Industrial Production Growth Research Articles

Smooth sailing: market integration, agglomeration, and productivity growth in interwar Brazil

Abstract Leveraging an original dataset on coastal shipping and invoking a new economic geography framework, we study the effects of domestic and international trade costs on industrial concentration and productivity growth in interwar Brazil. In the great wave of globalization before 1914, international trade costs were low and domestic costs high. Economic activity was dispersed along the coastline. The interwar period saw a reversal: international costs surged and domestic costs declined. Economic activity was increasingly concentrated in São Paulo. Agglomeration economies enabled productivity growth in the 1930s, mostly in durable and capital goods.

EMPLOYMENT CREATION IN INDUSTRIAL SECTOR IN RURAL AREAS AND ITS EFFECTIVENESS IN THE PRODUCTIVITY AND ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT- A CONCEPTUAL STUDY.

This paper examines the potential for industrial sector-specific productivity growth in that, human capital, economic growth of the industry, and infrastructure to contribute to the development of stable, well-paid employment in rural areas of low-income groups in India. In this paper the particular emphasis is placed on the creation of the employment and its applications in the rural areas. The employment creation and its way that different sectors of the rural economy interact with its new applications help us to know the implications on economy. A simple theoretical and conceptual framework and the descriptive analysis of available secondary data from India scenario and Indian rural areas suggests that more emphasis should be placed on increasing the productivity of the employees so that they can incorporate local areas to grow to a developed extent. This paper mainly focusses the targeted rural regions where the manpower can be utilized to increase the productivity and also helps in achieving the greater outcome which can be major contribution to economic growth and development. India can be regarded as developed country only when the major rural population gets literate, acquire employment and contributes towards the growth of the country through knowledge, standards and performance. This can be achieved through the creation of such opportunities to rural poor by introduction of various sectors and its advancements.

ІННОВАЦІЙНИЙ РОЗВИТОК ПРОМИСЛОВОСТІ УКРАЇНИ: ЕКОНОМІКО-ПРАВОВІ АСПЕКТИ

High innovation activity is one of the most important conditions for effective socio-economic development of the country. However, in Ukraine, as in other transition economies, the level of innovation development is unsatisfactory. The study was conducted to diagnose problems and develop proposals to stimulate innovative development of the national economy and its industrial sector. In the analytical part of the work, based on the results of the comparative analysis, it is stated that the innovativeness of Ukrainian industrial products is the lowest in Europe. It was found that in addition to the low level of innovation of Ukrainian industry products, the problem is the excessively high or extremely low export orientation of the latter. Thus, the share of products sold abroad in the volume of sold innovative products of Ukraine in 2019 was 54.2 %, while in Poland — 46.2 %. In terms of manufacturing, the highest export orientation of innovative products in Ukraine is characteristic of metallurgical production (90.6 %), production of rubber and plastic products (82 %), repair and installation of machinery and equipment (63.6 %). It is emphasized that excessively high export orientation of innovative products in the conditions of socio-political instability and intensification of globalization processes creates potential risks for the economic security of the country. Three groups of factors influencing innovation activity in Ukraine are substantiated, which include: the level of industrialization of the economy and manufacturability of industrial production; customs policy, foreign economic influence, economic globalization; institutional and macroeconomic environment, special legal framework, mental features of entrepreneurial behavior, etc. It is empirically proven that the low level of innovation of domestic industrial products is a consequence of the long-term policy of agrarianization of the national economy and at the same time unstable dynamics of development of manufacturing industries. The structure of value added of domestic industrial productions is constructed and the place of Ukraine and the EU countries in the world rating on value of an index of economic globalization, de facto is defined. A critical analysis of the legal framework for the implementation of state customs policy of Ukraine. Proposals to the domestic legislation on regulatory and legal regulation and rationalization of innovation parks as an effective way to increase the level of innovation and growth of industrial production are substantiated.

The Effect of Labor Market Contract Type on Productivity Growth of the Iran's Manufacturing Industries

The Effect of Labor Market Contract Type on Productivity Growth of the Iran's Manufacturing Industries

MACRO FACTOR, MARKET VOLATILITY, AND STOCK-BOND CORRELATION: A DYNAMIC MIXED DATA SAMPLING FORECAST

This paper explores how macroeconomic fundamentals affect the long-run dynamics in the volatility of and correlation between the stock and bond market. We use China as a laboratory by employing the GARCH-MIDAS and DCC-MIDAS models, which possess proven ability to capture the long-run component of second-moment market performance in a rapidly-growing economy. With actual data and predictivity evaluation, the finding is that the industrial production growth rate accounts for 32.04% of variations in the total conditional volatility for Chinese stocks, and the industrial production growth volatility drives 29.63% of movements in the total conditional volatility for Chinese bonds. Our proposed model is particularly advantageous in long-run volatility forecasts. Moreover, the present study complements the literature concerning the impacts of macro factors on the time-varying correlations between China’s stock and bond markets. We find weak evidence in this regard, probably due to the absence of multi-market macro-strategy investors that prevail in more developed markets.

Regional reindustrialization patterns and productivity growth in Europe

ABSTRACT After a long period of deindustrialization, Europe faces ‘the need to reverse the declining role of industry’, as the European Union officially claims, to relaunch productivity. Despite this strong political claim, scientifically sound analyses on whether a reindustrialization process takes place, and if it is accompanied by a relaunch of productivity, are still missing. Drawing on the path-dependence theoretical framework, different reindustrialization patterns are conceptually identified and operationally associated with European NUTS-2 regions thanks to an original database of value added at (sub-manufacturing) sectoral regional level in different time spans. Results suggest that the patterns are associated with different degrees of industry productivity growth. Ad-hoc policies accompanying different reindustrialization modes are suggested. They can help to achieve a critical mass of reindustrialization that could potentially stimulate a still missing effect on aggregate productivity increase.

A NOTE ON UNCERTAINTY DUE TO INFECTIOUS DISEASES AND OUTPUT GROWTH OF THE UNITED STATES: A MIXED-FREQUENCY FORECASTING EXPERIMENT

Utilizing a mixed data sampling (MIDAS) approach, we show that a daily newspaper-based index of uncertainty associated with infectious diseases can be used to predict, both in- and out-of-samples, low-frequency movements of output growth for the United States (US). The predictability of monthly industrial production growth and quarterly real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth during the current period of heightened economic uncertainty due to the COVID-19 pandemic is likely to be of tremendous value to policymakers.

Event potential of the tourist destination «DUBNO» as a tool for innovative development of the region


 
 
 
 The article presents the substantiation that the development of the event potential of the tourist destination «Dubno» is a tool for innovative development of the region. The study used general and special scientific research methods, including structural and functional analysis, statistical method and comparative analysis. Substantiation of the research results was carried out on the basis of information sources of the State Statistics Service of Ukraine, the State Service of Tourism and Resorts of Ukraine, Dubno City Council and data from other scientific and official sources. The concept of potential potential of the tourist direction is defined, which is proposed to be a complex concept that includes a set of resources of a certain area that are used or can be used in the practice of events to attract tourists, as well as conditions that have direct or indirect impact on resource base. The main components of the event potential of the tourist direction of Dubno are analyzed and the main problems of its use are given. Natural and anthropogenic tourism and recreational-resource, natural and socio-economic conditions influencing the development of event potential of the studied tourist direction are also described. The role of the event industry in the development of tourism of the territory and its part in the increase of tourist flows as a result of the organization of tours with the use of event potential is characterized. An analysis of the development potential of the Dubno tourist destination was carried out, based on the results of which it was determined that its use will fully contribute to the growth of tourist flows, as the city has many opportunities to organize events of both local and national importance. The shortcomings that may hinder the rapid growth of the destination as a developed center of event tourism, including large-scale festival events, including insufficient accommodation and catering facilities, lack of large entertainment centers and bad-quality roads, which reduced additional investment in development of the tourist infrastructure. It is proved that the development of the event potential of a tourist destination is a tool for innovative development of the region, as it involves achieving sustainable growth of gross domestic product, industrial production and investment as a necessary basis for forming a system of necessary conditions to improve social and innovation sphere.
 
 
 

Problems of ensuring innovative development of the Ukrainian industry

The article provides a comparative assessment of innovation undertaken by the industrial sector in Ukraine, Poland and Germany in domestic and foreign markets. The authors point out that in the conditions of global instability caused by Russia’s military aggression against Ukraine, innovation is not only a requirement for socio-economic development, but also a prerequisite for security. The key reasons for low innovativeness of industrial products in Ukraine are identified. The authors identify the structure of value added of domestic industrial production and the place of Ukraine and the EU countries in the global ranking according to the globalization index. The authors justify their proposals concerning regulations and ways of rationalizing the activity of innovation parks as an effective means of increasing the level of innovation and the growth of industrial production.

Factors Affecting Changes in Broker Credit Directives in the Colombo Stock Exchange of Sri Lanka

Regulators use changes in market credit directives to control the potential destabilizing speculative behavior of investors and to inhibit excessive stock market volatility. This paper investigates macroeconomic and market factors associated with regulatory changes in broker credit directives in the Colombo Stock Exchange of Sri Lanka. We use a unique sample of changes in broker credit directives issued by the Securities and Exchange Commission of Sri Lanka during the high volatility period from 2010 to 2012 and employ a probit regression model to examine the factors affecting changes in such directives. We find that inflation, industrial production growth, trading volume, and market volatility significantly impact changes in broker credit directives. Although stock market returns and growth in broker credit volumes show no impact standing alone, they exert an important influence together. The SEC's regulatory actions on broker credit seem to be driven by market volatility, stock returns, and growth in broker credit volume.

Extreme price co-movement of commodity futures and industrial production growth: An empirical evaluation

This paper studies how the extreme price co-movement of commodity futures indicates industrial production (IP) growth. In this regard, we model synchronized movements and large price changes into one measure by characterizing upside and downside price extremes. We find that the derived price extremes are positively associated with IP growth over the next quarter. We further conclude that such impact is not symmetric, as the impact led by downside extremes is robust whereas that of upside extremes is not. Our results reinforce the informational friction theory as well as those financial studies that emphasize downside risk.

Decomposition of Output, Productivity and Market Structure Changes

Building on the recent development in the literature on production function identification and decomposition methods, in this paper we examine the sources of output and productivity growth in China’s manufacturing industries from 1998 to 2007 using firm-level data. We first decompose the industry output growth into contributions stemming from the growth of the surviving firms and market dynamics, and then further decompose the former into the input factor deepening and firm productivity growth. To accommodate heterogeneity across firms in terms of production technology and sources of growth, we consider a nonparametric production function and decompose firm output growth at both the mean and different quantiles of the output distribution. Nonparametric estimation techniques and recentered influence functions are used to facilitate our decomposition. In addition, we decompose the aggregate industry productivity growth into three sources, viz., survivors’ productivity growth, market dynamics, and reallocation of market shares. Given the market-oriented economic reforms undergoing in China during our sample period, contributions to aggregate productivity coming from dynamic ownership changes are also examined.

What influences stock market co-movements between China and its Asia-Pacific trading partners after the Global Financial Crisis?

This paper investigates the stock market co-movements between China and its 12 trading partners in the Asia-Pacific region after the Global Financial Crisis. The Dynamic Conditional Correlation (DCC) - Mixed Data Sampling (MIDAS) model is adopted to extract short and long-run correlations. The author utilizes the weekly conditional correlations to detect contagion and explores transmission mechanisms by regressing the monthly economic and financial variables on the monthly conditional correlations. The empirical results show that recent events (specifically, the Shanghai stock market crash, the US-China tariff war, and the COVID-19 pandemic) have increased the contagion incidences across the stock markets in China and its trading partners. Moreover, bilateral trade and market similarities are major drivers of stock market co-movements between China and developed partners as well as between China and emerging partners. Apart from country-pair-specific factors, common factors (such as the Chinese illiquidity pressure) also affect the co-movements between Chinese and its partners' stock markets during the whole and turmoil periods. Besides, the regression results for contagion episodes are mixed. On the one hand, stock market co-movements are irrelevant to most economic fundamentals, indicating pure contagion. On the other hand, differences in industrial production growth and market size affect stock market co-movements between China and its emerging partners.

The empirics of long-term Mexican government bond yields

ABSTRACT This paper presents empirical models of Mexican government bond (MGB) yields based on monthly macroeconomic data. The current short-term interest rate has a decisive influence on MGB yields, after controlling for inflation and growth in industrial production. John Maynard Keynes claimed that long-term government bond yields move in lockstep with the short-term interest rate. The models presented in this paper show that Keynes’s claim holds for MGB yields. This has important policy implications for Mexico. The empirical findings of the paper are also relevant for ongoing debates in macroeconomics.

Economic pressures on airlines’ safety performance

We investigate if general economic conditions influence aviation safety across the whole sector. Specifically, the study explores the relationship among aviation accidents and incidents for Part 121 US commercial airlines with fuel prices, stock market volatility, industrial production growth, and treasury bill rates. Our findings suggest that most of the variables under consideration exhibit a strong association with airline safety. Importantly, we examine two plausible channels that may explain these results; managerial decisions and the effect on “human factor”. Analysis of airline financial data, health, and safety violations, along with airline employee satisfaction levels, suggests that it is more likely that the economy influences aviation safety through managerial decisions. This study confirms theoretical predictions about reductions on firms’ quality standards in periods of financial stress and liquidity constraints. The findings of the study have important implications for regulators and other stakeholders.

Elements of Output and Productivity Growth: A Study of the 2-Digit Manufacturing Industries in Andhra Pradesh, India

The study estimates sources of output and productivity growth of the 2-digit manufacturing industries as well as total manufacturing industry in Andhra Pradesh during the period from 1981-82 to 2010-11. A stochastic frontier model with a translog production function is used to estimate the sources of output and total factor productivity growth (TFPG) of the 2-digit manufacturing industries of the state. The sources of output growth become input growth effect and TFPG whereas TFPG consists of adjusted scale effect (ASC), technological progress (TP) and technical efficiency effect (TEC). The empirical results show that input growth effect is the major contributor to output growth in Andhra Pradesh manufacturing, and TFPG too incorporates a positive and significant effect on output growth in the majority of the 2-digit industries of the state during the study periods.

ОЦЕНКА ВЗАИМОСВЯЗИ ПРОМЫШЛЕННОГО ПРОИЗВОДСТВА И ЭКОЛОГИЧЕСКОГО ПРОФИЛЯ РЕГИОНА

The relevance of the research is conditioned by the necessity to strengthen the control over the state of ecological space of regions, which is caused by the significant growth of the load on the environment of the regions, the priority of which is industrial growth within the framework of following the state policy of import substitution in the conditions of strict sanctions restrictions of the Western countries. In this connection the task of formation of ecological profile of the region and analysis of interrelation between the growth of industrial production and environmental load of the region is of particular urgency and practical importance. To solve this problem, in this article the author investigates the processes of the regional spatial and sectoral structure development in terms of correlation between the dynamics of industrial production and the changes of the regional ecological profile (using the example of the Perm Region), in order to identify and assess the relationship between the dynamics of industrial production and the changes in the ecological profile of the region. The subject of the study is the relationship between the dynamics of industrial production and changes in the ecological profile of the region. The goal of the study is to establish and assess the relationship between the dynamics of industrial production and changes in the ecological profile of the region. The ecological profile of the region in the framework of this study is understood as a system of indicators, which characterize the ecological situation on the territory of the region and make it possible to assess the ecological burden on the environment of the region. The formation of the system of indicators, constituting the ecological profile of the region, will allow to carry out an objective analysis of the technogenic load on the ecological system of the region. Thus, the formation of the system of indicators seems to be the primary task in achieving the goal of the study. Research objectives are the following: - to perform a theoretical review of scientific research in the field of analysis and assessment of the environment state and environmental safety of industrial regions; - to consider the existing methodological approaches to the assessment of the environmental component of the territories’ development and ratings of the regions’ environment state; - to form a system of indicators revealing the ecological profile of the region (on the example of the Perm Region); - to develop a methodology for assessing the dynamics of the region's environmental profile; - to identify and assess the relationship between the dynamics of industrial production and the ecological profile of the region. The following research methods have become the basis of the study: analysis, synthesis, synthesis, grouping, systematization and classification. To solve individual problems, methods of comparative and statistical analysis, tabular and graphical representation of data, organizational and economic modeling, integral and correlation analysis have been used. The materials of the study are the scientific works of leading Russian academic economists dealing with the problems of the impact of intensification of territorial development, including industrial complex on the environment of the regions, as well as the official statistical data of state statistics agencies and the results of studies of various rating agencies. In the article an author's definition of the concept of "ecological profile of the region" and a system of indicators is offered, which disclose its content and make it possible to conduct an objective analysis of the technogenic burden on the environment of the region. To establish and assess the relationship between the dynamics of industrial production and changes in the ecological profile of the region the authors have developed an author's methodology of the ecological profile state estimation which includes calculation of integral indices of positive and negative impact on the environment and evaluation of dependence of the calculated indices on the index of regional industrial production by correlation method. The proposed methodological approach has been approbated using the Perm Territory as an example and as a result direct correlation between intensification of industrial production and growth of environmental load expressed in deterioration of the region's ecological profile has been revealed. The results obtained confirm the determining role of industrial production in the ecological profile of the Perm Territory and the need to intensify the processes of ecologization of production in view of increasing pressure on the environment

Расчет локальных поправочных коэффициентов кадастровой стоимости для земельных участков, граничащих с автомобильными дорогами, методом парных продаж (на примере Республики Крым)

With the development of society and its socio-economic relations, the growth of industrial production, the intensification of anthropogenic impact on the environment, the area of land with an unsatisfactory ecological state has increased. When cadastral valuation of real estate objects, the impact of stationary sources of pollution is most often taken into account, the emissions of which are 3.2 times higher than air pollution from mobile sources. The authors considered the method of paired sales for calculating local correction factors in the cadastral valuation of roadside areas of highways. It was established that in the zone of increased pollution level (from 0 to 50 m from the edge of the roadway) there are 34 land plots with the type of permitted use "individual housing construction" (IZhS). The results of the calculations showed that the correction factor for the location is 0.83 in the urban area. Zuya and 0.76 in the village. Kind. Thus, the cadastral value of these real estate objects will be reduced by 17 and 24 %, respectively. The results obtained make it possible to accurately cadastral value of land plots experiencing a strong technogenic impact of highways.

Spiritual side of advertising and values of regional media products

The paper considers advertising communication in the aspect of socio-cultural activity. The study shows that advertising reflects the desire of the Russian society for a global association, for the fulfillment of universal human values, performs the functions of social communication, and has signs of a media product. Special attention is paid to the spiritual side of advertising, since it reflects the new vital needs of a person, an active influence on the way of life, the system of values of individuals. It is proved that the media represent media opportunities for the implementation of advertising. Media technologies for transmitting non-verbal information, digitalization of mass media, online mode expand the communicative capabilities of advertising activities. The entire information and advertising process is reflected in the development of regional advertising and communication channels. At the moment, the regional media space of Mordovia offers such types of advertising as commercial, institutional, industrial, consumer. It should be noted that the digital indicators reflect a stable, consistent movement of regional society from the industrial-social to the public-consumer stage of development. This confirms the fact that a fairly large number of media platforms are occupied by consumer advertising. Industrial advertising is characterized by the steady growth, which is somewhat characterized by “downturns”, which may be explained by seasonal changes in the functioning of joint-stock companies. In general, the small growth in industrial production steadily achieved by the Republic of Mordovia over the past ten years is reflected in the qualitative and quantitative improvement of the corresponding type of advertising.

Регулирование инновационных процессов в новом технологическом и мирохозяйственном укладах

It is noted that during the pandemic there was a strong kick for bioengineering, as well as information and communication technologies, the transition to a new technological world is completed. At the same time, the shift to a new integrated global economic order has accelerated. Three options for its formation are presented: 1 ‒ the Chinese communist model; 2 ‒ the democratic system (demonstrated by India); 3 ‒ the system represented by the West. The first two options share the focus on the growth of public welfare. The third system (mainly in the United States and Great Britain) solves economic and political issues with the help of technologies for manipulating public consciousness. The opportunities for the EAEU countries (including Russia) are being considered, primarily the unused scientific and production potential due to inaccessible loans to finance working capital. It is shown that industrial production growth is possible in Russia due to import substitution, but to achieve this it is necessary to change the monetary policy. Export for rubles and not only to Europe is considered to be a positive factor. Thus, it is important that the proceeds are directed to lending to the manufacturing sector.