ОВДП ЯК ІНСТРУМЕНТ ВПЛИВУ НА МОНЕТАРНЕ ТА ФІСКАЛЬНЕ РЕГУЛЮВАННЯ В УКРАЇНІ

Abstract

The article is devoted to the study of the impact of domestic government loan bonds on the mechanisms of monetary and fiscal state regulation in Ukraine. The relevance of this study was to investigate how government bonds affect the instruments of fiscal and monetary policy, as well as to find out how promising the development of the government bond market in Ukraine is, especially in the current conditions of crisis and instability. The object of the study is the processes of influence of domestic government loan bonds on the mechanism of monetary regulation in Ukraine. The subject of the study is the theoretical and methodological provisions for determining the impact of domestic government loan bonds on monetary and fiscal policy in Ukraine. The current state of the DGLB market in Ukraine was investigated and the main factors affecting the formation of demand for these securities were determined. The dynamics of the weighted average yield of hryvnia government bonds over the past five years were also analyzed and the main factors affecting its dynamics were identified. Using Pearson correlation coefficient, the value was calculated and the correlation between the yield of government bonds and the value of the discount rate of the National Bank of Ukraine was determined, the value of the coefficient indicates the existence of a strong direct correlation between these indicators. The next step was to determine the role of the yield of DGLB in the mechanism of monetary regulation, and based on this a cycle was modelled which begins with a change in the discount rate, passes through a change in the demand for DGLB, and ends when the rate of inflation changes under the influence of previous factors. Thus, it was proven that with an unchanged supply of foreign currency, due to the increase in demand for hryvnia government bonds from non-residents, the rate of inflation slows down. Also, forecasting of the yield of government bonds was carried out using a one-factor regression equation, taking as a basis the data of the discount rate forecasted by the National Bank. The last element of the study was the determination of the correlation between the dynamics of DGLB yields and the hryvnia to US dollar exchange rate. Based on the analysis, the value of the Pearson correlation coefficient between these indicators was calculated for different values of time lags, and it was determined that the coefficient reaches its highest value with a time lag of 10 months.