Abstract
In recent years, the international situation has become more and more complex, and the regional conflicts have been escalating, and the risks of overseas public security have been increasing. Based on the four types of public security events, a public safety risk assessment index system of "one belt and one road" electric power investment project is established. Combining the Bayesian network model, and using fuzzy set and DS evidence theory, the public security risk level of the “Belt and Road” countries can be this method has been effectively verified and put forward countermeasures by an example.
Highlights
In recent years, the tense situation in many countries and regions around the world has been escalating, and the demand of Chinese enterprises for "going global" to prevent overseas public security risks is increasing
This paper will establish a safety risk assessment index system, and use fuzzy set and DS evidence theory to combine with Bayesian network model to deduce its public security risk rating
Based on Bayesian network reasoning by the reference data, the probability P(R) of the security incident and the entire security risk are respectively at five risk levels, and use the weighted average to get the security incidents and the public security risks in the “Belt and Road” countries. It shows that the probability of ethnic and religious conflicts A and terrorist attacks C is high in the country, and the probability of ethnic-religious conflicts A is the highest; the country’s public security risk has the highest probability of having a medium R risk, the risk value is 0.5609
Summary
The tense situation in many countries and regions around the world has been escalating, and the demand of Chinese enterprises for "going global" to prevent overseas public security risks is increasing. When investing in the construction of electric power projects along the "one belt and one road", Chinese enterprises should make an advance prediction and assessment of the public security risks of the country or region, so as to forewarn and avoid risks and reduce casualties and economic losses. This paper will establish a safety risk assessment index system, and use fuzzy set and DS evidence theory to combine with Bayesian network model to deduce its public security risk rating. Take a country's power investment as an example, verify effectively this method, and put forward corresponding countermeasures
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