Effect of Inflation Rate on government bond yields listed at the Nairobi Securities Exchange.

Abstract

This study aimed to determine the effect of inflation rates on government bond yields listed on the Nairobi Securities Exchange (NSE). The primary objective was to assess how fluctuations in inflation impact the yields of 15-year government bonds over a 16-year period, from the first quarter of 2007 to the first quarter of 2023. The study applied liquidity premium theory, as posited by Brennan (1979), which suggests that investors require a liquidity premium, or higher yield, during inflationary periods to compensate for the erosion of purchasing power in fixed-income investments. Given this theoretical framework, the research sought to quantify the relationship between inflation rates and bond yields, considering how rising inflation prompts higher yields to maintain purchasing power.The study employed a causal-comparative research design, utilizing secondary data on bond yields and inflation rates sourced from NSE and Central Bank of Kenya records. Key diagnostic tests, such as the Jarque-Bera test for normality, Breusch-Pagan-Godfrey test for heteroscedasticity, and Augmented Dickey-Fuller test for stationarity, ensured data validity and reliability. The Vector Error Correction Model (VECM) was used to analyze both short- and long-term relationships between inflation and bond yields. Findings revealed a statistically significant positive correlation between inflation rates and government bond yields, with inflation accounting for 45% of the variance in bond yields. The standardized coefficient of 0.67 suggested a moderate-to-strong association, highlighting inflation’s critical role in bond pricing. Based on these results, it is recommended that investors and policymakers closely monitor inflation trends as they influence bond yields and market performance. Further research could explore other macroeconomic factors, such as interest rates, to offer a more comprehensive view of bond market dynamics in emerging economies.