Individual Parks Research Articles

Potential impacts of changing climate on nature-based tourism: A case study of South Africa’s national parks

Climate change could potential have significant impacts on the global tourism industry through changes in accessibility, comfort levels, and geographic or seasonal changes to attractions. Global and regional studies based on climate indices suggest that there will be global shifts in tourism, with many of the currently warmer areas potentially experiencing decreases in tourism. These include much of the global south, where nature-based tourism is both an important contributor to economic output and believed to be vulnerable to climate change. Protected areas form the core of nature-based tourism in many developing countries and are also directly or indirectly dependent on this tourism for their funding. However, comparatively little empirical work has been done on protected area tourism, particularly in developing countries. We modelled the relationship between occupancy and mean monthly temperature at each of South Africa’s 19 national parks and estimated the potential change in demand as a result of climate change. We found significant quadratic or linear relationships between occupancy and temperature for all parks. A single network-wide model could not capture all the location-specific temperature and tourism demand dynamics occurring at individual parks. The temperature models explained over 50% of the variance in historical occupancy for 17 parks, suggesting that climate change may have a significant impact on the timing and magnitude of demand across the network. Based on projected future temperatures, visitation rates across all parks could decline by nearly 4% by 2050, with most of the decline in Kruger National Park, which has the lion’s share of visitors. Conservation implications: The results are of concern given that tourism proceeds generated by Kruger National Park are used to subsidise the operating budgets of the entire park system, which would put the capacity for conservation activities at risk, suggesting that measures to alleviate climate discomfort to tourists should be explored by management.

Analysis on the Impact of Forest Park Facilities on the Performance of Forest Park Tourism: An Empirical Study of Forest Parks in China

ABSTRACT Based on data from forest parks and cities on the macrolevel from 2010 to 2016, we built panel data and evaluated the performance of forest tourism according to the aspects of tourism revenue and number of tourists. With an individual and time fixed-effect panel model, we measure the impacts of four types of facilities on the development of forest tourism for the first time. The study shows that the number of vehicles does not significantly influence tourism revenue or number of tourists, but walkways and lodging facilities do, while catering facilities significantly influence the number of tourists but not tourism revenue. Meanwhile, the impacts of different facilities on forest tourism revenue and number of tourists differ across forest parks at different levels and in different regions as well as across individual parks at the national level.

Park Quality and Road Walkability in Greater Noida, India

In urbanizing India, walkability and outdoor physical activities are essential for a healthy lifestyle. Urban roads need to be assessed for walkability, and public parks need to be assessed as spaces for physical activities. Not many studies have looked at both the aspects together, and use of GIS is not prevalent. This study demonstrates use of GIS to examine various parameters of walkability and parks in the city of Greater Noida, India. GIS was found highly effective for collecting information before performing survey of selected sectors, post-field data visualization, and data integration to understand spatial variability of walkability and usefulness of individual parks. Only one of the sectors was identified as having better walkability as well as good quality of parks for physical activities. Many low-income sectors did not have parks. Walkability parameters had a spatial pattern within each sector, and urban and rural sectors differed in providing walkability.

Baseline Conditions and Projected Future Hydro-Climatic Change in National Parks in the Conterminous United States

The National Park Service (NPS) manages hundreds of parks in the United States, and many contain important aquatic ecosystems and/or threatened and endangered aquatic species vulnerable to hydro-climatic change. More effective management of park resources under future hydro-climatic uncertainty requires information on both baseline conditions and the range of projected future conditions. A monthly water balance model was used to assess baseline (1981–1999) conditions and a range of projected future hydro-climatic conditions in 374 NPS parks. General circulation model outputs representing 214 future climate simulations were used to drive the model. Projected future changes in air temperature (T), precipitation (p), and runoff (R) are expressed as departures from historical baselines. Climate simulations indicate increasing T by 2030 for all parks with 50th percentile simulations projecting increases of 1.67 °C or more in 50% of parks. Departures in 2030 p indicate a mix of mostly increases and some decreases, with 50th percentile simulations projecting increases in p in more than 70% of parks. Departures in R for 2030 are mostly decreases, with the 50th percentile simulations projecting decreases in R in more than 50% of parks in all seasons except winter. Hence, in many NPS parks, R is projected to decrease even when p is projected to increase because of increasing T in all parks. Projected changes in future hydro-climatic conditions can also be assessed for individual parks, and Rocky Mountain National Park and Congaree National Park are used as examples.

Field Philosophy and the Chinese National Park System

ABSTRACT This is an essay in environmental philosophy on the way toward field philosophy, using the Chinese National Park System (CNPS) as a case study. The CNPS was initiated in 2015, which began with the assumption of state ownership, to be passed down from generation to generation, with the aim of addressing the problems such natural reserves traditionally have and will continue to face, put into a Chinese context. The CNPS makes it possible to unify the current multiple management structure and correct the practice that has given priority to economic benefits. One key element of the CNPS is the resettlement of local residents from parklands. This revives perennial questions of the nature of the human-land relationship, and parallels the history of the US National Park system. I claim that three ethical principles should be used for the migration of people out of parks: informed consent, participation, and sufficiency. I also analyze four pilot projects’ plans of CNPS, and find that the three ethical principles were already present, albeit in a limited and indirect fashion. In future plans for individual national parks, this situation should be improved. Finally, I identify other opportunities and challenges for doing field philosophy on CNPS.

The comparative financial and economic performance of protected areas in the Greater Kruger National Park, South Africa: functional diversity and resilience in the socio-economics of a landscape-scale reserve network

Economic contributions of park-tourism are rarely documented for individual parks in developing countries or made relevant to management or governance concerns. If economic monitoring is to aid management, economic studies of tourism are a useful starting point but traditionally yield only narrow metrics or are applied only to public parks despite many parks being connected to private or communal reserves. We evaluated a network of private and public reserves – the Greater Kruger National Park (GKNP) – comparing economic contributions of member reserves while also attributing a range of values in financial, social and political domains to different components of the system, thus enabling integration of results with resilience-oriented management frameworks and decision-making processes. We show that the diversity of management units corresponds with a diversity of values that we argue underpins institutional resilience. Although private reserves constitute only 12% of the land area, visitor spending there is responsible for over 60% of employment, tax and GDP contributions. The national park is less commercialized but accounts for almost all domestic visits by maintaining affordable access, performing a vital political and social function. However, weak community and joint-governance undermines resilience and limits the ability of stakeholders to act on economic monitoring data.

Top-down and bottom-up processes to implement biological monitoring in protected areas

Achieving biodiversity conservation objectives and targets requires environmental management agencies to undertake monitoring. Several management practices have been used but are they successful? Using SANParks as an example, we focus on three cases of national parks that use different techniques to implement environmental monitoring. We assessed a top-down, bottom-up and an integrated approach to setting targets using Table Mountain, Mokala and Bontebok National Parks respectively. Attainment of national and international objectives from State of Biodiversity assessment scores and achievement of objectives within individual Park Management Plans served as measurement criteria. We highlight several reasons for lack of achievement of objectives and targets for protected areas and illustrate that setting of objectives and monitoring must have complete full integration into park operations, both on staff and budget scales, rather than be seen as an external function from service divisions within parks or external service providers. An integrated approach to setting of objectives and targets of national and international importance is best achieved via the robust implementation of strategic adaptive management with interventions, measurement, reflection and adaptation integrated as learning by doing. Our results may not be unique but only a few organizations implement adaptive management in its full context.

History of urban planning in Veliky Novgorod. The evolution and comparative characteristics of the architecture of ancient Novgorod of the XI — XV centuries and landscaping the urban space of modern Veliky Novgorod.

The article discusses the history of the formation of the city of Veliky Novgorod through the prism of urban planning techniques at the stages of foundation of the city in the tenth century. (in XI - XII centuries. in other versions), trade and craft development and housing expansion, the Mongol invasion and fragmentation, World War II, postwar times and its present state. The peculiarities of the architectural and planning structure of Novgorod are characteristic of most ancient cities, as well as their own identical features of the city that distinguish it from others, both at the beginning of formation and in modern realities. Based on the analysis of the architectural monuments of the 11th — 15th centuries, before and after the formation of the eternal republic, that have survived to our days. A pattern of a change in architectural styles in the selected historical period of time was discovered. Among them are such landmark buildings as the Novgorod Detinets, the shaft of the town and the Oleksiyivska (White) Tower, St. Sophia Cathedral, St. Nicholas Cathedral, the Church of the Savior on Neredytsia and many other churches, cathedrals and temples. The current state of gardening in Veliky Novgorod is shown in connection with the environmental situation, climate, geographical factors on the examples of already existing, reconstructed, only laid, recently realized parks, squares, other green public areas. One of the modern park projects, aimed at improving the state of landscaping of the city and rational use of free space, with its indicated disadvantages and advantages, as well as the feasibility of implementation, is presented. The given subjective assessment of the current state of greening the city as a whole and the example of individual parks, forest parks, squares, embankments, etc., as well as compared with previous years. For this purpose, the above-mentioned project plan was used, as well as the official summary of the results of renovation works on the city's administrative site.

The unaddressed threat of invasive animals in U.S. National Parks

Invasive species, both plants and animals, are a long-standing threat to the National Parks of the United States. For nearly two decades the National Park Service has implemented a service-wide invasive plant management program without a commensurate program focusing on invasive animals. While individual park units are struggling to sufficiently address the threat of invasive terrestrial and aquatic animal species, a system-wide effort could bring the resources and capacity needed to address a challenge of this magnitude. We present our key findings from a detailed review about invasive animal species and their management by the National Park Service. We assert that the global threat of invasive animals substantially undermines the National Park Service mission. Coordinated action could improve the ability for the National Park Service to meet the challenge, and partnering with neighboring agencies and invasive species networks outside of the National Park Service is essential for success. Public engagement, cooperation and support is also critical and can be accomplished through strategic engagement efforts. Finally, the National Park Service would benefit from the development of an invasive animal program that includes structured decision support, adaptive management and monitoring, the organizational structure to meet the highest needs, and capitalizing on the significant opportunities that exist through the appropriate use of emerging technologies.

“Because We Don’t Want to Run in Smog”: Problems with the Sustainable Management of Sport Event Tourism in Protected Areas (A Case Study of National Parks in Poland and Slovakia)

The practice of active and qualified tourism in national parks in Poland and Slovakia has longstanding traditions. Primarily, these parks have been a place of individual recreational activity, as well as a place to educate and convene with nature. Recently, sport tourism, which is characterized by the participation of tourists in mass organized sporting events mainly of a competitive nature, has been gaining more popularity. Even though this activity takes place in protected areas, sports are the main priority, rather than educational goals. Natural values have the primary function of enriching emotional experiences, and exploring wildlife is not an end in itself. Running events are now at the head of the list as the most popular sporting events in Poland and in Slovakia. The authors of the article focused on protected areas in Poland and Slovakia, largely because these countries were considering organizing one of the world’s biggest sports events together: The Winter Olympic Games (2022). The purpose of the study was to recognize the attitude of Polish and Slovak national park authorities toward the organization of mass sports events in protected areas. A diagnostic survey was conducted using the method of interviews with the directors of Polish and Slovak national parks. The research results shed light on the current state of development of sports event tourism in protected areas in the two countries. The article examines the response of Polish and Slovak park authorities to the changes of the current era of shifting societal needs regarding physical development, in particular with regard to the sustainability of protected areas. Currently, there is a lack of a strategic approach toward the development of sports tourism in national parks in Poland and Slovakia. The answers given in the interviews create an image that indicates a differentiated approach to the issue of permitting the organization of sports events in the areas of national parks. It turns out that the practice in these areas is different in individual parks. The diagnosis presented in the article indicates that it is necessary to undertake interdisciplinary and international research among environmentalists, economists, sociologists, anthropologists, and physical culture specialists in order to develop methods for measuring the impact of sporting events organized in natural areas in this part of Europe.

Are combi parks just as useful as regular parks for fatteners for part-time group housing of rabbit does?

<p>Group housing of lactating rabbit does is desirable from a welfare standpoint, but agonistic behaviour can cause severe skin injuries, which are undesired for animal welfare. Park layout, creating hiding places and escape possibilities, may help redirect attention away from fighting, which could in turn help prevent skin damage. An experiment was performed to test whether more damaging behaviour would occur in a combi park (with nest box panels) after mixing, compared to a regular park for fatteners, as nest box panels would obstruct does when escaping aggressive interactions. In addition, the position of the PVC pipe underneath the platform differed between parks (longitudinal or transversal), resulting in different escape routes. Twenty-two parks were used, in which 5 does per park were grouped at 23 d of lactation until weaning at 36 d of lactation. Skin injuries were scored at 4 d after grouping and on the day before weaning. The presence of nest box panels in a combi park and the position of the PVC pipe underneath the platform did not affect the level of skin damage. Moderate to severe injuries were observed, mostly at the hind quarters, ears and head. Five to 6% of the does were severely injured (wounds). There was a positive relationship between the average skin injury per park at 4 d after grouping and at weaning. On average, average injury score per park increased from grouping to weaning, but there are differences between individual parks. From this experiment it can be concluded that group housing of lactating rabbit does involves animals getting injured. In fact, 5 to 6% of the does were severely injured (wounds). Social dynamics of group housed does are insufficiently understood and might be important to reduce damaging behaviour in group housing.</p>

Analysis of factors affecting urban park service area in Beijing: Perspectives from multi-source geographic data

The rapid process of urbanization aggravates the imbalance between the supply and demand of urban public services. Urban parks are among the most important urban public services, and their use efficiency has been an important index for urban planning. Therefore, it is essential to estimate well their service area and influencing factors. Traditional survey data used to analyze the characteristics of urban park services are limited by small samples and high cost. Owing to thriving information communication technologies, vast amounts of human activity data have become available that enable understanding of human travel behavior. In this study, we analyzed a park service area, which is defined as the zone of influence of individual parks, in Beijing, and the factors that influence the service area. First, the service area was estimated using 1-SDE based on mobile phone signaling data. A multiple linear regression model was then used to analyze the influence of factors on the park service area. The results show that (1) external factors including population density, the number of commercial facilities, and traffic convenience have significant influences on the park service area; (2) employment places positively influence the park service area on the weekday; and (3) other factors such as park design and park reputation had inconsistent effects on the park service area, in either sign or significance, regarding the weekday and the weekend. The findings of this study will be of practical value when designing parks or undertaking city planning in the future.

Toward converting some individual parks into smart parks in Kerbela city

The city of Kerbela is from the famous holy cities in Iraq and in the world where the holy shrine of Imam Hussein there. This city suffers from lack of suitable parking area for the vehicles coming to this city. This study selects a surrounding section which is approximately the same as other sections surrounding the city center. Knowing the problems in this section give a comprehensive picture for parking problems in the whole city. The study area has serious parking problems; therefore five off-street parks have been surveyed for two days during ordinary day and the other one in religious day (Thursday at day and night). Other types of data have been collected such as vehicular flow and pedestrian flow in order to select the best management for this area. The location of these five parks is on the north side of the city facing the main arterial street surrounding the holy city and in the opposing direction to the main garage called Al-Garage Al-Muhad from which different trips end and start. The analysis results of field data show that parking behavior differs in the ordinary day from the day of religious issues. It is a specific location has been assigned for one park with multi-stories in the same area as alternative of these separated parks. In addition, it was found that there is a need for managing pedestrian movement related to the parking vehicles in this area. This study also suggests using smart parking system as first step towards building intelligent transportation system to manage the parking facilities.

Active Greening or Rewilding the city: How does the intention behind small pockets of urban green affect use?

The smaller size of mini-parks in relation to conventional parks makes them a flexible and adaptable greening option for high-density neighbourhoods, despite limiting their individual service capacity. Consequently, some densely populated cities have developed clusters of mini-parks to meet intense recreational demands. We endeavoured to study the factors that support visits to mini-park groups, rather than to individual parks, taking 106 mini-park groups within Nanjing as samples. We utilised Tencent user density (TUD) data to trace the visit intensity of these groups and integrated multi-source data to measure their internal and external features. By establishing a regression model series, we investigated how the mini-park groups' internal amenities, proximity to surrounding recreation-related facilities, neighbourhood features, and layout affected their visit intensity over time (day/night, week/weekend). The results showed that larger open sites, proximate restaurants, higher density of commerce, offices and residents, and higher housing prices promoted visits, whereas greater neighbourhood green coverage discouraged visits. We also found that the service provision of most mini-park groups in Nanjing was inefficient or unbalanced, and that most mini-parks within a group worked competitively rather than complementarily. These findings can inform future decision making and mini-park planning in Nanjing and similar cities.

Environmental Coalitions and the Limits of Science

This article examines the origins, evolution, ideology, and political impact of an environmental coalition in the 1970s. Two wilderness activists in northwestern Ontario challenged established preservationist groups to shift their advocacy from public battles over management policy for individual parks, to design and promote a system of provincially-owned wilderness parks. To build public support and maximize their political clout, the two advocates persuaded five groups to form the Coalition For Wilderness (CFW) in 1973. Unfortunately CFW was mostly a two-man show. Constituent groups gave insufficient material support because of their diverse interests, economic woes, and the “free rider” problem. Nevertheless, CFW’s tactic of privately lobbying park planners within the Ontario Ministry of Natural Resources had some political impact. It generated policy information and educated the public about the need for a wilderness park system, thereby supporting the parallel efforts of the bureaucrats. Ironically, the coalition’s scientific rationale for protecting wilderness limited its influence among planners and the wider advocacy community, both of whom regarded recreational and other reasons for wilderness protection as more politically defensible than science. This difficult episode taught the CFW leadership valuable lessons, enabling Ontario preservationists to build more successful coalitions in the 1980s and 1990s.

Park attributes that encourage park visitation among adolescents: A conjoint analysis

Parks provide opportunities for people of all ages to engage in physical activity, connect socially with family and friends, and have contact with nature. Despite these benefits, park visitation among adolescents is particularly low; however, little is known about what attributes would attract adolescents to visit parks. This study examined the relative importance of park features that might influence their decision to visit a park. Adolescents were recruited in 2014–5 from four secondary schools located in Melbourne, Australia. Participants completed an adaptive choice based conjoint (ACBC) task during one school class-lesson. This methodology makes it possible to identify the relative importance of individual park features. Ten park attributes were included in the survey and part-worth utility and importance scores were estimated for each attribute with Hierarchical Bayes analyses using Sawtooth Software. Participants (n=92) had a mean age of 14.7 years (SD=1.0) and 57% were female. Importance scores showed that playground slides (particularly long steep slides) were the most important attribute for park visitation (16.1%; 95% CI=15.0, 17.2), followed by an absence of rubbish/graffiti (13.0%; 95% CI=11.2, 14.8), and the presence of swings (12.4%; 95% CI=11.4, 13.3), walking/cycling paths (12.1%; 95% CI=11.0, 13.2) and BMX tracks/skate bowls (10.6%; 95% CI=9.3, 11.9). These findings can assist those involved in designing parks to identify attributes that should be prioritised to ensure visitation by adolescents is maximised. The novel methodology utilised may be transferable to other studies of the built environment among other population groups.

Urban greenness influences airborne bacterial community composition

Urban green space provides health benefits for city dwellers, and new evidence suggests that microorganisms associated with soil and vegetation could play a role. While airborne microorganisms are ubiquitous in urban areas, the influence of nearby vegetation on airborne microbial communities remains poorly understood. We examined airborne microbial communities in parks and parking lots in Eugene, Oregon, using high-throughput sequencing of the bacterial 16S rRNA gene on the Illumina MiSeq platform to identify bacterial taxa, and GIS to measure vegetation cover in buffer zones of different diameters. Our goal was to explore variation among highly vegetated (parks) versus non-vegetated (parking lots) urban environments. A secondary objective was to evaluate passive versus active collection methods for outdoor airborne microbial sampling. Airborne bacterial communities from five parks were different from those of five parking lots (p=0.023), although alpha diversity was similar. Direct gradient analysis showed that the proportion of vegetated area within a 50m radius of the sampling station explained 15% of the variation in bacterial community composition. A number of key taxa, including several Acidobacteriaceae were substantially more abundant in parks, while parking lots had higher relative abundance of Acetobacteraceae. Parks had greater beta diversity than parking lots, i.e. individual parks were characterized by unique bacterial signatures, whereas parking lot communities tended to be similar to each other. Although parks and parking lots were selected to form pairs of nearby sites, spatial proximity did not appear to affect compositional similarity. Our results also showed that passive and active collection methods gave comparable results, indicating the “settling dish” method is effective for outdoor airborne sampling. This work sets a foundation for understanding how urban vegetation may impact microbial communities, with potential implications for designing neighborhoods and open space systems that foster better human health.

Scale dependency in effectiveness, isolation, and social-ecological spillover of protected areas.

Protected areas are considered vital for the conservation of biodiversity. Given their central role in many conservation strategies, it is important to know whether they adequately protect biodiversity within their boundaries; whether they are becoming more isolated from other natural areas over time; and whether they play a role in facilitating or reducing land-cover change in their surroundings. We used matching methods and national and local analyses of land-cover change to evaluate the combined effectiveness (i.e., avoided natural-cover loss), isolation (i.e., changes in adjacent areas), and spillover effects (i.e., impacts on adjacent areas) of 19 national parks in South Africa from 2000 to 2009. All parks had either similar or lower rates of natural-cover loss than matched control samples. On a national level, mean net loss of natural cover and mean net gain of cultivation cover decreased with distance from park boundary, but there was considerable variation in trends around individual parks, providing evidence for both increased isolation and buffering of protected areas. Fourteen parks had significant positive spillover and reduced natural-cover loss in their surroundings, whereas five parks experienced elevated levels of natural-cover loss. Conclusions about social-ecological spillover effects from protected areas depended heavily on the measures of land-cover change used and the scale at which the results were aggregated. Our findings emphasize the need for high-resolution data when assessing spatially explicit phenomena such as land-cover change and challenge the usefulness of large-scale (coarse grain, broad extent) studies for understanding social-ecological dynamics around protected areas.

Top‐down conservation targets and bottom‐up management action: creating complementary feedbacks for freshwater conservation

Abstract Conservation targets are useful policy tools, indicating a degree of political intent and allowing purposeful conservation planning. However, target setting and implementation often occur at different scales. A largely unmet challenge is to establish mutual feedbacks between national‐scale target setting and local‐scale ecological realities and management actions. Freshwater conservation in South Africa has been advanced through the participatory setting of a freshwater conservation target (20% of each freshwater ecosystem type). This paper presents the response of a conservation agency, South African National Parks, to achieving the national target. In a first step, achievement of the national target was contextualized within the agency's mandate to conserve biodiversity through 19 National Parks. In the second step, information was scaled down further to reflect the relative contribution of an individual park (Tankwa‐Karoo National Park) to freshwater conservation in South Africa. At agency level, national‐scale data translated into several recommendations to influence the future expansion and design of protected areas, helped to articulate key messages regarding the organization's contribution to meeting national targets, and triggered the development of strategic objectives to promote in‐house capacity for effective freshwater conservation. Park‐level application of national‐scale data informed recommendations for management, research and monitoring. At the same time, local‐scale survey data highlighted deficiencies in the national data layers. Establishing feedbacks between top‐down setting of conservation targets and bottom‐up implementing of management actions is desirable and possible, but also intricate. To promote the establishment of such feedbacks, four generic insights are drawn from this case study: top‐down targets and bioregional‐scale biodiversity data have enabling utility; effective feedbacks can only be realized through systemic conservation governance; social factors are at least as important as technical advances; national‐scale maps are not necessarily accurate but can still be used to facilitate co‐learning and dynamic refinement. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Protected Area Tourism in a Changing Climate: Will Visitation at US National Parks Warm Up or Overheat?

Climate change will affect not only natural and cultural resources within protected areas but also tourism and visitation patterns. The U.S. National Park Service systematically collects data regarding its 270+ million annual recreation visits, and therefore provides an opportunity to examine how human visitation may respond to climate change from the tropics to the polar regions. To assess the relationship between climate and park visitation, we evaluated historical monthly mean air temperature and visitation data (1979–2013) at 340 parks and projected potential future visitation (2041–2060) based on two warming-climate scenarios and two visitation-growth scenarios. For the entire park system a third-order polynomial temperature model explained 69% of the variation in historical visitation trends. Visitation generally increased with increasing average monthly temperature, but decreased strongly with temperatures > 25°C. Linear to polynomial monthly temperature models also explained historical visitation at individual parks (R2 0.12-0.99, mean = 0.79, median = 0.87). Future visitation at almost all parks (95%) may change based on historical temperature, historical visitation, and future temperature projections. Warming-mediated increases in potential visitation are projected for most months in most parks (67–77% of months; range across future scenarios), resulting in future increases in total annual visits across the park system (8–23%) and expansion of the visitation season at individual parks (13–31 days). Although very warm months at some parks may see decreases in future visitation, this potential change represents a relatively small proportion of visitation across the national park system. A changing climate is likely to have cascading and complex effects on protected area visitation, management, and local economies. Results suggest that protected areas and neighboring communities that develop adaptation strategies for these changes may be able to both capitalize on opportunities and minimize detriment related to changing visitation.