Global surface solar radiation and photovoltaic power from Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 climate models

Abstract

In this study, historical surface solar radiation (1850–2005) and future photovoltaic power output (2006–2100) are analyzed to investigate the spatial distribution and long-term variation in global solar energy based on the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) models and the Global Energy Balance Archive (GEBA) database. The results show that global mean surface solar radiation significantly decreased by 0.014 W m−2 year−1 in 1850–2005. According to the Model for Interdisciplinary Research on Climate (MIROC5), surface solar radiation significantly decreased by 3.42 W m−2 year−1 in 1951–1992 and increased by 4.75 W m−2 year−1 in 1993–2005. Global dimming and brightening were observed before and after the 1990s, respectively. The transition of surface solar radiation from dimming to brightening in Europe and the southeastern United States was detected in the 1980s. Stations in Northeast China, Japan, Southeast Africa, the Middle East, and the west coast of India all showed renewed decreasing trends after the 1990s. The direct and indirect effects of anthropogenic aerosols and cloudiness in different periods and regions were the main causes of the changes. To better understand the utilization of global solar energy, global potential photovoltaic power outputs were estimated in future scenarios with an empirical model. Significant increases in potential photovoltaic power are expected in East Asia, Europe, Central Africa and Central America in 2006–2100. The largest increase is expected in central China, where increases are occurring at 3 kWh m−2 year−1. Significantly decreasing potential photovoltaic power is observed in North Africa, the Middle East, Central Asia and Australia. The greatest decrease is observed in the Tibetan Plateau area (approximately −3.0 kWh m−2 year−1 in 2006–2100). With respect to the global distribution of potential photovoltaic power output, large quantities of photovoltaic power are distributed in the northern and southern parts of Africa, the Middle East, the Tibetan Plateau area, the west coasts of North and South America and most of Australia. The yearly mean sum photovoltaic power in these regions is larger than 2000 kW h m−2. Due to the long-term decreasing photovoltaic power (0.67 kWh m−2 year−1) expected worldwide in 2006–2100, effective and rational utilization of solar energy is of great importance.