The Would-Be Independence Referendum of October 2023. A Lesson from Scotland

Abstract

In the 2014 referendum Scottish voters were asked whether Scotland should be an independent country. Several years and one Brexit referendum later Nicola Sturgeon, the then popular and charismatic leader of the Scottish National Party and First Minister of Scotland, was making a convincing case for another independence referendum. She even proposed October 2023 as its date. But the United Kingdom government and successive Conservative prime ministers have consistently said “no”. This article analyses that constitutional and political ‘tug-of-war’ in the context of devolution settlement, pro-independence aspirations of Scottish people, consequences of Brexit, and growing tensions between Edinburgh and London. The most fundamental constitutional question within that frame of reference is what Scotland’s viable path to independence should be and in other words, under what circumstances the independence vision could be implemented.