Fuzzy Dynamical System Scenario Simulation-Based Cross-Border Financial Contagion Analysis: A Perspective From International Capital Flows

Abstract

This paper focuses on investigating the cross-border financial contagion based on a fuzzy dynamical system scenario simulation from a perspective of analyzing the volatility of international capital flows for a panel of 50 countries in emerging markets and advanced economies from 1980 to 2011. Increasing evidence has shown that financial globalization has developed into a complex nonlinear dynamical system made up of economic subsystems with extensive financial connections and linkages. The contagion effects of the spread of bonanzas in the 50 countries are identified and analyzed. The Hodrick–Prescott filter is employed to address the long-term net capital inflow trend. The comovement of financial contagion between the source country of financial turbulence and the volatility-affected country is described as a fuzzy dynamical system in which the driving and response systems are coupled. A fuzzy dynamical system scenario simulation model under a liberal economy is established by employing nonlinear differential equations to describe the contagion mechanism and the international capital flow volatility effects. The model is then extended to a dynamical system model with macroeconomic control. The coupling strength uncertainty is addressed by employing an interval type-2 fuzzy theory method. The properties of the volatility equilibrium point for the two models are discussed, and the volatility contagion principles based on locally asymptotic stability analysis are derived to explain the different volatility transmission patterns. Policy suggestions are given in three situations for providing managerial insights for policymakers and the explorations of response strategies are also presented. The global financial crisis in 2008 is used as an experimental study to demonstrate the validity and effectiveness of the simulation and modeling method.