Infected People Research Articles

Sufficient and necessary conditions of near-optimal controls for a stochastic listeriosis model with spatial diffusion

<abstract><p>Random environment and human activities have important effects on the survival of listeria. In this paper, treating infected people and removing bacteria from the environment as control strategies, we developed a listeriosis model that considers random noise and spatial diffusion. By constructing a Lyapunov function, we demonstrated the existence and uniqueness of the global positive solution of the model. However, it was a challenging task to realize the optimal control of the model by solving the Pontryagin random maximum principle with the lowest control cost. Therefore, our study on near-optimal controls is of great significance for controlling the spread of listeriosis. Initially, we gave some adjoint equations and a priori estimates. Subsequently, the Pontryagin random maximum principle was utilized to establish the sufficient and necessary conditions for achieving near-optimal controls. Ultimately, the theoretical findings are corroborated through numerical analysis.</p></abstract>

Ivermectin as a possible treatment for COVID-19: a review of the 2022 protocols.

Ivermectin is a safe and effective drug in humans and has been approved for use in numerous parasitic infections for over 50 years. In addition, many studies have already shown its antiviral activity. Ivermectin is generally well tolerated, with no indication of central nervous system-associated toxicity at doses up to 10 times the highest FDA-approved dose of 200 µg/kg. The in vitro results of ivermectin for reducing SARS-CoV-2 viral load are promising and show that Ivermectin kills SARS-CoV-2 within 48 hours. A hypothesized mechanism of action for this drug is a likely inhibition of IMPα/β1-mediated nuclear import of viral proteins as demonstrated for other RNA viruses. However, controlled and randomized studies are needed to prove its effectiveness in COVID-19 in humans. In a single in vivo study with published results, patients confirmed to be infected with SARS-CoV-2 received at least one dose of ivermectin at any time during hospitalization. The use of ivermectin was associated with lower mortality during treatment with COVID-19, especially in patients who required increased inspired oxygen or ventilatory support. Additionally, 81 studies with the clinical use of ivermectin in humans are being carried out worldwide according to ClinicalTrials.gov. However, none of these data has been published so far. However, private and public entities in Brazil have been adopting this drug in their protocols as prophylaxis and in the initial phase of the disease. In addition, ivermectin has been used in mass treatment to prevent onchocerciasis and lymphatic filariasis in sub-Saharan Africa for many years. Surprisingly, this region has the lowest proportional mortality rate among the continents, despite the increasing numbers of infected people released by the World Health Organization.

ВИЗНАЧЕННЯ КУСКОВО-ЛІНІЙНОГО ТРЕНДУ НЕСТАЦІОНАРНОГО ЧАСОВОГО РЯДУ НА ОСНОВІ ІНТЕЛЕКТУАЛЬНОГО АНАЛІЗУ ДАНИХ. II. МАШИННI ЕКСПЕРИМЕНТИ ТА РОЗВ’ЯЗАННЯ ПРАКТИЧНОЇ ЗАДАЧІ

The article describes the results of the approbation of the method of constructing a piecewise-linear trend, which can have breaks at the switching points as well as be continuous at these points, i.e., represent a linear flow. An example of applying the method for constructing a linear regression with switches, which has two independent variables with a trend, is considered. The problem of spline approximation of the time series of logarithms of the number of infected people with COVID-19 in Ukraine is stated and solved. Keywords: trend, regression, switch point, spline, real-time calculation.

Modeling different infectious phases of hepatitis B with generalized saturated incidence: An analysis and control.

Hepatitis B is one of the global health issues caused by the hepatitis B virus (HBV), producing 1.1 million deaths yearly. The acute and chronic phases of HBV are significant because worldwide, approximately 250 million people are infected by chronic hepatitis B. The chronic stage is a long-term, persistent infection that can cause liver damage and increase the risk of liver cancer. In the case of multiple phases of infection, a generalized saturated incidence rate model is more reasonable than a simply saturated incidence because it captures the complex dynamics of the different infection phases. In contrast, a simple saturated incidence rate model assumes a fixed shape for the incidence rate curve, which may not accurately reflect the dynamics of multiple infection phases. Considering HBV and its various phases, we constructed a model to present the dynamics and control strategies using the generalized saturated incidence. First, we proved that the model is well-posed. We then found the reproduction quantity and model equilibria to discuss the time dynamics of the model and investigate the conditions for stabilities. We also examined a control mechanism by introducing various controls to the model with the aim to increase the population of those recovered and minimize the infected people. We performed numerical experiments to check the biological significance and control implementation.

Factors Influencing the Use and Demand of New Coronavirus Therapy Drugs Among the Adults During COVID-19 in China.

This alteration in the policy of COVID-19 resulted in widespread infections throughout China. Most people only need some antiviral drugs such as lopinavir/ritonavir or Chinese herbal preparations for treatment. In this context, the lack of drug knowledge and inadequate drug availability are evident. This study aims to explore the factors influencing drug use and demand during the COVID-19 epidemic. This study used quota sampling based on gender, age, and place of residence to perform a cross-sectional survey on a sample of 771 adults. The researchers used chi-square tests to understand differences in drug use and demand across characteristics, and binary logistic regression to analyse the influencing factors. The study revealed that 85.9% of the participants used drugs following the COVID-19 infection. Participants with college and above, (OR=2.49, 95% CI=1.27-4.88) annual personal income between 30,000 and 80,000CNY (OR=2.19, 95% CI=1.35-3.55) and over 80,000CNY (OR=1.96, 95% CI=1.05-3.66) were more knowledgeable about using drugs. Gender, (OR=0.69, 95% CI=0.50-0.95) age, (OR=2.11, 95% CI=1.15-3.88) residence, (OR=1.58, 95% CI=1.06-2.37) chronic disease conditions (OR=0.46, 95% CI=0.27-0.78) and infection symptoms (OR=0.60, 95% CI=0.38-0.93) as factors influencing the need for drug delivery services. (P<0.05). Research has revealed that a significant proportion of infected people in China chose drug treatment during COVID-19. Individuals with severe symptoms use more medication and require more drug delivery and storage. Low-education and low-income populations are lacking in drug knowledge, and older adults with underlying medical conditions are more likely to need drug delivery services. Therefore, governments should prioritize vulnerable groups when formulating drug policies and target drug literacy and guidance. In addition, it is recommended that a drug distribution system be set up within the community so that those in need can have quick and easy access to drugs.

AN OUTBREAK OF CUTANEOUS LEISHMANIASIS IN THE LOCAL POPULATION OF DIR UPPER, PAKISTAN

Leishmaniasis is an infectious disease caused by intracellular parasitic protozoans belonging to a genus of flagellate protozoa called Leishmania. More than 25 species of the genus Leishmania are present worldwide in which several species are pathogenic to humans. In many cases, cutaneous infection is formed but some species cause subcutaneous or deeper tissues and visceral infection. Cutaneous leishmaniasis is a skin disease caused by Leishmania topica. This disease is transmitted by sandflies. The disease is endemic along the entire Western border of Pakistan. During the present research, the samples were collected from infected people in different areas of Dir Upper. A total of 548 samples were collected among which 346 (63%) were positive cases. In the infected people, 297 (86%) were from the local population and 59 (14%) from Afghan refugees. A total of 235 (68%) males and 111(32%) females were affected. The high prevalence rate (48.5%) was noticed in the age of 11-20 years old people. The prevalence rate between the age of 0-10 was 29.1%. The low prevalence rate (13.6%) was noticed in the people over 30 years. Mostly one lesion was noticed in affected people (69%). The patients with two lesions were 22%. The numbers of affected persons with more than two active lesions were little in number i. e. 8.3%. Most of the lesions were reported on the face (36.1%). The second affected part of the body noticed in the study was hand (26.5%). Most of the lesions were dry (81%). It is concluded that a high prevalence rate was observed. People’s awareness is very necessary.

Epidemiological Study on Relationship Between Some of Demographic Characteristics and the Prevalence of Hydatid Cysts Disease in the Holy City of Karbala

Hydatid cyst or hydatidosis is one of the common diseases between humans and animals (zoonotic disease) and has a global spread. Due to the importance of the disease, we chose this topic to find out the epidemiological extent of the spread of the disease and its relationship to some demographic characteristics. Where statistical data was collected and analyzed for those with hydatid cysts who were treated with surgical intervention at Al-Hussein Teaching Hospital in the Holy Governorate of Karbala. The statistics included (the number of infected people - age - gender - months of infection - residential areas - multiplicity of infections - affected body parts). The total number of infected people was (40) for both sexes for the year (2022). There were (27) infected cases (67.5%) in females and (13) infected cases (32.5%) in males. Thus, the infection rate in females is higher than in males. The infection rate according to age was highest in the youth group (21-30) and the lowest in the very young and very old ages. The highest infection rate during the year was during June and September, while the lowest was in the cold months of December and January, in which no infection was recorded. The infection rate in rural areas (Al-Hindiyya and Al-Husseiniyah sectors) was higher than in city areas. As for multiple infections, the highest percentage is a single infection, and the most affected organ is the liver, then the abdominal cavity, while the least affected organ is the lung.

Penggunaan Jamu pada Kasus Covid-19 Gejala Ringan di Pelayanan Kesehatan Tradisional di Jakarta (Studi Pendahuluan)

Background: In the COVID-19 pandemic situation, herbal medicine is quite widely used by people. Objective: to assess the description of the handling of mild cases of COVID-19 clients using herbal ingredients, which was carried out at a Traditional Health Care Center in Jakarta. Method: Descriptive research with retrospective case study design on mild COVID-19 cases using or being treated with traditional Indonesian herbal medicine, using secondary data from medical records from 30 COVID-19 clients who had COVID-19 status based on PCR examination. Results: There were 7 types of herbs given either as a single herb or a combination of them. Most of the ingredients used were sambiloto capsules and Jamu B concoction. After drinking the potions, 21 clients were symptom free on day 14, 2 clients were symptom free on days 5 and 7 and were noted to have a habit of drinking jamu for physical fitness. Cumulatively, all clients were symptom free on day 23 with stable condition in 8 clients (26.7%) and 22 clients (73.3%) stated that they were getting lighter. The most cases of transmission of COVID-19 to people around them were 5 clients who infected 5 people. All infected people have mild/asymptomatic COVID-19. Conclusion: Herbal medicine has the potential to be used for COVID-19 clients with mild/asymptomatic complaints, and the habit of drinking herbal concoctions for fitness can shorten the day of symptom relief compared to those who do not drink herbal medicine before getting sick.

감염자 접촉추적 시스템 구축에 따른 프라이버시 침해 문제 및 법적 대응방안

On May 5, 2023, the World Health Organization(WHO) announced that COVID-19 was no longer a “public health emergency of international concern.” The South Korean government also declared the end of the COVID-19 pandemic on the 11th of the same month. After more than three years, the COVID-19 crisis is over. Now is the time to look back on the experience of the past three years and make a comprehensive assessment of the national system for prevention of epidemics. In other words, the assessments are to evaluate the effectiveness of the current system in preventing and controlling the spread of infectious diseases, and to evaluate the constitutionality of the legal basis underlying the system.&#x0D; During the three years of the COVID-19 emergency, the government’s system for prevention of epidemics has evolved after much experience and criticisms, and Infectious Diseases Control and Prevention Act has been revised several times. In this article, I will focus on contact tracing system among the many systems contained in the Act.&#x0D; First of all, the contact tracing has been practiced for a long time as part of epidemiological investigations. However, advances in technology have made contact tracing more efficient, faster, and more accurate. Technology-Assisted Contact-Tracing systems can be divided into two main types: the first is the method used in South Korea, which tracks the movement of infected people through location data based on GPS signals, immigration records, credit card usages and etc. and combines them with visitation records to identify contacts. The second is the method used in Europe and the United States to identify contacts by utilizing Bluetooth-based Technology-Assisted Contact-Tracing, which is based on storing contact information using a smart phone app and Bluetooth, and then send a warning message to the stored contacts if they are tested positive for corona. This can be further divided into centralized and decentralized types based on whether the government is involved in verification and identification of contact.&#x0D; In this paper, I compare and analyze the two contact tracing systems to finally check the contact tracing system in Korea.&#x0D; First of all, South Korea’s contact tracing system involves the processing of a wide range of personal data by the state. Various personal data is integrated and analyzed through the KCDC’s data processing system. However, there is a risk that the right to the protection of personal data may be eroded through non-transparent data processing. This constitutes a serious violation of the principle of proportionality and the principle of transparency.&#x0D; On the other hand, contact tracing system via apps and Bluetooth has the advantage of being a privacy-friendly method that minimizes government intervention and excludes the collection of location data. However, this approach starts with the voluntary participation of citizens, and its success depends on their active participation. The basic premise for this method to work is that the app must be trustworthy in terms of privacy protection.&#x0D; In any contact tracing system, the process of contact tracing necessarily involves the processing of various personal data, so the principles relating to processing of personal data must be strictly observed. This should not be overlooked in the design of the system.

Progress in the application of CRISPR/Cas system in the precise detection and treatment of diseases associated with viral infections

Various pathogens can cause infectious diseases, which can spread from one person or animal to another or even between humans and other animals. Microorganisms, viruses, and parasites make up the majority of pathogens. The disease can typically be spread through direct contact with infected people, contact with their bodily fluids and feces, their contaminated objects, vertical transmission (mom-to-child transmission), soil transmission, water transmission, food transmission, contact transmission, and oral transmission of feces and bodily fluids. The importance of treating infectious diseases is heightened by the fact that they are difficult to totally eradicate and are disseminated so widely. Now, CRISPR/Cas9 has been applied in the field of detection and treatment of diseases related to viral infection. It has the characteristics of high specificity and low off-target rate, and is an emerging approach for rapid and accurate detection of viral infection and safe and effective treatment of diseases related to viral infection. In recent years, the system has been successfully applied in the detection and treatment of many viruses such as HIV, HBV, HPV and multiple herpes virus, and the development prospect is broad. This review introduced the RNA-targeting CRISPR/Cas system's composition, structure, molecular mechanism, and potential application, focused on the research progress of the CRISPR/Cas system in the detection and treatment of viral infection-related diseases, and summarized and forecasted the development of relevant systems and related research.

Mechanism, applications and of mRNA vaccines

In recent years, infectious diseases such as novel coronavirus pneumonia, influenza, and tuberculosis have brought great social and economic burdens to the world. Vaccination is the most effective and economical intervention to control the spread of infectious diseases, save lives and protect people's health. mRNA vaccine is expected to be a new type of infectious disease vaccine. Compared with traditional vaccines, mRNA vaccines have many advantages, such as high efficiency, safety, short production cycle, low cost, etc. However, the stability of mRNA vaccines is poor. However, mRNA vaccines have poor stability and low delivery efficiency, and their clinical applications are greatly restricted. Therefore, current and future research focuses on the design of advanced and tolerable delivery systems to improve the efficiency of antigen expression and presentation, as well as the optimization of mRNA structure to prolong and control the duration of expression, under the premise of ensuring the safety of vaccines. This review summarizes the history, classification, principles and mechanisms of mRNA vaccines, and briefly discusses the current challenges and future directions for developing mRNA vaccines for different diseases.

The COVID-19 Outbreak in Iran: Its Lessons for Us

SARS-CoV-2, with 96% genetic similarity to the bat coronavirus transmitted to humans by the intermediate host in China, has been spread rapidly by travelers to most countries, including Iran. Following the detection of the first death related to COVID-19 on February 19, 2020, in the health center of Qom, a holy city in the center of Iran, the spread of the virus in Iran was initiated and quickly spread to all provinces of Iran by asymptomatic individuals. Until April 21, 2020, of the 330137 tested patients, the number of infected people was 80,868. The most common clinical symptoms were fever, cough, fatigue, and dyspnea. Patients had abnormal computed tomography scans, lymphopenia, and elevated C-reactive protein. The patients and those who were in contact with them had to be quarantined. Other asymptomatic people also recommended quarantining themselves at home to cut off the transmission chain. Therefore, COVID-19 could be controlled by disinfecting public places, informing people, providing comprehensive assistance to stay at home, and most importantly, initiating vaccination.

Long-Term Effects of COVID-19: A Guide to Post-Recovery Symptoms in Diyala Governorate, Eastern Iraq

Background: The COVID-19 pandemic is a massive global event with significant health, psychological and social consequences, appeared for the first time in December 2019, it was officially called Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome (SARS-Cov-2), it causes important diseases in humans ranging from common cold to deadly respiratory infections, most infected people recovering within a few weeks, except some of them, have symptoms for a long time and it is called a post-COVID-19 syndrome. Objectives: This study was conducted in Diyala Governorate, north of Baghdad, from October 2022 to March 2023, to investigate the most important symptoms that people are still suffering from them after recovering from COVID-19. Materials and methods: The study was carried out by cross-sectional analysis of a sample of people who had previously been infected with COVID-19, using a questionnaire that was divided into several sections including demographic details for the participants in this study, duration of hospitalization, and the symptoms that still accompany them after gaining full recovery from infection with the virus. The sample size was 300 individuals. Results: The current study concluded that many of the symptoms are still associated with people who recovered after infection with Covid-19. The following symptoms were most common, fatigue after any slight exertion, headache, Dizziness when standing, coughing, and difficulty breathing with proportions of 70.0%, 69.0%, 64.0%, 60.7%, and 55.7%, respectively. there were highly significant differences in the age of the sample, with the highest age group (10-40) accounting for 85%, while the lowest age group (60) also there was statistically significant differences between age and rate of symptoms appearing, as the symptoms are more common in male from the female. no significant differences between the samples on the rural versus urban housing variable and oxygen demand during the hospital stay. Conclusion: After full recovery, COVID-19 continues to produce major complications, with males being more affected than females.

Development of HIV Therapeutic Approaches based on Nanotechnology

Acquired Immune Deficiency Syndrome appears to be one of the major threats to humankind and is a serious health problem and a fast-spreading incurable disease. Numerous antiviral medications and nucleic acid therapies, including siRNA, have been researched and assessed for HIV prevention due to the virus' complex structural makeup and the absence of a potential vaccine. The antiviral treatments have considerably improved the quality and hope of life for the infected people, but along with the capacity to adapt to the virus, it has prevented further success. HIV primarily affects the body's cell-mediated immune system. It is concentrated in specific inaccessible areas of the body such as the CNS, lymphatic system and macrophages where the majority of therapeutic drugs cannot reach in sufficient concentrations or for the required period. With the introduction of highly active antiretroviral therapy, the prevalence of HIV/AIDS infections is decreasing. Drug resistance and physical obstacles to antiretroviral therapy are still major problems. Different nanocarriers with the stimuli-responsive release are proposed for antiretroviral agents. These include creating nanoparticles with passive and active targeting capabilities as well as ones that can react to a variety of internal and external triggers. Many of the advantages of the lipid system can also be offered by nanocarriers. For the treatment of HIV/AIDS, drug delivery systems such as liposomes, solid lipid nanoparticles, dendrimers and polymeric nanoparticles are being studied. This study seeks to provide an overview of how nanocarrier technology can offer a logical approach to anti-HIV therapy.

Sociodemographic and clinical profile of infected elderly people hospitalized by COVID-19 in a private hospital in Goiânia

Introduction: COVID-19 is an acute respiratory disease, with a higher prevalence of the virus affecting male patients, aged between 51 and 70 years. Objective: To describe the sociodemographic and clinical profile of elderly people infected with COVID-19 admitted to a private hospital in Goiânia, GO. Method: This is a descriptive, cross-sectional, retrospective study that was carried out in a hospital specialized in combating COVID-19. The study population involved elderly people over 60 years of age who were admitted to the institution from August 2020 to January 2021 and diagnosed with COVID-19. Results: The results demonstrated that the majority of elderly, male, hospitalized patients came from the emergency department, with an average age of 72 years, highlighting the data for diagnostic confirmation with RT-PCR before hospitalization, and the main warning symptoms were: dry cough and shortness of breath. Conclusion: Despite the limitations of the study, the findings may contribute to symptom tracking strategies to better track pathology and conditions that progress to hospitalization or death.

A Multiplex Nanopore Sequencing Approach for the Detection of Multiple Arboviral Species.

The emergence and continued geographic expansion of arboviruses and the growing number of infected people have highlighted the need to develop and improve multiplex methods for rapid and specific detection of pathogens. Sequencing technologies are promising tools that can help in the laboratory diagnosis of conditions that share common symptoms, such as pathologies caused by emerging arboviruses. In this study, we integrated nanopore sequencing and the advantages of reverse transcription polymerase chain reaction (RT-PCR) to develop a multiplex RT-PCR protocol for the detection of Chikungunya virus (CHIKV) and several orthoflaviviruses (such as dengue (Orthoflavivirus dengue), Zika (Orthoflavivirus zikaense), yellow fever (Orthoflavivirus flavi), and West Nile (Orthoflavivirus nilense) viruses) in a single reaction, which provides data for sequence-based differentiation of arbovirus lineages.

Association between biochemical and hematologic factors with COVID-19 using data mining methods

Background and aimCoronavirus disease (COVID-19) is an infectious disease that can spread very rapidly with important public health impacts. The prediction of the important factors related to the patient's infectious diseases is helpful to health care workers. The aim of this research was to select the critical feature of the relationship between demographic, biochemical, and hematological characteristics, in patients with and without COVID-19 infection.MethodA total of 13,170 participants in the age range of 35–65 years were recruited. Decision Tree (DT), Logistic Regression (LR), and Bootstrap Forest (BF) techniques were fitted into data. Three models were considered in this study, in model I, the biochemical features, in model II, the hematological features, and in model II, both biochemical and homological features were studied.ResultsIn Model I, the BF, DT, and LR algorithms identified creatine phosphokinase (CPK), blood urea nitrogen (BUN), fasting blood glucose (FBG), total bilirubin, body mass index (BMI), sex, and age, as important predictors for COVID-19. In Model II, our BF, DT, and LR algorithms identified BMI, sex, mean platelet volume (MPV), and age as important predictors. In Model III, our BF, DT, and LR algorithms identified CPK, BMI, MPV, BUN, FBG, sex, creatinine (Cr), age, and total bilirubin as important predictors.ConclusionThe proposed BF, DT, and LR models appear to be able to predict and classify infected and non-infected people based on CPK, BUN, BMI, MPV, FBG, Sex, Cr, and Age which had a high association with COVID-19.

Reduced Libido Is a Major Factor in Decreased Erectile Function among Men with Mild COVID-19

During the Corona Virus Disease-2019 (COVID-19) pandemic, among men infected with SARS-CoV-2, little attention has been given to reduced libido and its associations with decreased erectile function, even though there may be physical and psychological factors that contribute to the two. So the purpose of the study is to determine the correlation between decreased erectile function and reduced libido in SARS-CoV-2 infected people during the COVID-19 pandemic and to describe the associated clinical, psychic, and lifestyle parameters. We recruited 321 eligible men with SARS-CoV-2 infection in the urology clinic of our hospital. We used the International Index of Erectile Function-5 (IIEF-5), the Patient Health Questionnaire-9 (PHQ-9), 7-item Generalized Anxiety Disorder (GAD-7) module, and Pittsburgh Sleep Quality Index to independently evaluate the subjects, collect relevant data, and analyze the data. In this study, we show that both libido and erectile function were decreased after SARS-CoV-2 infection (p&lt;0.0001), and reduced libido was strongly correlated with decreased erectile function (p&lt;0.0001; odds ratio (OR) = 11.33). In addition, anxiety (OR = 2.41, CI = 1.13–5.23), (p&lt;0.05), symptomatic infection (OR = 3.293, CI = 1.11–11.48), (p&lt;0.05), and body mass index (OR = 0.88, CI = 0.83–0.92), (p&lt;0.05) were also associated with decreased erectile function. So, we think that during the COVID-19 pandemic, for erectile dysfunction patients who decreased erectile function after SARS-CoV-2 infection, we should not only pay attention to patients’ erectile function status but also to patients’ reduced libido status.

People With Special Needs and Their Difficulties in Front Of Covid-19 in the Municipality

The paper addresses the impact of Covid-19 in the territory of the Municipality of Prizren. The article speaks of the impact and consequences of COVID-19 In certain strata of the population of the Municipality of Prizren, especially in that strata of people with disabilities of action, the difficulties in their communication with educational and health institutions at central and local level.An integral part of this article is the impact of the Pandemic on the local government, the difficulties in collecting municipal taxes such as self-revenue of municipalities and the impact of the pandemic on the essential change in initial planning of municipalities. Prizren during the pandemia issued decisions to extend the term of payment of municipal tax installments. Normally, the article starts from two aspects; Social aspect and legal aspect. In the social aspect, the increasing number of infected people, while the legal aspect (Fred, 2020) originates from the World Health Organization (WHO, 11.mars, 2020), which on March 11, 2020 announced the corona Covid-19 virus as global pandemic (WHO, 2020).

Forecasting the number of new crown infections in China based on machine learning methods

Based on the current state and the evolution of the new crown epidemic in China, this pa-per uses machine learning models and historical data to predict the changes in the number of new crown infections in China in the next four months. First, analyzing the background and current situation of the new crown epidemic, and identified the research question by collecting relevant historical data, including indicators such as the number of infected people, the number of cured people, and the number of deaths. Second, employing ma-chine learning models and MIR model to predict the trend and scale of the number of new crown infections in China over the next four months. Finally, coming to a forecast conclu-sion: in the next four months, the number of new crown infections in China will drop very slightly (almost remain unchanged) every month, and the monthly infection rate will re-main at a low level. At the same time, discussing and summarizing the application value of the conclusions. The research results of this paper can provide useful references and guidance for government policymakers and the public, helping them better deal with the epidemic and formulate corresponding measures. In addition, the research methods and models in this paper also have a certain degree of versatility, which can provide a certain reference for other countries and regions to predict the trend and scale of the new crown epidemic.