НАЦИОНАЛЬНЫЙ АГРАРНЫЙ ПРОДУКТ И ПЕРСПЕКТИВЫ ЕГО РОСТА

Abstract

Agrarian growth is relevant for Russia in the face of geopolitical challenges. We introduce a new concept of national agricultural product to determine the potential for agricultural growth. We propose a methodology for assessing the national agricultural product. The national agricultural product is the volume of agricultural products produced, taking into account its availability, sufficiency and quantity to meet the needs of the country’s population. Using this technique, we estimated the national agricultural product of Russia and developed a forecast for the production of the main types of agricultural products based on ARIMA (Auto-Regressive Integrated Moving Average) econometric models. We consider these data not optimistic. Russia will not be able to achieve breakthrough agricultural growth. The agricultural production index will decline moderately. Grain production will also have a slight negative trend. Milk production will increase by 300 thousand tons annually. This will not allow reaching the level of 90% self-sufficiency in the country. We also predict a moderate decline in meat production. Therefore, Russian agriculture will not be able to enter the trajectory of dynamic development and will not be able to adequately respond to political and economic events. We believe that it is necessary to change approaches to managing agricultural growth. To do this, we have developed a strategy for managing the economic growth of agriculture. We used fuzzy cognitive logic technologies. We have proposed a set of strategic initiatives for the dynamic growth of the national agricultural product. We substantiated the strategy on the basis of forecasts of the parameters of the national agricultural product.