BackgroundThe value of carotid ultrasound in real-world practice remains controversial. We investigated the outcomes of people with vascular risk factors according to an easy carotid-plaque burden scale (CPB-scale). Predictive yield of the addition CPB-scale to ESC-SCORE2 (CPB-SCORE2 table) was assessed. MethodsA cohort of participants without preexisting cardiovascular disease (CVD) was evaluated for clinical outcomes according to the number of plaques by segment. The usefulness of the CPB-SCORE2 table was investigated. ResultsA total of 1004 patients were followed for a mean of 12.5 years for major adverse cardiovascular events (MACEs) and death. The CPB-scale was independently associated with MACEs; compared to those in the low-risk group, the corresponding adjusted hazard ratios (95% confidence intervals) for MACEs among the intermediate and high-risk groups were 13.1 (4.87–35.5) and 19.4 (7.27–51.9), respectively. Similarly, the risk of death was greater for participants stratified as high-risk than for those in the low-risk group (adjusted HR 3.36 [1.58–7.15]). According to our CPB-SCORE2 table, 149 of 178 (84%) CV events were detected in the high-risk group and exhibited greater sensitivity than did the SCORE2 Table, 84%; vs. 62%; but slightly less specificity, 62%; vs. 68%. Our table shows the improved performance of SCORE2; c-statistics: 0.74 vs. 0.68; p<0.001 for net reclassification index and integrated discrimination index. ConclusionsA simple prognostic CPB-scale was strongly associated with the long-term risk of developing a first MACE and all-cause death. Adding the CPB-scale to the SCORE2 may improve risk prediction with easy applicability in clinical practice.
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