Studies of the aerosol indirect effect from sulfate and black carbon aerosols

Abstract

The indirect effect of anthropogenic aerosols is investigated using the global climate model National Center for Atmospheric Research Community Climate Model Version 3 (NCAR CCM3). Two types of anthropogenic aerosols are considered, i.e., sulfate and black carbon aerosols. The concentrations and horizontal distributions of these aerosols were obtained from simulations with a life‐cycle model incorporated into the global climate model. They are then combined with size‐segregated background aerosols. The aerosol size distributions are subjected to condensation, coagulation, and humidity swelling. By making assumptions on supersaturation, we determine cloud droplet number concentrations in water clouds. Cloud droplet sizes and top of atmosphere (TOA) radiative fluxes are in good agreement with satellite observations. Both components of the indirect effect, i.e., the radius and lifetime effects, are computed as pure forcing terms. Using aerosol data for 2000 from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), we find, globally averaged, a 5% decrease in cloud droplet radius and a 5% increase in cloud water path due to anthropogenic aerosols. The largest changes are found over SE Asia, followed by the North Atlantic, Europe, and the eastern United States. This is also the case for the radiative forcing (“indirect effect”), which has a global average of −1.8 W m−2. When the experiment is repeated using data for 2100 from the IPCC A2 scenario, an unchanged globally averaged radiative forcing is found, but the horizontal distribution has been shifted toward the tropics. Sensitivity experiments show that the radius effect is ∼3 times as important as the lifetime effect and that black carbon only contributes marginally to the overall indirect effect.