Tobacco Tax Increase Research Articles

Tobacco Tax Increases: A Discourse Analysis of the French Print and Web News Media from 2000 to 2020.

Lobbying led by the tobacco industry and tobacconists is a barrier to reducing smoking prevalence in France. Here, we analyze the discourse of the tobacco industry and other key actors (public health agencies, politicians, etc.) in the French general-audience news media from 2000 to 2020 around tobacco tax increases, which is one of the most effective tobacco control measures, especially amongst youth. We queried Europresse (a European news media and specialized press database) using the keywords "increase", "price or taxes", and "tobacco or cigarettes", and found 5409 topic-relevant articles, from which we extracted 8015 arguments for or against the measure. In total,64.3% were against the measure (mostly on grounds of "ufueling the black market"), 32.1% were for the measure (mostly claiming it is "effective at reducing smoking prevalence"), and 1.8% proposed alternative measures. Tobacconists, the primary source of media content on the topic, led a discourse that was strongly opposed to tax increases. Public health agencies, which attracted only half as much media attention, were strongly supportive of the measure. Analysis of discourses relayed in the French general-audience press revealed overwhelming opposition to tobacco tax increases, and this discourse was widely advanced by tobacconists. The results were congruent with international literature that had highlighted a similar set of arguments to those found in the French general press that were broadcasted by the tobacco industry and its allies (tobacconists in France) in an effort to block this evidence-based public health measure.

Cigarette availability and affordability among Chinese youth smokers: Findings from the 2019 China Youth Tobacco Survey.

Preventing youth from tobacco use is a priority for tobacco control in China, and the government has taken many measures such as introducing tobacco control in the health education curriculum, banning smoking in school, promoting smoke-free household, and advocacy campaigns. The objective of this study was to understand the availability and affordability of cigarettes for middle school (MS) and high school (HS) students in China. The data were extracted from the 2019 China National Youth Tobacco Survey, which was a school-based cross-sectional survey with a nationally representative sample of 288192 MS and HS students. The survey employed a randomized multistage stratified cluster sampling design with probability proportional to size sampling method and used an anonymous self-administrated questionnaire to collect data. The availability and affordability of cigarettes were analyzed, and all parameter estimates were weighted to account for the complex sampling design. In 2019, an estimated 80.5% of current smokers who were aged <18 years bought cigarettes in the past 30 days. Among them, 83.3% (83.0% of males and 85.2% of females; and 76.5% in MS and 87.6% in HS) had not been refused purchase of cigarettes because they were underage, with 84.1% in urban and 82.9% in rural areas, and 87.3% in central, 83.4% in eastern, and 80.5% in western regions of China. Among current smokers who bought cigarettes in the past 30 days, 77.3% had bought a pack of cigarettes (20 cigarettes) costing >10 RMB and at least 61.4% had more pocket money per week than the cost of a pack of cigarettes. Although 84.2% of current smokers bought cigarettes by the pack, 9.2% of current smokers reported that they bought cigarettes as sticks. Although the youth smoking rate dropped down from 2014 to 2019, the proportion of youth smokers that bought cigarettes was still high in China. Due to the high amount of pocket money, the current cigarette price was not an effective price barrier to prevent youth smoking. Selling cigarettes by the stick worsens the situation. Strengthening the enforcement of the 2021 Law on the Protection of Minors, increasing tobacco taxes and prices, and forbidding the selling of cigarette sticks, might assist the progress in youth tobacco control.

No smoking gun: tobacco taxation and smuggling in Sierra Leone

ObjectiveTo evaluate the common industry claim that higher tobacco taxation leads to higher levels of smuggling, particularly in a limited state capacity setting.DesignThis paper evaluates the effects of a tobacco...

The potential distributional health and financial benefits of increased tobacco taxes in Ethiopia: Findings from a modeling study

Ethiopia raised taxes on tobacco products in early 2020, increasing the overall price of the typical pack of cigarettes by about 67%. We quantify the potential impacts of Ethiopia's tobacco tax hike on various outcomes—life years, tax revenues, cigarette expenditures and catastrophic health expenditures (CHE). Using parameters like price elasticity of demand for cigarettes and smoking prevalence in Ethiopia from the existing literature and secondary data sources, we model the potential implications of the reform at the population level and for different wealth quintiles. We focus only on men since a small proportion of Ethiopian women smoke. Results indicate that Ethiopia's tax hike could induce a significant proportion of current smokers to quit smoking and thereby save almost eight million years of life in the current population. The reform is also likely to increase tax revenues by USD26 million in the first year after its introduction. The richest quintile will bear the greatest share of this higher tax burden and the poorest will bear the least. Additionally, deaths due to the main diseases associated with smoking will fall. This is expected to avert up to 173,000 CHE cases due to the out-of-pocket costs that would have been incurred in obtaining medical treatment. This analysis highlights that cigarette tax hikes in countries that have low smoking prevalence can reduce smoking even further, and thereby protect against the future health and financial costs of smoking. Importantly, the effects of these policies can be progressive across the income spectrum.

Tobacco Taxes as the Unsung Hero: Impact of a Tax Increase on Advancing Sustainable Development in Colombia.

Objective: Tobacco taxes are a well-established cost-effective policy to prevent Noncommunicable Diseases. This paper evaluates the expected effects of a tobacco tax increase on the Sustainable Development Goals in Colombia. Methods: We use microsimulation to build an artificial society that mimics the observed characteristics of Colombia’s population, and from there we simulate the behavioral response to a tax increase of COP$4,750 (an increase that has been discussed by policy makers and legislators) and the subsequent effects in all SDGs. Results: The tobacco tax hike reduces the number of smokers (from 4.51 to 3.45 MM smokers) and smoking intensity, resulting in a drop in the number of cigarettes smoked in Colombia (from 332.3 to 215.5 MM of 20-stick packs). Such reduction is expected to decrease premature mortality, healthcare costs, poverty and people facing catastrophic expenditure on healthcare, to increase health, income and gender equity, and to strengthen domestic resource mobilization even in the presence of illicit cigarettes. Conclusion: Tobacco taxes are an effective intervention for public health and a powerful instrument to advance on the 2030 Sustainable Development Agenda. Relevance: A comprehensive analysis of the impact of tobacco taxes on all areas of Sustainable Development is missing in the empirical literature. Such perspective is needed to break the barriers for further tobacco tax increases by gathering wider societal support, especially from stakeholders and key decision makers from development areas other than health. SDG Nr: SDG3 (health), SDG 1 (no poverty), SDG 4 (education), SDG 5 (gender equality), SDG6 (water), SDG10 (inequality), SDG12 (responsible production and consumption), SDG17 (partnerships).

The estimated benefits of increasing cigarette prices through taxation on the burden of disease and economic burden of smoking in Nigeria: A modeling study.

Globally, tobacco consumption continues to cause a considerable burden of preventable diseases. Although the smoking prevalence in Nigeria may be declining over the last years, the absolute number of active smokers remains one of the highest in Africa. Little is known about the disease burden and economic costs of cigarette smoking in Nigeria. Consequently, there is an evidence gap to inform the design and implementation of an effective policy for tobacco control. We applied a microsimulation model to estimate the burden attributable to smoking in terms of morbidity, mortality, disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs), and direct medical costs and indirect costs (e.g., productivity loss costs, informal caregivers' costs). We also modeled the health and economic impact of different scenarios of tobacco price increases through taxes. We estimated that smoking is responsible for approximately 29,000 annual deaths in Nigeria. This burden corresponds to 816,230 DALYs per year. In 2019, the total economic burden attributable to tobacco was estimated at ₦ 634 billion annually (approximately U$D 2.07 billion). If tobacco cigarettes' prices were to be raised by 50% through taxes, more than 30,000 deaths from smoking-attributable diseases would be averted in 10 years, with subsequent savings on direct and indirect costs of ₦597 billion and increased tax revenue collection of ₦369 billion. In Nigeria, tobacco is responsible for substantial health and economic burden. Increasing tobacco taxes could reduce this burden and produce net economic benefits.

Illicit trade in tobacco products: recent trends and coming challenges

BackgroundIllicit trade in tobacco products is a menace to the goal of eliminating tobacco consumption. Although tax policy is very effective in reducing consumption, illicit trade can reduce (though not...

State-Level Social and Economic Policies and Their Association With Perinatal and Infant Outcomes.

Rates of preterm birth and infant mortality are alarmingly high in the United States. Legislated efforts may directly or indirectly reduce adverse perinatal and infant outcomes through the enactment of certain economic and social policies. We conducted a narrative review to summarize the associations between perinatal and infant outcomes and four state-level US policies. We then used a latent profile analysis to create a social and economic policy profile for each state based on the observed policy indicators. Of 27 articles identified, nine focused on tax credits, eight on paid parental leave, four on minimum wages, and six on tobacco taxes. In all but three studies, these policies were associated with improved perinatal or infant outcomes. Thirty-three states had tax credit laws, most commonly the earned income tax credit (n = 28, 56%). Eighteen states had parental leave laws. Two states had minimum wage laws lower than the federal minimum; 14 were equal to the federal minimum; 29 were above the federal minimum; and 5 did not have a state law. The average state tobacco tax was $1.76 (standard deviation = $1.08). The latent profile analysis revealed three policy profiles, with the most expansive policies in Western and Northeastern US states, and the least expansive policies in the US South. State-level social and economic policies have the potential to reduce adverse perinatal and infant health outcomes in the United States. Those states with the least expansive policies should therefore consider enacting these evidence-based policies, as they have shown a demonstratable benefit in other states.

Seven-year tobacco tax plan in Ukraine: a case study of the actors, tactics and factors motivating policy passage

ObjectiveIn December 2017, the Ukrainian Rada passed legislation that would increase tobacco taxes for the next 7 years to meet requirements of the European Union-Ukraine Association Agreement (EU-UAA). We analysed...

Tobacco industry in Mexico: a general equilibrium analysis

ObjectiveEffects of tobacco taxation on employment in Mexico are measured by using an applied general equilibrium model.MethodsThe study describes the modelling methodology based on a 2013 social accounting matrix for...

The distributional effects of tobacco tax increases across regions in Mexico: an extended cost-effectiveness analysis

BackgroundSeveral studies have shown the beneficial effects of tobacco fiscal policy, but distributional effects have been less examined, especially at the subnational level. The objective of this study is to analyse the distributional effects of a one-peso tobacco tax increase (roughly equivalent to tripling the current excise tax) on health, poverty, and financial outcomes at the subnational level in Mexico.MethodsWe employ an extended cost-effectiveness analysis that estimates life-years gained, smoking attributable deaths averted, treatment costs averted, number of persons avoiding poverty and catastrophic health expenditures, and additional tax revenues by income group across five regions.ResultsWith the one-peso tax increase (or 44% price increase), about 1.5 million smokers would quit smoking across the five regions, resulting in nearly 630 thousand premature deaths averted and 12.6 million life years gained. The bottom income quintile would gain three times more life years gains than the top quintile (ratio 3:1), and the largest gain for the most deprived would occur in the South (ratio 19:1), the region with the highest poverty incidence. Costs averted and additional tax revenues would reach 44.6 and 16.2 billion pesos, respectively. Moreover, 251 thousand individuals would avoid falling into poverty, including 53.2 in the lowest income quintile, and 563.9 thousand would avoid catastrophic health expenditures. Overall, the bottom income group would obtain 26% of the life years gained and 24% of the cost averted, while only paying 3% of the additional tax revenue.ConclusionsThe most significant gains from a substantial cigarette price increase would be for the poorest 20%, especially in the South, the most impoverished region of Mexico. Therefore, tobacco taxes are an opportunity for governments to advance in equity and towards the achievement of sustainable development goals on non-communicable diseases.

Differential price responses for tobacco consumption: implications for tax incidence

Increasing tobacco taxes is considered the most effective an cost-effective policy to reduce tobacco consumption. However, a common objection to tobacco taxes is that they tend to rely disproportionately on...

Quantile regression of tobacco tax pass-through in the UK 2013–2019. How have manufacturers passed through tax changes for different tobacco products?

BackgroundThe effectiveness of tax increases relies heavily on the tobacco industry passing on such increases to smokers (also referred to as ‘pass-through’). Previous research has found heterogeneous levels of tax...

Tobacco price and use following California Proposition 56 tobacco tax increase.

BackgroundCalifornia Proposition 56 increased cigarette excise tax by $2 per pack with equivalent increases on non-cigarette tobacco products. We estimated the changes in cigarette price, cigarette use, and non-cigarette use following the implementation of Proposition 56 in California in 2017.MethodsSeven waves of Tobacco Use Supplements to the Current Population Survey (TUS-CPS) 2011–2019 data were used to obtain state-level aggregate self-reported outcomes, including cigarette price per pack, current and daily cigarette use, cigarette consumption per day, and current and daily use of non-cigarette tobacco products (hookah, pipe, cigar, and smokeless tobacco). A modified version of a synthetic control method was used to create a “synthetic” California that best resembled pre-policy sociodemographic characteristics and outcome trends in California while correcting time-invariant pre-policy differences. Various sensitivity analyses were also conducted.ResultsThe implementation of Proposition 56 was associated with an increase in self-reported cigarette price per pack in California ($1.844, 95%CI: $0.153, $3.534; p = 0.032). No evidence suggested that Proposition 56 was associated with the changes in the prevalence of current or daily cigarette use, cigarette consumption per day, or the prevalence of current or daily use of non-cigarette tobacco products.ConclusionMost of the cigarette tax increase following Proposition 56 in California was passed on to consumers. There is a lack of evidence that the implementation of Proposition 56 was associated with the changes in the use of cigarettes and other tobacco products such as hookah, pipe, cigar, and smokeless tobacco.

The determinants of the demand for tobacco in Togo

This paper analyzes the relationship between the demand for tobacco, its price and the economic factors that may influence it. The objective is to understand the response of consumers to an increase in tobacco prices. The price increase is assumed to be caused by the effect of increasing tobacco taxes, which is a major tobacco control policy. This paper also analyzes the reaction of smokers to an increase in the prices of other goods in the economy. To achieve this objective, we estimate the elasticities of these factors through the tobacco demand models proposed in the literature. The price of tobacco, consumer income per capita, the price of goods such as food and health care, and the strengthening of anti-smoking laws are among the variables used to estimate the demand equations for tobacco. The results of the estimations indicate first that the demand for tobacco is highly elastic with respect to its price; the price elasticity is estimated at -1.368. Tobacco demand is also sensitive to consumer income and the strengthening of anti-smoking laws. In contrast, changes in the prices of other non-addictive goods in the economy, such as food, have no influence on the demand for tobacco products. This means that when the price of other products increases, smokers are likely to reduce the quantity of these products consumed in order to maintain their level of tobacco consumption.

Turning a threat into an opportunity: British American Tobacco’s weakening of the Protocol to Eliminate Illicit Trade in Tobacco Products

BackgroundPrevious research has outlined transnational tobacco company (TTC) efforts to undermine implementation of the Protocol to Eliminate Illicit Trade in Tobacco Products (Protocol) and evidence of ongoing TTC complicity in...

An empirical analysis of the effect of tobacco taxation on economic growth in 38 African countries

AbstractGlobally, tobacco use claims millions of lives every year. This has necessitated policy responses including tax measures aimed at reducing the consumption of tobacco. Nonetheless, opponents of tobacco taxation posit that, it may hurt economic growth. This study, therefore, examines the effect of tobacco taxation on economic growth in 38 African countries from 2008 to 2018. The system generalised method of moments (GMM) regression is used as the estimation technique. The findings show that, tobacco taxation enhances economic growth both in the short‐ and long‐run periods, especially, through its effect on population health. Thus, African governments should be confident when increasing tobacco tax because, it has an added advantage of propelling economic growth.

Inequality-Reducing Effects of Tobacco Tax Increase: Accounting for Behavioral Response of Low-, Middle-, and High-Income Households in Serbia.

While previous research has indicated that increasing tobacco excises is a crucial instrument for lowering tobacco demand, this policy has been criticized for its alleged regressive impact on the poor. However, this critique does not take into account the behavioral response, i.e., decrease in consumption that occurs after excises and prices increase. In this paper, we examine the effect of cigarettes’ price increase on tobacco consumption, household expenditures, and tax burdens in three income groups and provide empirical arguments on the regressivity/progressivity effects of tobacco tax increase. Estimated elasticities indicate that all groups decrease their cigarettes demand with increasing prices, with demand decrease stronger for low- than for middle- and high-income households. Results further suggest that increasing tobacco excises (1) decreases tobacco expenditure of low-income households, which increases their productive consumption, such as on food, clothes, etc., and (2) redistributes the tobacco tax burden from low- to high-income households. Therefore, excise increase policies do not have an adverse effect on the position of the low-income households; on the contrary, they lower their cigarettes expenditure and their tax burden, while lower cigarettes consumption has an additional, positive effect on their health, which attenuates future inequalities.

Reducing the Burden of Disease Through Tobacco Taxes in Mongolia: A Health Impact Analysis Using a Dynamic Public Health Model.

Background/ObjectivesSmoking is the leading risk factor for many chronic diseases. The quantitative analysis of potential health gains from reduced smoking is important for establishing priorities in Mongolia’s health policy. This study quantifies the effect of tobacco-tax increases on future smoking prevalence and the associated smoking-related burden of disease in Mongolia.MethodsThe dynamic model for health impact assessment (DYNAMO-HIA) tool was used. The most recent data were used as input for evaluating tobacco-taxation scenarios. Demographic data were taken from the Mongolian Statistical Information Services. Smoking data came from a representative population-based STEPS survey, and smoking-related disease data were obtained from the health-information database of Mongolia’s National Health Center. Simulation was used to evaluate various levels of one-time price increases on tobacco products (25% and 75%) in Mongolia. Conservative interpretation suggests that the population will eventually adjust to the higher tobacco price and return to baseline smoking behaviors.ResultsOver a three-year period, smoking prevalence would be reduced by 1.2% points, corresponding to almost 40 thousand smokers at the population level for a price increase of 75%, compared to the baseline scenario. Projected health benefits of this scenario suggest that more than 137 thousand quality adjusted of life years would be gained by avoiding smoking-related diseases within a population of three million over a 30-year period.DiscussionPrevention through effective tobacco-control policy could yield considerable gains in population health in Mongolia. Compared to current policy, tax increases must be higher to have a significant effect on population health.ImplicationsTobacco taxation is an effective policy for reducing the harm of tobacco smoking, while benefiting population health in countries where the tobacco epidemic is still in an early stage. Smoking prevalence and smoking behaviors in these countries differ from those in Western countries. Reducing the uptake of smoking among young people could be a particularly worthwhile benefit of tobacco-tax increases.

Impact of tobacco tax increase in 2016 and 2019 in retail prices in Vietnam

Impact of tobacco tax increase in 2016 and 2019 in retail prices in Vietnam