Independence Referendum Research Articles

Constituent power and independence movements: On the founding and foundation of political orders and the meaning of political independence

This paper links the debates on constituent power and European independence movements in order to develop a theoretically compelling and empirically grounded conception of constituent power, as well as to assess in how far constituent power contributes to the meaning of political independence. In its first part, it builds upon recent republican contributions to the debates on corporate, joint and collective agency and argues that, even on individualist grounds, constituent power can convincingly be understood as a surplus of collective agency that corporate agency cannot encompass. In the second part of the paper, these preliminary theoretical considerations are confronted with the debates about Scotland's constitutional future and the 2014 independence referendum. This examination suggests further differentiation, but also facilitates insights into the interplay of the constituent power of the people with corporate forms of agency, as well as into changes of constituent peoples. In the final part, the paper inverts the perspective of inquiry to show that, once one is conscious of the complex relation between popular sovereignty and sovereignty that conceptions of corporate and collective agency help us to grasp, constituent power also proves to be an element of a compelling political conception of political independence.

The Qualitative Election Study of Britain Party Leader Evaluations Database, 2010–2019

Abstract The authors describe the Qualitative Election Study of Britain (qesb) Party Leader Evaluation Database, a database containing 4,119 words and phrases evaluating British political party leaders. The data were collected during pre-election focus groups and interviews with participants from England, Scotland, and Wales during the General Election campaigns of 2010, 2015, 2017, and 2019. A supplementary dataset of leaders’ evaluation data from Dundee residents after the Scottish Independence Referendum in 2014 is also provided. To collect the data, participants viewed headshot pictures of major and minor party leaders (depending on where in Britain they lived) taken from party websites. Participants wrote down words or phrases they associated with each leader and coded their assessment as positive, negative, or neutral. These data are suitable for content, sentiment, and discourse analysis or analytic generalization.

Securitization of the 2017 Kurdistan independence referendum

The Kurdish right to self-determination within Iraq has consistently been framed as a security issue by successive Iraqi governments. This paper applies securitization theory to analyze the Iraqi Government’s response to the Kurdistan Region’s unilateral independence referendum held on September 25, 2017. The referendum, which resulted in a strong vote in favor of independence, was viewed as a serious threat to Iraq’s unity by Iraqi Arab political and military forces, as well as Turkmen groups. In response, the Iraqi Government chose to take military action. On October 16, 2017, the Iraqi military, along with Popular Mobilization Forces (PM), launched an attack on Kurdish Peshmerga forces in the disputed territories, taking control of them. While many studies have explored various aspects of the Kurdistan referendum, including its timing, motivations, and consequences, there has been limited focus on how the Iraqi federal government’s securitization of the referendum facilitated military interventions in the contested territories. This article explores how Iraqi leaders’ rhetoric and securitizing language framed the referendum as an existential threat.

Политический процесс и формирование государственности в Донецкой Народной Республике

The article analyzes the political process and formation of statehood in the DPR in the context of international law and historical background. It examines the issues of balancing the principle of territorial integrity and the right to self-determination, the evolution of representative bodies in the DPR, and the institutionalization process of the results of the independence referendum. Special attention is paid to historical, cultural, and political factors that have contributed to the region's desire for autonomy. The reasons for the escalation of ethno-political conflict and the role of state-building in protecting the rights of the population of Donbass are explored. The article emphasizes the complexity of assessing the legality of self-proclaimed states and the need to develop a balanced approach in international law to such situations.

Cracking a nut with a sledgehammer: the Lord Advocate’s Reference on a second Scottish independence referendum in constitutional context

Cracking a nut with a sledgehammer: the Lord Advocate’s Reference on a second Scottish independence referendum in constitutional context

Референдум о независимости Черногории 2006 года: этноязыковые аспекты

The purpose of the study is to determine the influence of the factor of ethnolanguage identification of the population of Montenegro on the results of the 2006 independence referendum. The article presents arguments pointing to a stable territorial split of Montenegro, confirmed by census materials, the results of referendums in 1992 and 2006, as well as the course of parliamentary and presidential elections. Montenegrins, Serbs and representatives of other ethnic communities have completely different assessments of the geopolitical situation of the republic and have their own vision of the further development of Montenegrin statehood. The scientific novelty of the study consists in an attempt to show a clear correlation of the voting results in each community with the ethnocultural identity of the local population, due to the historical conditions of residence of a particular region within the Montenegrin state. As a result of the study, it was determined that the Orthodox majority of the republic is in a state of deep division into two approximately equal groups – Serbs and Montenegrins. Their separation on the issue of maintaining a unified state entity with Serbia was noticeable even during the collapse of greater Yugoslavia, and finally took shape in the late 1990s and early 2000s in connection with the new course of the political leadership of Montenegro to achieve full independence from Serbia.

Political protest landscapes in Catalonia: language choice, utopian/dystopian discourse and “Catalans”-“Spaniards” identities

ABSTRACT Catalonia has become a rich site to investigate minorised-language identity, with the reemergence of a movement calling for independence. Our case study analyses how pro-/anti-secessionist protests are (counter)-fought in urban Linguistic Landscapes. We approach LLs as identity-markers and place-makers delivering messages of political subversion/dominance where majority/minorised-language choice and utopian/dystopian discourse become crucial for understanding their meanings during social upheaval, with renewed nationalist protests linked to an independence Referendum. We employed a content analysis based on a semiotic/semantic interpretation and thematic categorisation of the data. We show that two antithetical “Catalans”/“Spaniards” identities reemerge which mobilise either utopian projects written in Catalan or dystopian visions in Spanish, through intertextuality. The former, categorised as pro-independence “political resistance LLs,” project a hopeful impossible to extend a liberating possible. The latter, pro-unionist “threats to Catalan protesters LLs,” reinstate order, enforcing the suppression of dissent. This reveals that ethnolinguistic identities are newly reconfigured/resignified, unpacking how a social-semiotics focus on language choice and utopia/dystopia can prefigure social conflict development.

The Case for a Scottish Clarity Act

AbstractThe recent political difficulties faced by the Scottish National Party have made the prospect of a future Scottish independence referendum less salient in both Westminster and Holyrood. However, whilst the short‐term prospects for the independence movement look challenging, the long‐term question of Scotland's future within the UK remains an important area of analysis for constitutional policy makers and scholars alike. This article seeks to add to the debate on the future of the UK's territorial constitution by arguing for the passage of a ‘Scottish Clarity Act’ by the UK government, which would outline the rules about when and how a future Scottish independence referendum should be conducted. Using the Canadian Clarity Act 2000 as an international example of the constitutionalising of secession, it argues that there are numerous benefits associated with providing greater clarity on Scotland's constitutional future, including the dampening of polarisation, the mitigation of constitutional crisis, the improvement of governance and the bolstering of democracy in the UK.

Self-determination vs. state sovereignty. What are the determinants of agreed-upon independence referendums in liberal democracies?

ABSTRACT Secession referendums can help to resolve the tension between self-determination and state sovereignty. Nevertheless, not all state governments accept holding such consultations in collaboration with secessionist movements. This article tackles this issue by focusing on the determinants of agreed and non-agreed upon independence referendums. Through a statistical analysis based on a dataset of independence referendums held in liberal democracies from 1945 to 2022 (N = 70), we demonstrate that the decision of the parent state’s government to agree to an independence referendum depends on two factors. The first is the perception of competition and/or electoral proximity to the referendum demand. The second depends on the expectation of the low cost of an eventual secession – at least in terms of population, area and natural resources. Accordingly, we propose a general model designed to predict the disposition of a liberal democracy to agree to an independence referendum.

Business as usual like never before! Continuity, rupture and anxiety management in the 2014 Scottish independence referendum campaign

Ontological security-seeking has traditionally been considered to rest upon the stability and continuity of core auto-biographical narratives and everyday routines. ‘Critical situations’ which fundamentally destabilise these foundations of ontological security have thus hitherto carried a negative valence. Constitutional referenda proposing a radical re-organisation of collective political identities and daily life, therefore, are intriguing. A source of severe consternation for some, for others, potential change is positive, even thrilling. This article investigates this puzzling contrast, drawing on Ontological Security Studies’ (OSS) recent recentring of Existentialist thought and debates exploring the heterogenous potential of anxiety, and utilising the 2014 referendum on Scottish independence and the strategies for anxiety management embedded in the pro-independence ‘Yes’ campaign. Through analysis of dominant discourses grounding the argument for independence, findings demonstrate the simultaneous deployment of contradictory anxiety management strategies: independence was framed as a pathway to escape the instability and uncertainty of the status quo; as a pathway to continuity; and as a chance to embrace anxiety, to relish the opportunity and excitement of change. This article thus contributes to the prevailing critique of OSS’ over-privileging of stability and continuity in ontological security-seeking, yet problematises ‘either/or’ approaches to understanding anxiety management in critical situations and beyond.

Scotland in the multi-national UK state: interpreting legislatures, decentred state, territorial governance

ABSTRACT The article offers a critique of the ‘decentred state’ and the working of the devolved Scottish Parliament in its legislative and political relations with the UK Parliament. It argues that analysis of relations between the devolved Scottish Parliament and the UK Parliament, requires examination of both the political culture and political narratives surrounding constitutional governance and the future of the domestic UK union. Both play a pivotal role in shaping interparliamentary relations in the devolved UK. The paper draws on empirical research from two projects that used both documentary analysis of parliamentary sources and interviews with 35 parliamentarians and officials as a Commons Academic Fellow 2016–2021 and Scottish Parliament Academic Fellow 2022–2023. Both the political narrative and culture of interparliamentary relations between the UK Parliament and Scottish Parliament have been impacted arguably even more by the outcome of the 2016 UK EU Referendum than by the 2014 Scottish Independence Referendum.

‘We are Patriots, not Fascists:’ Spanish Nationalism in 2017

AbstractThe 2017 Catalan Independence Referendum prompted a historic resurgence of Spanish ‘centre’ nationalism. Such resurgence is indicative of a change in Spanish national identity as overt nationalism and is connotationally related to the Franco regime. This research focuses on the power and dissemination of newspaper narratives in the promotion and descriptions of such nationalism. Newspapers are discursively analysed to understand the decreasing reticence towards ‘centre’ nationalism in Spain, as evidenced by nationalist rhetoric and symbolism, and the significance of this change for the Spanish transition to democracy. It is found that the Catalan referendum inspired a strong counter‐reaction of dissociating centre‐periphery relations suggestive of pre‐democratic transition sentiments in the maintenance of the ‘centre’ as dominant and relegating the ‘periphery’ to its Franco‐era ‘threat’ status. Newspapers facilitated this shift in the nationalist narrative through their descriptions of the independence movement and the use of references and allusions to Spain's history and ‘near past.’

Cracking a nut with a sledgehammer: the Lord Advocate’s Reference on a second Scottish independence referendum in constitutional context

The UK Supreme Court’s judgment in the Reference by the Lord Advocate of Devolution Issues under Paragraph 34 of Schedule 6 to the Scotland Act 1998 [2022] UKSC 31 not only confirms that holding a second referendum on Scottish independence is outside the Scottish Parliament’s legislative competence but raises a series of important constitutional issues. These include the constitutional status of referendums, the importance of sub-state democracy and the sovereignty of the United Kingdom (UK) Parliament. Whilst the Court gives referendums more significance than they were previously thought to have, its reasoning invoking democracy and on parliamentary sovereignty suggests it has adopted a vision of the UK constitution in which UK-level authority is privileged over sub-state authority, to the detriment of subsidiarity and devolved autonomy.

The Catalan Digital Republic. A Theoretical Review

This theoretical review analyses digital nationalism in Catalonia. It describes the context of the confrontation between the pro- independence movement and the Spanish government. This confrontation is characterised by a paradigm dominated by negotiations, mobilisations, and repression, which eventually led to the 2017 independence referendum. The failure of the independence process led grassroots groups and major parties to develop original digital strategies. Whilst grassroots groups relied on digital tools to organise spectacular protests, the Junts per Catalunya (Together for Catalonia) party and the Consell de la República (Council of the Republic) organisation promoted the República Digital (Digital Republic) project. The study frames Catalan nationalism in relation to previous research on digital nationalism. It underlines how, in terms of actors involved and ideologies promoted, the Catalan secessionist project does not fit into models described by the academic literature about digital nationalism. Furthermore, this research analyses how the Digital Republic has been articulated by Catalan institutions and nationalist organisations in order to create a “virtual state”. Finally, the study discusses the Digital Republic as a strategy to avoid direct confrontation with the Spanish authorities and its attempt to create a “digital surrogate” to independence.

The independence referendum in Iraqi Kurdistan: the position of Egypt and the coverage in Egyptian online media

ABSTRACT On 25 September 2017, the Kurdistan Regional Government held an independence referendum, which the government of Iraq and the international community rejected. Ample research is dedicated to various aspects of the referendum, including the policy of the US, Turkey, and Iran. Meanwhile, the positions and perceptions of the Arab states—governments and societies—have largely remained in shadow. This study aims to uncover how the Egyptian online media addressed and framed the event and explain the policy of Egypt towards the issue. The main findings of the research are the following: there is a perception in the Egyptian online media that the referendum was encouraged or orchestrated by foreign actors, particularly the US, with an objective to reshape the regional map and weaken the Arab states. They think that if the Kurdish region were to secede from Iraq, it would have terrible consequences for the Arab countries, and Israel would have been the winner. The government of Egypt viewed the referendum issue primarily through the lens of security challenges. From Egypt’s perspective, the power vacuum in the region could potentially be exploited by terrorist and radical organizations, posing more significant and imminent threats to the country itself.

Young SNP members: socio-nationalism, identity and politics

Scotland is an interesting case study when it comes to politics, nationalism and identity. The separatist movement led by the Scottish National Party (SNP) raises a wide range of questions with regard to Scottish and British politics as well as people's sense of belonging. Given that young people are the generation most likely to witness a hypothetical second independence referendum in the future, this paper focuses on them. It examines the young members of the SNP. It explores the interconnection between Scottish politics and young SNP members' nationalism as well as their understanding of Scottishness. With the analysis of empirical research conducted from 2018 to 2020, it suggests that the Young Scots for Independence (YSI) and SNP Students' nationalism should be regarded as socio-nationalism. This paper defines it as the promotion of societal values and a certain perception of society combined with the promotion and defense of a nation. Interviews and questionnaires reveal that these young people define Scotland as socially just, equal and open. Overall, their definition of Scottishness is similar. In that sense, this paper argues that their political ideology and their sense of belonging are interrelated. This is highlighted by the fact that Scottish independence is, among other factors, the most significant reason why young people choose to become SNP members. It also highlights a relationship between their sense of Scottishness and their wish for Scotland to become independent. Therefore, this paper argues that young people's membership of the SNP and national identity are interrelated.

Navigating the Scottish Political Landscape: An Analysis of BBC Scotland in the Independence Era

AbstractThis essay examines the complex relationship between the BBC and Scotland's evolving political landscape, shedding light on the challenges faced by the broadcaster since the inception of devolution in 1999 and particularly the 2014 independence referendum. The study contends that the BBC, in its attempts to address accusations of inherent bias and to adapt to Scotland's unique political identity, may have overreacted. Examining the shift from regional opt‐outs to the establishment of the dedicated BBC Scotland channel in 2019, the essay argues that this strategic pivot may now be increasingly redundant amid the diminishing likelihood of a second independence referendum. This change challenges the channel's relevancy and poses commercial concerns for Scotland's production industry. Highlighting the risk of restricted appeal, this essay suggests that the declining relevance of the independence debate necessitates a re‐evaluation of the BBC's approach in Scotland. The analysis underscores the need for adapting to the still evolving Scottish political landscape and argues for strategic measures to ensure the continued relevance of the BBC in Scotland.

The Would-Be Independence Referendum of October 2023. A Lesson from Scotland

In the 2014 referendum Scottish voters were asked whether Scotland should be an independent country. Several years and one Brexit referendum later Nicola Sturgeon, the then popular and charismatic leader of the Scottish National Party and First Minister of Scotland, was making a convincing case for another independence referendum. She even proposed October 2023 as its date. But the United Kingdom government and successive Conservative prime ministers have consistently said “no”. This article analyses that constitutional and political ‘tug-of-war’ in the context of devolution settlement, pro-independence aspirations of Scottish people, consequences of Brexit, and growing tensions between Edinburgh and London. The most fundamental constitutional question within that frame of reference is what Scotland’s viable path to independence should be and in other words, under what circumstances the independence vision could be implemented.

The Quebec Secession Reference and the federal Clarity Act: the fascination with clarity and the value of ambiguity

This article examines the ongoing relevance of the Supreme Court of Canada’s Reference re Secession of Quebec (1998) in managing tensions arising from the coexistence of multiple political communities within a single constitutional order. It explores the lessons to be learned from this landmark case in light of recent debates such as the Scottish independence referendum and Catalonia’s “right to decide”. The article argues that, while the Reference provides a valuable framework for analysing multinational democracies and federal systems, caution should be exercised when employing the political and legal grammar associated with the federal Clarity Act. The latter, enacted by the Canadian federal Parliament after the Quebec Secession Reference, purported to clarify the Supreme Court’s advisory opinion, but actually aimed to exert control over Quebec’s potential secession. By examining the historical, political and legal context, the present article highlights the divergence between the federal Clarity Act and the spirit of the Quebec Secession Reference. It underscores the need to reassess the legacy of these events and their relevance in managing political and legal tensions within multinational democracies. It also invites scholars and political actors interested in these issues to appreciate the significance of ambiguity and avoid overestimating the advantages of clarity.

The Islamic State and the independence referendum: The role of foreign policy in maintaining the de facto Kurdish entity in Iraq

AbstractThe onslaught of the Islamic State of Iraq and Syria (hereafter ISIS) on the Kurdish de facto entity in Iraq in 2014 and the independence referendum in 2017 constituted two important episodes that impacted on the foreign policy of the Kurdish entity in multiple ways. This article analyzes and describes the foreign policies of the entity during and after these two episodes until the end of 2022. It attempts to answer the following two questions: How did the ISIS offensive briefly change the priorities of the Kurdish entity's leadership in terms of its foreign policy goals? Secondly, how did the independence referendum in the Kurdistan Region of Iraq and the subsequent events shape the foreign policy priorities of the Kurdish entity in Iraq? Through conducting interviews with high‐level Kurdish politicians and using recently published secondary source materials, this article argues that foreign policy and paradiplomacy played vital roles in the preservation of the KRI during these two very tough periods and that the Kurdish entity had to alter its domestic policy goals to achieve its foreign policy aims and ensure the survival of the Kurdish facto entity in Iraq.