Agricultural Production Index Research Articles

РЕГИОНАЛЬНЫЕ ТРЕНДЫ РАЗВИТИЯ АГРОПРОМЫШЛЕННОГО КОМПЛЕКСА

The agro-industrial complex is the basis for achieving the country’s food security. The Sverdlovsk region, which is part of the Ural Federal District, is characterized primarily by a developed industrial potential, the agro-industrial sector in the total volume of production reaches 6,4%. Along with this, the region fully meets the need for eggs, in terms of milk production, it is among the top 10 milk producers and ranks 1st in the Ural Federal District. Despite the fact that the index of agricultural production in 2022 compared to the level of 2021 in the Sverdlovsk region amounted to 127,4% compared to the Ural Federal District — 117,0% and in Russia — 114,8%, the share of the Sverdlovsk region in the all-Russian indicators is very small (1,43%) and tends to decrease. In order to increase self-sufficiency in the main types of agricultural products (meat, milk, potatoes, etc.) and to increase export potential (except fat-and-oil products) within the framework of a coordinated agro-industrial policy, it is necessary to strengthen subsidizing measures for agricultural producers, scientific and innovative development of the industry and the widespread dissemination of digital technologies.

베트남 도이머이 정책이 농업 생산에 미치는 영향

Exploiting the synthetic control method, we estimate the impact of Vietnam’s Doimoi, with an emphasis of household contracts and liberalization of agricultural distribution, on agricultural production. We estimate that Vietnam’s Doimoi caused 11.8% increase in agricultural production index, respectively, a year after the implementation of the Doimoi. We also find that, about 10 years after the implementation, agricultural production index increased by 25.4% due to the implementation of the Doimoi. One plausible explanation for the increase in agricultural production is that agricultural reform in the Doimoi significantly improved incentives for labor and contributed to the overall improvement of the agricultural sector.

Перспективы применения пространственного подхода к регулированию развития национального рынка FoodNet в контексте цифровизации

Studying the features of the formation and development of the national FoodNet market in the context of feder-al districts in the context of digital transformation is of particular interest in light of the high differentiation of the constituent entities of the Russian Federation and the growing digital divide between them. The aim of the arti-cle is to reveal conceptual-theoretical and applied aspects of the formation and development of the national FoodNet market in the context of digital transformation. In order to coordinate the spatial management of the national FoodNet market and clarify the understanding of agricultural integration and digital development, the authors of the article developed a model for constructing an interconnected model for coordinating the pro-cesses of digitalization of agriculture in the regions of the Russian Federation. The fundamental mechanisms of the digital economy and their spatial impact on the high-quality growth of the national FoodNet market are considered, and the indices of agricultural production and digital economy are evaluated. The empirical study was conducted using data from each federal district from 2010 to 2022 as the initial sample. The data obtained indicate that until 2015, in all federal districts, the degree of coordination of the development of agricultural sec-tors and the digital economy was less than 0.2. The digital adoption rate showed a moderate growth trend from 2016 to 2020, increasing by 583,33 % from 2010 to 2022, indicating that as the digital economy expands, the agricultural services sector is also developing in a qualitative manner. The authors proposed a number of measures to manage the processes of transformation of national agriculture to solve the problems of food se-curity in the constituent entities of the federal districts of the Russian Federation.

Устойчивое развитие АПК Волгоградской области в условиях цифровой трансформации

The sustainable development of the agricultural sector of regional economy is directly connected with the level of its innovative and digital development, which, in turn, mediates the readiness of the regional agro-industrial complex for digital transformation and transition to a fundamentally different technological mode of agricultural production. This paper presents the results of theoretical, scientific, and practical analysis of sustainable growth conditions of the regional agro-industrial complex by means of development of digital technologies and the level of innovative development. The research is based on the author’s concept of the interdependence of digital technologies’ use with the achievement of positive dynamics of the main indices of agricultural production in the region. The paper presents for discussion of the scientific community an original mathematical model of sustainable growth dependence of the agricultural sector of the regional economy on digital development index (DDI). The purpose of this study is a theoretical, scientific, and practical understanding of the use of the scientific and technical potential of agrarian economy of the region for the introduction of digital and innovative technologies in agricultural production in the context of overcoming the economic crisis that resulted from the COVID-19 pandemic and the return of the agro-industrial complex of the region to sustainable growth under Western sanctions. The result of this analysis, according to the authors, should be conclusions about the admissibility of scientific generalizations in the field of economic feasibility and the lack of alternatives to the use of digital technologies as a driver of sustainable development of the regional agro-industrial complex under the sanction’s pressure and overcoming the consequences of the COVID crisis. The results of the work can be used in the concept of sustainable development of the agrarian economy of the region, depending on development level of existing and promising digital ecosystems built on the domestic element base and Russian software use through the Digital Development Index (DDI), defined as a set of the given indices of digital and innovative infrastructure of the industry.

Состояние и динамика развития сельского хозяйства в Краснодарском крае

The article analyzes the state and dynamics of development in the modern period of agriculture in the Krasnodar Territory, which occupies a leading position in this industry in the country. The dynamics of the volume of production and the index of agricultural production, the balanced financial result – profit for the agro-industrial complex of the region as a whole are studied. The dynamics and structure of grain exports from the region have been studied. Federal and regional agricultural support programs are considered. In general, according to the results of the analysis, there are good results of the development of agriculture in the Krasnodar Territory in recent years, especially in 2022.

Rural Development Index (RDI) and GHG emissions of agricultural and livestock production: a spatial analysis of the Brazilian states

Rural Development Index (RDI) and GHG emissions of agricultural and livestock production: a spatial analysis of the Brazilian states

НАЦИОНАЛЬНЫЙ АГРАРНЫЙ ПРОДУКТ И ПЕРСПЕКТИВЫ ЕГО РОСТА

Agrarian growth is relevant for Russia in the face of geopolitical challenges. We introduce a new concept of national agricultural product to determine the potential for agricultural growth. We propose a methodology for assessing the national agricultural product. The national agricultural product is the volume of agricultural products produced, taking into account its availability, sufficiency and quantity to meet the needs of the country’s population. Using this technique, we estimated the national agricultural product of Russia and developed a forecast for the production of the main types of agricultural products based on ARIMA (Auto-Regressive Integrated Moving Average) econometric models. We consider these data not optimistic. Russia will not be able to achieve breakthrough agricultural growth. The agricultural production index will decline moderately. Grain production will also have a slight negative trend. Milk production will increase by 300 thousand tons annually. This will not allow reaching the level of 90% self-sufficiency in the country. We also predict a moderate decline in meat production. Therefore, Russian agriculture will not be able to enter the trajectory of dynamic development and will not be able to adequately respond to political and economic events. We believe that it is necessary to change approaches to managing agricultural growth. To do this, we have developed a strategy for managing the economic growth of agriculture. We used fuzzy cognitive logic technologies. We have proposed a set of strategic initiatives for the dynamic growth of the national agricultural product. We substantiated the strategy on the basis of forecasts of the parameters of the national agricultural product.

Digitalization is developing: the level of digitalization in Russia and the prospects for sustainable development

The article is devoted to the assessment of the current level of digitalization of agriculture in the Russian Federation. This article examines the technologies of digital transformation of agriculture, analyzes the indicators of digitalization, and identifies prospects for further development of digital technologies for agriculture, including the most priority areas of scientific research within this industry. The correlation analysis was also carried out between the level of technological, product, organizational and marketing innovations and the index of agricultural production in the federal districts of the Russian Federation. In addition, the article analyzes the project of the Ministry of Agriculture of the Russian Federation "Digital Agriculture". As a result of the conducted research, a number of conclusions were made about the current level of digital development of agriculture.

Identification and evolution of territorial space from the perspective of composite functions

At present, China is in a stage of unbalanced and insufficient development, in which territorial space with distinctive dominant functions, regional coordination, and reasonable layout, is an important guarantee for the healthy and sustainable development of the national economy and society. However, under the Chinese territorial spatial planning system, the spatio-temporal evolution of spatial multi-functionality has not received much attention, especially in urban agglomerations, which restricts the optimization of territorial space development and protection patterns. Therefore, analysis of the quality, structure and spatio-temporal evolution process of territorial space functions (TSFs). Based on the construction of a theoretical framework of territorial space composite functions, revised night-time light index, agricultural production index, and habitat quality were used to respectively characterize the quality of urban-agricultural-ecological space. Additionally, a coupling coordination degree model and spatial overlay analysis were used to measure the composite level of TSFs, to describe their spatio-temporal evolution characteristics comprehensively, and to summarize the composite mode of TSFs in urban agglomerations. The results demonstrate that from 2000 to 2020, the TSFs center of gravity in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region was in Beijing and Langfang, and the development direction of urban and agricultural space was opposite to that of ecological space. The TSFs composite level demonstrated an overall upward trend, and the level of coupling coordination degree was characterized by a circling spatial evolution from low to high and back to low, along the edge towns, to suburban areas of large cities, to central urban areas of large cities. Overall, urban development and agricultural production functions were strengthened while ecological maintenance function was weakened. The spatio-temporal evolution characteristics of the 27 TSFs composite types were portrayed, indicating that the TSFs had conflicting performance for their scale and composite features for their function, and that the territorial space composite function (TSCF) mainly appeared in suburban areas under the influence of multiple factors. The findings demonstrate a new approach to diagnose TSCF and analyze its spatio-temporal evolution, which can provide a reference for the planning and management of territorial space in urban agglomerations.

Dynamics of agribusiness product-institutional shifts

In the work with the help of classical regression analysis, changes in the structure of farm types were investigated depending on the indices of agricultural production and its belonging themselves to a particular category. As a dependent variable, the annual percentage differences in the typical structure of farms were used, and as independent – the index of agricultural production over the past period and the interaction of this index with the types of farms. According to the received model, the most significant factors were identified, including the categories of agricultural organizations and households, as well as the interaction of the production index with the household’s category. This fact confirms the scientific opinion that personal subsidiary farms continue to play a significant role in the country’s agrarian production, and it is necessary to consider in the formation and implementation of agro-industrial development strategies of different levels.

State agrarian policy and the efficiency of its implementation at the regional level

Structural and dynamic changes in directions, forms, volumes of state support for agricultural producers in the “post-sanction” period were considered from the standpoint of various scientists. A slight increase in the index of agricultural production, a transition from compensatory to incentive support measures, a significant development of small forms of business are predicted: farming, consumer and industrial cooperation. The author’s method of assessing the effectiveness of new forms of support is proposed based on comparing the amounts and directions of obtained subsidies with changes in the competitiveness of crop and livestock products. The approbation of this technique on agricultural production cooperatives in Udmurtia showed an increase in the state support efficiency, as well as the benefits of further specialization of the republic in the production of dairy products. The technique can be used by the authorities to improve agricultural policy.

Periodization of the dynamics and structure of the index of agricultural production in the Russian Federation and the Republic of Buryatia

Periodization of the dynamics and structure of the index of agricultural production in the Russian Federation and the Republic of Buryatia

ОСНОВИ БІРЖОВОЇ ТОРГІВЛІ НА ШЛЯХУ ДО ВИХОДУ НА СВІТОВІ ЗЕРНОВІ РИНКИ

The role of the commodity exchange as an element of development of agricultural domestic and international commodity markets is considered in the article. The definition of the essence of exchange trade by scientists is analyzed. As the commodity exchange is one of the forms of wholesale trade organization, the main stages of development of the exchange market in Ukraine were briefly considered. It is determined that despite a quite thorough study of exchange activities, there is a need for further study of the essence, role and content of the commodity exchange as an element of deve-lopment of international commodity markets. Thus, the exchange becomes an important corridor for Ukrainian exporters to enter world markets, which is one of the main price guidelines. Statistical information about the number and structure of exchanges by specialization is studied, their characteristics are given and the role in the development of the exchange market of Ukraine is shown. It was found that every year the number of exchanges, trying to operate in the commodity derivatives market and using agricultural products, decreases. The main factors for the inefficient functioning of agricultural exchanges in Ukraine are: firstly, the lack of interest of agricultural producers to sell on exchanges; secondly, low demand in the exchange market of agricultural products; thirdly, the lack of practice in futures contracts and options trading, and so on. Current trends in the development of the international commodity exchange market are identified. It was revealed that Ukraine is one of the main players in the international grain trade market, increasing production and export volumes annually. It was revealed that the main factors of effective activity of commodity exchanges are hedging instruments. The situation regarding the production and sale for export of grain agricultural products is analyzed. The main indicators of attracting agricultural products to world commodity trade are the growth of gross domestic product and growth of the agricultural production index. It was determined that the world exchange market is a dynamic structure that takes place in accordance with the growing and renewed needs of foreign countries, the growth of international trade standards, which is effective for Ukrainian farmers.

Identifying and Mapping the Responses of Ecosystem Services to Land Use Change in Rapidly Urbanizing Regions: A Case Study in Foshan City, China

Rapid urbanization has degraded some important ecosystem services and threatens socioeconomic sustainability. Although many studies have focused on the effect of urbanization on ecosystem services, the effect and its threshold have not been well-identified spatially. In this study, we propose a research framework by integrating nighttime light data, the InVEST (Integrated Valuation of Environmental Service and Tradeoffs) model, and a spatial response index to characterize the response of ecosystem services to rapid urbanization. We considered Foshan City as a case study to explore the effect of rapid urbanization on ecosystem services during 2000–2018. Our results showed that rapid urbanization resulted in a 49.13% reduction in agricultural production and a 10.13% reduction in habitat quality. The spatial response index of agricultural production, habitat quality, soil retention, water yield, and carbon sequestration were 14.25%, 2.94%, 0.04%, 0.78%, and 0.07%, respectively. We found that developing urban areas had the highest spatial response index, indicating that this area was the crucial area for future land management. We consider that our research framework can help identify the key areas affected by rapid urbanization. Visualizing the spatial response index and extracting the threshold for different levels of urbanization will be conducive to sustainable urban management and planning.

РОЛЬ ЦЕНТРАЛЬНО-ЧЕРНОЗЕМНОГО РЕГИОНА В АГРАРНОЙ ЭКОНОМИКЕ РОССИИ

With the aim of developing the national economy in the Russian Federation, economic regionalization has been widely used, which contributes to increasing the economic efficiency of regulating the productive forces in the country. The aim of the study is to assess the place and role of the Central Black Earth region in the economy of the agro-industrial complex of Russia. The research methodology is based on economic-statistical and correlation-regression analyzes. The scientific novelty of the research consists in identifying the patterns of development of the Central Black Earth region as an agrarian region. The practical significance of the study lies in the fact that taking into account the revealed patterns when developing strategies for the development of individual sectors of the agro-industrial complex will allow us to overcome the identified negative trend of reducing the production of certain types of agricultural products. The Central Black Earth region occupies a special place among 12 economic regions of Russia. It occupies no more than 1.0% of the total land area of the country, but ensures the production of 16.3% of agricultural products manufactured in the Russian Federation. The share of agricultural production in the gross regional product of the Central Black Earth region in 2019 remained 27.9%, which makes it possible to consider the Black Earth region as a region with a predominance of agaric production. An analysis of the indices of agricultural production in Russia and in the Central Black Earth region showed that the average growth index of agricultural production in 2011-2018 in the Central Black Earth region amounted to 116.1%, however, the dynamics of changes in these indices reflects a negative trend of deceleration, which can be described by a linear equation of the form y = -3.4867x + 131.8. Among the subjects of the Central Black Earth region, the maximum growth in the volume of agricultural production for 2005-2019. observed in the Belgorod region - 8.3 times, and the minimum in the Lipetsk region - 6.8 times

АНАЛИЗ РАЗВИТИЯ И ПОДДЕРЖКИ СЕЛЬСКОГО ХОЗЯЙСТВА РЕГИОНОВ НЕЧЕРНОЗЕМНОЙ ЗОНЫ

In order to develop a forecast of the regional agri-food systems, carried out at VIAPI named after A.A. Nikonov, an analysis of the development of agriculture in the regions of the Non-Black Earth Zone is carried out. The conclusion is made about the adaptation of agricultural producers in the zone to market conditions due to the contraction of agricultural production in comparison with 1990, while establishing the profitable work of most agricultural organizations. The uneven development of the regions of the zone was revealed in terms of the indices of agricultural, crop and livestock production (comparison of 2018 with 1990 and 2000), the structure of production by categories of farms, indicators of financial activity, state support, recommendations for its improvement were given. It is concluded that it is premature to exclude the Non-Black Earth Zone as a priority development area from the State Program for the Development of Agriculture and Regulation of Agricultural Product Markets.

НОВЫЕ ТЕНДЕНЦИИ В РАЗВИТИИ СЕЛЬСКОГО ХОЗЯЙСТВА И ПРИОРИТЕТЫ АГРАРНОЙ ПОЛИТИКИ В РОССИИ

The article analyzes the role of agriculture in the Russian economy, the main trends and problems of its development for 2014-2020. There is a decrease in the average annual indices of agricultural production for 2018-2020 compared to 2015-2017, an increase in anthropogenic pressure on the natural environment, an imbalance between the reduction of agricultural employment and the creation of alternative jobs in rural areas, uneven technological development of various categories of farms. The article substantiates the main measures of agrarian policy that ensure economic growth in agriculture, solving environmental and social problems in rural areas: improving state support for agriculture, priority development of small and medium-sized businesses, creating a modern innovation system in the agro-industrial complex.

МНОГОУКЛАДНОСТЬ РОССИЙСКОГО АПК: СОВРЕМЕННЫЕ РЕАЛИИ И ПРИОРИТЕТЫ РАЗВИТИЯ

The article examines the agrarian sector of the Russian economy from the point of view of its multi-structured structure. Differentiation of regions by key producers in terms of their share in total agricultural production is noted. During the period under review, the most active development is in peasant (farmer) households and individual entrepreneurs, the average value of the agricultural production index is 108.9%. Agricultural enterprises are characterized by an average production growth rate of 105.3%. Production by households has a steady downward trend. Considering the regional aspect of farming development, it is noted that with a decrease in the number of these economic entities, their share in the regional production of agricultural products increases annually, which may indicate the enlargement of this category of farms. At the same time, it is noted that small agribusiness to a greater extent than large economic entities is subject to the influence of various kinds of factors that restrain the conduct of expanded production on an innovative and technological basis. Some of them are: the financial climate of the farms; imperfection of logistics and sales systems, storage infrastructure; imbalance in the level and measures of state support; underdevelopment of the system of relations with the scientific and innovative sphere and, as a result, a low level of implementation interest and innovative activity. In this regard, the issues of in-depth study, correction of existing and elaboration of new organizational and economic mechanisms and strategic directions for the development of mixed agriculture, taking into account the specifics of each of the forms of agricultural management, are urgent. At the same time, the most important component of such a mechanism should be a well-developed state policy of technical and technological modernization of the agricultural sector, which ensures a high level of manufacturability and innovativeness of each category of farms.

FOOD SECURITY MANAGEMENT IN A DYNAMIC BUSINESS ENVIRONMENT

Introduction. The article presents a study of the current food security management system at the macro and micro levels in a dynamic business environment. Monographic, economic-statistical and abstract-logical scientific methods of economic research are used. The purpose of this article is a comprehensive study of the food security management system at the macro and micro levels in a dynamic business environment. Results. The main actual tasks of the economic security system of the enterprise are determined. The basic principles that increase the efficiency of the food security system (system, timeliness, continuity, planning) are presented. The modern technique of the food security system is determined. Among the main trends in the development of the food security system are fluctuations in the share of agriculture in GDP, a decrease in the share of those employed in agriculture from the total number of people employed in the country's economy and an increase in the index of agricultural production. These main factors may indicate a significant increase in labor productivity in agriculture and the instability of the grain market in the world. The scientific novelty in this article is the systematization of a set of modern administrative, insurance, legal, economic, security, regime, judicial and other measures to protect against unlawful encroachment, minimize or avoid possible losses. Conclusions. The offered basic personnel have practical value in the presented scientific research; information-analytical; economic; legal; technical and technological; resource activities carried out in the process of food security management at the macro and micro levels in a dynamic business environment. Prospects for further research in this area should be directed to the integrated system of food safety diagnostics as a set of interrelated organizational and legal measures carried out by special bodies, services, units aimed at protecting the important interests of individuals, organizations, regions and the state from illegal actions by real and / or potential individuals and / or legal entities that may lead to losses from food security breaches at the macro and micro levels in a dynamic business environment. Key words: management, food security, development, strategy, diagnostic system, business environment.

Finding the Appropriate Model to Evaluate the Price Indices of Domestic Agricultural Production in EU24

The structure of the European Union producer price indices, nominal total agricultural production varies from one country to another. The EU agricultural price indices involve the index of producer prices of agricultural products and the index of purchase prices of the means of agricultural production. The purpose of agricultural price indices is to unveil trends in the prices of individual agricultural products and purchase prices of the means of agricultural production. Moreover, the objective of the applying statistics on agricultural prices is to make comparisons between member states and also for economic analyses. Absolute agricultural prices are needed for many model calculations and for the ascertainment of price elasticity. The means through which these objectives could be achieved are believed to be when the absolute prices are compared between the member states, and also, when the products for which the prices from the respective member state are to be recorded for economic relevance. These objectives are not always compatible and sometimes require some compromise. In this study, we evaluate the price indices of domestic agricultural production as a whole in the EU24, using the most accurate association model of the Categorical Data Analysis. Figures from the Eurostat office calculated on annual base year from 2005-2017 were used to analyse this study. Since the main focus is to have a better understanding of producer price indices, nominal total domestic agricultural production, the analysis of association table (ANOAS) is given in order to ascertain the percentage of the data which is covered by each model. We find and estimate the association model with the best fit and in conclusion we find out that the Row-Effects Association Model (R) has the best fit because it covers 93% of the data, thereby giving the best fit among all.