, the energy generation at Buyo and Taabo dams is more sensitive to reservoir inflow, while that of Kossou dam is more affected by water level. In addition, the power of a given year is also dependent on the total rainfall of that year and/or the previous year depending on the plant.

Homestay Tourism Promoting Local Entrepreneurship in Nepal: A Case Study of Sirubari Village, Syangja

Abstract: The main purpose of the study is to explore the Homestay Tourism Promoting Local Entrepreneurship in Nepal with references to Sirubari Village, Syangja. To meet the desired objective the study constituted three fundamental objectives as to study the tourists' inflow trend during the study period of current five years, role of homestay business at promoting local entrepreneurship in the village and satisfactory level of homestay operators because of tourism business in the village. To accomplish the objectives, the study has incorporated descriptive and analytical research design using both qualitative and quantitative data from primary and secondary data sources determining samples from the population. Study selected samples using random sampling among the homestay operators and convenient sampling among the non -homestay operators. For the primary data collection the study used both structured questionnaires and open interview with the respondents. For the data analysis the study has used SPSS. With the analysis the study concluded that the trend of domestic tourists' arrival was increasing whereas the trend of foreign tourists was fluctuated until 2019/2020 AD. However, because of global pandemic COVID-2019 the trend of domestic tourists' arrival appeared to be miserable and the arrival of foreign tourists reached at nil. Similarly, homestay tourism in Sirubari found to be milestone to the local people as the homestay operators increased to twenty three from seventeen during this current five years and key factors of the entrepreneurship are empowered. In addition to these the study found that the most of the key factors of satisfactory level of homestay operators are highly appreciated. Keywords: Entrepreneurship, Inbound tourism, Nepal, Outbound tourism,

Research on wheel rail system based on Dissipative Structure Theory

At present, the research on wheel-rail system is usually to analyze a problem separately, and draw a conclusion through experiments and simulations. This analysis result has certain accuracy, but it often cannot meet the requirements of optimization analysis of wheel-rail complex system. In this paper, by analyzing the characteristics of openness, away from equilibrium and fluctuation of wheel-rail system, a method of constructing element set based on information entropy is put forward. Entropy is used as a parameter to find out the inflow trend of wheel-rail system, and negative entropy flow and positive entropy flow are input to keep the system stable and orderly. The viewpoint of system engineering is put forward for the optimization of wheel-rail system.

Association between traffic inflow and COVID-19 prevalence at the provincial level in South Korea

ObjectivesTo analyze the relationship between traffic inflow and COVID-19 prevalence in South Korea for formulating prevention policies for novel infections. MethodsWe evaluated traffic inflow and new COVID-19 cases in 8 regions of Korea from January 1, 2020, to January 31, 2021. The toll collection system (TCS) traffic volume for 2019–2020 and traffic inflow trends were analyzed using independent samples t-test and nonlinear regression, respectively. The association between TCS traffic volume and new COVID-19 cases by city was analyzed using correlation analysis. ResultsTraffic inflow volume in 2020 decreased 3.7% from 2019. The TCS traffic inflow trend in the 8 provinces decreased during the first COVID-19 wave, gradually increased until the second wave, decreased after the second wave, and showed a sharp decrease in the third wave. There was a positive correlation between the traffic inflow volume and new cases in Busan-Gyeongnam and Jeonbuk, but not in Daegu-Gyeongbuk or Gangwon. ConclusionsA decrease in new COVID-19 cases in the regions was associated with increased traffic inflow volume. Therefore, the Korean government can establish preventive social distancing policies by identifying increases or decreases in traffic volume. These policies will also need to consider the distribution of vaccines in each area.

Attracting Foreign Direct Investment to Boost Employment: A Route to Become Atmanirbhar

This paper intends to provide an overview of the trends of inflow of foreign capital in India and how it contributed to the employment growth. A comparison of Indian scenario with the rest of the world is presented next. It is found that inflow of foreign capital is concentrated mainly in the service sector and is inadequate in the manufacturing sector. Foreign investment led to increased employment in absolute terms, but it is not sufficient to absorb the ever-expanding working-age population of India. Therefore, this study also zooms into the possible channelization of foreign capital that would help create employment opportunities which requires improvement in the employability of workers. In other words, we prescribe policies that will make India ‘Atmanirbhar’.

Analysis of Migration Trends in Zimbabwe Using Mann-Kendall and Sen’s Slope Tests

The movement of people into and out of the Zimbabwean borders has become a topical issue in every sector of the country. The main devastating movement is when a lot of skilled professionals leave the country to other countries in search of greener pastures without ploughing back home and left the country of origin with few or no skilled personnel to drive the economy forward. Zimbabwe is one of the developing countries that have suffered the “brain drain” for the past decades and currently there seem no solution to stop this emigration. There is no equal balance between immigrants and emigrants. In this paper, we investigate the trend analysis of Zimbabwe migration using Mann-Kendall and Sen’s Slope test. We find Mann-Kendall Test imperative in the analysis of trends of migration since it most requires data which is not normally distributed and data which contains extreme values which are difficult to handle using parametric test. Firstly, we investigate the direction of the trend and then its magnitude in terms of slope. Results show that there is a significant increase in the number of migrants going out of Zimbabwe to other countries over past two decades. This is indicated by high positive magnitudes in trend or the Sen’s estimator. On the other hand, there is insignificant trend of inflows from other countries into Zimbabwe over a decade from February to December, except in every January.

Experimental investigation of the effect of yaw angle on the inflow of a two-bladed propeller

An experimental investigation has been performed to measure the inflow of a two-bladed propeller. This is conducted over a range of advance ratios (J=0.36 to 1.54) and yaw angles (γ=0 to 20∘) at a Reynolds number of Re≈111000, based on the chord length and advancing blade resultant velocity at the 70% spanwise position. Drawing on experimental results, three major qualitative trends are observed, that characterise the axial induced inflow of inclined propellers: the formation of an approximately sinusoidal inflow trend around the azimuth featuring broad regions of increased and reduced inflow, an azimuthal phase shift of the trend from the advancing and retreating blade positions, and the dependencies of the inflow maxima, minima and phase shift on advance ratio, yaw angle and radial position. These are subsequently compared against two widely used assumptions for calculating the aerodynamic environment of inclined propellers; firstly, that inflow at each radial and azimuthal element is calculated using an axial approximation of the whole propeller disc operating within the same condition as that element, and secondly, uniform induced inflow across the entire propeller plane. The comparison demonstrates the limitations of said assumptions by highlighting their inability to account for components of the trailed and shed vortical systems of the propeller wake.

Teleconnection between Cold ENSO Phases and Seasonal Rainfall Over Sri Lanka: Case Study in Kotmale Catchment

Cold ENSO phase or La-Nina is the least considered atmospheric oscillation in the hydro-meteorological sector in Sri Lanka. Therefore, this study focused on understanding teleconnection between cold ENSO phases and the seasonal rainfall over Kotmale catchment. Daily rainfall data of 9meteorological stations were used to investigate behaviour of annual rainfall climatologies of the catchment. Daily mean inflow data of Kotmale reservoir for the duration of 1984 - 2012 was analysed to understand the trends of the reservoir inflow. Sea surface temperature values were extracted from the Japan Meteorological Agency to determine cold ENSO phase. Rainfall trend for each station and inflow trend of the reservoir both declined throughout the selected time duration. However the rate of decreasing trend changes with each station. Seasonal rainfall of all the stations showed negative correlation with mean sea surface temperature over Nino 3 region for December to September. Cold ENSO phases encounter prominent above-average seasonal rainfall during and the onset of South-West monsoon. Further, onset and during of North-East monsoon rainfall over the catchment was weakened due to the impact of cold ENSO phase over Nino 3 region. However, further studies are suggested to identify hidden opposite phenomenon observed during cold ENSO phases on 1964 and 1967 in Kotmale catchment, where all the stations experienced worst below-average seasonal rainfall.

Agriculture, diversions, and drought shrinking Galilee Sea

In water-limited regions worldwide, climate change and population growth threaten to desiccate lakes. As these lakes disappear, water managers have often implicated climate change-induced decreases in precipitation and higher temperature-driven evaporative demand—factors out of their control, while simultaneously constructing dams and drilling new wells into aquifers to permit agricultural expansion. One such shrinking lake is the Sea of Galilee (Lake Kinneret), whose decadal mean level has reached a record low, which has sparked heated debate regarding the causes of this shrinkage. However, the relative importance of climatic change, agricultural consumption, and increases in Lebanese water consumption, remain unknown. Here we show that the level of the Sea of Galilee would be stable, even in the face of decreasing precipitation in the Golan Heights. Climatic factors alone are inadequate to explain the record shrinkage of the Sea of Galilee. We found no decreasing trends in inflow from the headwaters of the Upper Jordan River located primarily in Lebanon. Rather, the decrease in discharge of the Upper Jordan River corresponded to a period of expanding irrigated agriculture, doubling of groundwater pumping rates within the basin, and increasing of the area of standing and impounded waters. While rising temperatures in the basin are statistically significant and may increase evapotranspiration, these temperature changes are too small to explain the magnitude of observed streamflow decreases. The results demonstrate that restoring the level of the Sea of Galilee will require reductions in groundwater pumping, surface water diversions, and water consumption by irrigated agriculture.

Mapping of Spacecraft Research Publications in India: A Scientometric Analysis

This paper presents a scientometric analysis of the scholastic research papers published on spacecraft. The main purpose is to provide an overview of the research productivity in India on the subject during the period of the study (2012-2016), exploring different subdivisions of the spacecraft research. Ever since India sent a spacecraft to Mars in 2014, India has earned its place in the top ranking space-faring nations which include the USA, Europe Russia, China and Japan. This study highlights a quantitative analysis on the authorship pattern and collaborative trends during the past five years in the newly emerged the growing field of spacecraft in Engineering. This study reveals almost a constant trend of inflow of papers with increasing trend of multi authored papers year by year. Highest share of Papers are being contributed by authors from India, written in English and the results of degree of collaboration C= 0.91 of collaborative author’s articles is published during the study period.

Reservoir Inflow Forecast Using a Clustered Random Deep Fusion Approach in the Three Gorges Reservoir, China

Reservoir inflow forecast plays a crucial part in programming, development, operation, and management of water resource systems. To better reveal the complex properties of daily reservoir inflow, a clustered deep fusion (CDF) approach is proposed in this paper. First, variational mode decomposition (VMD) is used to decompose the daily reservoir inflow series into multiple modes, which are clustered into different sets by fuzzy c-means according to the Xie-Beni index in view of attribute domain. In each cluster, a deep autoencoder model (DAE) is developed for deep representations of the attributes in the deep domain. DAE outputs are finally fused at the synthesis domain into the forecasting results using random forest (RF). In this way, the inflow time series may be successively observed in the attribute domain, deep domain, and synthesis domain, which results in a clearer understanding of reservoir inflow trend. The present approach is modeled and evaluated using historical data collected from the Three Gorges Reservoir, China. For comparison, two kinds of learning patterns—deep learning (VMD-DAE-RF and DAE) and shallow learning (feed-forward neural network, least-squares support regression, and RF)—are applied to the same case. The results indicate that the proposed CDF model outperforms all comparison models in terms of mean absolute percentage error (6.174%), root mean-square error (1,077.428 m3/s), and correlation coefficient criteria (0.987). Thus, it is concluded that deep learning in the cluster fusion architecture is more promising.

Authorship Pattern in Spacecraft Research Publication in India

This paper investigates research papers published during 2012-2016 about spacecraft as reflected through its publication productivity in different years. This study highlights a quantitative analysis on the authorship pattern and collaborative trends during the past five years in the newly emerged ever growing field of spacecraft in Engineering. Ever since India sent a spacecraft to mars in 2014, India has earned its place in the top ranking space-faring nations which include the USA, Europe Russia, China and Japan. The study reveals almost a constant trend of inflow of papers with increasing trend of multi authored papers year by year. Highest share of Papers are being contributed by authors from India, written in English.

Adaptation of Cascade Hydropower Station Scheduling on A Headwater Stream of the Yangtze River under Changing Climate Conditions

Cascade hydropower stations are effective in water resource utilization, regional water allocation, and flood risk management. Under changing climate conditions, water resources would experience complex temporal and spatial changes, which may lead to various issues relating to flood control and water resource management, and challenge the existing optimal scheduling of cascade hydropower stations. It is thus important to conduct a study on cascade hydropower station scheduling under changing climate conditions. In this study, the Jinsha River rainfall–discharge statistical model is developed based on the statistical relationship between meteorological and runoff indicators. Validation results indicate that the developed model is capable of generating satisfactory simulation results and thus can be used for future Jinsha River runoff projection under climate change. Meanwhile, the Providing Regional Climates for Impacts Studies (PRECIS) is run to project future rainfall in the Jinsha River basin under two General Circulation Models (ECHAM5 and HadAM3P), two scenarios (A1B and B2), and four periods (1961–1990, 1991–2020, 2021–2050, and 2051–2099). The regional climate modeling data are analyzed and then fed into the Jinsha hydrological model to analyze the trends of future discharge at Xiangjiaba Hydro Station. Adaptive scheduling strategies for cascade hydropower stations are discussed based on the future inflow trend analysis and current flood scheduling mode. It is suggested that cascade hydropower stations could be operated at flood limited water level (FLWL) during 2021–2099. In addition, the impoundment of cascade hydropower stations should be properly delayed during the post-flood season in response to the possible occurrence of increased and extended inflow in wet seasons.

Fuzzy Dynamical System Scenario Simulation-Based Cross-Border Financial Contagion Analysis: A Perspective From International Capital Flows

This paper focuses on investigating the cross-border financial contagion based on a fuzzy dynamical system scenario simulation from a perspective of analyzing the volatility of international capital flows for a panel of 50 countries in emerging markets and advanced economies from 1980 to 2011. Increasing evidence has shown that financial globalization has developed into a complex nonlinear dynamical system made up of economic subsystems with extensive financial connections and linkages. The contagion effects of the spread of bonanzas in the 50 countries are identified and analyzed. The Hodrick–Prescott filter is employed to address the long-term net capital inflow trend. The comovement of financial contagion between the source country of financial turbulence and the volatility-affected country is described as a fuzzy dynamical system in which the driving and response systems are coupled. A fuzzy dynamical system scenario simulation model under a liberal economy is established by employing nonlinear differential equations to describe the contagion mechanism and the international capital flow volatility effects. The model is then extended to a dynamical system model with macroeconomic control. The coupling strength uncertainty is addressed by employing an interval type-2 fuzzy theory method. The properties of the volatility equilibrium point for the two models are discussed, and the volatility contagion principles based on locally asymptotic stability analysis are derived to explain the different volatility transmission patterns. Policy suggestions are given in three situations for providing managerial insights for policymakers and the explorations of response strategies are also presented. The global financial crisis in 2008 is used as an experimental study to demonstrate the validity and effectiveness of the simulation and modeling method.

Forecasting the Rainfall Pattern on Upstream of Hirakud Reservoir Using L-Moment for Accessing the Inflow

Changes in the rainfall pattern are a challenge for filling schedule of reservoir, when it is fulfilling various demands. In monsoon fed reservoirs, the target remains for attaining full reservoir capacity in order to meet various demands during non-monsoon period and the flood control. The planners always eye towards the inflow trend and perspective frequency of rainfall in order to counter the extreme events. In this study, the case of Hirakud reservoir of Mahanadi basin of India is considered as this reservoir meets various demands as well as controls devastating floods. The inflow trend has been detected by using Mann Kendall test. The frequency analysis of monthly rainfall is calculated using L-moment program for finalizing a regional distribution. The falling trend in inflow to reservoir is visualized in the month of July and August. The Wakeby distribution is found suitable for the monthly rainfall of July, September and October, where as in June and August, General Extreme Value (GEV), General Normal (GN) and Pearson Type-III (PT-III) distributions are found suitable. The regional growth factors for the 20, 40, 50 and 100-year return period rain-falls along with inflow to reservoir observed between 1958-2010 are calculated in this study as a referral for reservoir operation policy.

Climate Change Impacts on Agricultural Drought with Consideration of Uncertainty in CMIP5 Scenarios

AbstractThis study was conducted to evaluate the impact of climate change on agricultural drought on 104 agricultural reservoirs in Korea. The bias corrected data appropriately reproduced the temporal trends of inflow from upstream river basins, irrigation water demand from paddy areas and reservoir storage level. When eleven climate model data were applied to a representative reservoir, inflow by individual models had a range of ‐11.5 to 11.1%, compared to the multi‐model ensembles mean value. Water demand also showed a similar trend to the inflow, had a range of ‐11.0 to 10.0%, while storage level had a narrow range of ‐3.9 to 2.1%. When 104 reservoirs were considered, inflow in the future period (2011 ~ 2040) increased by 7.8 and 9.3% for the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) 4.5 and 8.5 scenarios, respectively, mainly due to the increase in precipitation. Similarly, irrigation water demand increased by 2.3 and 1.6% for RCP4.5 and 8.5, respectively, due to the increase in temperature. As a result, the water storage level increased by 0.7 and 0.5% for RCP4.5 and 8.5, respectively. However, despite the increase in average reservoir storage level, the frequency of the number of droughts more severe than 10 year frequency drought increased. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Impact of Foreign Direct Investment on Economic Development of India

‘Globalisation’ and ‘Liberalisation’ constitute the central theme of economic policy in nearly all developing economies now. It is more so in the context of Asian countries. These economies have launched great plans for speedier development of infrastructure and industrial growth in recent decades. As developing economies in general and Indian economy, in particular, have pitched high hopes of support from the foreign direct investment (FDI) in development action, foreign investors see great potential of growth in India and find Indian policy favourable towards foreign investment which allows an equal level playing field for them. This article tries to assess the role of FDI in India and its prospect in future. It also attempts to define FDI, and spell out its characteristics, trends of inflow, participation investing partners and states of ‘Make in India’ move with FDI trends. This article also explains the nature of obstacles on way for large-scale FDI inflow in India.

Study of Productivity, Citation Patterns and Changing Trends in Defence Science Journal during 2009-2014

The paper presents bibliometric analysis of 10671 citations appearing in 471 papers published in Defence Science Journal (DSJ) during 2009-2014. Efforts have been made to study the productivity and citation patterns of researchers for their published papers based on various parameters. The paper studies the automation process taken place and significant changes occurred. The study reveals almost a constant trend of inflow of papers with increasing trend of multi-authored papers. Highest share of papers are being contributed by authors of Indian origin, majority being from DRDO, and journals being the predominant source of information cited by the researchers for their R&D works. dx.doi.org/10.14429/djlit.35.5.9008