Inflation In Indonesia Research Articles

The Impact of the Increase of Oil Fuel Price and Government Subsidy on Indonesia’s Economic Performance

The policy of increasing domestic fuel oil, as a consequence of rising world oil prices, has resulted in changing economic conditions, bearing in mind that oil prices and production are wrong macroeconomic assumptions and are included in the State Revenue and Expenditure Budget. This study aims to determine the impact of rising fuel prices and government subsidies on Indonesia's economic performance. The data used in this study are time series data from 2000 to 2022. Data were obtained from the Indonesian Central Bureau of Statistics, the Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources, the Ministry of Finance, and Bank Indonesia. This study uses an econometric model using a system of simultaneous equations. The research results show that; The main factors that caused the increase in domestic fuel prices, including crude oil prices, gasoline, diesel, kerosene and aviation fuel, were the increase in world oil prices and the previous year's oil prices. The estimation results also show that the increase in gasoline and diesel fuel can increase the number of poor people, unemployment and inflation in Indonesia. The policy simulation results show that the increase in oil prices has a significant impact on increasing the number of poor people, increasing unemployment and inflation, if this increase is not followed by subsidies in the form of non-energy.

Autoregressive Vector (VAR) Method in Analyzing Inflation Persistence in Indonesia

One of the most important economic variables is inflation. It is known that some changes in each major variable in the economy are caused by the rate of inflation, such as unemployment and future economic conditions. This is what makes inflation a variable that is often observed and tested, both theoretically and empirically. Economic development is said to run well if supported by stable inflation values, which will later serve to make the population more prosperous in the future. This research is a quantitative research using secondary data, namely inflation and CPI data from January 2018 to December 2022. Data obtained from Bank Indonesia and the Indonesian Central Bureau of Statistics. This study aims to see persistence in Indonesia and see the effect of CPI on inflation both in the long and short term. Where the model used in this study is using the VAR model of differential levels, because the data is not stationary at the level level. Determination of the optimal lag length is obtained from the lowest Akaike Information Criterion (AIC) value. The results of the analysis show that the persistence of inflation in Indonesia is fairly high. This is because the lag value in inflation is close to 1 or even more, which is 6.71. The high persistence of inflation is expected to cause shocks that affect the inflation rate in Indonesia. Then the length of time it takes for inflation to return to the equilibrium position is about 1 year and a half or 18 months. Furthermore, for the effect of inflation on CPI, in this case it has an influence in the long run, while for the short term influence is only influenced by its own variables.

Bibliometric Evaluating of Developmental Research on Indonesia Economic Growth and Inflation

The bibliometric method is used in this study to examine the increase of research or research on economic growth and inflation in Indonesia, specifically in journal publications on the Google Scholar page. The findings indicated that, between 2010 and 2021, there was an increase in the number of research publications, with 2013 and 2016 showing the largest increases. This explains why research on economic growth and inflation grew rapidly during those years. Along with the rising number of publications each cycle, the subject of Indonesia's economic expansion and inflation is also receiving an unprecedented number of quotes. Topics like infaq, ZIS, foreign investment, labor, wages, and BOPO that are connected to Indonesia's economic expansion and inflation are still rarely mentioned. Then, M Michael and T Militina, with five research articles each, followed by A Asnawati and N Izzah, with four articles, were the researchers who wrote and published the most journals relating to economic growth and inflation in Indonesia.

NON HIERARCHICAL K-MEANS ANALYSIS TO CLUSTERING PRIORITY DISTRIBUTION OF FUEL SUBSIDIES IN INDONESIA

The growth rate of inflation in Indonesia continues to increase from day to day. The inflation rate in Indonesia reached 1.17% in September 2022 which is the highest inflation rate in the last seven years. One of the causes of high inflation is caused by the increasing demand for motor vehicle fuel. Therefore, there is a need for appropriate action from the government in determining related policies. K-Means multivariate cluster analysis is a non-hierarchical cluster method that is popularly used, one of which is used in Machine Learning algorithms, especially Unsupervised Learning. The purpose of this research is to clustering that are priority distribution of subsidies in Indonesia based on the characteristics formed. The data in this study consist of the percentage of poverty, the percentage of total transportation, the percentage of transportation use, and the percentage of area. Data were analyzed using multivariate cluster analysis with the K-Means method. Based on the research results, information was obtained that the data fulfilled a representative sample with value of KMO >50%. In addition, there are 4 optimal clusters which are the results of the calculation of the Elbow and Silhoutte methods, so 4 provincial clusters are formed with their respective characteristics. Cluster 1 is a province that is highly prioritized to receive fuel subsidies, Cluster 2 is a province that is not highly prioritized for fuel subsidies, Cluster 3 is a province that is prioritized to receive fuel subsidies, and Cluster 4 is a province that is not prioritized to receive fuel subsidies.

Analisis Inflasi di Indonesia: Penerapan Model Vitaliano

This study aims to analyze the case of inflation in Indonesia, which is based on the problem of raising the price level (inflation) which is a classic economic problem of various countries, especially developing countries such as Indonesia. In this study using the Vitaliano model to analyze inflation, the variables included in this model are the money supply (M2), economic growth as measured by gross domestic product and government spending. The analytical tool used in this study is the Error Correction Model, with the test results concluding that the variables of money supply, economic growth and government spending have no effect on inflation in either the short or long run.

Comparison of Fuzzy Time Series Markov Chain and Fuzzy Time Series Cheng to Predict Inflation in Indonesia



The Effect of Fluctuations in Food Commodity Prices in the Month of Ramadan on Inflation in Indonesia

This study aims to investigate the effect of food commodity prices on inflation in the month of Ramadan in Indonesia in order to develop a strategy to control inflation in the month of Ramadan in Indonesia. This research method is a qualitative literature study. We found that ahead of Ramadan, the price of foodstuffs originating from livestock, such as beef, chicken and eggs, always increases, especially during Eid Al-Fitr and occurs for three consecutive years showing an increase every year. Fluctuations in the price of basic necessities often occur before, during and after national religious holidays such as Ramadan and Idul Fitri. This situation continues year after year due to the large number of requests. According to the law of demand, which states that when demand rises while supply is constrained, prices will rise, a growth in demands that cannot be satisfied by a restricted quantity of goods. Price swings before Eid al-Fitr are frequent occurrences that individuals can't seem to avoid. Consumers and producers have tended to confront more risks and uncertainties recently as a result of changes in food prices. Although it has a distinct pattern, the price of food items has also grown domestically. Quite fundamental changes have occurred since the last ten years, namely after the reform period.

THE EFFECT OF FOREIGN DEBT, FOREIGN INVESTMENT AND INFLATION ON INDONESIA'S ECONOMIC GROWTH

The purpose of this study is to analyze foreign debt, foreign investment and inflation in Indonesia's economic growth using multiple linear regression analysis. The scope of this research spans 32 years (1990-2021). The regression tool in this study used eviews-9 software. The results showed that the foreign debt variable had a positive and significant effect on the condition of Indonesia's economic growth, the foreign investment variable had a positive and significant effect on Indonesia's economic growth and the inflation variable had no effect and was not significant on Indonesia's economy growth.

Analisis Pengaruh Suku Bunga BI-Rate, Jumlah Uang Beredar M2, Dan Kurs Dollar As Terhadap Tingkat Inflasi Di Indonesia.

Inflation developments are a concernmain foreconomy in Indonesia. BI (Bank Indonesia) has a purposeuthe goals to maintain the stability of rupiah value which reflected in the inflation development.Unstable inflation is general and continuously increase in of price level of services and goods. It has an impact on weakening the purchasing power of the masses and then causes a decline in the national income of a country on a large scale. Therefore the rate of inflation is expected to be controlled. This study has a purpose to discuss the level of influence of BI- interest rate, money circulation, and the US Dollar Exchange Rate as an independent variable on Indonesian Inflation for the period 2005-2023 as the dependent variable used ECM-ADF(ADF error correction model). This study is retricted to analyze the secondary data with time series data between 2005-2023. The results showed that the variables Bir (Bi-rate), Jub (money supply), and Kurs (US Dollar Exchange Rate) have a significant effect on inflation in the short term. This means that an increase in interest rates, the amount of money in circulation and the exchange rate will increase inflation in Indonesia. While in the long run the variables Beer and Exchange Rate have a significant effect on inflation and only the variable Jub (money supply) has no significant effect on inflation. This means that an increase in money supply will reduce inflation in Indonesia.

The impact of inflation on growth of market index

Inflation in Indonesia tends to fluctuate and has its lowest point in April 2023. This study aims to examine the relationship between inflation and market indexes in Indonesia. The sample for this study is the market index (or IHSG) for the period from January to April 2023. This study finds that inflation has a unidirectional relationship with the movement of the market index in Indonesia. In addition, this study finds that the growth of the market index throughout the observation period is 0.012%. The results of this study indicate that there is a stable condition in the capital market as the controlled inflation rates.

Pengaruh Inflasi dan Covid 19 terhadap Pasar Uang Antar Bank Syariah di Indonesi:

This study aims to analyse the effect of inflation and Covid 19 on the Islamic interbank money market and prove the validity of the fisher effect theory on the Islamic interbank money market in Indonesia. This study uses secondary data, namely time series data from the Islamic interbank money market and Inflation in Indonesia during the period January 2018 to November 2022. Meanwhile, the model used in this study is the Error Correction Model (ECM). The results showed that simultaneously in the long term and short term, inflation and Covid 19 variables had a significant effect on the Islamic interbank money market in Indonesia. Meanwhile, partially in the long term, the inflation variable has a positive and significant effect on the Islamic interbank money market. Covid 19 variable has a negative and significant effect on the Islamic interbank money market. In the short term, the Covid 19 variable has a negative and significant effect on the Islamic interbank money market in Indonesia. This study proves the existence of fisher effect on the Islamic interbank money market in Indonesia.
 Keywords: Islamic Interbank Money Market, Fisher Effect Theory, Covid 19

International Trade Price Index: A Leading Indicator for Indonesia's Inflation?

As one of essential indicators in economy, inflation rate can be determined by several factors. One of these factors is price index other than CPI, representing price change, other at consumer level. Many studies have examined the effect of price indices such as Producer Price Index (PPI) and Wholesale Price Index (WPI) on inflation, including in Indonesia. However, in an open economy, the level of openness, which can be approximated by International Trade Price Index (IHPI), may also influence changes in inflation. In Indonesia, no studies still examine the nexus between ITPI and inflationThis study aims to examine the effect of price indices variables other than at consumer level, particularly ITPI, on inflation and whether we can use it as one of the leading indicators of inflation in Indonesia. The analysis results of the ARDL-ECM model show that all price indices variables simultaneously influence inflation. However, the effect of each variable partially on inflation in the short and long run varies. The speed of adjustment to return to equilibrium is 4.67% per month after the shock happened. Nevertheless, the effect of ITPI on inflation is insignificant, both in the short and long run. Thus, we can conclude that ITPI is not yet able to be a leading indicator of inflation in Indonesia. However, the result of this study must be carefully concluded since the use of time series analysis depends on the lag length and the number of observations included.

Dampak Jumlah Uang Beredar, Nilai Tukar Rupiah dan Suku Bunga Bi Rate Terhadap Inflasi di Indonesia setelah Krisis Global 2008

This study aims to determine how the response and how much the contribution of the Money Supply, Rupiah Exchange Rates and BI Rate on Inflation in Indonesia After the 2008 Global Crisis. The data used in this study are time series data in 2008.1 to 2018.12. This research uses quantitative methods and analyzed using Eviews 8, using the Vector Autoregression (VAR) method. The results of this study indicate that there is no cointegration on the Amount of Money Supply, Rupiah Exchange Rates and BI Rate on Inflation in Indonesia after the 2008 Global Crisis. In the granger causality test results, if we use the null hypothesis with a significant level of ten percent, we get a granger causality relationship namely: Exchange rates against inflation and Exchange rates against JUB. But if we use the null hypothesis with a significant level of five percent, a granger causality relationship is obtained, namely inflation against the BI rate and the BI rate against the exchange rate. Analysis using the Impluse Response Function shows that JUB tends to give a negative response to inflation. Whereas the exchange rate and the BI rate tend to provide a positive response to inflation. Analysis using Variance Decomposition shows that the BI rate has the largest contribution in the formation of inflation that is far greater than the JUB and Exchange Rates. The relationship between the BI rate and inflation shows the importance of monetary policy to control the rate of inflation in Indonesia.

Causality Analysis of The Money Supply and Interest Rate and Its Effect on Inflation and Investment in Indonesia

This study aims to determine the effect of the money supply and interest rates on inflation and investment in Indonesia without using causality and using causality. In this study, the type of data used was secondary data from 2006 to 2017. The analysis tools used were Path. Money supply without using causality or using causality has a positive and significant effect on inflation in Indonesia. Interest rates without using causality or using causality have a positive and significant effect on investment in Indonesia. Inflation without using causality or using causality has a negative and significant effect on investment in Indonesia. The model without using causality is better or more feasible than the model using causality, seen from the value of the Goodness of Fit model without higher causality compared to the value of the Goodness of Fit criteria model using causality.

Indonesia’s Foreign currency reserves: An Analysis of the Influencing Factors

The impact of exports, inflation, the rupiah exchange rate (ER), and foreign direct investment (FDI) on Indonesia's foreign currency reserves is examined in this study (FER). The FER is the dependent variable in the study model's multiple linear regression equations, which also include the independent variables exports, inflation, the exchange rate of the rupiah, and foreign direct investment in Indonesia. The data used is from 2001 to 2021, and the model estimation technique is Ordinary Least Squares. The study demonstrates that FER is highly impacted by exports, inflation, the exchange rate of the rupiah, and FDI in Indonesia. FER is significantly and favorably impacted by exports and FDI. FER is negatively and significantly impacted by inflation in Indonesia. The rupiah ER does, however, have a slight and favorable impact on FER.

Financial Ratio Analysis to Measure The Company's Financial Performance Before And During The Covid-19 Pandemic At PT. Universal Packaging Services (UJK)

Beginning in 2020, a brand-new occurrence known as Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) startled the entire world. Particularly in Indonesia, this phenomena is growing quickly and has a significant impact on many facets of daily life (Susilo, et al, 2020). Economic activity has been significantly impacted by this virus, particularly in Indonesia's industrial sector. The Covid-19 epidemic, according to Haryanto (2020), caused the value of the rupiah to decrease. The decline in the rupiah's value occurred up to IDR 16,600 per US dollar in comparison to the time before the pandemic, when it was IDR 14,000 per US dollar. The level of inflation in Indonesia in 2020 was the lowest it has been since 2014. One of the factors that must be examined for urgency in decision-making and business sustainability is the company's performance. Financial performance analysis, Fahmi (2017) asserts that doing an analysis is essential to persuading the organization to adhere to predetermined rules for the proper and accurate use of funds. Information was acquired at PT. Universal Packaging Services about the company's financial performance prior to and during the Covid-19 pandemic (UJK). The results of the computation of the liquidity ratio vary from year to year when computing the current ratio, quick ratio, and cash ratio. The return on equity (ROE) decreases every year, but there aren't many ups and downs in the profitability ratio computation based on the calculation of gross profit margin (GPM), net profit margin (NPM), and return on assets (ROA). The debt to asset ratio (DAR) and debt to equity ratio computations used to determine the solvency ratio fluctuate annually (DER).

Indonesia’s tax revenue: The effect of inflation rate and economic growth

<p class="Default">In order to ascertain and analyze the impact of Indonesia's inflation rate and economic growth on tax collections, between 2012 and 2020, the Ministry of Finance's Directorate General of Taxes performed research. Data collection approaches were acquired through literature and documentation for this research, which is categorized as descriptive and verificative research with a quantitative approach. The sampling method employs non-probability sampling, which creates a saturated sample by taking samples from the entire population. Multiple linear regression analysis is used to analyze data, while the t-test and f-test are used to assess hypotheses. The results show that inflation rate has no significant positive effect on tax revenue. Besides, economic growth has no significant negative effect on tax revenue. It is hoped that government will pay attention for tax revenue every year.</p>

PENGARUH RISIKO INFLASI TERHADAP TINGKAT RETURN SAHAM DI PT. UNILEVER TAHUN 2015 - 2019

This study aims to determine the impact of inflation in Indonesia on stock returns at PT. Unilever 2015 – 2019. In determining the impact of inflation on stock returns, data that is relevant to the title of the study is needed. This research method is a quantitative research method, the data collection method is a secondary data collection method derived from journals, final assignments, and books that are relevant to this research. Furthermore, for the data analysis method used quantitative descriptive analysis method with stock return data used which means the difference between stock prices in the current period and stock prices in the previous period (capital gain loss). The results of this study indicate that inflation has no effect on the value of stock returns at PT. Unilever in 2015 – 2019.

Analisis Hubungan Pertumbuhan Ekonomi, Angkatan Kerja dan Inflasi di Indonesia: Pendekatan Vector Error Correction Model (VECM)

The purpose of this research is to analyze the causality and long-term relationship between economic growth, labor force and inflation in Indonesia. This study uses secondary data obtained from the World Bank in the form of annual data with a quantitative descriptive approach using the Vector Error Correction Model (VECM). The results of the study showed that there was no causal relationship between the labor force and economic growth and there was no causal relationship between inflation and economic growth, but there was a one-way relationship between labour force and inflation, namely inflation affects the labor force. In the short term, there was none of the variable had a significant effect on economic growth. The labor force had a positive and insignificant impact on economic growth during 2000-2021 in the short term, while inflation had a negative and insignificant impact on economic growth in 2000-2021 in the short term, but in the long term inflation had a positive and significant impact.

Respon Investor Asing Terhadap Risiko Ekonomi Indonesia

This study aims to examine the response of foreign investors to economic risk. Economic risk is measured using inflation rate, interest rate and exchange rate. This research uses a quantitative approach method. The data used is monthly data for 3 years starting from January 2021 to December 2022. The Quantitative data used in the form of foreign investment data, inflation, interest rates and exchange rates for 36 months. The data analysis method used is multiple linear regression analysis. The results showed that investors responded positively to economic risks such as inflation, interest rates and exchange rates but only inflation variables were responded significantly by foreign investors. It is expected that with these findings, the government can take policies to stabilize inflation in Indonesia, given the positive response of investors to this economic risk. By stabilizing inflation, interest rates will also be under control, as well as the government maintaining the stability of the Rupiah exchange rate by managing the supply and demand of foreign exchange and maintaining rupiah liquidity.