Index Time Series Research Articles

New developments in the analysis of catch time series as the basis for fish stock assessments: The CMSY++ method

Following an introduction to the nature of fisheries catches and their information content, a new development of CMSY, a data-limited stock assessment method for fishes and invertebrates, is presented. This new version, CMSY++, overcomes several of the deficiencies of CMSY, which itself improved upon the “Catch-MSY” method published by S. Martell and R. Froese in 2013. The catch-only application of CMSY++ uses a Bayesian implementation of a modified Schaefer model, which also allows the fitting of abundance indices should such information be available. In the absence of historical catch time series and abundance indices, CMSY++ depends strongly on the provision of appropriate and informative priors for plausible ranges of initial and final stock depletion. An Artificial Neural Network (ANN) now assists in selecting objective priors for relative stock size based on patterns in 400 catch time series used for training. Regarding the cross-validation of the ANN predictions, of the 400 real stocks used in the training of ANN, 94% of final relative biomass (B/k) Bayesian (BSM) estimates were within the approximate 95% confidence limits of the respective CMSY++ estimate. Also, the equilibrium catch-biomass relations of the modified Schaefer model are compared with those of alternative surplus-production and age-structured models, suggesting that the latter two can be strongly biased towards underestimating the biomass required to sustain catches at low abundance. Numerous independent applications demonstrate how CMSY++ can incorporate, in addition to the required catch time series, both abundance data and a wide variety of ancillary information. We stress, however, the caveats and pitfalls of naively using the built-in prior options, which should instead be evaluated case-by-case and ideally be replaced by independent prior knowledge.

New developments in the analysis of catch time series as the basis for fish stock assessments: The CMSY++ method

Following an introduction to the nature of fisheries catches and their information content, a new development of CMSY, a data-limited stock assessment method for fishes and invertebrates, is presented. This new version, CMSY++, overcomes several of the deficiencies of CMSY, which itself improved upon the “Catch-MSY” method published by S. Martell and R. Froese in 2013. The catch-only application of CMSY++ uses a Bayesian implementation of a modified Schaefer model, which also allows the fitting of abundance indices should such information be available. In the absence of historical catch time series and abundance indices, CMSY++ depends strongly on the provision of appropriate and informative priors for plausible ranges of initial and final stock depletion. An Artificial Neural Network (ANN) now assists in selecting objective priors for relative stock size based on patterns in 400 catch time series used for training. Regarding the cross-validation of the ANN predictions, of the 400 real stocks used in the training of ANN, 94% of final relative biomass (B/k) Bayesian (BSM) estimates were within the approximate 95% confidence limits of the respective CMSY++ estimate. Also, the equilibrium catch-biomass relations of the modified Schaefer model are compared with those of alternative surplus-production and age-structured models, suggesting that the latter two can be strongly biased towards underestimating the biomass required to sustain catches at low abundance. Numerous independent applications demonstrate how CMSY++ can incorporate, in addition to the required catch time series, both abundance data and a wide variety of ancillary information. We stress, however, the caveats and pitfalls of naively using the built-in prior options, which should instead be evaluated case-by-case and ideally be replaced by independent prior knowledge.

Digital Transformation and Innovation in Health for Future Health Services: Turkey Global Innovation Index Time Series Analysis Between 2018 and 2022

Digital Transformation and Innovation in Health for Future Health Services: Turkey Global Innovation Index Time Series Analysis Between 2018 and 2022

Vegetation Trend Detection Using Time Series Satellite Data as Ecosystem Condition Indicators for Analysis in the Northwestern Highlands of Ethiopia

Vegetation is an essential component of the terrestrial ecosystem and has changed significantly over the last two decades in the Northwestern Highlands of Ethiopia. However, previous studies have focused on the detection of bitemporal change and lacked the incorporation of entire vegetation time series changes, which are considered significant indicators of ecosystem conditions. The Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) time series dataset from the Moderate-Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) is an efficient method for analyzing the dynamics of vegetation change over a lengthy period using remote sensing techniques. This study aimed to utilize time series satellite data to detect vegetation changes from 2000 to 2020 and investigate their links with ecosystem conditions. The time-series satellite processing package (TIMESAT) was used to estimate the seasonal parameter values of NDVI and their correlation across the seasons during the study period. Break Detection for Additive Season and Trend (BFAST) was applied to identify the year of breakpoints, the direction of magnitude, and the number of breakpoints. The results were reported, analyzed, and linked to ecosystem conditions. The overall trend in the study area increased from 0.58 (2000–2004) to 0.65 (2015–2020). As a result, ecosystem condition indicators such as peak value (PV), base value (BV), amplitude (Amp), and large integral (LI) exhibited significant positive trends, particularly for Acacia decurrens plantations, Eucalyptus plantations, and grasslands, but phenology indicator parameters such as start of season (SOS), end of season (EOS), and length of season (LOS) did not show significant trends for almost any vegetation type. The most abrupt changes were recorded in 2015 (24.7%), 2012 (18.6%), and 2014 (9.8%). Approximately 30% of the vegetation changes were positive in magnitude. The results of this study imply that there was an improvement in the ecosystem’s condition following the establishment of the Acacia decurrens plantation. The findings are considered relevant inputs for policymakers and serve as an initial stage for the assessment of the other environmental and climatic implications of Acacia decurrens plantations at the local scale.

Common patterns between dengue cases, climate, and local environmental variables in Costa Rica: A wavelet approach.

Dengue transmission poses significant challenges for public health authorities worldwide due to its susceptibility to various factors, including environmental and climate variability, affecting its incidence and geographic spread. This study focuses on Costa Rica, a country characterized by diverse microclimates nearby, where dengue has been endemic since its introduction in 1993. Using wavelet coherence and clustering analysis, we performed a time-series analysis to uncover the intricate connections between climate, local environmental factors, and dengue occurrences. The findings indicate that multiannual dengue frequency (3 yr) is correlated with the Oceanic Niño Index and the Tropical North Atlantic Index. This association is particularly prominent in cantons located along the North and South Pacific Coast, as well as in the Central cantons of the country. Furthermore, the time series of these climate indices exhibit a leading phase of approximately nine months ahead of dengue cases. Additionally, the clustering analysis uncovers non-contiguous groups of cantons that exhibit similar correlation patterns, irrespective of their proximity or adjacency. This highlights the significance of climate factors in influencing dengue dynamics across diverse regions, regardless of spatial closeness or distance between them. On the other hand, the annual dengue frequency was correlated with local environmental indices. A persistent correlation between dengue cases and local environmental variables is observed over time in the North Pacific and the Central Region of the country's Northwest, with environmental factors leading by less than three months. These findings contribute to understanding dengue transmission's spatial and temporal dynamics in Costa Rica, highlighting the importance of climate and local environmental factors in dengue surveillance and control efforts.

Above-treeline ecosystems facing drought: lessons from the 2022 European summer heat wave

Abstract. In 2022, a large part of Europe experienced an extremely dry and hot summer. In the Alps, this episode occurred after an unusually low-snowfall winter, which aggravated the dryness of soils. This study examines the impact of this particular year on the canopy greenness of above-treeline ecosystems by comparison with previous heat waves that hit the Alps during the last 2 decades. Normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) time series derived from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) satellite were processed to extract the temporal variability in yearly maximum NDVI (NDVImax). The responsiveness of NDVImax to snow cover duration and growing-season weather conditions was evaluated in contrasting hydroclimate regions of the Alps using linear mixed-effect models. The year 2022 was unique in that the summer heat wave led to a widespread negative anomaly of NDVImax. The magnitude of this anomaly was unprecedented in the southwestern, driest part of the Alps, where vegetation activity was found to be particularly responsive to snow cover duration and early summer precipitation. In the colder and wetter regions, all warm to very warm summers before 2022 had led to increased canopy greenness, but the combination of a reduced snow cover and low early summer precipitation counteracted this expected beneficial effect in 2022. This study provides evidence that the control of canopy greenness by temperature and water balance differs markedly across regions of the Alps and that the year 2022 bears witness to a shift toward an increasing importance of moisture availability for regulating plant growth at high elevation. This is viewed as a warning sign of what could become the new norm in the years ahead in the context of increasing frequency and intensity of extreme droughts throughout temperate mountain ecosystems.

Remote Sensing Classification of Temperate Grassland in Eurasia Based on Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) Time-Series Data

The Eurasian temperate grassland is the largest temperate grassland ecosystem and vegetation transition zone globally. The spatiotemporal distribution and changes of grassland types are vital for grassland monitoring and management. However, there is currently a lack of a unified classification method and standard distribution map of Eurasian temperate grassland types. The Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) from remote sensing data is commonly used in grassland monitoring. In this paper, the Accumulated Rate of NDVI Change Index (ARNCI) was proposed to characterize the annual NDVI trend of different temperate grassland types, and four transitional categories were introduced to account for the overlap between them. Based on survey data on the distribution of Eurasian temperate grassland types in the 1980s, the study area was divided into three sub-regions: Northern China, Central Asia, and Mongolia. Regionally, pixel-based ARNCI maps in the 1980s and 1990s were successfully calculated from using NOAA’s AVHRR NDVI time-series products. The ARNCI classification thresholds for different sub-regions were determined, and classification experiments and validation were conducted for each sub-region. The overall accuracies of grasslands types classification for Northern China, Central Asia, and Mongolia in the 1980s were 75.3%, 64.2%, and 84.6%, respectively, which demonstrated that there were variations in classification accuracy in the three sub-regions, and the overall performance was favorable. Finally, distribution maps of Eurasian temperate grassland types in the 1980s and 1990s were obtained, and the spatiotemporal changes of grassland types were analyzed and discussed. The ARNCI method is simple to operate and easy to obtain data, and it can be conveniently used in grassland type classification. The maps firstly address the lack of remote sensing classification maps of Eurasian temperate grassland types, and provide a promising tool for monitoring grassland degradation, management, and utilization.

HP-LSP: A reference of land surface phenology from fused Harmonized Landsat and Sentinel-2 with PhenoCam data

Land surface phenology (LSP) products are currently of large uncertainties due to cloud contaminations and other impacts in temporal satellite observations and they have been poorly validated because of the lack of spatially comparable ground measurements. This study provided a reference dataset of gap-free time series and phenological dates by fusing the Harmonized Landsat 8 and Sentinel-2 (HLS) observations with near-surface PhenoCam time series for 78 regions of 10 × 10 km2 across ecosystems in North America during 2019 and 2020. The HLS-PhenoCam LSP (HP-LSP) reference dataset at 30 m pixels is composed of: (1) 3-day synthetic gap-free EVI2 (two-band Enhanced Vegetation Index) time series that are physically meaningful to monitor the vegetation development across heterogeneous levels, train models (e.g., machine learning) for land surface mapping, and extract phenometrics from various methods; and (2) four key phenological dates (accuracy ≤5 days) that are spatially continuous and scalable, which are applicable to validate various satellite-based phenology products (e.g., global MODIS/VIIRS LSP), develop phenological models, and analyze climate impacts on terrestrial ecosystems.

Crop monitoring and biomass estimation based on downscaled remote sensing data in AquaCrop model (case study: Qazvin Plain, Iran).

Ensuring food security requires monitoring crop growth conditions prior to harvesting. This research encompass three stages: remote sensing, crop modeling, and establishing a connection between the two. Besides, Fusion satellite images have been implemented to monitor and investigate fodder corn in three study areas. In the remote sensing stage, after implementing the downscaling algorithm and producing the leaf area index (LAI) time series, the results were compared with the estimated values from Landsat 8 and MODIS images, which were associated with overestimation in all cases. Furthermore, the results exhibited statistically significance with R2 > 95% and P-value < 0.05. The AquaCrop model was first calibrated and implemented in the crop modeling section at each growth stage based on the observational data measured in each field. The accuracy of the simulated model was checked according to the results of statistical indicators with high accuracy (NRMSE = 10% and RMSE = 0.03 (Ton/ha)) at significant level (95%) and was associated with underestimation. Using the SVM decision support algorithm, the relationship between downscaled LAI and calibrated CC (crop canopy) was estimated. This relationship was generated with 70% of the data and subsequently validated using the remaining 30% (R2 = 0.99, NRMSE = 0.01). On this basis, CC values were predicted. Finally, biomass values were compared with observed biomass values. According to the results of statistical indicators (RMSE = 0.19 (Ton/ha), NRMSE = 0.01, R2 = 0.96, P-value < 0.05), biomass estimation was highly accurate. These results demonstrate the reliability and accuracy of the model and the proposed method for simulating and estimating biomass before harvesting.

A global streamflow indices time series dataset for large-sample hydrological analyses on streamflow regime (until 2022)

Abstract. With the booming big data techniques, large-sample hydrological analysis on streamflow regime is becoming feasible, which could derive robust conclusions on hydrological processes from a big-picture perspective. However, there is a lack of a comprehensive global large-sample dataset for components of the streamflow regime yet. This paper presents a new time series dataset on global streamflow indices calculated from daily streamflow records after data quality control. The dataset contains 79 indices over seven major components of streamflow regime (i.e., magnitude, frequency, duration, changing rate, timing, variability, and recession) of 41 263 river reaches globally on yearly and multiyear scales. Streamflow indices values until 2022 are covered in the dataset. Time span of the time series dataset is from 1806 to 2022 with an average length of 36 years. Compared to existing global datasets, this global dataset covers more stations and more indices, especially those characterizing the frequency, duration, changing rate, and recession of streamflow regime. With the dataset, research on streamflow regime will become easier without spending time handling raw streamflow records. This comprehensive dataset will be a valuable resource to the hydrology community to facilitate a wide range of studies, such as studies of hydrological behaviour of a catchment, streamflow regime prediction in data-scarce regions, as well as variations in streamflow regime from a global perspective. The dataset can be accessed at https://doi.org/10.57760/sciencedb.07227 (Chen et al., 2023a).

A multitemporal index for the automatic identification of winter wheat based on Sentinel-2 imagery time series

ABSTRACT Timely and accurate monitoring of the spatial distribution of wheat is crucial for wheat field management, growth monitoring, yield estimation and prediction. In this study, a multitemporal index, termed the winter wheat mapping index (WWMI), was constructed for automatic winter wheat mapping on the basis of Sentinel-2 enhanced vegetation index (EVI) time series and wheat phenological features. Henan, an important winter wheat production province in China, was selected as the study area. Zhumadian, the primary wheat-growing city in Henan, was the test area. Both empirical and automatic threshold (Otsu) methods were adopted to calculate the optimal threshold of the WWMI. The performance of WWMI in winter wheat mapping was compared at object-oriented and pixel-based levels. The proposed WWMI separated winter wheat and nonwinter wheat areas well, thus achieving highly accurate winter wheat mapping. In Zhumadian, the empirical threshold method performed better than the Otsu method, but the former relied on official statistics to iteratively adjust the WWMI threshold. In Henan, the mapping accuracy achieved by the Otsu method was higher than that achieved by the empirical threshold method, with mean relative errors (MREs) of 6.78% and 19.87% at the municipal and county levels, respectively. This was because, compared with the empirical threshold method, the Otsu method did not rely on official statistics and adaptively determined the optimal threshold of the WWMI for each city in Henan, thus fully considering wheat growth state differences in different cities. In addition, the object-oriented WWMI performed better than the pixel-based WWMI in wheat mapping. The results further demonstrated the feasibility of combining the WWMI with the Otsu method for automatic winter wheat mapping at large extents, which will provide a theoretical basis for identifying other food crops.

Experience influences kinematic motor synergies: an Uncontrolled manifold approach to simulated Nordic skiing

ABSTRACT Motor synergies are defined as central nervous system mechanisms which adjust participating degrees of freedom to ensure dynamic stability (control) of certain performance variables and have been identified during many motor tasks. The potential for synergistic control of individual segments during full-body tasks is often overlooked. Thus, this study compared individual differences in the potential stabilization of multiple performance variables on the basis of experience during a full-body sport activity. Normalized time series of synergy indices from Uncontrolled Manifold analyses on experienced (n = 9) and inexperienced (n = 19) participants were analysed using statistical parametric mapping during simulated Nordic skiing. Regardless of experience, hand, upper arm, and whole-body centre of mass (COM) kinematics were found to be stabilized by kinematic motor synergies. Only experienced Nordic skiers stabilized trunk COM position at all, while trunk COM velocity was stabilized for a longer duration than inexperienced participants. However, inexperienced participants stabilized hand velocity for a greater duration overall and to a greater magnitude during early pull phase than the experienced skiers. That motor synergies for hand and trunk COM velocity differed between experience groups suggests potential utility for these performance variables as indicators of motor skill development for full-body tasks such as Nordic skiing.

A Simulation Optimization Approach for Wetland Conservation and Management in an Agricultural Basin

Decreasing water quantity and growth in water demand have increased the competition between satisfying societal water needs and protecting ecosystem requirements. Wetlands are some of the most productive ecosystems on Earth. They provide various services to people’s livelihoods, in addition to being suitable habitats for many plant and wildlife species. However, wetlands are under threat of loss and degradation due to anthropogenic activities, particularly the diversion of water for irrigation. The flow regime is usually considered the most crucial ecological factor and a key component of wetland management. So, determining the allocation of environmental requirements is a main factor for managing, restoring, and protecting wetlands, and it is crucial to reach a compromise for optimal water allocation between different sectors. For this purpose, in this research, a new approach is developed to achieve the optimal environmental flow of the wetland in an agricultural-dominated basin using a combination of remote sensing and the simulation optimization method. Waterbirds and vegetation are used as bioindicators of wetland ecosystems. First, using remote sensing data and analyses, we obtained the interrelation between the wetland water regime, vegetation, and waterbird characteristics using different time series of Landsat spectral indices. Then, by employing the long-term simulation optimization (WEAP-MOPSO) model, the optimal e-flow of the wetland is evaluated in such a way that the suitable ecological condition of the wetland is achieved and the wetland is able to provide its functions and services.

Paddy Rice mapping in fragmented lands by improved phenology curve and correlation measurements on Sentinel-2 imagery in Google earth engine.

Accurate and timely rice crop mapping is important to address the challenges of food security, water management, disease transmission, and land use change. However, accurate rice crop mapping is difficult due to the presence of mixed pixels in small and fragmented rice fields as well as cloud cover. In this paper, a phenology-based method using Sentinel-2 time series images is presented to solve these problems. First, the improved rice phenology curve is extracted based on Normalized Difference Vegetation Index and Land Surface Water Index time series data of rice fields. Then, correlation was taken between rice phenology curve and time series data of each pixel. The correlation result of each pixel shows the similarity of its time series behavior with the proposed rice phenology curve. In the next step, the maximum correlation value and its occurrence time are used as the feature vectors of each pixel to classification. Since correlation measurement provides data with better separability than its input data, training the classifier can be done with fewer samples and the classification is more accurate. The implementation of the proposed correlation-based algorithm can be done in a parallel computing. All the processes were performed on the Google Earth Engine cloud platform on the time series images of the Sentinel 2. The implementations show the high accuracy of this method.

Using Time Series Sentinel Images for Object-Oriented Crop Extraction of Planting Structure in the Google Earth Engine

Timely and accurate extraction of crop planting structure information is of great importance for food security and sustainable agricultural development. However, long time series data with high spatial resolution have a much larger data volume, which seriously limits the quality and efficiency of the application of remote sensing to agriculture in complex crop rotation areas. To address this problem, this paper takes Lujiang County, a typical complex crop rotation region in the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River in China as an example, and proposes utilizing the Google Earth Engine (GEE) platform to extract the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI), Normalized Difference Yellowness Index (NDYI) and Vertical-Horizontal Polarization (VH) time series sets of the whole planting year, and combining the Simple Non-Iterative Clustering (SNIC) multi-scale segmentation with the Support Vector Machine (SVM) and Random Forest (RF) algorithms to realize the fast and high-quality planting information of the main crop rotation patterns in the complex rotation region. The results show that by combining time series and object-oriented methods, SVM leads to better improvement than RF, with its overall accuracy and Kappa coefficient increasing by 4.44% and 0.0612, respectively, but RF is more suitable for extracting the planting structure in complex crop rotation areas. The RF algorithm combined with time series object-oriented extraction (OB + T + RF) achieved the highest accuracy, with an overall accuracy and Kappa coefficient of 98.93% and 0.9854, respectively. When compared to the pixel-oriented approach combined with the Support Vector Machine algorithm based on multi-temporal data (PB + M + SVM), the proposed method effectively reduces the presence of salt-and-pepper noise in the results, resulting in an improvement of 6.14% in overall accuracy and 0.0846 in Kappa coefficient. The research results can provide a new idea and a reliable reference method for obtaining crop planting structure information efficiently and accurately in complex crop rotation areas.

Characterizing the Variability of a Physical Driver of North Atlantic Right Whale Foraging Habitat Using Altimetric Indices

Physical ocean circulation features, especially the Gaspé Current (GC) intrusion, influence the transport and aggregation of whale prey, thereby influencing the whale foraging habitat in the Gulf of St. Lawrence (GSL), Canada. We employ satellite altimetry-derived sea level anomaly (SLA) indices to monitor interannual variations in the intensity of the GC in the North Atlantic Right Whale (Eubalaena glacialis; NARW) habitat in the GSL. Measurements of surface slope and volume transport are taken from the SLA profiles along a repeating ground track of the Jason-2/3 satellites. These are employed as complementary proxies in characterizations of physical processes in the GSL. The relationship between altimetric indices and indices of zooplankton abundance are explored in the southern GSL. Results demonstrate that an altimetric index estimated from surface slope (Indexslope−half) is correlated with river discharge of the St. Lawrence River and can be utilized to infer variations in GC intensities. Time series of the altimetric indices during 2009–2021 are found to exhibit interannual and seasonal environmental variability, which influence transport into the southern GSL. As captured by the altimetric indices, these features of the surface ocean circulation can be linked to zooplankton variations in the Shediac Valley, where NARWs are frequently observed. Therefore, in linking physical drivers of ocean dynamics to the NARW foraging habitat, variations in these indices can also potentially help describe some features of the distribution patterns of NARW sightings in this area.

Wheat Yield Estimation at High Spatial Resolution through the Assimilation of Sentinel-2 Data into a Crop Growth Model

Monitoring crop growth and estimating crop yield are essential for managing agricultural production, ensuring food security, and maintaining sustainable agricultural development. Combining the mechanistic framework of a crop growth model with remote sensing observations can provide a means of generating realistic and spatially detailed crop growth information that can facilitate accurate crop yield estimates at different scales. The main objective of this study was to develop a robust estimation methodology of within-field winter wheat yield at a high spatial resolution (20 m × 20 m) by combining a light use efficiency-based model and Sentinel-2 data. For this purpose, Sentinel-2 derived leaf area index (LAI) time series were assimilated into the Simple Algorithm for Yield Estimation (SAFY) model using an ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF). The study was conducted on rainfed winter wheat fields in southern Sweden. LAI was estimated using vegetation indices (VIs) derived from Sentinel-2 data with semi-empirical models. The enhanced two-band vegetation index (EVI2) was found to be a useful VI for LAI estimation, with a coefficient of determination (R2) and a root mean square error (RMSE) of 0.80 and 0.65 m2/m2, respectively. Our findings demonstrate that the assimilation of LAI derived from Sentinel-2 into the SAFY model using EnKF enhances the estimation of within-field spatial variability of winter wheat yield by 70% compared to the baseline simulation without the assimilation of remotely sensed data. Additionally, the assimilation of LAI improves the accuracy of winter wheat yield estimation by decreasing the RMSE by 53%. This study demonstrates an approach towards practical applications of freely accessible Sentinel-2 data and a crop growth model through data assimilation for fine-scale mapping of crop yield. Such information is critical for quantifying the yield gap at the field scale, and to aid the optimization of management practices to increase crop production.

SatVITS‐Flood: Satellite Vegetation Index Time Series Flood Detection Model for Hyperarid Regions

AbstractWe present the satellite vegetation index time series model for detecting historical floods in ungauged hyperarid regions (SatVITS‐Flood). SatVITS‐Flood is based on observations that floods are the primary cause of local vegetation expansion in hyperarid regions. To detect such expansion, we used two time‐series metrics: (a) trend change detection from the Breaks For Additive Season and Trend and (b) a newly developed seasonal change metric based on Temporal Fourier Analysis (TFA) and the growing‐season integral anomaly (TFA‐GSIanom). The two metrics complement each other by capturing changes in perennial plant species following extreme, rare floods and ephemeral vegetation changes following more frequent floods. Metrics were derived from the time series of the normalized difference vegetation index, the modified soil‐adjusted vegetation index, and the normalized difference water index, acquired from MODIS, Landsat, and Advanced Very High‐Resolution Radiometer. The timing of the change was compared with the date of the flood and the magnitude of change with its volume and duration. We tested SatVITS‐Flood in three regions on different continents with 40‐year‐long, systematic, reliable gauge data. Our results indicate that SatVITS‐Flood can predict flood occurrence with an accuracy of 78% and precision of 67% (Recall = 0.69 and F1 = 0.68; p &lt; 0.01), and the flood volume and duration with NSE of 0.79 (RMSE = 15.4 × 106 m3 event−1), and R2 of 0.69 (RMSE = 5.7 days), respectively. SatVITS‐Flood proved useful for detecting historical floods and may provide valuable long‐term hydrological information in poorly documented areas, which can help understand the impacts of climate change on the hydrology of hyperarid regions.

Dynamical Complexity Transitions During High‐Intensity Long Duration Continuous Auroral Activities (HILDCAA) Events: Feature Analysis Based on Neural Network Entropy

AbstractIn this study, we examine the dynamical complexity transitions during HILDCAA events. HILDCAA preceded by an Interplanetary Coronal Mass Ejection (ICME) storm recovery phase, HILDCAA preceded by a Corotating Interaction Region (CIR) storm recovery phase, and non‐storm driven HILDCAA and geomagnetically quiet periods were investigated using the Auroral Electrojet index time series. Neural Network Entropy (NNetEn) was used to capture the dynamical complexity transitions during these sporadic events. The NNetEn was able to decipher the distinct dynamical features associated with the emergence of HILDCAA and the geomagnetically quiet periods. Our analysis revealed a high value of NNetEn during HILDCAA signifying that the complexity levels of the coupled solar wind‐magnetosphere‐ionosphere system for HILDCAA, driven by different interplanetary structures were high with no significance difference. Thus, indicating that during HILDCAA, the dynamical behavior of the underlying physical processes due to the energy deposition driven either by ICME, CIR or non‐storm HILDCAA remain the same. However, a deciphering feature of dynamical complexity between the geomagnetically quiet period and HILDCAA events was evident. It was noticed that as the HILDCAA emerges, the NNetEn depicts an increment in entropy value signifying that the complexity levels of the coupled solar wind‐magnetosphere‐ionosphere system increases, and as the dynamics transcend to its recovery state, a reduction in entropy was observed implying a decline in complexity levels. Low values of NNetEn revealing lower complexity levels are found to be associated with geomagnetically quiet periods.

Spatiotemporal Evaluation of the Flood Potential Index and Its Driving Factors across the Volga River Basin Based on Combined Satellite Gravity Observations

Floods have always threatened the survival and development of human beings. To reduce the adverse effects of floods, it is very important to understand the influencing factors of floods and their formation mechanisms. In our study, we integrated the Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment and its Follow-On and Swarm solutions to estimate an uninterrupted 19-year flood potential index (FPI) time series, discussed the spatiotemporal distribution characteristics of the FPI and monitored major floods in the Volga River basin (VRB) from 2003 to 2021. Finally, we analyzed the relationship between the FPI and hydrometeorological factors to comprehend the flood formation mechanism. The results show that data fusion has reduced the uncertainty of terrestrial water storage change (TWSC), and the TWSC from the combined satellite gravity observations has a good consistency with that from the Global Land Data Assimilation System model (correlation coefficient = 0.92). During the study period, two major floods (June 2005 and May 2018) occurred in the VRB. The FPI has a significant seasonal change characteristic, and shows a high flood risk in spring and a low one in autumn. With regards to spatial distribution, the flood risk is increasing in the north (increasing rate = 0.1) and decreasing in the south (decreasing rate = 0.39). Snow water equivalent (SWE, correlation coefficient = 0.75) has a stronger correlation with the FPI than precipitation (PPT, correlation coefficient = 0.46), which is attributed to the recharge of SWE on water resources greater than that of PPT. The rising surface temperature (ST) speeds up snow melt, resulting in excessive groundwater and soil moisture, and the flood risk greatly increases at this time. The process lasts about three months. Therefore, except for PPT, ST is also a climatic factor leading to the floods in the VRB. Our study provides a reference for flood research in high-latitude regions.