Increased Storm Intensity Research Articles

Decadal scale patterns of shoreline variability in Paulatuk, N.W.T, Canada

ABSTRACTDynamic changes in shoreline position as a result of natural processes and the effects of climate variability increase the susceptibility of Arctic communities that reside along the coastal zone. The application of new geospatial approaches is critical to providing updated measurements of shoreline change, necessary for sustainable coastal management strategies. This research is an integration of geographic data demarcating shoreline position and its analysis to detect change using an updated modeling application – Analyzing Moving Boundaries Using R (AMBUR). Rates-of-change were evaluated over three time periods: long-term (1984–2016); and two short-term eras (1995–2005; 2006–2016). The short-term periods were specifically chosen to assess the influence of changing sea-ice regimes, increased storm intensity, and elevated air and sea-surface temperatures. Results indicate a significant alongshore increase in the rates of erosion and the spatial extent of land loss across both segments of the study area over the short-term. Mean annual rates of change increased over the most recent period (2006–2016) along the eastern segment (−0.34 m/yr) of the study area, while the western shoreline retreated at a rate of −0.24 m/yr over the same interval. These are the highest erosion rates over any time period examined in this study. As air and ocean temperature increases continue to facilitate sea ice reduction and increased permafrost thawing, shoreline erosion may be exacerbated along the Paulatuk coastline in the coming years.

The relative impact of future storminess versus offshore dredging on suspended sediment concentration in a shallow coastal embayment: Rødsand lagoon, western Baltic Sea

Natural and human-induced disturbances challenge the resilience of coastal ecosystems. The relative impact of a projected increase in storm intensity versus a temporary sediment spill from the construction of the planned Fehmarnbelt Fixed Link on the suspended sediment concentrations was estimated in the shallow coastal embayment of Rodsand lagoon. The investigations were performed through a combination of field observations and numerical modeling. The numerical model was calibrated and validated with the field observations. The lagoonal response to a regional increase in wind speed showed temporarily amplified suspended particulate matter concentration (SPMC) levels (26–37%) and amplified exceedance duration above wash load (30–32%) in the entire lagoon, but especially in the shallow regions. The lagoonal response to a sediment spill outside Rodsand lagoon showed temporarily amplified SPMC levels (2–4%) and amplified exceedance duration above wash load (1–2%) in the entire lagoon, but especially in the regions in close proximity to the spill source. The regional response to increasing wind speed was thus 10-fold larger than the sediment spill where only advective sediment transport took place. This highlights the importance of the internal lagoonal processes as opposed to exterior disturbances. The study contributed to an improved understanding of the potential natural and human-induced stressors on the sediment dynamics in lagoonal ecosystems.

Characterizing multi-decadal, annual land cover change dynamics in Houston, TX based on automated classification of Landsat imagery

ABSTRACTIn 2017, Hurricane Harvey caused substantial loss of life and property in the swiftly urbanizing region of Houston, TX. Now in its wake, researchers are tasked with investigating how to plan for and mitigate the impact of similar events in the future, despite expectations of increased storm intensity and frequency as well as accelerating urbanization trends. Critical to this task is the development of automated workflows for producing accurate and consistent land cover maps of sufficiently fine spatio-temporal resolution over large areas and long timespans. In this study, we developed an innovative automated classification algorithm that overcomes some of the traditional trade-offs between fine spatio-temporal resolution and extent – to produce a multi-scene, 30m annual land cover time series characterizing 21 years of land cover dynamics in the 35,000 km2 Greater Houston area. The ensemble algorithm takes advantage of the synergistic value of employing all acceptable Landsat imagery in a given year, using aggregate votes from the posterior predictive distributions of multiple image composites to mitigate against misclassifications in any one image, and fill gaps due to missing and contaminated data, such as those from clouds and cloud shadows. The procedure is fully automated, combining adaptive signature generalization and spatio-temporal stabilization for consistency across sensors and scenes. The land cover time series is validated using independent, multi-temporal fine-resolution imagery, achieving crisp overall accuracies between 78–86% and fuzzy overall accuracies between 91–94%. Validated maps and corresponding areal cover estimates corroborate what census and economic data from the Greater Houston area likewise indicate: rapid growth from 1997–2017, demonstrated by the conversion of 2,040 km2 (± 400 km2) to developed land cover, 14% of which resulted from the conversion of wetlands. Beyond its implications for urbanization trends in Greater Houston, this study demonstrates the potential for automated approaches to quantifying large extent, fine resolution land cover change, as well as the added value of temporally-dense time series for characterizing higher-order spatio-temporal dynamics of land cover, including periodicity, abrupt transitions, and time lags from underlying demographic and socio-economic trends.

Superstorms: Comments on Bahamian Fenestrae and Boulder Evidence from the Last Interglacial

ABSTRACT Mylroie, J.E., 2018. Superstorms: Comments on Bahamian fenestrae and boulder evidence from the Last Interglacial. Sea level during the last interglacial (Marine Isotope Substage 5e [MIS 5e]) was ∼6 m above present, interpreted to represent a warmer climate, with increased storm intensity and storm frequency. Two hypotheses have been advanced to demonstrate an increase in storm intensity during MIS 5e. The first considers fenestrae in eolian calcarenites at elevations up to 43 m in the Bahama Archipelago to be evidence of superstorm washover. Additional observations include rip-up clasts and loss of bedform and root structures as a result of wave scour. Such an event should produce a tempestite with a wide-ranging footprint, but none exists above 10 m. This paper argues that the fenestrae are rainfall slurries, rip-up clasts are weathering products of calcarenite protosol development, and bed-form and root structure absence or presence reflects transgressive-phase vs. regressive-phase eolian forma...

The extent of mangrove change and potential for recovery following severe Tropical Cyclone Yasi, Hinchinbrook Island, Queensland, Australia.

Cyclones are significant drivers of change within mangrove ecosystems with the extent of initial damage determined by storm severity, location and distribution (exposure), and influenced by species composition and structure (e.g., height). The long‐term recovery of mangroves is often dependent upon hydrological regimes, as well as the frequency of storm events. On February 3, 2011, Tropical Cyclone Yasi (Category 5) made landfall on the coast of north Queensland Australia with its path crossing the extensive mangroves within and surrounding Hinchinbrook Island National Park. Based on a combination of Landsat‐derived foliage projective cover (FPC), Queensland Globe aerial imagery, and RapidEye imagery, 16% of the 13,795 ha of mangroves experienced severe windthrow during the storm. The greatest damage from the cyclone was inflicted on mangrove forests dominated primarily by Rhizophora stylosa, whose large prop roots were unable to support them as wind speeds exceeded 280 km/hr. Classification of 2016 RapidEye data indicated that many areas of damage had experienced no or very limited recovery in the period following the cyclone, with this confirmed by a rapid decline in Landsat‐derived FPC (from levels > 90% from 1986 to just prior to the cyclone to < 20% postcyclone) and no noticeable increase in subsequent years. Advanced Land Observing Satellite (ALOS‐1) Phased Arrayed L‐band Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) L‐band HH backscatter also increased initially and rapidly to 5 ± 2 dB (2007–2011) due to the increase in woody debris but then decreased subsequently to −20 ± 2 dB (postcyclone), as this decomposed or was removed. The lack of recovery in affected areas was attributed to the inability of mangrove species, particularly R. stylosa, to resprout from remaining plant material and persistent inundation due to a decrease in sediment elevation thereby preventing propagule establishment. This study indicates that increases in storm intensity predicted with changes in global climate may lead to a reduction in the area, diversity, and abundance of mangroves surrounding Hinchinbrook Island.

Storm Impact on Morphological Evolution of a Sandy Inlet

AbstractObservations of waves, currents, and bathymetric change in shallow water (&lt;10‐m depth) both inside and offshore of a migrating inlet with strong (2–3 m/s) tidal currents and complex nearshore bathymetry show over 2.5 m of erosion and accretion resulting from each of two hurricanes (offshore wave heights &gt;8 m). A numerical model (Delft3D, 2DH mode) simulating waves, currents, and morphological change reproduces the observations with the inclusion of hurricane force winds and sediment transport parameters adjusted based on model‐data comparisons. For simulations of short hurricanes and longer nor'easters with identical offshore total time‐integrated wave energy, but different peak wave energies and storm durations, morphological change is correlated (R2 = 0.60) with storm intensity (total energy of the storm divided by the duration of the storm). Similarly, the erosion observed at the Sand Engine in the Netherlands is correlated with storm intensity. The observations and simulations suggest that the temporal distribution of energy in a storm event, as well as the total energy, impacts subsequent nearshore morphological change. Increased storm intensity enhances sediment transport in bathymetrically complex, mixed wave‐and‐tidal‐current energy environments, as well as at other wave‐dominated sandy beaches.

Hurricane Kinetic Energy Spectra from In Situ Aircraft Observations

Abstract Since the pioneering paper by Nastrom and Gage on aircraft-derived power spectra, significant progress has been made in understanding the wavenumber distribution of energy in Earth’s atmosphere and its implications for the intrinsic limits of weather forecasting. Improvements in tropical cyclone intensity predictions have lagged those of global weather forecasting, and limited intrinsic predictability may be partially responsible. In this study, we construct power spectra from aircraft data of over 1200 missions carried out by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) and Air Force Reserve Command (AFRC) Hurricane Hunters. Each mission is parsed into distinct flight legs, and legs meeting a specified set of criteria are used for spectral analysis. Here, we produce power spectra composites for each category of the Saffir–Simpson scale, revealing a systematic relationship between spectral slope and storm intensity. Specifically, as storm intensity increases, we find that 1) spectral slope becomes steeper across scales from 10 to 160 km and 2) the transition zone where spectral slope begins to steepen shifts downscale.

Punctuated transgression (?): Comment on Oliver, T.S.N., Donaldson, P., Sharples, C., Roach, M., and Woodroffe, C.D. “Punctuated progradation of the Seven Mile Beach Holocene barrier system, southeastern Tasmania”

Sea-level rise is known to have emplaced incipient sandy barriers during post-glacial marine transgression and these same barriers are forecast to erode or transgress as rising seas accelerate with global warming. In order for a barrier to prograded over the intervening millennia, a positive sediment budget must exist such that sand supplied to the coast is ample enough to fill the existing accommodation space (embayment) or a drop in sea-level forced seaward progradation. Storms have long been understood to repeatedly punctuate progradation over days to decades. Oliver et al. (2017a), however, present two periods of perceived pauses in progradation lasting centuries and millennia with each hiatus considered to have resulted from changes in sediment supply. Despite the sizable dataset, the there are gaps in the stratigraphy and chronology of barrier formation during these two specific time periods in question (~6500 to 3500 years ago and 500 years ago to present). Additionally, the morphology representing barrier evolution during ~6.5–3.5 ka is obscured by the selected rendering of the Light Detection And Ranging (LiDAR) data and breaks in the topographic profiles extracted from the LiDAR. Reanalysis of this data within the context of existing literature indicate that seaward progradation slowed, not paused, between ~6.5 to 3.5 ka. While this is not surprising for a site with no active riverine or longshore sediment source, the rapid progradation that follows is. This transition and the timing do make sense within the context of a fall from a mid-Holocene highstand, which is debated in this far-field region of Australia. Furthermore, it is apparent that the last few centuries do not represent a hiatus in barrier deposition, but rather a termination in progradation and transition to erosion and transgression. The barrier is not likely to resume prograding seaward, but continue to erode and transgress in the future due to the forecast acceleration in sea-level rise and increase in storm intensity associated with global warming.

Impact of mussel bioengineering on fine-grained sediment dynamics in a coastal lagoon: A numerical modelling investigation

Abstract Rodsand lagoon in southeast Denmark is a non-tidal coastal lagoon. It is home to a wide range of marine flora and fauna and part of the Natura 2000 network. An increase in turbidity through elevated levels of suspended sediment concentration (SSC) within the lagoon may affect the ecosystem health due to reduced light penetration. Increasing SSC levels within Rodsand lagoon could be caused by increasing storm intensity or by a sediment spill from dredging activities west of the lagoon in relation to the planned construction of the Fehmarnbelt fixed link between Denmark and Germany. The aim of the study was to investigate the impact of a mussel reef on sediment import and SSC in a semi-enclosed lagoon through the development of a bioengineering modelling application that makes it possible to include the filtrating effect of mussels in a numerical model of the lagoonal system. The numerical implementation of an exterior mussel reef generated a reduction in the SSC in the vicinity of the reef, through the adjacent inlet and in the western part of the lagoon. The mussel reef reduced the sediment import to Rodsand lagoon by 13–22% and reduced the SSC within Rodsand lagoon by 5–9% depending on the filtration rate and the reef length. The results suggest that the implementation of a mussel reef has the potential to relieve the pressure of increasing turbidity levels within a semi-enclosed lagoonal system. However, further assessment and development of the bioengineering application and resulting ecosystem impacts are necessary prior to actual implementation.

AN AGENT-BASED MODEL TO EVALUATE HOUSING DYNAMICS OF COASTAL COMMUNITIES FACING STORMS AND SEA LEVEL RISE

An agent-based model (ABM) is developed to explore the effects of storms and sea level rise (SLR) on soft-engineered coastal management actions and households’ housing decisions at the coastal town of Nags Head in North Carolina, USA. The ABM links the behavior of household agents (individual homeowners) and town agents (coastal managers) with morphological coastal evolution caused by long-term erosion, sea level rise, and storms. Storm impacts are determined by combining the process-based model XBeach (Roelvink, 2009) outputs with the ABM framework. The integrated ABM framework is applied to simulate occupation dynamics and community viability under forcing from storms and sea level rise over a time frame of 50 years. A timeline with storm events was created using historical data and the intensity of the storm in the midpoint of the timeline was varied to explore the effect of storm intensity on the community. Simulations demonstrated a strong link between the intensity of storms and household occupancy. Results suggest that increased storm intensity hinders development and in some cases can cause community occupation growth to stagnate or decline. The results also indicate a feedback loop between the natural processes, management decisions, and household decisions. After a severe storm, buildings are damaged, expenses are increased, and occupation declines. A diminished community cannot invest in protection measures and in turn becomes more vulnerable to future storms. A tipping point may occur, where the community stagnates with respect to its household occupation. To investigate the influence of varying sea level rise rates on community occupancy dynamics, the model was forced with different sea level rise scenarios, including no sea level rise, a constant rate of sea level rise, and two scenarios with accelerated sea level rise. The scenario with no sea level rise showed a considerably more attractive community than the scenarios with sea level rise. This was attributed to (1) absence of expenses incurred in other scenarios to mitigate recession caused by sea level rise and (2) lower flooding risk.

Mangroves as a protection from storm surges in a changing climate.

Adaptation to climate change includes addressing sea-level rise (SLR) and increased storm surges in many coastal areas. Mangroves can substantially reduce vulnerability of the adjacent coastal land from inundation but SLR poses a threat to the future of mangroves. This paper quantifies coastal protection services of mangroves for 42 developing countries in the current climate, and a future climate change scenario with a 1-m SLR and 10 % intensification of storms. Findings demonstrate that while SLR and increased storm intensity would increase storm surge areas, the greatest impact is from the expected loss of mangroves. Under current climate and mangrove coverage, 3.5million people and GDP worth roughly US $400million are at risk. In the future climate change scenario, vulnerable population and GDP at risk would increase by 103 and 233 %. The greatest risk is in East Asia, especially in Indonesia and the Philippines as well as Myanmar.

A revised L-band radio-brightness sensitivity to extreme winds under Tropical Cyclones: the five year SMOS-storm database

Abstract Five years of SMOS L-band brightness temperature data intercepting a large number of tropical cyclones (TCs) are analyzed. The storm-induced half-power radio-brightness contrast (ΔI) is defined as the difference between the brightness observed at a specific wind force and that for a smooth water surface with the same physical parameters. ΔI can be related to surface wind speed and has been estimated for ~ 300 TCs that intercept with SMOS measurements. ΔI, expressed in a common storm-centric coordinate system, shows that mean brightness contrast monotonically increases with increased storm intensity ranging from ~ 5 K for strong storms to ~ 24 K for the most intense Category 5 TCs. A remarkable feature of the 2D mean ΔI fields and their variability is that maxima are systematically found on the right quadrants of the storms in the storm-centered coordinate frame, consistent with the reported asymmetric structure of the wind and wave fields in hurricanes. These results highlight the strong potential of SMOS measurements to improve monitoring of TC intensification and evolution. An improved empirical geophysical model function (GMF) was derived using a large ensemble of co-located SMOS ΔI, aircraft and H*WIND (a multi-measurement analysis) surface wind speed data. The GMF reveals a quadratic relationship between ΔI and the surface wind speed at a height of 10 m (U10). ECMWF and NCEP analysis products and SMOS derived wind speed estimates are compared to a large ensemble of H*WIND 2D fields. This analysis confirms that the surface wind speed in TCs can effectively be retrieved from SMOS data with an RMS error on the order of 10 kt up to 100 kt. SMOS wind speed products above hurricane force (64 kt) are found to be more accurate than those derived from NWP analyses products that systematically underestimate the surface wind speed in these extreme conditions. Using co-located estimates of rain rate, we show that the L-band radio-brightness contrasts could be weakly affected by rain or ice-phase clouds and further work is required to refine the GMF in this context.

What you foresee is what you get

Climate Change![Figure][1] Monument Valley, Arizona, in the arid southwest of the United States © DUNCAN PHILLIPS/ALAMY STOCK PHOTO Climate models predict that the U.S. southwest will receive less precipitation over the next century, while the northeast and midwest will experience significant increases. Observations show that these projected trends have already begun in the northeast and midwest, but the large natural variability of rainfall in the southwest has made the identification of any trends there equivocal. Prein et al. present an analysis that shows that observations do in fact indicate that a transition to a drier climate state in the southwest is under way. They attribute this shift to a decrease in the frequency of precipitation events in the region, in contrast to the increases in storm intensity that are causing more precipitation to fall in other parts of the country. Geophys. Res. Lett. 10.1002/2015GL066727 (2016). [1]: pending:yes

Simulating the impact of roads on hydrological responses: examples from Swedish terrain

In this study, the potential impacts of road topography on hydrologic responses at the watershed scale were simulated. The method considered used a geographic information system to identify road embankment locations and subsequently remove them from the baseline elevation data. Starting from both the ‘with’ and ‘without’ road elevation model, the surface and near-surface hydrological responses for 20 watersheds in Sweden were modeled in HEC-HMS under three different storm intensities. Flow duration curves (FDCs) were used to compare hydrologic responses for the different modeling scenarios under the various storm intensities. Specifically, L-moment ratios of the FDCs were calculated and their variation compared. Results showed an increase in peak flow amounts and reduction in time to peak with increased storm intensity. In addition, variations of the L-moment ratios were larger in larger watersheds. However, the impact of the roads on the modeled hydrologic responses was much smaller than anticipated and only identifiable through detailed examination of the L-moment statistical descriptors. Our findings not only highlight the potential impacts of road topography on watershed-scale hydrology (especially concerning high intensity storms) but also provide a methodology for detecting the even rather small changes that could manifest, for example, under coupled road network and climatic changes.

Seasonal Electrical Resistivity Surveys of a Coastal Bluff, Barter Island, North Slope Alaska

Select coastal regions of the North Slope of Alaska are experiencing high erosion rates that can be attributed in part to recent warming trends and associated increased storm intensity and frequency. The upper sediment column of the coastal North Slope of Alaska can be described as continuous permafrost underlying a thin (typically less than 1–2 m) active layer that responds variably to seasonal thaw cycles. Assessing the temporal and spatial variability of the active layer and underlying permafrost is essential to better constrain how heightened erosion may impact material fluxes to the atmosphere and the coastal ocean, and how enhanced thaw cycles may impact the stability of the coastal bluffs. In this study, multi-channel electrical resistivity tomography (ERT) was used to image shallow subsurface features of a coastal bluff west of Kaktovik, on Barter Island, northeast Alaska. A comparison of a suite of paired resistivity surveys conducted in early and late summer 2014 provided detailed information on how the active layer and permafrost are impacted during the short Arctic summer. Such results are useful in the development of coastal resilience models that tie together fluvial, terrestrial, climatic, geologic, and oceanographic forcings on shoreline stability.

A Planting Guide for Coastal Communities

A coastal planting guide is presented as a tool for Extension professionals to create and promote for landscapers and property owners in coastal areas. As coastal regions are subject to salt spray and occasional flooding, information is needed on native plants that can grow under such conditions. Such a guide should include salt spray and soil salt tolerances of native plants in addition to growth preferences. With increasing population pressures in coastal areas and predictions of increased storm intensity and frequency due to climate change, this tool can guide coastal residents and the landscaping industry in sustainable choices and practices.

The Diurnal Cycle of Precipitation in Tropical Cyclones

Abstract Position and intensity data from the International Best Track Archive for Climate Stewardship (IBTrACS) are combined with global, gridded precipitation estimates from the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) Multisatellite Precipitation Analysis (TMPA) for the period 1998–2013 to study the diurnal cycle of precipitation in tropical cyclones. The comprehensive global coverage and large sample size afforded by the two datasets allow robust statistical analysis of storm-averaged diurnal variations and permit stratification of the data in various ways. There is a clearly detectable diurnal variation of precipitation in tropical cyclones with peak rainfall occurring near 0600 local time. For storms of all intensities the amplitude of the diurnal harmonic, which dominates the diurnal cycle, is approximately 7% of the mean rain rate. This corresponds to a peak-to-peak variation of about 15% over the course of the day. The diurnal cycle is similar in all ocean basins. There is evidence that the amplitude of the diurnal cycle increases with increasing storm intensity, but the results are not statistically significant. The results have implications for hurricane forecasting and for a greater understanding of the processes that regulate oceanic convection.

Sea level rise and storm surge effects in a coastal heterogeneous aquifer: a 2D modelling study in northern Germany

Climate change will affect coastal groundwater resources due to the mean sea level rise (MSLR) and an increase in storm intensity and frequency. Increasing saltwater intrusion from the subsurface as well as intrusion into aquifers from land-surface storm surges can be expected. We numerically investigate the impacts of MSLR and storm surge events in a 2D cross-sectional aquifer at the North-German coast using the coupled surface-subsurface approach of the HydroGeoSphere model. Aquifer heterogeneity is considered to investigate the influence of heterogeneity on the migration of salt plumes in the aquifer. A 1 m MSLR causes the saltwater/freshwater interface to migrate up to 1250 m landward, and the salinized area of the aquifer to expand up to 2050 m landward. Results from a storm surge simulation show that salt plume fingers develop below the flooded land surface, however, the fate of the salt plumes is highly dependent on the hydraulic conductivity of the subsurface.

Methodology for Predicting Local Impacts of Sea Level Rise

In the future, south Florida will be flush with water due to sea level rise and increased storm intensity, meaning there are three options to deal with this problem – retreat, offshore discharges or finding a use for the water. The first is not an option so the others must be evaluated. To do so, the first task needed to identify solutions to this problem is to define the severity of the problem through a vulnerability analysis so the appropriate decisions can be made. Aims: The objectives of this research were to develop an accurate methodology for predicting impacts of sea level rise and rainfall patterns at the local level by identifying how existing topographic, groundwater and tidal data sources can be utilized to identify infrastructure vulnerable to sea level rise and flooding. Original Research Article Bloetscher et al.; BJAST, 7(1): 84-96, 2015; Article no.BJAST.2015.127 85 Study Design: Based on a study of monitoring well water levels on Miami Beach, it was noted that during the year, groundwater levels fluctuate due to tidal levels and rainfall, with the Fall king tides creating the highest vulnerability to infrastructure and property. Once vulnerability is defined a toolbox of options can be developed to deal with local issues. Results: The research found that the tides create a much larger vulnerability than current sea level rise analyses suggest and that the king tides drive the level of service for the community, while altering the dynamics of future stormwater planning efforts. To mitigate the impacts of flooding will require new ideas for dealing with excess waters. A toolbox of options was developed. Conclusion: One item that arose was that there is potential to use stormwater adaptation strategies to create future water supplies.

Aerosol Indirect Effects on Idealized Tropical Cyclone Dynamics

Abstract The desire to improve the forecasting skill of the intensity and size of tropical cyclones has prompted the investigation into numerous physical processes that can impact these quantities. The modification of cloud properties via aerosols injected into a tropical cyclone can initiate interactions between cloud microphysics and storm dynamics that ultimately lead to appreciable changes in the large-scale features of the storm. In this modeling study it is shown that the introduction of aerosols at the periphery of an idealized tropical cyclone can impact both the intensity and size of the storm. In general, the storm intensity increases and the storm size decreases with increasing aerosol number concentration. Results from a sensitivity study to the aerosol number concentration in a source located at the storm periphery reveal that the storm intensity is increased up to 17%, and the storm size is reduced up to roughly 16% for aerosol concentrations ranging from 100 to 2000 cm−3. The storm response is approximately a monotonic function of the aerosol concentration amounts. Despite the increase in storm intensity for the heavily polluted case, the overall destructive potential of this case is reduced due to the significant decrease in the storm size.