Indirect Effect Of Anthropogenic Aerosols Research Articles

Aerosol-Induced Changes in Atmospheric and Oceanic Heat Transports in the CESM2 Large Ensemble

Abstract The total poleward energy transport (PET) is set by the top of atmosphere radiation flux, and is therefore sensitive to any process which can alter those fluxes, particularly in the shortwave. One example is the direct and indirect effects of anthropogenic aerosols, which increase the local reflection of solar radiation back to space. The historic emission of sulphur dioxide, which peaked in the northern midlatitudes during the 1980s, has been proposed as a primary contributor to historic anomalies in cross-equatorial energy transport, as well as related processes such as a shift in the tropical rainband. In this study, we analyze simulations from the CESM2 large ensemble and single-forcing projects to better understand the forced response of PET to historical forcings. First, analysis of the single-forcing project reveals that the position of the ITCZ responds in a non-linear manner to greenhouse gas forcing in CESM2. This type of non-linearity has been found previously in the context of the aerosol-only simulations in the CESM2 single-forcing project, but may be the first identification of a similar effect in the greenhouse gas-only simulations. Second, through analysis of the full CESM2 large ensemble simulations, we find that anomalous heat transport occurred in both the atmosphere (through the mean meridional circulation and atmospheric eddies) and in the oceans (through the Atlantic and Indo-Pacific sectors) due to a variety of related processes including the Hadley cells, the midlatitude storm tracks, the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC), and the Pacific wind-driven subtropical gyre.

Global surface solar radiation and photovoltaic power from Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 climate models

In this study, historical surface solar radiation (1850–2005) and future photovoltaic power output (2006–2100) are analyzed to investigate the spatial distribution and long-term variation in global solar energy based on the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) models and the Global Energy Balance Archive (GEBA) database. The results show that global mean surface solar radiation significantly decreased by 0.014 W m−2 year−1 in 1850–2005. According to the Model for Interdisciplinary Research on Climate (MIROC5), surface solar radiation significantly decreased by 3.42 W m−2 year−1 in 1951–1992 and increased by 4.75 W m−2 year−1 in 1993–2005. Global dimming and brightening were observed before and after the 1990s, respectively. The transition of surface solar radiation from dimming to brightening in Europe and the southeastern United States was detected in the 1980s. Stations in Northeast China, Japan, Southeast Africa, the Middle East, and the west coast of India all showed renewed decreasing trends after the 1990s. The direct and indirect effects of anthropogenic aerosols and cloudiness in different periods and regions were the main causes of the changes. To better understand the utilization of global solar energy, global potential photovoltaic power outputs were estimated in future scenarios with an empirical model. Significant increases in potential photovoltaic power are expected in East Asia, Europe, Central Africa and Central America in 2006–2100. The largest increase is expected in central China, where increases are occurring at 3 kWh m−2 year−1. Significantly decreasing potential photovoltaic power is observed in North Africa, the Middle East, Central Asia and Australia. The greatest decrease is observed in the Tibetan Plateau area (approximately −3.0 kWh m−2 year−1 in 2006–2100). With respect to the global distribution of potential photovoltaic power output, large quantities of photovoltaic power are distributed in the northern and southern parts of Africa, the Middle East, the Tibetan Plateau area, the west coasts of North and South America and most of Australia. The yearly mean sum photovoltaic power in these regions is larger than 2000 kW h m−2. Due to the long-term decreasing photovoltaic power (0.67 kWh m−2 year−1) expected worldwide in 2006–2100, effective and rational utilization of solar energy is of great importance.

Application of online-coupled WRF/Chem-MADRID in East Asia: Model evaluation and climatic effects of anthropogenic aerosols

Abstract The online-coupled Weather Research and Forecasting model with Chemistry with the Model of Aerosol Dynamics, Reaction, Ionization, and Dissolution (referred to as WRF/Chem-MADRID) is applied to simulate meteorological fields, air quality, and the direct and indirect effects of anthropogenic aerosols over East Asia in four months (January, April, July, and October) in 2008. Model evaluation against available surface and satellite measurements shows that despite some model biases, WRF/Chem-MADRID is able to reproduce reasonably well the spatial and seasonal variations of most meteorological fields and chemical concentrations. Large model biases for chemical concentrations are attributed to uncertainties in emissions and their spatial and vertical allocations, simulated meteorological fields, imperfectness of model representations of aerosol formation processes, uncertainties in the observations based on air pollution index, and the use of a coarse grid resolution. The results show that anthropogenic aerosols can reduce net shortwave flux at the surface by up to 40.5–57.2 W m −2 , Temperature at 2-m by up to 0.5–0.8 °C, NO 2 photolytic rates by up to 0.06–0.1 min −1 and the planetary boundary layer height by up to 83.6–130.4 m. Anthropogenic aerosols contribute to the number concentrations of aerosols by up to 6.2–8.6 × 10 4 cm −3 and the surface cloud concentration nuclei at a supersaturation of 0.5% by up to 1.0–1.6 × 10 4 cm −3 . They increase the column cloud droplet number concentrations by up to 3.6–11.7 × 10 8 cm −2 and cloud optical thickness by up to 19.8–33.2. However, anthropogenic aerosols decrease daily precipitation in most areas by up to 3.9–18.6 mm during the 4 months. These results indicate the importance of anthropogenic aerosols in modulating regional climate changes in East Asia through aerosol direct and indirect effects, as well as the need to further improve the performance of online-coupled models.

Numerical study of the effect of anthropogenic aerosols on spring persistent rain over Eastern China

The effect of anthropogenic aerosols on the spring persistent rain (SPR) over eastern China is investigated by using a high-resolution Community Atmosphere Model version 5.1 (CAM5.1). The results show that the SPR starts later due to anthropogenic aerosols, with a shortened duration and reduced rainfall amount. A reduction in air temperature over the low latitudes in East Asia is linked to anthropogenic aerosols; so is a weakened southwesterly on the north side of the subtropical high. Meanwhile, air temperature increases significantly over the high latitudes. This north-south asymmetrical thermal effect acts to reduce the meridional temperature gradient, weakening the upper-level westerly jet over East Asia and the vertical motion over southeastern China. As a result, the SPR is reduced and has a much shorter duration. The indirect effect of anthropogenic aerosols also plays an important role in changing the SPR. Cloud droplet number concentration increases due to anthropogenic aerosols acting as cloud condensation nuclei, leading to a reduction in cloud effective radius over eastern China and a reduced precipitation efficiency there.

Climate impacts of ice nucleation

Several different ice nucleation parameterizations in two different General Circulation Models (GCMs) are used to understand the effects of ice nucleation on the mean climate state, and the Aerosol Indirect Effects (AIE) of cirrus clouds on climate. Simulations have a range of ice microphysical states that are consistent with the spread of observations, but many simulations have higher present‐day ice crystal number concentrations than in‐situ observations. These different states result from different parameterizations of ice cloud nucleation processes, and feature different balances of homogeneous and heterogeneous nucleation. Black carbon aerosols have a small (−0.06 Wm−2) and not statistically significant AIE when included as ice nuclei, for nucleation efficiencies within the range of laboratory measurements. Indirect effects of anthropogenic aerosols on cirrus clouds occur as a consequence of increasing anthropogenic sulfur emissions with different mechanisms important in different models. In one model this is due to increases in homogeneous nucleation fraction, and in the other due to increases in heterogeneous nucleation with coated dust. The magnitude of the effect is the same however. The resulting ice AIE does not seem strongly dependent on the balance between homogeneous and heterogeneous ice nucleation. Regional effects can reach several Wm−2. Indirect effects are slightly larger for those states with less homogeneous nucleation and lower ice number concentration in the base state. The total ice AIE is estimated at 0.27 ± 0.10 Wm−2 (1σ uncertainty). This represents a 20% offset of the simulated total shortwave AIE for ice and liquid clouds of −1.6 Wm−2.

On the linear additivity of climate forcing‐response relationships at global and continental scales

ABSTRACTWithin the context of the prediction, detection and attribution of climate change, a number of studies have explicitly or implicitly assumed that individual climate responses to individual forcing agents can be linearly added to obtain the total climate response to the sum of the forcing agents. This assumption of the ‘linear additivity of forcing‐response relationships’ has been tested by previous studies, but it remains controversial whether linear additivity holds with all combinations of forcing agents, such as ‘greenhouse gases plus indirect effects of anthropogenic aerosols’ or ‘greenhouse gases plus solar irradiance’. This study explored whether linear additivity holds in 5‐year mean temperature/precipitation responses to various combinations of forcing agents in the 20th century and in a future‐emissions scenario at global and continental scales. We used Model for Interdisciplinary Research on Climate version 3, which includes the first and second indirect effects of aerosols. The forcing factors considered were well‐mixed greenhouse gases, the direct and indirect effects of sulphate and carbon aerosols, ozone, land‐use changes, solar irradiance and volcanic aerosols (the latter three factors were specified only in the 20th‐century runs). By performing and analysing an enormous matrix of forcing runs, we concluded that linear additivity holds in temperature responses for all of the combinations of forcing agents at the global and continental scales, but it breaks down for precipitation responses in certain cases of future projections.

Modeling of the Second Indirect Effect of Anthropogenic Aerosols in East Asia

AbstractThis study investigated the second indirect climatic effect of anthropogenic aerosols, including sulfate, organic carbon (OC), and black carbon (BC), over East Asia. The seasonal variation of the climatic response to the second indirect effect was also characterized. The simulation period for this study was 2006. Due to a decrease in autoconversion rate from cloud water to rain as a result of aerosols, the cloud liquid water path (LWP), and radiative flux (RF) at the top of the atmosphere (TOA) changed dramatically, increasing by 14.3 g m-2 and decreasing by −4.1 W m-2 in terms of domain and annual average. Both LWP and RF changed most in autumn. There were strong decreases in ground temperature in Southwest China, the middle reaches of the Yangtze River in spring and autumn, while maximum cooling of up to −1.5 K occurred in the Chongqing district. The regional and annual mean change in ground temperature reached −0.2 K over eastern China. In all seasons except summer, precipitation generally decr...

Diurnally Asymmetric Trends of Temperature, Humidity, and Precipitation in Taiwan

AbstractIn this work, 45 years (1961–2005) of hourly meteorological data in Taiwan, including temperature, humidity, and precipitation, have been analyzed with emphasis on their diurnal asymmetries. A long-term decreasing trend for relative humidity (RH) is found, and the trend is significantly greater in the nighttime than in the daytime, apparently resulting from a greater warming at night. The warming at night in three large urban centers is large enough to impact the average temperature trend in Taiwan significantly between 1910 and 2005. There is a decrease in the diurnal temperature range (DTR) that is largest in major urban areas, and it becomes smaller but does not disappear in smaller cities and offshore islands. The nighttime reduction in RH is likely the main cause of a significant reduction of fog events over Taiwan. The smaller but consistent reductions in DTR and RH in the three off-coast islands suggests that, in addition to local land use changes, a regional-scale process such as the indirect effect of anthropogenic aerosols may also contribute to these trends. A reduction in light precipitation (<4 mm h−1) and an increase in heavy precipitation (>10 mm h−1) are found over Taiwan and the offshore islands. The changes in precipitation are similar to the changes of other areas in Asia, but they are different from those of the United States, Europe, and the tropical oceans. The latter do not show any reduction in light precipitation.

Winter “weekend effect” in southern Europe and its connections with periodicities in atmospheric dynamics

Winter weekly cycles of different climatic variables have been detected over Spain during the 1961–2004 period. The 13 analyzed series come from stations placed on different climatological and geographical areas with different level of urban influence. Therefore, the weekly cycles can hardly be related with local effects. Contrarily, we suggest that the weekly cycles may be related with changes in the atmospheric circulation over Western Europe, which may be due to some indirect effect of anthropogenic aerosols. Particularly interesting is the observed increase in Sea Level Pressure over Southern Europe during the weekends and consequently a decrease of anticyclonic conditions during the central weekdays.

Global model simulations of the impact of ocean-going ships on aerosols, clouds, and the radiation budget

Abstract. International shipping contributes significantly to the fuel consumption of all transport related activities. Specific emissions of pollutants such as sulfur dioxide (SO2) per kg of fuel emitted are higher than for road transport or aviation. Besides gaseous pollutants, ships also emit various types of particulate matter. The aerosol impacts the Earth's radiation budget directly by scattering and absorbing the solar and thermal radiation and indirectly by changing cloud properties. Here we use ECHAM5/MESSy1-MADE, a global climate model with detailed aerosol and cloud microphysics to study the climate impacts of international shipping. The simulations show that emissions from ships significantly increase the cloud droplet number concentration of low marine water clouds by up to 5% to 30% depending on the ship emission inventory and the geographic region. Whereas the cloud liquid water content remains nearly unchanged in these simulations, effective radii of cloud droplets decrease, leading to cloud optical thickness increase of up to 5–10%. The sensitivity of the results is estimated by using three different emission inventories for present-day conditions. The sensitivity analysis reveals that shipping contributes to 2.3% to 3.6% of the total sulfate burden and 0.4% to 1.4% to the total black carbon burden in the year 2000 on the global mean. In addition to changes in aerosol chemical composition, shipping increases the aerosol number concentration, e.g. up to 25% in the size range of the accumulation mode (typically >0.1 μm) over the Atlantic. The total aerosol optical thickness over the Indian Ocean, the Gulf of Mexico and the Northeastern Pacific increases by up to 8–10% depending on the emission inventory. Changes in aerosol optical thickness caused by shipping induced modification of aerosol particle number concentration and chemical composition lead to a change in the shortwave radiation budget at the top of the atmosphere (ToA) under clear-sky condition of about −0.014 W/m² to −0.038 W/m² for a global annual average. The corresponding all-sky direct aerosol forcing ranges between −0.011 W/m² and −0.013 W/m². The indirect aerosol effect of ships on climate is found to be far larger than previously estimated. An indirect radiative effect of −0.19 W/m² to −0.60 W/m² (a change in the atmospheric shortwave radiative flux at ToA) is calculated here, contributing 17% to 39% of the total indirect effect of anthropogenic aerosols. This contribution is high because ship emissions are released in regions with frequent low marine clouds in an otherwise clean environment. In addition, the potential impact of particulate matter on the radiation budget is larger over the dark ocean surface than over polluted regions over land.

Direct and indirect effects of anthropogenic aerosols on regional precipitation over east Asia

A regional coupled climate‐chemistry‐aerosol model is developed. It is used to assess the direct and indirect effects of anthropogenic sulfate and carbonaceous aerosols on regional climate over east Asia with a focus on precipitation. The simulated direct and first indirect effects for the most part reduce the solar radiation and hence decrease the surface temperature, while the second indirect effect generates both negative solar forcing and a substantial positive long‐wave forcing. It decreases the precipitation, but because of the cancelling effect, surface temperature does not change very much. With the interactively model‐calculated current aerosol loading and the combined direct/semidirect/first indirect effect, the simulated precipitation is reduced by about 10% in the fall and winter and by about 5% in the spring and summer. The second indirect effect has the largest impact, by itself decreasing the fall and winter precipitation from about 3% to 20%, depending on the autoconversion scheme assumed. The semidirect effect on precipitation is relatively small. An empirical orthogonal function analysis of climatological precipitation over east Asia since the last century shows a decreasing trend of the leading modes over most of China in the fall and winter, which is generally geographically consistent with the distribution of the model‐simulated precipitation reduction from anthropogenic aerosols.

Constraining the first aerosol indirect radiative forcing in the LMDZ GCM using POLDER and MODIS satellite data

The indirect effects of anthropogenic aerosols are expected to cause a significant radiative forcing of the Earth's climate whose magnitude, however, is still uncertain. Most climate models use parameterizations for the aerosol indirect effects based on so‐called “empirical relationships” which link the cloud droplet number concentration to the aerosol concentration. New satellite datasets such as those from the POLDER and MODIS instruments are well suited to evaluate and improve such parameterizations at a global scale. We derive statistical relationships of cloud‐top droplet radius and aerosol index (or aerosol optical depth) from satellite retrievals and fit an empirical parameterization in a general circulation model to match the relationships. When applying the fitted parameterizations in the model, the simulated radiative forcing by the first aerosol indirect effect is reduced by 50% as compared to our baseline simulation (down to −0.3 and −0.4 Wm−2 when using MODIS and POLDER satellite data, respectively).

Cloud susceptibility and the first aerosol indirect forcing: Sensitivity to black carbon and aerosol concentrations

Present‐day global anthropogenic emissions contribute more than half of the mass in submicron particles primarily due to sulfate and carbonaceous aerosol components derived from fossil fuel combustion and biomass burning. These anthropogenic aerosols increase cloud drop number concentration and cloud albedo. Here, we use an improved version of the fully coupled climate/chemistry models to investigate cloud susceptibility and the first indirect effect of anthropogenic aerosols (the Twomey effect). We examine the correspondence between the model simulation of cloud susceptibility and that inferred from satellite measurements to test whether our simulated aerosol concentrations and aerosol/cloud interactions give a faithful representation of these features. This comparison provides an overall measure of the adequacy of cloud cover and drop concentrations. We also address the impact of black carbon absorption in clouds on the first indirect forcing and examine the sensitivity of the forcing to different representations of natural aerosols. We find that including this absorption does not change the global forcing by more than 0.07 W m−2, but that locally it could decrease the forcing by as much as 0.7 W m−2 in regions where black carbon emissions are pronounced. Because of the nonlinear relationship between cloud drop number and aerosol number concentrations, the total forcing does not equal the sum of the forcing from each individual source. Our estimated total first indirect forcing is −1.85 W m−2, with −0.30 W m−2 associated with anthropogenic sulfate, −1.16 W m−2 associated with carbonaceous aerosols from biomass burning, and −0.52 W m−2 associated with carbonaceous aerosols from fossil fuel combustion. Estimates of forcing by sulfate and total carbonaceous aerosols increase to −0.31 and −1.67 W m−2, respectively, if natural emissions of organic aerosols are only 8.4 Tg yr−1, but decrease to −0.26 and −1.27 W m−2 if they are as large as 42 Tg yr−1. Even larger estimates of forcing are derived if dust and sea‐salt emissions are not included. The effect of aerosol abundance on cloud life cycle may be important but is not treated in this study.

Studies of the aerosol indirect effect from sulfate and black carbon aerosols

The indirect effect of anthropogenic aerosols is investigated using the global climate model National Center for Atmospheric Research Community Climate Model Version 3 (NCAR CCM3). Two types of anthropogenic aerosols are considered, i.e., sulfate and black carbon aerosols. The concentrations and horizontal distributions of these aerosols were obtained from simulations with a life‐cycle model incorporated into the global climate model. They are then combined with size‐segregated background aerosols. The aerosol size distributions are subjected to condensation, coagulation, and humidity swelling. By making assumptions on supersaturation, we determine cloud droplet number concentrations in water clouds. Cloud droplet sizes and top of atmosphere (TOA) radiative fluxes are in good agreement with satellite observations. Both components of the indirect effect, i.e., the radius and lifetime effects, are computed as pure forcing terms. Using aerosol data for 2000 from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), we find, globally averaged, a 5% decrease in cloud droplet radius and a 5% increase in cloud water path due to anthropogenic aerosols. The largest changes are found over SE Asia, followed by the North Atlantic, Europe, and the eastern United States. This is also the case for the radiative forcing (“indirect effect”), which has a global average of −1.8 W m−2. When the experiment is repeated using data for 2100 from the IPCC A2 scenario, an unchanged globally averaged radiative forcing is found, but the horizontal distribution has been shifted toward the tropics. Sensitivity experiments show that the radius effect is ∼3 times as important as the lifetime effect and that black carbon only contributes marginally to the overall indirect effect.

Precipitation changes in a GCM resulting from the indirect effects of anthropogenic aerosols

An atmospheric GCM coupled to a mixed‐layer ocean model is used to study changes in rainfall due to the indirect effects of anthropogenic aerosols. The model includes treatments of both the first and second indirect effects. The most striking feature of the equilibrium rainfall response to the indirect effects of anthropogenic aerosols is a southward shift of the equatorial rainfall. We hypothesize that this is caused by a hemispheric asymmetry in the cooling of the sea surface. This is supported by another pair of experiments, in which the model is run with prescribed present‐day SSTs. In one experiment the standard model is used, and in the other the SSTs in the Northern Hemisphere are increased by 1 K in the calculation of the surface fluxes, to mimic the effect of a return to pre‐industrial conditions. Compared to the run with increased NH SST, the standard run shows a southward shift of equatorial rainfall, similar to that obtained as a response to anthropogenic aerosols.

Indirect effect of sulfate and carbonaceous aerosols: A mechanistic treatment

The indirect effect of anthropogenic aerosols, whereby aerosol particles change cloud optical properties, is the most uncertain component of climate forcing over the past 100 years. Here we use a mechanistic treatment of droplet nucleation and a prognostic treatment of the number of cloud droplets to study the indirect aerosol effect from changes in carbonaceous and sulfate aerosols. Cloud droplet nucleation is parameterized as a function of total aerosol number concentration, updraft velocity, and an activation parameter, which takes into account the mechanism of sulfate aerosol formation. Where previous studies focussed either on sulfate aerosols or carbonaceous aerosols only, here we estimate the combined effect. The combined indirect aerosol effect amounts to −1.1 W m−2 for an internally mixed aerosol and −1.5 W m−2 for an externally mixed aerosol compared to −1.4 W m−2, which we obtained by empirically relating sulfate mass to cloud droplet number. In the case of an internally mixed aerosol, the contribution from increasing carbonaceous and sulfate aerosols is close to being additive as the individual simulations yield an indirect effect of −0.4 W m−2 due to anthropogenic sulfate aerosols and −0.9 W m−2 due to anthropogenic carbonaceous aerosols. The contribution of anthropogenic sulfate to the indirect effect is close to zero if an externally mixed aerosol is assumed, while the contribution of carbonaceous aerosols increases to −1.3 W m−2. The effect of sulfate in the external mixture approach is much smaller than that of carbonaceous aerosols because its burden only increases by a third of that of carbonaceous aerosols and because the mode radius of sulfate is much larger than that of black and organic carbon.

The sulfate-CCN-cloud albedo effect: A sensitivity study with two general circulation models

Aerosol particles, such as sulfate aerosols, can act as cloud condensation nuclei (CCN). The CCN spectrum and the water vapour supply in a cloud determine the cloud droplet number concentration (CDNC) and hence the shortwave optical properties of low-level liquid clouds. The capability of anthropogenic aerosols to increase cloud reflectivity and thereby cool the Earth's surface is referred to as the indirect effect of anthropogenic aerosols. To obtain an estimate of this effect on climate, we empirically relate the CDNC, and thus the cloud optical properties, of two general circulation models (GCM) to the sulfate aerosol mass concentration derived from a chemical transport model. Based on a series of model experiments, the normalized globally averaged indirect forcing is about − 1 W/m 2 and ranges from – 0.5 to − 1.5 W/m 2 in both GCMs for different experiments. However, it is argued that the total uncertainty of the forcing is certainly larger than this range. The overall agreement between the two climate models is good, although the geographical distributions of the forcing are somewhat different. The highest forcings occur in and off the coasts of the polluted regions of the Northern Hemisphere. The regional distribution of the forcing and the land/sea contrast are very sensitive to the choice of the CDNC-sulfate mass relationship. The general patterns of the forcing, and the appropriateness of the different CDNC-sulfate mass relationships, are assessed. We also examine the simulated droplet effective radii and compare them with satellite retrievals. DOI: 10.1034/j.1600-0889.47.issue3.1.x