Inflation Rate Research Articles

Latent Hidden Factor Model for Malaysia Consumer Price Index

The consumer price index (CPI) is one of the significant indicators that can be used to track the inflation rate of a country and assess changes in the cost of living. Generally, the CPI measures the change in the average price of goods and services used by households. The increase in inflation can have a negative socioeconomic effects and the changes in the CPI value needs to be monitored to ensure that the country does not experience a serious inflation rate. In this work, exploratory factor analysis (EFA) was employed to interpret the importance of each variable in the CPI and determine how the latent factors influence the CPI structure in Malaysia for the period of 2003–2022. The findings showed that there are two main latent factors that can be formed. Factor 1 can be classified as ‘Household Expenditures and Lifestyle Choices’ and consists of six variables, namely, ‘alcoholic beverages and tobacco’, ‘housing, water, electricity, gas, and other fuels’, ‘decoration, hardware, and household maintenance’, ‘health’, ‘recreational and cultural services’, and ‘education’. In contrast, Factor 2 can be classified as ‘Daily Necessities and Lifestyle Convenience’ which consists of six variables, namely, ‘food and non-alcoholic beverages’, ‘clothing and shoes’, ‘transportation’, ‘communication’, ‘restaurants and hotels’, and ‘various goods and services’. In addition, the results of our analysis showed that Factor 1 is more dominant in influencing the CPI structure in Malaysia.

MONETARY POLICY DYNAMICS IN NIGERIA: EMPIRICAL EVIDENCES FROM BAYESIAN VECTOR AUTOREGRESSION WITH STOCHASTIC VOLATILITY

In this paper, we examine the dynamics of monetary policy in Nigeria with Bayesian approach to a vector autoregression (VAR). We construct and estimate Bayesian Vector Autoregression with Stochastic Volatility (BVAR-SV) model and extract important policy inputs from the model. Nigeria economy is unstable and it is a known fact that changes to monetary policy affects performance of some macroeconomic variables. The BVAR has the ability to capture sudden changes and nonlinearities arising from the interaction among macroeconomic variables and associated shocks. The study uses monthly data during the period 2003M01 till 2023M12 with three macroeconomic variables namely; inflation rate, money supply, and interest rate. A Markov Chain Monte Carlo algorithm that allows for Bayesian estimation and prediction is employed. Results show that there is strong evidence of monetary policy playing a significant role in explaining the dynamics of interest rate while the impulse responses for the variables to a monetary policy shock do change significantly over time. Also, the monetary policy exert less significant influence in terms of money supply and inflation than interest rate in explaining the dynamics in of monetary policy. It is recommended that BVAR should be also be extended to other macroeconomic variables to examine the effects on monetary policy dynamics.

Critical Indicators on Macro Economics adoption in GDP: A systematic review

The study's goal is to investigate how important macroeconomic factors affect certain African nations. These metrics are crucial for the economies' effective development and can be utilized to address the many economic issues that the chosen countries are currently dealing with. 91 publications published between 2004 and 2022 were examined using the Scopus database. With an emphasis on five major factors: Growth Domestic Product (GDP), Interest Rate, Exchange Rate, Inflation, and Foreign Direct Investment this study evaluated and analyzed the literary elements and themes explored in order to give guidance for future research. The findings revealed that Interest rates, inflation, exchange rates, and foreign direct investment (FDI) are some of the macroeconomic variables that can affect the selected African economies. Foreign direct investment has been identified as the most important factor in improving industrial prosperity and living standards in developing economies such as Nigeria, South Africa, Egypt, Algeria, and Morocco after stabilizing interest rates, inflation and currency exchange rates. The study's findings are supported by material that has been published in previous years. Given that a number of recent economic issues have had an impact on the expansion of the economy, it is necessary to evaluate the ideas using panel data from the past 20 years in order to ascertain whether they are still valid. The report highlights the key macroeconomic factors that may have an impact on five different African economies. The study combines a number of economic metrics that have previously been studied separately to assess the trend in the economies it has chosen. To the best of my knowledge, this study is one of the few that evaluates both the individual countries used and the indicators in general.

BANK-SPECIFIC, ECONOMIC AND LEGAL DETERMINANTS OF PROFITABILITY IN THE REPUBLIC OF NORTH MACEDONIA

Background: Bank profitability is more than just a financial indicator; it is a reflection of the health and vitality of the banking sector and the economy as a whole. Profitable banks help to maintain financial stability by increasing resilience, facilitating capital formation and intermediation, promoting innovation and adaptability, and instilling confidence and trust. Hence, profitability is critical in the banking sector since it directly influences policymakers, regulators, and bank management. Therefore, the study will estimate the influence of specific bank and economic-legal determinants on return on assets in the Republic of North Macedonia. Thus, the study aims to estimate the influence of specific bank and economic-legal determinants on return on assets in the Republic of Northern Macedonia. Methods: The study employs the methodology of the Vector Error Correction Model (VECM) and covers quarterly data from 2007 to 2022. To conduct the empirical analysis required to identify and assess the factors of bank profitability, quantitative data were gathered primarily from the National Bank of the Republic of North Macedonia, the International Monetary Fund (IMF), and the World Bank. Return on Assets was used as a dependent variable. The set of factors is composed into two groups: the first includes bank-specific (controlled) factors such as the sectors’ size, credit risk, capital adequacy, liquidity, income diversification, efficiency of operations, and non-performing loans. The second group includes macroeconomic (uncontrolled) factors such as economic growth, inflation, and interest rates. Results and Conclusions: Results reveal that the size of the banking sector, the risk of the credit, liquidity, income diversification and non-performing loans have a meaningful but negative influence on the response variable. However, capital adequacy, operational efficiency, GDP and interest rate have an important positive impact. Hence, based on the empirical analyses, to boost profitability, the Macedonian banking system should prioritise asset management as a size indication, raising the non-income ratio to diversify revenue, reducing credit risk and non-performing loans, and maintaining a good liquidity ratio.Furthermore, there is clear evidence that second-level banks should extend beyond national borders. Better loan portfolio management, greater technology with database processing and communication improvements, and expanded technology with database processing and communication improvements can strengthen the ability to deal with the next crisis. Additionally, banks should increase non-interest revenue by employing it as a risk outlet in banking and distributing it across many income-generating enterprises, enhancing profitability. These findings offer insights for bank executives and regulators interested in increasing bank profitability and stability.

THE EFFECT OF INFLATION, EXPORT-IMPORT AND INTEREST RATES ON SALES THROUGH GDP/GDP MODERATION VARIABLES

This study aims to determine the effect of inflation, export-import, interest rates on sales in state-owned pharmaceutical holding companies with moderating variables of Gross Domestic Product (GDP). The type of research used is quantitative with primary and secondary data sources related to inflation, export-import, interest rates, GDP and sales. The data used is a combination of time series data for 2018-2022 and cross-section which is then referred to as panel data. The study was also conducted in more depth using a research instrument in the form of a questionnaire with respondents as many as six people who had positions as department heads in the parent company of Pharmaceutical SOEs. Data analysis techniques use multiple linear regression analysis and Moderating Regression Analysis. The results showed that simultaneously the variables of inflation, export-import and interest rates had a positive and significant effect on sales. Meanwhile, the moderation variable, namely GDP, partially affects sales, but cannot moderate the influence of inflation and export-import both in terms of strengthening and weakening the influence of the independent variable on the dependent variable. Other research results show GDP can be a pure moderator of the influence of interest rates on sales. This research has limitations, namely the variables used are macro, therefore for future research it is expected to be able to conduct research using micro variables in the economy. Keywords: Inflation, Export-Import, Interest Rate, GDP, Sales and Holding Company of SOEs.

Examining Inflation Expectations within Asian Economies: Application of Wavelet Quantile Analysis towards Assessing Monetary Policy Credibility

The relevance of rational expectations has generated a renewed interest in assessing the accuracy of monetary policy declarations. Despite the enduring principles of the rational expectations theory, a remarkably dependable central bank can alleviate inflation by skillfully managing inflation expectations, thus avoiding adverse effects on employment. This paper explores the complex relationship between inflation expectations, target inflation rates, and the credibility of monetary policy, emphasizing the importance of rule compliance and transparent communication for establishing public confidence in central banks. While the estimation processes the study utilizes wavelet-based quantile regression by investigating data from 1990q1 to 2021q4, with variations across selected countries. The credibility index (CI) is employed to instrument the dependability of monetary policies. Nevertheless, the results of this study indicate that Policy credibility has a significant impact on inflation expectations in Bangladesh and Sri Lanka, underscoring the importance of clear communication and institutional reforms. Different outcomes in India and considerable effects in Pakistan underscore the necessity of customized policy measures and communication strategies to address inflation and promote economic stability in South Asia.

Trend Behavior of Malaysia Consumer Price Index: Evidence from National Database (2003–2022)

The Consumer Price Index (CPI) is a general indicator used to measure price changes over time. The Malaysia CPI is published using a base year of 2010. This study aimed to identify the significant trend behavior in the Malaysia CPI series for the period 2003–2022. The main question of the paper is whether there exists any difference in trends between the main and overall CPI variables? If so, is the difference significant? If so, how strong or weak is the magnitude of its trend? This is analyzed empirically through five statistical analysis methods involving the serial correlation analysis, Mann–Kendall test, Mann–Kendall sequential test, Sen’s-T test, and Sen’s estimator. Overall, we conclude that there is a significant upward trend for 11 of the 13 variables, while two variables, which are Transportation and Communication, showed no significant monotonic trend. The results of this study provide insight into a better understanding of the behavioral trends of the CPI in Malaysia. This study can help policymakers to understand the importance of increasing expenditure into certain sectors in order to have better production and with this implementation, the trend of inflation rate can be better understood.

Analysing the Factors Behind Exchange Rate Fluctuations in India

Abstract: The study gives an overview of the various determinants of the exchange rate movements in India. Out of the multiple factors affecting the Rupee-Dollar value the impact of Interest rate differential, Trade deficit of India, Foreign Net investment inflows to India, Oil prices, and Gold prices (in the short term) on the exchange rate has been studied using Regression analysis and correlation and the role they played by the above mentioned variables in determining the exchange rate during the Global Financial Crisis of 2008-2010 and during the Covid-19 Period from 2020-2023. Exchange rate fluctuations play a crucial role in shaping the economy of a country, and India is no exception. The exchange rate of the Indian rupee against major world currencies is subject to constant fluctuations, influenced by a multitude of domestic and global factors. These fluctuations have significant implications for various stakeholders, including businesses, consumers, investors, and policymakers. Several factors contribute to the exchange rate fluctuations in India. One of the primary factors is the demand and supply dynamics of foreign exchange. Factors such as trade balance, foreign direct investments, portfolio investments, remittances impact the demand for and supply of foreign currency, Crude oil prices, Gold prices, and thereby affecting the exchange rate. In addition, macroeconomic variables like inflation, interest rates, and economic growth also play a crucial role in determining exchange rate movements. For instance, a high inflation rate in India compared to trading partner countries can lead to a depreciation of the rupee. Global economic conditions and geopolitical events are other significant factors influencing exchange rate fluctuations in India. Economic developments in major trading partners, changes in global commodity prices, and geopolitical tensions can all impact investor sentiment and capital flows, leading to fluctuations in the exchange rate. For example, uncertainties related to Brexit or trade tensions between major economies can trigger volatility in currency markets. Monetary policy decisions by the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) also play a crucial role in influencing exchange rates. Interest rate changes, open market operations, and forex interventions by the central bank can impact the value of the rupee visa-vis other currencies. The RBI often intervenes in the foreign exchange market to stabilize the rupee or prevent extreme volatility. Apart from these factors, market speculation, investor sentiment, and technological advancements in the financial markets can also contribute to exchange rate fluctuations. High-frequency trading, algorithmic trading, and the use of complex financial instruments by market participants can amplify exchange rate movements and increase volatility

Does Interest Rate Impact Economic Growth? Empirical Insight from Nepal

Background: The relationship between interest rates, inflation, and non-performing loans on economic growth is debated in theoretical and empirical research. Hence, the study examines the effect of interest rate, inflation rate, and non-performing loans on the economic growth in Nepal. Methods: The paper incorporated quarterly data spanning nine years (2011-2019) and consisted of 972 observations. The study collected secondary data from the official websites of Nepal Rastra Bank and the Ministry of Finance, Nepal. The study used a panel cointegration test and random-effect models to examine the long-run relationship between predictor and response variables. Results: The impact of lending rate (LR) on economic growth is positive and statistically significant (β1 = 0.017, p < .01) in Nepal. Similarly, the coefficient of LNCPI (β2 = 0.687, p < .01) suggests that there is a positive relationship between the Consumer Price Index (CPI) and the Gross Domestic Product (GDP). The regression coefficient of CPI (β3 = -.001, p > .05) suggests that an increase in non-performing loans (NPL) led to a decrease in GDP. However, this relationship was not statistically significant for the Nepalese Economy. Conclusion: The study concludes that the interest and inflation rates positively affect Nepal's economic growth. The findings indicate that policymakers, such as Nepal Rastra Bank, should maintain interest rates at an appropriate level. Novelty: This study is novel because it thoroughly analyzes numerous observations over long periods to investigate the impacts of loan rates, inflation rates, and non-performing loans on economic growth in Nepal, improving its generalizability.

Investor attention and consumer price index inflation rate: Evidence from the United States

Explaining and forecasting inflation are important and challenging tasks because inflation is one focus of macroeconomics. This paper introduces novel investor attention to the field of inflation for the first time. Specifically, the Granger causality test, vector autoregression (VAR) model, certain linear models, and several statistical indicators are adopted to illustrate the roles of investor attention in explaining and forecasting inflation. The empirical results can be summarized as follows. First, investor attention is the Granger cause of the inflation rate and has a negative impact on inflation. Second, predictive models that incorporate investor attention can significantly outperform the commonly used benchmark models in inflation forecasting for both short and long horizons. Third, the robustness checks show that updating investor attention or the model specification does not change the conclusion of the crucial role of investor attention in explaining and forecasting inflation. Finally, this paper proves that investor attention influences inflation through inflation expectations. In summary, this paper demonstrates the importance of investor attention for macroeconomics, as investor attention affects inflation.

What drives the real estate market? Could behavioral indicators be useful in house pricing models?

PurposeThe objective of this paper is to examine the determinants of the Greek house market during the period 2006–2022 using not only economic variables but also behavioral variables, taking advantage of available information on the volume of Google searches. In order to quantify the behavioral variables, we implement a Python code using the Pytrends 4.9.2 library.Design/methodology/approachIn our study, we assert that models relying solely on economic variables, such as GDP growth, mortgage interest rates and inflation, may lack precision compared to those that integrate behavioral indicators. Recognizing the importance of behavioral insights, we incorporate Google Trends data as a key behavioral indicator, aiming to enhance our understanding of market dynamics by capturing online interest in Greek real estate through searches related to house prices, sales and related topics. To quantify our behavioral indicators, we utilize a Python code leveraging Pytrends, enabling us to extract relevant queries for global and local searches. We employ the EGARCH(1,1) model on the Greek house price index, testing several macroeconomic variables alongside our Google Trends indexes to explain housing returns.FindingsOur findings show that in some cases the relationship between economic variables, such as inflation and mortgage rates, and house prices is not always consistent with the theory because we should highlight the special conditions of the examined country. The country of our sample, Greece, presents the special case of a country with severe sovereign debt issues, which at the same time has the privilege to have a strong currency and the support and the obligations of being an EU/EMU member.Practical implicationsThe results suggest that Google Trends can be a valuable tool for academics and practitioners in order to understand what drives house prices. However, further research should be carried out on this topic, for example, causality relationships, to gain deeper insight into the possibilities and limitations of using such tools in analyzing housing market trends.Originality/valueThis is the first paper, to the best of our knowledge, that examines the benefits of Google Trends in studying the Greek house market.

Central Bank Independence, Inflation and Money Growth: Evidence from South Africa

Purpose: This article evaluates the impact of the de jure independence of the South African Reserve Bank (SARB) on the credibility and discipline of domestic monetary policy. Credibility captures the extent to which economic agents trust the SARB to pursue its price stability mandate and is measured by the relationship between the SARB’s independence and domestic inflation. Discipline relates to the effect of independence on money growth rates, while independence is associated with a more disciplined central bank and moderate money growth rates. Methodology: A simple autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) econometric specification and Granger causality tests are employed. Following the extant empirical literature, existing indexes of central bank independence (CBI) are regressed on annual rates of inflation and M2 money growth. Findings: A statistically significant negative relationship is established between both i) CBI and inflation and ii) CBI and money growth for the South African economy. This suggests that the SARB’s legal independence plays an important role in containing inflation (credibility) and limiting excessive money growth (discipline). Contribution: This article fills a gap in the extant literature by being the first attempt at formalising the empirical link between de jure CBI, inflation, and the rate of money growth in the South African economy.

Effects of Exchange Rate Variability on Coffee Export Growth in Tanzania

Exchange rate movement is perceived as a very important factor in influencing the performance of the agriculture sector. When the currency of the exporting country depreciates against the trading partners’ currencies tends to stimulate demand and improve export earnings. An increase in value of the currency against the other trading partners’ currencies (e.g. USD) tend to affect the costs of production that may affect aggregate agricultural supply. However, the linkage of the exchange rate and agricultural export growth in particular traditional exports such as coffee has never been properly and intensively documented for appropriate decision-making in Tanzania. Therefore, this study was set to assess how exchange rate variability has affected coffee export growth in Tanzania. The study made use of time series data from 1991 to 2022 using the vector error collection model (VECM). Given the influences other than the real effective exchange rate on the export of coffee growth, we discriminately incorporated inflation rate, discount rate, and money supply, as the independent variables. Yearly data (1991-2022) obtained from the Bank of Tanzania and the International Coffee Organization were used for the analysis. The results from this study reveal that the real effective exchange rate has an enormous positive impact on coffee export growth in the long run. This implies that, the depreciation of the domestic currency against USD has advantage on coffee export growth when considering the demand side as it tends to stimulate coffee demand in the rest of the world, thus leading to an increase in export volume and revenue which helps to foster coffee export growth. However, in the supply side, this depreciation should be carefully monitored as excess depreciation may end up by rising inputs prices especially those inputs imported such as fertilizers, agrochemical, aggrotech and agro machineries that may intern affect the production level. The study ends by concluding, that it is imperative for the Central Bank to carefully observer exchange rate fluctuations and implement appropriate monetary policy strategies in favour of the agriculture sector in particular exportable crops such as coffee. This will help to manage the risks and opportunities that may arise in coffee export growth associated with currency movement.

The Impact of Russia-Ukraine War on Bangladesh’s Economy: A Supply Chain Perspective and Way Forward

Bangladesh’s economy is facing significant challenges restricting from the Russia-Ukraine conflict, intensified by its status as an oil-importing nation vulnerable to global oil price fluctuations. This study addresses the current perspectives and challenges which include inflationary pressures, trade imbalances, and disruptions in the supply chain, leading to increased expenditures for essential commodities. This research was developed through a systematic literature review based on secondary data, including online databases, journals, and review papers, etc. This exploratory study reveals that policymakers need to diversify energy sources, forge new trade partnerships, and implement measures to bolster economic resilience. The economic fallout from the conflict, surpassing the actual war in cost, has depleted the central bank's reserves, prompting austerity measures. The forex market experiences volatility, contributing to high trade deficits and the highest inflation rate in recent years. Bangladesh must address forex management challenges and formulate prudent policies for economic recovery. The conflict has disrupted global commodity markets, leading to inflationary pressures and increased costs for businesses in Bangladesh, especially larger organizations handling rising raw material costs and weak consumer demand. The rationale of this paper is to evaluate the literature on this aspect and apprehend the global demand, and supply of food and commodities, economic impacts in Bangladesh, challenges in global trade, trade relations, currency fluctuations, inflation, emergency price, and its consequences, recognize gaps and advocate future research itineraries. The paper offers a synopsis and appraisal of the overall economy of Bangladesh and finally navigates a way forward to the policymakers which would unlock further research to develop this sector.

The Efficacy of Developments in Agriculture and Industry Sectors on Economic Growth in Turkey: ARDL Approach

One of the oldest economic goals of societies around the world is to increase the welfare level of the society. For this reason, the phenomenon of economic growth has been one of the most studied subjects since history. In this work, the efficacy of production in Turkey's agricultural and industrial sectors on economic growth amongst 1980 and 2022 has been investigated. In addition, inflation and trade deficit data are included as control variables. ARDL bounds test was implemented in the work. Accordingly the outcomes of the work, in the first model, when the share of the agricultural sector in GNP increases by 1%, per capita income decreases by approximately 1.13%. A 1% increment in the inflation rate diminishes per capita income by approximately 0.18%. In the second model, the margin of the industrial sector in GNP has an affirmative efficacy on per capita income. The inflation rate, conversely, has a negatory efficacy on per capita income. When the share of the industrial sector increases by 1%, per capita income increases by approximately 4.5%. A 1% increment in the inflation rate diminishes per capita income by approximately 0.5%. The parameters related to international trade deficit are statistically insignificant.

Analyzing the Impact of Exchange Rates on Trade Performance in Tanzania: A VECM Approach

This paper investigates the relationship between exchange rates and trade performance in Tanzania using a Vector Error Correction Model (VECM) analysis. The background discusses the importance of exchange rates in international trade and how fluctuating exchange rates can impact trade performance. The methodology section explains the research design, model specification, and estimation techniques employed, such as unit root tests, co-integration analysis, and VECM. The findings highlight a long-run positive relationship between exchange rates, foreign direct investment, GDP, and labor forces with trade performance, while inflation rate shows a negative impact. Granger causality tests reveal causal relationships between different variables and trade performance. The conclusions suggest policy recommendations for the government to enhance trade performance through fiscal and monetary policies and encourage further research in the field.

The Effect of Financial Development on Inflation Rate in Rwanda

A well-developed financial system plays an important role in the economic performance of a country. Thus, the role of financial development and its functions in stimulating economic performance is concrete. However, the economy of Rwanda has experienced an accelerated inflation rate in recent times. The study adopted an ex post facto design to ascertain the effect of financial development on the inflation rate in Rwanda over a period of 12 years. Time series data were collected from 2011-2022. Ordinary Least Squares (OLS) were also adopted. The findings revealed that financial liberalization, domestic credit to the private sector, monetary policy rate, market capitalization, and all share indexes jointly did not influence the inflation rate in Rwanda (Adj.R2 = 14.39%, p = 0.3524 > 0.05, F-stat = 1.3699). The study concluded that financial development did not affect the inflation rate in Rwanda during the period under review. The study recommends that the government of Rwanda should improve on financial development through improving macroeconomic factors such as liberalization of the financial sector and strengthening the channels of credit to the private sector.

Analisis Pengaruh Inflasi dan Suku Bunga Terhadap Return on Asset (ROA) pada Perusahaan Manufaktur Sub Sektor Kayu

The aim of this research is to analyze the influence of Inflation and Interest Rates on Return on Assets (ROA) with the Rupiah Exchange Rate as an Intervening Variable in Manufacturing Companies in the Wood and Processing Sub Sector Listed on the IDX. In this research, the path analysis method was used with the Warp PLS software version 4.0.The research results (1) inflation has a significant effect on the rupiah exchange rate; (2) interest rates do not have a significant effect on the rupiah exchange rate; (3) inflation has no significant effect on ROA; (4) interest rates have no significant effect on ROA; (5) the rupiah exchange rate has no significant effect on return on assets (ROA); (6) inflation has no significant effect on ROA through the rupiah exchange rate as an intervening variable; (7) interest rates have no effect on ROA through the rupiah exchange rate as an intervening variable.

Determinant factors of gross domestic product (GDP) in Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) member countries

Background The gross domestic product (GDP) of Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) member states can be used to determine their overall economic growth. In order to increase GDP, all emerging nations in Southeast Asia are stating to depend on foreign direct investment (FDI), the tourism industry, international visitors visiting ASEAN member nations banking credit, and low inflation rates. High inflation is a problem that developed and developing countries will definitely face. One of the problems faced by ASEAN member countries is that most of the member countries are in the developing country category. For ASEAN member countries, high inflation levels will encourage economic instability. GDP is less than optimal because of these classic problems in developing countries so that economic growth is not as planned. The ASEAN Economic Community (AEC), which ASEAN established, is seen as a way to reduce unemployment, alleviate poverty by boosting the travel and tourism industry and increasing investment, as well as to offer or distribute credit to businesses at low interest rates in order to boost GDP. The purpose of this study is to investigate and analyze how the GDP of ASEAN member nations is affected by FDI, foreign visitors, bank credit, and inflation. s: We analyzed panel data for seven ASEAN members from 2002 to 2020. FDI, foreign tourists, banking credit, and inflation are the research factors examined as independent variables that have an impact on GDP, the dependent variable. Results The study’s findings indicate that while inflation has a large negative impact on GDP, FDI, foreign tourism, and bank credit have a considerable positive impact on GDP. Conclusions FDI, foreign tourists, bank credit, and inflation have a significant influence on GDP in ASEAN member countries.

Pengaruh Penentu Kompleksitas Struktur Modal Perusahaan Sektor Pertambangan Bursa Efek Indonesia

This study aims to determine the determinants of capital structure complexity in the mining sector listed on the Indonesia Stock Exchange (IDX) for the 2017-2021 period. In this study, the factors that determine the complexity of capital structure include indicators of asset structure, company size, profitability, inflation, and interest rates, while the complexity of capital structure includes indicators of the size of the number of capital sources and the level of concentration of capital sources. The number of samples was 52 mining companies collected using purposive sampling technique. This study uses quantitative data obtained from data listed on the Indonesian Stock Exchange (IDX) and the World Bank portal, and uses panel data regression analysis techniques. The findings show that only asset structure has a significant positive influence on the complexity of capital structure, which is measured by the number of capital sources and the concentration of capital sources. Meanwhile, the variables of firm size, profitability, interest rate and inflation have no significant influence on the complexity of capital structure in mining companies.