Inflation Research Articles

Rediscovering Christian Culture and Spirituality in the Fluid Reality of Europe

This article points to the plight of man in the 21st century and his intimidating spiritual and axiological confusion. The 2020 COVID pandemic, the 2022 war in Ukraine and high economic inflation have exposed the lack of stable ethical values and lasting references for Europe. On the one hand, many EU citizens live today in uncertainty and fear, falling in line with populist slogans, and on the other hand, strong xenophobic and fundamentalist currents have emerged in the Catholic Church. Europe is arguably not so much in need of a return to over-institutionalized Christianity, but rather of a search for new forms and systems that would express the ideas of Jesus of Nazareth in innovative ways. Postmodernity with its characteristic elements, i.e., pluralization, mercantilization and rapid change, seem to be completely incompatible with the conventionally accepted Christian understanding of God, the concept of man and the world around him. Therefore, this is a great challenge to all Christian theologians.

Keanekaragaman Arthropoda Permukaan Tanah Pada Pertanaman Bawang Merah (Allium ascalonicum L.) Pada Lahan Gambut yang Diaplikasikan Kulit Jengkol

Shallots are a spice commodity that is very important in everyday life. Shallots are one of the commodities that greatly influence the level of economic inflation. This commodity experienced a decline in production of 101%. In 2017 it could produce 28,456 quintals while in 2018 it produced 14,155 quintals. This can be caused by several things that exist in the environment around the plantation. This research aims to determine the diversity of arthropods in Allium ascalonicum shallot plantings. This research was carried out from October - to December 2021 on Tegal Arum Village Land, Banjarbaru City. The research method uses an exploration method carried out directly at the location of the shallot trap plantation and treated with jengkol (Archidendron pauciflorum) skin powder using a Pitfall ground surface trap. The calculation results of the traps installed trapped 239 arthropods belonging to 5 orders, Coleoptera, Orthoptera, Hymenoptera, Dermaptera, and Araneae.

Nghiên cứu thực nghiệm các yếu tố tác động đến rủi ro phá sản của ngân hàng thương mại cổ phần tại Việt Nam

The research aims to identify the factors affecting the bankruptcy risk of the joint-stock commercial banks (JSCB) in Vietnam in the period 2010-2021. The research uses regression methods for panel data with a sample of 30 commercial banks, using secondary data collected from audited financial statements of banks. Through the system GMM (SGMM) method for panel data, the results show the operating expenses (OE), inflation (INF) have the impact on the bankruptcy risk. In addition, the combining research results after the robustness check of R language and SGMM also show that the size of commercial banks (SIZE) and return on assets (ROA) have an opposite impact on the risk of bankruptcy. These suggest important policy implications for commercial banks in Vietnam in controlling bankruptcy risks, ensuring to curb the uncertainty of the commercial banks in Vietnam.

Causes and Impact of Sino-US Trade Confliction and US Inflation

One of the primary areas of ongoing research concerns the trade tensions between the United States and China, and the trend towards trade decoupling between these two nations. Scholars are increasingly examining the evolution of this trade dispute, its impact on the Chinese market, and the policy responses that the Chinese government should adopt. However, there remains a research gap with regards to the impact of trade tensions between the US and China on domestic inflation in the US, as well as the ability of the US government to take appropriate countermeasures. To examine the influence of US-China trade tensions on US inflation, this paper examines macroeconomic and microeconomic data from the last five years. It summarizes the local irrationalities stemming from the current inflation issue, looking at the government’s, society’s, and people’s livelihoods’ perspectives, and investigates viable measures from government, enterprise, and personal financial perspectives. It is hoped that this study will aid the expansion of Sino-US trade and the successful alleviation of the inflation crisis in the United States, while also broadening the perspectives of future scholars.

The nexus between resource depletion, price fluctuations, and sustainable development in expenditure on resources

The recent Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) proposals are expected to take a number of measures. These include financial incentives to improve energy efficiency, reduce pollution and increase the climate resilience of households. Furthermore, the use of natural resources (NTR) is critical in driving energy demand in industry and households. However, NTRs also play an important role in increasing carbon emissions (CO2), which can lead to various diseases. Healthcare (HLT) has complex issues such as rising costs due to inflation (INF), stalled improvements in population-wide outcomes, stalled access due to clinical staff shortages, and COVID-19 intensify. Therefore, this study aimed to investigate the effects of NTR, CO2, and INF on HLT. In addition, this study also considers short-term and long-term volatility and does so by employing an asymmetric (non-linear) ARDL model. Application of NARDL resulted in positive shocks to NTR, INF, and CO2 that increased HLT, whereas negative shocks to NTR, INF, and CO2 decreased HLT. Based on the findings, it is recommended that there is an urgent need to identify measures that can be taken to utilize the NTR best and facilitate the sustainable efforts being promoted by the IRA.

Entrepreneurship: A Potential Tool to Combat Inflation

The risks that inflation poses to economic growth and stability call for creative solutions. In this essay, we look at how entrepreneurship might help ease economic inflation. The role of entrepreneurs in fostering economic expansion, more employment opportunities, and higher output is explored. The article examines the role of entrepreneurship in promoting innovation, which in turn can lead to the creation of new products and services that improve competition and hence alleviate inflationary pressures. The importance of free markets in containing inflation is also emphasised, with an emphasis placed on the role played by entrepreneurial spirit in fostering an environment where prices are kept low. This article looks at how higher production and more effective resource allocation- both results of entrepreneurship's impact on the supply side of the economy- help keep inflation in check. Case studies of prosperous businesses that had a beneficial effect on inflation dynamics are used to examine the feasibility of entrepreneurship as a response to high inflation rates. Sensitivity to business cycles, risk and failure, market concentration, and access to financing are only some of the issues that are critically discussed in the context of employing entrepreneurship as a strategy to combat inflation.

Belief-dependent pricing decisions

How do inflation and idiosyncratic cost expectations affect firms’ price-adjusting decisions? Evidence on micro price adjustment has emphasized that price changes follow a fixed adjustment schedule, i.e., time-dependent pricing, or that they respond to the state of the economy, i.e., state-dependent pricing. We use firm expectation survey data to argue that price-adjustment decisions are also belief-dependent. While controlling for time- and state-dependent factors, we find that for the decision to adjust prices, inflation expectations do not play any role, but firms’ beliefs about their overall costs do. This highlights a robust correlation between idiosyncratic expectations and economic decisions. We show that the expectation channel is heterogeneous across firms and operates with a delay. When studying firms’ expected magnitude of price changes, the relevance of current inflation expectations is recovered apart from costs. Our findings provide empirical support for the belief-driven nature of pricing decisions and their economic implications.

Determinant of credit risk of Islamic banks in Pakistan

This study aims to investigate the influence of macroeconomic variables and bank-specific factors on the credit risk of Islamic banking in Pakistan, through the panel data regression tools. The statistical tool which is applied to the research is ordinary least square (OLS) regression model. All the assumption to be fulfilled before using OLS. The secondary data have been taken from four (04) full-fledged Islamic banks in Pakistan, from 2007 to 2021. The focus of the research is to find the impact of macroeconomic variables like Gross domestic product, inflation, and growth in the interest rate and bank-specific factors like size, return on assets, loan loss provision, capital Adequacy ratio, and Asset quality to determine the credit risk (non-performing loans) of Islamic banks in Pakistan. The result of the ordinary least square (OLS) regression model is that loan loss provisions (LLP) have a positive and significant impact on credit risk (CR) and size of bank (S), and Capital adequacy ratio (CAR) have a negative and significant impact on credit risk (CR) of Islamic Bank of Pakistan. Inflation (INF) and Gross domestic product (GDP) have a positive and insignificant impact on credit risk (CR), and growth in interest rate (INT), return on assets (ROA), and asset quality (AQ) has a negative and insignificant impact on Credit risk (CR) of Islamic Bank of Pakistan. Therefore, Islamic banks should carefully examine their specific factors, i.e. LLP, S, and CAR to manage their credit risk, particularly in monitoring loans.

ANALYSIS OF MACROECONOMIC INDICATORS AFFECTING FARMERS' EXCHANGE RATE IN SOUTH KALIMANTAN

This study aims to analyze the development and the influence in short- and long-term of macroeconomic indicators: inflation, interest rates, economic growth, average grain prices, open unemployment rate and also the farmer exchange rate on farmers' exchange rates (NTP) in South Kalimantan Province. The data used is quarterly data from 2010 to 2023. The development of various macroeconomic indicators was analyzed using descriptive analysis, while their impact was analyzed using the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) model. The results of the study show that those macroeconomic indicators are relatively fluctuating in line with the phenomenon that occurred in that period. Based on estimates with the ARDL(4,3,1,4,2,2) model in the short term, the NTP in the same quarter of the previous year, the average price of grain at the current time and at the time of the past six months, the current inflation, inflation of the past 3, 6, and 9 months, as well as the open unemployment rate of the past six months had a significant effect on α = 5% and 10%. In the long term, it shows that of those macroeconomic indicators do not have a significant effect on α=5% on farmer exchange rate in South Kalimantan.

Stress and depression among individuals with low socioeconomic status during economic inflation

Financial hardship has been associated with increased levels of stress and can potentially lead to poor mental health and mental disorders. This study seeks to explore the association between stress due to inflation and depression in the United States (US). We hypothesized that inflation caused higher stress which was associated with increased depression among US adults. The Census Household Pulse Survey (HPS) week 53 (January 4 – January 16, 2023), issued by US Census Bureau, comprises of survey data from randomly selected individuals across the nation with an approximately 6% response rate. The HPS survey includes 54,611 individuals, where nearly 75% of adults reported experiencing stress due to inflation. A significantly higher percentage of adults with stress reported depression (28.2% vs. 6.8%) compared to those without stress. When grouping individuals by socioeconomic status (SES), the association of stress with depression was more pronounced in the low SES group than those in the high SES group. These results suggest that stress has a stronger association with depression among individuals with lower SES status during periods of economic inflation. Our data indicate that interventions and support systems that address mental health issues related to stress may need to be tailored differently for individuals with varying socioeconomic backgrounds.

Impact of Exchange Rate Fluctuation on the Standard of Living in Nigeria

The study examined the effect of the exchange rate fluctuations on standard of living in Nigeria. The variables of gross domestic product per capita (GDPPC), per capital income and unemployment proxied standard of living while the explanatory variables were exchange rate (EXCR), Inflation (INF) Interest rate (INTR) and money supply secondary data was used covering between the period of 1990-2023. Unit root test were carried out to ascertain the stationarity of the variables the result of which Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) was used to estimate the parameters as they were integrated in the order of 0 and 1. The findings reveal that Exchange rate fluctuation has a significant long and short run relationship with the gross domestic product (GDP) per capita, per capita income and unemployment rate in Nigeria. The implication of this is that living standard in Nigeria is greatly influenced by the alterations in exchange rate. As such the study recommended amongst other things that Government should improve on the productive sector of the economy as the primary sector of the economy that produces the basic commodities used to produce goods and services thereby reducing unemployment and improving standard of living. They should strive to put in place positive economic reforms tailored towards enhancing the economic performance and reducing unfavorable impact of exchange rate fluctuations on the standard of living in Nigeria.

The impact of fiscal deficit on economic growth: An empirical study in selected MENA countries

The purpose of this article is to investigate how the fiscal deficit affects economic growth in five Middle Eastern and North African (MENA) countries: Bahrain, Algeria, Egypt, Morocco, and Jordan. These economies are bewildered by their high deficit levels, and their weak investment growth keeps them from achieving economic growth. This investigation, which spans the years 1995 through 2020, uses the ARDL (autoregressive distributed lag) methodology. The author selected four variables for this study: economic growth serves as the dependent variable, while the set of independent variables includes economic growth (GDPG), gross fixed capital formation as a percentage of GDP (GFCF), deficit as a percentage of GDP (DEFICIT), and inflation (INF). The long-run results showed that there is a negative link between economic growth and deficit; however, a positive relationship existed between inflation and economic growth. Gross fixed capital formation did not show any significant relationship with economic growth in the long run. In the short run, the results showed that inflation has a negative relationship with economic growth. The remaining variables, deficit, and gross fixed capital formation did not show a significant relationship with economic growth.

Changes in Macroeconomic Variables and Financial Performance of Nigerian Deposit Money Banks

This study examined how changes in macroeconomic variables impact financial performance of Nigerian banks from 2010 till 2021 using panel data and estimated utilising panel regression analysis and descriptive analysis. The multiple regression model used Real GDP Growth (RGDPG), lagged Real GDP Growth (RGDPG (-1), Inflation (INF), Exchange Rate (EXR), Interest Rate (PLR), Money Supply Growth (GMS), and Liquidity Ratio (LIQ) as proxies of macroeconomic variables and as independent variables while financial performance, captured by both asset and equity returns (ROA) and (ROE) were dependent variables. With the exception of INF plus RGDPG, the panel regression analysis results showed that changes in most of the macroeconomic variables have negative and significant impacts on the financial performance of Nigerian banks. RoA and RoE are negatively and negligibly impacted by real GDP, whereas both RoA and RoE are positively and negligibly impacted by inflation. The research recommended that when creating and putting into practice strategic plans, Nigerian banks should consider how macroeconomic conditions may affect their operations and financial performance. Furthermore, banks are encouraged to be involved in the development of any policies that may affect their operations.

Time series-based Project Cost Forecasting Framework

Current inflation rates have significantly been increasing construction project costs globally. Thus, it is crucial to consider potential inflationary trends when estimating the cost at completion of prolonged projects. However, the absence of literature providing guidance on analyzing inflation trends and adjusting the ongoing project cost performance factor is a gap that needs filling. This study proposes a framework for estimating ongoing project costs based on trend and seasonality analysis of the project cost performance through the Holt-Winters method. The proposed framework also incorporates the estimation of project completion time and is applied to a real case study to assess its efficacy. The results are compared with the ones obtained through pre-existing index-based methods. This paper seeks to improve the accuracy of project cost estimation and management in challenging and uncertain economic environments by providing an alternative to the traditional cost at completion forecasting approach.

Monetary Policy Press Releases of 24 Inflation Targeting Central Banks – A Comparison of their Key Features and Complexity

Abstract This paper describes the process of constructing a dataset of available online press releases related to monetary policy decisions published by central banks that have been pursuing a form of inflation targeting. A total of 3,807 documents were considered, as the review encompasses 24 central banks over the past 30 years. To prepare the dataset for text-mining analysis, a cleaning procedure has been performed, which is also presented in detail. The next step was to look at the readability of the documents in order to detect any patterns in its changes. We find that while there is a significant variation between central banks, there is no clear time trend in the readability of the monetary policy press releases, i.e. some central banks tend to have easier-to-read press releases than others, and this does not change with time. In turn, there is a weak indication that following the Global Financial Crisis outbreak and the European Sovereign Debt Crisis apogee, as well as at the time of withdrawing unconventional measures introduced in response to those two emergencies, press releases of advanced economy inflation targeters got temporarily harder-to-read. Overall, this paper can be viewed as a first attempt towards assessing qualitatively central banks’ transparency, with respect to a flagship communication tool of inflation targeters, namely their monetary policy press releases.

Variables and NEPSE Index

In the context of Nepal, this study investigates the long- and short-term factors that affect inflation with monthly time series data of fiscal year 2016/17 to 2021/22 (70 observations) employing the ARDL bounds test and error correction technique of econometric analysis. In order to identify the order of integration, the stationary of all variables were investigated by running PP test. Variables are found to be stationary at level I (0) and first I (1) difference. In this study NEPSE Index (NI) is the dependent variable and Interest Rate (IR), Broad Money Supply (MS), Exchange Rate (ER) and Inflation (INF) are the independent variables. The study shown that Exchange rate(ER), Interest Rate(IR) Broad Money Supply (MS) and is must significant with NEPSE Index (NI). Where as there is insignificant relationship between NEPSE Index (NI) and Inflation (INF) in short run. These results imply that the short-term success of Nepal's Stock market strategy depends on managing interest rate, exchange rate and reducing imports from India, increasing foreign reserve and consistent political scenario as well.

Analysis of the coefficient of unpredictable costs in the construction industry in Slovakia

The main vision of the article is how the current situation in the construction industry affects the cost of construction equipment in Slovakia, because during the implementation, unforeseen costs enter the costs, which are not foreseen in the planning. Current inflation in Slovakia is one of the highest in Europe. The methods used during the research were initial quantitative questionnaires. The output of these was processed using statistical methods and subsequently evaluated. The current situation requires considerable attention in the calculation of individual construction costs. As it is a very challenging process due to the unpredictable market situation in terms of inflation, the price of energy increases, which also causes the rise in the prices of materials and wages. The data obtained can be used by construction companies to calculate the construction equipment. Construction companies in Slovakia can apply the information obtained in the preparation of a quote for construction work that includes construction equipment.

RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN UNEMPLOYMENT AND INFLATION: IMPACT OF UNEMPLOYMENT AND INFLATION ON INDIA'S ECONOMIC GROWTH

Unemployment is a significant issue in modern India, as it is in many other countries around the world. The issue of joblessness in India is explored in this paper. This studys information is secondary data collected between 2010 and 2020. Unemployment (UNEMP) serves as the dependent variable, with Gross Domestic Product (MKTP) and Inflation (INF) serving as the independent variables. The findings show that due to increased uncertainty, inflation significantly negatively impacts economic performance in India. The use of a log of real GDP, the nature of the regression model applied, and the fact that the impact of human capital and physical capital has been controlled explain why unemployment has not significantly affected Indias real GDP. Indias economic performance has been dramatically boosted by the countrys physical and human capital investments. Human capital investment boosts labour force productivity, which in turn boosts output. In contrast, physical capital investment increases the amount of capital per unit of labour, which in turn can boost productivity per worker. As a result, productivity rises and the economy benefits. The leading causes of unemployment are the rapid increase in the worlds population, the dearth of available jobs, and the inefficiency of the public sector. Through its strategies and resources, the Indian government may seek to attract foreign investors to facilitate the modernization of Indias agriculture sector and the creation of new jobs in the private sector. KEYWORDS: GDP (MKTP), Inflation, Unemployment, Regression Analysis, Descriptive Statistics

Simultaneous Equation: The Case of Inflation & Rupiah Exchange Rate in Indonesia 2001-2022

This study aims to determine the relationship between inflation and the rupiah exchange rate in Indonesia in 2001-2022, using simultaneous equations through a two-stage least square (2SLS) approach. The method used in this study is simultaneous equation regression, in which the variables are interconnected. The data used in this study is Indonesian state data for 2001-2022, including inflation, exchange rates, interest rates, gross domestic product, and exports obtained from the Badan Pusat Statistik (BPS) Indonesia website. The results of the study based on the two-stage least square (2SLS), the simultaneous equation of inflation (INF), showed that the variable interest rate (R) and gross domestic product (GDP) had a significant effect on inflation (INF). In contrast, the exchange rate variable (ER) did not significantly affect inflation (INF). Simultaneously, the exchange rate (ER), interest rate (R), and gross domestic product (GDP) affected inflation (INF) because F (prob) was smaller from alpha = 5%. Then, in the exchange rate equation (ER), inflation variables (INF), money supply (M2) and exports (X) have a significant effect on the exchange rate. Simultaneously, Inflation (INF), money supply (M2), and exports (X) affect the exchange rate (ER) because F (prob) is smaller than alpha = 5%.

Energy shocks and inflation episodes in the UK

This paper explores the potential macroeconomic impacts of the recent episode of global energy shock in the UK economy. Unlike the Great Inflation in the 1970s, current inflation is likely to have limited impacts on the overall UK economy due to institutional changes, such as the weakening of collective wage bargaining, etc. As a result, we argue that the current episode of inflation requires limited interventions using monetary policies. A new macro-econometric forecasting model is developed for the UK economy to simulate counterfactual policy scenarios.