Risk Assessment Index System Research Articles

Security and Privacy Risk Assessment of Energy Big Data in Cloud Environment.

Considering the importance of energy in our lives and its impact on other critical infrastructures, this paper starts from the whole life cycle of big data and divides the security and privacy risk factors of energy big data into five stages: data collection, data transmission, data storage, data use, and data destruction. Integrating into the consideration of cloud environment, this paper fully analyzes the risk factors of each stage and establishes a risk assessment index system for the security and privacy of energy big data. According to the different degrees of risk impact, AHP method is used to give indexes weights, genetic algorithm is used to optimize the initial weights and thresholds of BP neural network, and then the optimized weights and thresholds are given to BP neural network, and the evaluation samples in the database are used to train it. Then, the trained model is used to evaluate a case to verify the applicability of the model.

Credit decision based on Credit risk assessment index system

The loan fund allocation of banks to small and medium-sized enterprises should not only maximize the interests of banks, but also ensure that enterprises are allocated an appropriate amount of loans. First of all, carry on the data preprocessing, because the credit rating of the enterprise directly determines whether the bank lends to it or not, so as to eliminate the data of the enterprises that do not lend. Secondly, five quantitative analysis indexes, namely, total output tax, total input tax, profit, credit rating and default or not, are selected to quantitatively analyze the risk of each enterprise by establishing a fuzzy comprehensive evaluation model. In order to avoid subjectivity, the coefficient of variation method is used to calculate the index weight of each index of the fuzzy comprehensive evaluation model, and the weighted average method is used to determine the fuzzy comprehensive evaluation result. Establishment of credit risk assessment index system. Then, from the point of view of maximizing bank profits, the bank-to-enterprise credit strategy is formulated according to credit risk and credit policy, which is reflected by lending, loan line, interest rate and term. Because the exact value of the total credit of the bank is not given, when formulating the credit strategy, the credit line of each enterprise is reflected by the proportion of the enterprise credit line to the total credit line. In order to maximize bank profit, a linear optimization model of interest rate and customer turnover rate is established to fix customer loss and maximize bank interest rate.

Research on Risk Assessment and Control for Urban Rainwater Resources Utilization

Strengthening risk management and control of urban rainwater resources utilization is the key to ensuring the sustainable and efficient use of urban rainwater resources. On the basis of comprehensive research on urban rainwater utilization, the definition and connotation of urban rainwater utilization emphasizing the attributes of resource utilization are proposed, and the definition and function model of urban rainwater utilization risk are established. Based on the whole process of the development and utilization of urban rainwater resources including external environment, urban natural and social characteristics, rainwater utilization engineering systems, and project operation management, the risk assessment index system for urban rainwater utilization and risk evaluation model by using Analytic Hierarchy Process are established, and a comprehensive risk assessment standard based on risk value and risk tolerance, as well as residual risk management and control theory and risk management methods are put forward. The results of research on risk assessment and control of rainwater resources utilization in Xifeng District of Qingyang City shows that the main risks of rainwater utilization in this district are as follows in order of severity: policies and regulations, economy developing level, maintenance costs, precipitation and natural eutrophication. Risk assessment shows that the risks are low and acceptable and thus can be reduced by strengthening daily monitoring and control.

Multi-dimensional risk assessment of electricity market based on cloud model

Aiming at various potential risks in the electricity market, this paper establishes a risk assessment index system for the electricity market from four dimensions of structural risk, operation risk, fairness risk, and behavioral risk. The analytic hierarchy process is used to determine the subjective weight of risk evaluation indicators, and the entropy method is used to determine the objective Weight, according to the least squares optimization idea to get the comprehensive weight. Then, the basic theory and calculation method of cloud model are introduced, and the standard cloud of risk level evaluation is constructed. Finally, the analysis of a calculation example shows that the risk evaluation level of the selected regional electricity market is moderate, which verifies the validity and feasibility of the model proposed.

Research on the risk assessment of Internet finance loans for small and microenterprises based on the logistic-BP combined model: empirical data from China

Small and microenterprises are an important part of the national economy. Because of their small disposable assets, low degree of regularization, incomplete and discontinuous information management and financial information, low stability of production, and lack of mortgage assets that banks are willing to accept, these enterprises represent a high-risk part of the financial service system. Therefore, the risk assessment of Internet financial loans for small and microenterprises has become an important issue and requires serious study. This paper constructs an index system for the risk assessment of Internet financial loans for small and microenterprises and proposes a logistic-BP combined model, which is applied to 1389 sample Internet financial loans of small and microenterprises. After deleting data observations with default values, the remaining 1326 sets of sample data include 1248 low-risk samples and 78 high-risk samples. The risk assessment and testing are carried out for enterprises in three stages: germination stage, growth stage and mature stage. Comparison of the results of the logistic-BP combined model and single BP neural network model shows that the combined model has high accuracy and provides a reference for the risk assessment of Internet financial loans for small and microenterprises.

Fire risk assessment of high-rise buildings under construction based on unascertained measure theory.

To prevent fire accidents in high-rise buildings under construction, in this paper, the fire risk assessment of such buildings is studied. First, based on project investigation and a literature review, a fire risk assessment index system suitable for high-rise buildings under construction was established. Second, the unascertained measure theory was applied to establish a fire risk assessment model for high-rise buildings under construction. The index weight was determined by the entropy weight method. Finally, taking a high-rise building project in Xi’an, China, as an example, the feasibility and rationality of the fire risk assessment index system and assessment model were verified. This research provides a new method for objectively assessing the fire risk of high-rise buildings under construction and provides a certain reference for controlling the fire risk of high-rise buildings under construction.

Research on comprehensive evaluation system of occupational stress for air traffic controllers

Objective: To explore the index system and weight of occupational stress risk assessment for civil aviation air traffic controllers (ATC) . Methods: In October 2018, a total of 489 ATC staff from an air traffic administration bureau were selected by cluster sampling. Through ATC questionnaire survey, the basic information, the influencing factors of occupational stress and the degree of occupational stress were understood. Based on the order relation analysis method (GL method) , the influencing factors of ATC occupational stress in civil aviation are evaluated. The fuzzy relation synthesis principle is applied to carry out multi-level fuzzy evaluation on the subordinate degree of occupational stress risk, and the ATC occupational stress risk evaluation system model is established. The weight of each index in the index system is determined, Establish a three-level comprehensive evaluation index system for ATC occupational stress risk, and quantify the occupational stress risk, Each Civil Aviation ATC occupational stress index corresponds to different degree of stress. Results: The influence degree of ATC occupational stress from heavy to light is: work factor, psychological factor, event factor, management factor, physiological factor, equipment factor and environmental factor (weight value is 0.2652, 0.2265, 0.1832, 0.1253, 0.1154, 0.045 5, 0.038 9 respectively) . Conclusion: GL method can be used to comprehensively and quantitatively evaluate the occupational stress risk of Civil Aviation ATC, which may be a feasible way to evaluate the occupational stress risk of Civil Aviation ATC.

Quantitative Risk Assessment and Evolution Trajectory of China’s Iron Ore Resource

The resource security system is a complex system. Strategic mineral resource is of great importance to national security and economic development. Iron ore is one of the 24 strategic mineral resource determined by the Chinese government. Based on the broad connotation of resource security, we put forward the risk assessment model of resource security named 3E (Enduring, Economic, Environmental) model and establish a complete risk assessment index system for iron ore. In this paper, the entropy method is used to determine the weight of each index, we evaluate the comprehensive risk of iron ore from 2000 to 2016, and analyse the results of risk assessment in detail. The results show that the supply risk is on the rise, which has the greatest impact on the comprehensive risk. Moreover, the fluctuation of economic risk is more stable, and the environmental risk is decreasing. The comprehensive risk index of China’s iron ore increased firstly and then declined. From 2000 to 2007, it was a relatively low-risk period; from 2008 to 2010, the risk was increased; 2011-2013 was a high-risk period; and 2014 to 2016, there was a reduction in risk. In order to effectively control the risk of iron ore, this paper puts forward some suggestions from several aspects.

Regional risk assessment methods in relation to urban public safety

With the development of urbanization in China, the problem of urban public safety is becoming increasingly prominent. A scientific regional risk assessment of urban public safety can provide important support for risk warning and management systems. This study aims to introduce a comprehensive method to assess and manage regional risk factors of urban public safety. Taking regional risk assessment of urban public safety as the research object, and focusing on multiple sources of risk such as industry, infrastructure, traffic, and public places, this study provides a comprehensive and systematic classification of risks and identifies the characteristics of the various risk agents. The urban region is divided into three units: an industrial risk unit, an urban population-intensive unit, and an urban communal facilities unit. Then, a multi-agent index system for regional risk assessment in relation to urban public safety is established. Using the analytic hierarchy process, the entropy weight method, and multiple connection numbers, both static and dynamic analyses of regional risks in relation to urban public safety are undertaken and the regional risks in relation to urban public safety are predicted.

Design and Implementation of BIM-based Fire Risk Assessment System

Integrating BIM with fire risk assessment, this thesis adopts the fire risk index method and analytic hierarchy process to assess the risk of buildings and establish fire risk assessment index system. With Microsoft Visual Studio 2015 as the development platform and C # as the development language, the secondary development was carried out based on BIM technology, which is characterized by efficiency, reliability and scientificity, and a fire risk assessment system based on BIM was successfully designed, which can realize the fire risk assessment of four types of buildings: residential building, public buildings, factory building and warehouses. The system can directly import the fire protection data of buildings needed by fire risk assessment from BIM to complete the building fire risk assessment, which not only can make fire risk assessment process simplified with less costs, but also can enable the fire risk assessment to be widely used in all kinds of buildings, thereby further promoting the fire safety level of buildings.

Fuzzy Comprehensive Evaluation of Subway Shield Construction Risk Based on WSR and Combined Weighting

Aiming at the problem of risk evaluation of subway shield construction, a fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method based on WSR and combined weighting is proposed. Firstly, using the WSR methodology to analyze and select the risk indicators of the subway shield system from the three dimensions of “Wuli - Shili - Renli”, a risk assessment index system for subway shield construction was constructed. Then, fuzzy theory is introduced to establish a comprehensive evaluation model of subway shield construction based on combined weighting. Through the multiplication synthesis method, the weight values of the analytic hierarchy process and the entropy weight method are combined, and the principle of fuzzy relation synthesis is used to comprehensively evaluate the membership level. In the end, the shield tunnel in Qingdao Metro Line X is used as an example to calculate and demonstrate. The results show that the risk is at the “general” level, which is basically consistent with the actual situation. It shows the feasibility and applicability of the established evaluation method, which has guiding significance for reducing the risk of subway shield construction.

Study on Sustainable Development of the Transnational Power Grid Interconnection Projects under Diversified Risks Based on Variable Weight Theory and Bayesian Network

Transnational power grid interconnection is an important measure to promote the construction of energy Internet. It can meet the global power demand in a clean and green way, promote the UN’s concept of “sustainable energy,” and tackle climate changes. But, transnational power grid projects face many complex and variable risks due to their complex background and lacking experience. According to the characteristics of transnational power grid interconnection projects, a risk assessment index system including 10 indexes such as national relation, public participation, and available transmission capacity is constructed. Then, in order to overcome the shortcomings of traditional risk assessment methods, this paper proposes a risk assessment method combined with risk theory and probabilistic model, which can not only consider the uncertainties but also integrate the probability of accidents with consequences. Therefore, it can effectively assess the transnational power grid interconnection projects under diversified risks. In addition, in order to further magnify the impact of higher risks on such projects, a method combining traditional weighting method with the variable weight theory is proposed. The study in this paper provides certain guidance and decision-making support for different participants such as the government power sector, construction enterprises, and investment enterprises when they launch on sustainable development of the transnational project business, which have obvious practical significance.

A novel approach for occupational health and safety and environment risk assessment for nuclear power plant construction project

Nuclear Power Plant (NPP) construction project is a mega one with high level of occupational health and safety and environment (OHSE) risks, and it is necessary to propose an approach for the OHSE risk assessment so as to prevent the OHSE accidents or reduce their outcomes. However, there has not been such an approach due to the high uncertainty and complexity of NPP construction project. Therefore, this paper proposed a novel approach for the OHSE risk assessment which includes systematically identifying the OHSE risks by using brainstorming method, establishing an OHSE risk assessment index system by using Delphi method, and formulating a mathematical model by combining set pair analysis (SPA), trapezoidal fuzzy number (TPFN), and set-valued statistics (SVS) methods for determining the overall OHSE risk level for NPP construction project. The approach was used to assess the OHSE risks for the NPP construction project in East China, and its overall OHSE risk level was assessed at level 2 (low OHSE risk level). In addition, the problems in the OHSE risk management were found, and the corresponding OHSE risk treatments for these problems were implemented. The results showed that the approach helped reduce the OHSE risk level and protect the workers' occupational health and safety and the environment while the NPP construction project was under construction.

Comprehensive Risk Assessment Method of Power Grid Based on Grey Relational Weight Game Theory

Taking the risk assessment of power system which include new energy grid and AC/DC hybrid structure as the research object, the paper proposes a comprehensive risk assessment method based on game theory and grey relational projection. Firstly, by analyzing the risk factors faced by modern power grids, the risk assessment index system is reconstructed from three aspects, grid structure, operational status and energy supply. Secondly, by creating combination weighting model based on game theory, the subjective weight values and the objective weight values of indexes are integrated to eliminate the weight deviation caused by single weighting method. Thirdly, based on grey relation projection model, the projection values of risk index samples on ideal states are calculated, and the overall risk of samples is represented by its superiority to negative ideal state. The proposed method could identify operation modes with high risk for power grid, which is significant to safe and stable operation of the power grid. Finally, by case analysis, the effectiveness of the proposed method is proved.

Risk assessment of water inrush in tunnels based on attribute interval recognition theory

Water inrush is one of the most serious geological hazards in underground engineering construction. In order to effectively prevent and control the occurrence of water inrush, a new attribute interval recognition theory and method is proposed to systematically evaluate the risk of water inrush in karst tunnels. Its innovation mainly includes that the value of evaluation index is an interval rather than a certain value; the single-index attribute evaluation model is improved non-linearly based on the idea of normal distribution; the synthetic attribute interval analysis method based on improved intuitionistic fuzzy theory is proposed. The TFN-AHP method is proposed to analyze the weight of evaluation index. By analyzing geological factors and engineering factors in tunnel zone, a multi-grade hierarchical index system for tunnel water inrush risk assessment is established. The proposed method is applied to ventilation incline of Xiakou tunnel, and its rationality and practicability is verified by comparison with field situation and evaluation results of other methods. In addition, the results evaluated by this method, which considers that water inrush is a complex non-linear system and the geological conditions have spatial variability, are more accurate and reliable. And it has good applicability in solving the problem of certain and uncertain problem.

Weight Calculation Method for Consumer Goods Risk Assessment Indexes Based on Analytic Hierarchy Process

This Paper, by comprehensively analyzing the factors influencing consumer goods safety risk assessment and following the principles of completeness, maneuverability, rationality and comparability, constructs a consumer goods safety risk assessment index system covering human-product-environment, and proposes the weight calculation method for consumer goods safety risk assessment index system based on Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP), laying the foundation for the related work of consumer goods safety risk assessment.

Research on Dynamic Risk Assessment and Active Defense Strategy of Active Distribution Network under Ice Weather

With the continuous development of the active distribution network (ADN), the problem of security and stability has become increasingly prominent. From the perspective of improving the defense capability of ADN, a new a multi-angle dynamic risk assessment index system based on the comprehensive vulnerability rate model is proposed in this paper. Risk threshold is used to monitor the status of the distribution network, which determine whether ADN needs to enter the active defense period. The minimum amount of load shedding outside the fault isolation region is regarded as the objective function, considering other constraints such as limited resources, the coordinated active defense strategy (CADS) is formed in this paper. Finally, the accuracy of the comprehensive vulnerability rate and the risk assessment value are verified by example analysis, and the superiority of the CADS is verified by comparing different defense strategies.

Health Risk Assessment Indicators for the Left-Behind Elderly in Rural China: A Delphi Study.

In China, many young and middle-aged rural residents move to urban areas each year. The rural elderly are left behind. The number of the rural left-behind elderly is increasing with urbanization, but it is unclear which indicators can be used to assess their health condition. The health risk assessment index system was developed to improve the health level of the rural left-behind elderly. A two-round web-based Delphi process was used to organize the recommendations from fifteen Chinese experts in geriatrics, health management, social psychology who participated in this study. Meaningfulness, importance, modifiability, and comprehensive value of the health risk assessment indicators in the index system were evaluated. The effective recovery rates of the two-round Delphi were 86.67% and 92.31%, respectively. The judgement coefficient and the authority coefficient were 0.87 and 0.82, respectively. The expert familiarity was 0.76. Ultimately, the health risk assessment index system for the rural left-behind elderly consisted of five first-level indicators, thirteen second-level indicators, and sixty-six third-level indicators. The final indicators can be used to evaluate the health of the rural left-behind elderly and provide the basis for additional health risk interventions.

Public Safety Risk Assessment of Power Investment Project Based on Fuzzy Set and DS Evidence Theory

In recent years, the international situation has become more and more complex, and the regional conflicts have been escalating, and the risks of overseas public security have been increasing. Based on the four types of public security events, a public safety risk assessment index system of "one belt and one road" electric power investment project is established. Combining the Bayesian network model, and using fuzzy set and DS evidence theory, the public security risk level of the “Belt and Road” countries can be this method has been effectively verified and put forward countermeasures by an example.

Research on Risk Assessment of Coalbed Methane Development Project Based on SEWM-GCA

Coalbed Methane development is a complex system project with complex technology, many links and long cycle. It is highly susceptible to risks such as legal, technical and management during the development process. In order to scientifically measure the overall risk of CBM development projects, reduce resource waste and property losses caused by risk management failure. This paper constructs a risk assessment index system for CBM development projects consisting of six first-level indicators and 28 second-level indicators. The weight of each indicator is calculated by the structural entropy weight method. Secondly, based on the grey clustering analysis method, the theoretical model of risk assessment for coalbed methane development projects is established. Finally, an empirical study on a coalbed methane development project in Qinshui County, Shanxi Province was carried out using the evaluation system. After calculation, the overall risk level of the project is Grade II. The evaluation results are consistent with the actual situation of the enterprise, indicating that the established evaluation system has certain effectiveness and feasibility.