Inflation In Indonesia Research Articles

Analisis perbedaan pengaruh kebijakan suku bunga bank sentral terhadap inflasi di Indonesia

The purposes of this study are (1) to analyze the effect of the BI rate on inflation (2) to analyze the effect of the BI 7 day reverse repo rate on inflation (3) to analyze the different effects of the BI rate and the BI 7 day reverse repo rate on inflation. The method used in this study uses secondary data sourced from Bank Indonesia and the Central Bureau of Statistics of the Indonesian financial economy. The analysis of this study with vector autoregressive (VAR) using the Eviews 10 software program, results of the study analyzed that the difference in the influence of the central bank's interest rate policy on inflation in Indonesia, that the BI rate of interest on inflation had a positive and significant effect with a benchmark of 5% or 0.005%, the analysis on the BI 7 day reverse repo rate is not significant at the benchmark of 5% or 0.005% but has a positive effect in reducing inflation in Indonesia which reflects price stability as the final target of monetary policy. Keywords: BI rate, BI 7 day reverse repo rate, Inflation, Vector autoregressive (VAR)

The Impact of Farmer Exchange Rate on Inflation During Covid 19 in Indonesia

This study aims to determine the impact of farmer exchange rates on the rate of inflation in Indonesia during the Covid 19 period. The independent variable on farmer exchange rates consists of the exchange rate of forestry farmers, horticultural farms, and food crops, while the dependent variable is the inflation rate based on expenditure. The results showed that the exchange rate of plantation farmers had a positive and significant effect or had an impact on the inflation rate, the exchange rate of livestock farmers had a positive and significant effect or had an impact on the inflation rate, the exchange rate of horticultural farmers had a positive and significant effect or had an impact on the inflation rate, the exchange rate of crop farmers. food has a positive and significant effect or has an impact on the inflation rate.

PERAMALAN INFLASI DI INDONESIA: DYNAMIC MODEL AVERAGE

This research is to forecast inflation in Indonesia on a national scale. Forecasting use in samples and out of samples as research. Converting results using the Dynamic Dynamic Model can give results. The estimation results are carried out in the BVAR form. In forecasting using time series data for the period 2010 to 2019. Forecasting with the value of RMSE is selected in the IHK_SAND variable and another variable IHK_PROD is accepted; INF; CPI_BM; IHK_PALGBB; IHK_KES; IHK_TKJK; and IHK_MJMRT.

The Effect of Inflationary Process of Government Revenue and Debt on Inflation in Indonesia: An Ardl Bounds Test Approach

The objective of this paper is to examine the cause of inflation based on fiscal policy perspective where government fiscal policy on government revenue and debt is such an inflationary process, meaning that if these two variables do not controlled properly, they will lead to higher level of inflation. Using annual data from 1972 to 2016 and ARDL bounds test approach to process these data, the result of co integration shows that government revenue and debt are simulaneously have long run relationship. This result is supported with the long run and short run relation for each independent variable individually. In the short run and long run, government revenue has positive impact on inflation with lower impact in the long-run compared to the short-run. Furthermore government debt also shows positive impact on inflation both in the long run and short run with the impact in the long run is higher rather that in the short run. As local governments depend heavily on national government on their fiscal resources, this study is also important to local government because any decision of national government will affect to them.

Impact of climate change and Coronavirus Disease (COVID-19) on inflation in Indonesia

The novel coronavirus COVID-19 outbreak was first reported in Indonesia on March 2, 2020 and then it called for prevention. At the same time, emissions of carbon dioxide reported to have decreased that imply global climate change. Furthermore, the climate change due to a reduction in CO2 emissions during the COVID-19 pandemic affected the demand and supply side of goods and services which in turn had an impact on the economy. One of important indicators in macroeconomics is the inflation rate. Therefore, this study aims to examine the impact of climate change due to the reduction of CO2 emissions during the COVID-19 pandemic and Coronavirus disease on inflation and food inflation in Indonesia. This study uses time series daily data and analysis using Ordinary Least Squares (OLS). The result show that the number of COVID-19 cases has a negative effect on both inflation and food inflation, while the number of recovered cases has a positive effect on both dependent variables. The number of death is only significant to the inflation rate, but it is not significant to the food inflation. The variable of temperature as a proxy variable of climate change has negative influence to the food inflation, but it has not any effects to the inflation rate. In addition, the level of citizen compliance with physical distancing will determine the level of CO2 emission reduction.

Modeling of West Java inflation with Spatial Durbin Model (SDM)

Inflation in Indonesia, in general, can be caused by a combination of various factors, both in terms of demand, supply, and expectations. The contribution of each element that influences inflation is not always the same from time to time. Gordon (1997) explains the determinants of inflation from these three sides, namely demand, supply, and expectations. The importance of expectations in influencing increase was also stated earlier by Chopra (1985). In this study, spatial Durbin for panel data with fixed effects in modeling inflation in the West Java province. The results show that Minimum Work Wage, percentage of poor population, Gross Regional Domestic Product (GRDP), spatial lag of poor population, and spatial lag of GRDP have a significant influence on the Durbins panel spatial model. There is an adjacent regional effect on inflation in the West Java province based on the value of the lambda obtained. Based on the criteria R-square of 94.29%, it can be concluded that the SDM panel data model has an excellent performance in explaining the diversity of data. The AIC and BIC criteria also show that the SDM panel data model well applied in modeling Regency/City inflation in West Java province.

Causality of Dual System Monetary Policy to Inflation in Indonesia

The paradigm shift from a conventional economy to an Islamic economy has encouraged the development of Islamic finance. This development will change the direction of monetary policy, in which the Islamic monetary magnitude will more or less affect the achievement of inflation in the economy. This research aims to identify the causality of dual system monetary policy with inflation in Indonesia during the observation period. The research method used is descriptive quantitative. The data used are monthly data from January 2016 to November 2020. This study uses secondary data published by Bank Indonesia, OJK, BPS, and various literature that will be used to answer research questions. VECM is used to answer the causality between dual system monetary policy and inflation. From the model estimation results, it is found that there is only a one-way relationship between the dual system monetary policy (SBIS) and inflation. However, the cointegration test results show that there is a cointegration relationship between the dual system monetary policy variables and inflation. This indicates that the dual system monetary policy tends to short-term and long-term relationships.

Evolution strategies based coefficient of TSK fuzzy forecasting engine

Forecasting is a method of predicting past and current data, most often by pattern analysis. A Fuzzy Takagi Sugeno Kang (TSK) study can predict Indonesia's inflation rate, yet with too high error. This study proposes an accuracy improvement based on Evolution Strategies (ES), a specific evolutionary algorithm with good performance optimization problems. ES algorithm used to determine the best coefficient values on consequent fuzzy rules. This research uses Bank Indonesia time-series data as in the previous study. ES algorithm uses the popSize test to determine the number of initial chromosomes to produce the best optimal solution for this problem. The increase of popSize creates better fitness value due to the ES's broader search area. The RMSE of ES-TSK is 0.637, which outperforms the baseline approach. This research generally shows that ES may reduce repetitive experiment events due to Fuzzy coefficients' manual setting. The algorithm complexity may cost to the computing time, yet with higher performance.

STRATEGIC FOOD RISKS – CHILI’S AGROSYSTEM PERSPECTIVE

The prices of strategic food commodities, namely rice, red chili, chicken, beef, shallots, eggs, sugar, and cooking oil, are monitored to measure Indonesia's inflation in the food category. This study intended to explore the chili agrosystems as an essential Indonesian daily cuisine due to its perishable nature and its variably supply chain. The state-of-the-art approach from various research databases was used and supplemented with secondary data gathered from the related enterprise. The study revealed that food strategic web-based information systems on production, consumption, and price are under different authorities. Concerning the chili case, even though there was a production surplus, price fluctuation increasing the risk of lowering motivation to plant. The number of actors involved itemizes eight chili's supply chain main patterns. In conclusion, chili trade and freight margins favoured supply chain actors but not the farmer itself. The welfare of the farmers is not good condition. It is characterized by proxy indicators, the majority of which are only slightly more than 100. The situation creates a new risk of decreasing motivation in farming. Further study using manageable chili enterprise systems is required to bring farmers closer to end consumers and improve their welfare. Keywords: chili agrosystem, decision support system, enterprise system, strategic food, supply chain

World Oil Price Changes and Inflation in Indonesia: A Nonparametric Regression Approach

This study aims to investigate the effect of world oil price changes on inflation in Indonesia. We used a nonparametric regression approach that never been employed in previous studies, both domestically and internationally. This study shows that the second-order Epanechnikov kernel function is statistically significant in explaining the effect of world oil price changes on Indonesia's inflation. We found that the world oil price changes had a lower effect on Indonesia's inflation when its price below USD 100 per barrel, and its effect became higher when its price above USD 100 per barrel. These results have important implications for Bank Indonesia and Indonesia's government in response to the world oil price changes. The policies that aimed at reducing the effect of world oil price changes on inflation in Indonesia should consider the world oil price level.JEL Classification: A12, B26, C14, E31, F29, F62How to Cite:Darmawan, I., Siregar, H., Hakim, D.B., & Manurung, A.H.. (2021). World Oil Price Changes and Inflation in Indonesia: A Nonparametric Regression Approach. Signifikan: Jurnal Ilmu Ekonomi, 10(1), 161-176. https://doi.org/10.15408/sjie.v10i1.19010.

Inflation modeling in Indonesia using hybrid autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA)-neural network (NN)

One of the macroeconomic indicators to see the stability of a country’s economy is inflation. This study aims to model the value of monthly inflation in Indonesia from January 2003 to December 2019 using the ARIMA-NN hybrid. The data plot shows a non-linear pattern and trends, so that the differencing process is carried out and the model is built using ARIMA model. The best ARIMA model obtained is SARIMA (1,1,0)(0,1,1)12 with a Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) of 0.01134. Furthermore, ARIMA residuals that do not satisfy white noise and normality are modeled using NN. The best structure obtained of NN model is (3×2×1) with an RMSE of 0.023984. From the ARIMA and residual NN prediction results, the ARIMA-NN hybrid model is obtained to predict the value of monthly inflation in Indonesia for the next 12 months with the Mean Absolut Percentage Error (MAPE) value is 11.40873%. It means that the model result has high prediction accuracy.

ANALISIS PENGARUH TINGKAT KURS DAN SUKU BUNGA BANK INDONESIA DENGAN JUMLAH UANG BEREDAR, TERHADAP TINGKAT INFLASI DI INDONESIA

This study discusses the "Analysis of Effect of Bi Interest rates, Money Supply and Exchange Rate Against Inflation Rate In Indonesia Period 2012- 2020 ", aims to determine the effect of BI Rate, Money Supply, and the Exchange Rate on Inflation in Indonesia and using the error correction model Engle-Granger (ECM-EG). The results of this study indicate that theBI Rate has a positive and significant effect on the inflation rate in Indonesia. Meanwhile, money supply and exchange rate Rp/Us dollar have a positive and not significant effect on the rate of inflation in Indonesia.

Energy Poverty Impact on the Economics of Indonesia Using ARDL Approach

Energy poverty is a global threat to human development path. This study is about the cointegration relationship between energy poverty and the economy of Indonesia for the period of 1995 to 2014. Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) model and vector error correction model (VECM) were used in this study to study the cointegration and causality analysis. Unit root test and stability test were adopted to increase the reliability and accuracy of the model. The analysis shows that parity purchase power (PPP) has a positive relationship with inflation (INF) in both long-run and short-run. Result shows in long-run, the increment of 1% for both energy consumption (EC) and PPP will result -1.12% and 0.032% effect respectively towards inflation in Indonesia. While for 1% increase in energy consumption is expected to give 1.5297% increment on inflation in short-run cases. Granger causality test shows only unidirectional causality between parity purchase power and inflation in both the long-run and short-run. Energy consumption only shows unidirectional causality toward inflation in the long-run. Overall mean increase of PPP or EC has a single direction influence on the inflation rate. The study can aid policy planning in eradication energy poverty.

The Impact of BI Interest Rate and Amount of Money Supply on Inflation in Indonesia During 2017-2019

The economic progress of a country is surely influenced by its economic indicators. This indicator is an important thing to pay it attention. One of the economic indicators is inflation. Inflation will affect the economy aggregately. Due to the increase in inflation and inflation instability, it will indicate that the level of prices for goods and services in a country is high. In the end, this will have an impact on people's interest in buying these goods or using these services. Of course, the large impact will be sustainable on national income. Therefore, this study aims to analyze the effect of interest rates and the money supply on inflation in Indonesia in 2017-2019. The types of data used in this study are quantitative data and the data sources used are taken from BPS for the 2017-2019 period. .The final result of this study showed that based on the results of the analysis, it could be concluded that interest rates and the amount of money have an impact on inflation with a significance value of 0,000296. Meanwhile, the t-test results indicate that interest rates and the money supply have an impact on inflation, respectively, with values of significance are 0.0371 and 0.0286.

Does E-Money Affect Inflation In Indonesia

The purpose of this study aims to explain the effect of electronic money on inflation and how much influence it has on the Indonesian economy. In this study the authors used a quantitative approach. The variables used are inflation, electronic money, exchange rate, money supply (M1), and BI interest rate. Result: The previous money supply (LQMprev) and the interest rate (BI Rate) were the main factors affecting inflation. In this result, e-money and exchange rates are not the main components driving inflation. Based on SPPS processing using regression, e-money and exchange rates do not have a significant effect on inflation in Indonesia, but LQMprev has a significant effect on inflation. From the results of this study it is still too early to analyze the effect of e-money on inflation because it is still relatively new in Indonesia.

Does Inflation Reduce Air Pollution? Evidence from Indonesia

Inflation could likely cause devastating impacts where high inflation can harmful economic and social circumstances. However, only limited studies try to find the impact of inflation on the quality of air. The aim of this study is to investigate the empirical linkage between inflation and air pollution in Indonesia covering the period of 1981 until 2017 by using an error correction model (ECM) methodological approach. The result of study suggests that in the short run, higher inflation is causing the lower level of air pollution. Similarly, in the long run, higher inflation is also affecting the lower level of air pollution. While there are a lot of negative impacts of inflation in Indonesia, the finding in this study indicates a positive impact of inflation in Indonesia, which is higher inflation can reduce the air pollution. The results seem contradict with the target of central bank of Indonesia to have a low but positive rate of inflation. Based on the findings, the study suggests the policymakers in Indonesia to support a robust role of inflation stability in achieving targets related to the reduction of air pollution.

Efficiency analysis of red chili farming in Pidie Jaya Aceh

The application of production management is very important in farming, this is reflected in the farming of red chili as one of the contributing commodities to inflation in Indonesia. chili is a commodity that has the most fluctuating price movements, where the price indicator is a reference for a farmer in planting red chili, therefore a farmer must be able to determine the time and carry out production management, one of which is the efficiency of production factors where this efficiency ultimately affects the the amount of income received by farmers. The purpose of this study is to determine what factors affect production, factors that have been economically efficient and factors that affect income in the red chili farming in Pidie Jaya Regency. This study uses Cobb Douglas efficiency analysis and income analysis. The factors that influence the production of red chilli farming in Bandar Baru and Trienggadeng Districts in Pidie Jaya Regency consist of seeds, compost, NPK, urea, KCL, TSP, pesticides and labor where the magnitude of the influence of the variable reaches 94.9%. The efficiency of production factors, namely compost, and KCL are not efficient, so it needs to reduce production factors, while seeds, NPK, urea, TSP, pesticides and labor are not efficient so need the addition of production factors. The influence of the factors of the amount of production, the selling price of red chili and production costs to the income of the farming of red chili in the District of Bandar Baru and the District of Trienggadeng in the District of Pidie Jaya that is equal to 91.90%.

Analysis of the Influence of Interest Rate, Rupiah Exchange Value, Household Consumption, and Import on Inflation in Indonesia Period 2010.Q1 - 2018.Q4

This study aims to analyze the effect of the interest rest, the exchange rate of the rupiah, and imports on the inflation in Indonesia. The study used multiple regression equation by using secondary time series. Data from 2008.Q1-2018.Q4. The results showed that the interest rate of SBI, exchange rate of rupiah against US Dollar, private sector household consumption, and the total imports of Indonesia had a simultaneous impact on the inflation in Indonesia. However, partially only the interest rate of SBI and total imports of Indonesia had a significant impact on the inflation in Indonesia, respectivelyon the level ofα = 1% and α= 5%. These results mean that the increasing of interest rate of SBI and Indonesian import could impact the inflation rate in Indonesia. Based on the findings, the policy to control the inflation in Indonesia was Bank Indonesia as the holder of monetary policy needs to oversee the determination of business credit interest rate (micro, retail, and corporate), by commercial banks in order to maintain the rate on the stable and low levels. In addition, the government needs to compose the policy to reduce the dependence on imported goods by providing various facilities and incentives to increase the interest of entrepreneurs to invest in industries that produce imported substitute goods.

Inflation volatility as a phenomenon monetary-fiscal combination in Indonesia

Inflation is generally seen as a monetary phenomenon whose effective control is through the management of the money supply, interest rates, and exchange rates. Another opinion views inflation as a fiscal phenomenon that is controlled through the effectiveness of tax revenues and state expenditures and avoiding a budget deficit that triggers an increase in government external debt. This study aims to examine and analyze the volatility of inflation as a phenomenon monetary-fiscal combination in Indonesia. The analysis was carried out descriptively and quantitatively through the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) Model using secondary time series data from the 1st quarter of 2009 to the 2nd quarter of 2020. The results showed the dominance of the positive influence of interest rates from the monetary side and foreign debt from the fiscal side, as well as the ineffective role of tax revenue in reducing inflation in Indonesia. Bank Indonesia needs to streamline policies related to interest rate management in regulating the money supply. The government needs to make efforts to increase the effectiveness of tax revenues and state spending to minimize its foreign debt.

Analyzing Factors Affecting Indonesian Food Price Inflation

In the last decade, inflation in Indonesia dominantly influenced by volatile food (consists mostly of food commodities) and administered price, the core inflation has been relatively stable. The food contribution in the Living Cost Survey (SBH) has a substantial contribution in order to measuring the inflation. This paper aims to analyze empirical condition how the pattern of food price with other commodities price, particularly on energy commodities (housing and transportation). Using monthly series of consumer price index from 2004 to 2017 with 168 series total observation, we estimated a vector error-correction model (VECM). With assumption that the prices variable in estimation process have perfect information, the paper shows that the major drivers of Indonesian food price inflation are the food itself up to the two previous periods by the demand supply interaction rather than housing and transportation prices. Therefore, the authorities of inflation controlling are likely to be focus on maintaining the supply and demand of food commodities to control food price inflation.