The determinants of the demand for tobacco in Togo

Makiliwè Barcola

doi:10.47191/ijmra/v4-i10-04

Abstract

This paper analyzes the relationship between the demand for tobacco, its price and the economic factors that may influence it. The objective is to understand the response of consumers to an increase in tobacco prices. The price increase is assumed to be caused by the effect of increasing tobacco taxes, which is a major tobacco control policy. This paper also analyzes the reaction of smokers to an increase in the prices of other goods in the economy. To achieve this objective, we estimate the elasticities of these factors through the tobacco demand models proposed in the literature. The price of tobacco, consumer income per capita, the price of goods such as food and health care, and the strengthening of anti-smoking laws are among the variables used to estimate the demand equations for tobacco. The results of the estimations indicate first that the demand for tobacco is highly elastic with respect to its price; the price elasticity is estimated at -1.368. Tobacco demand is also sensitive to consumer income and the strengthening of anti-smoking laws. In contrast, changes in the prices of other non-addictive goods in the economy, such as food, have no influence on the demand for tobacco products. This means that when the price of other products increases, smokers are likely to reduce the quantity of these products consumed in order to maintain their level of tobacco consumption.

Highlights

Tobacco use is the major preventable cause of death from Non-Communicable Diseases according to the World Health Organization (WHO, 2019)
The situation is much more concerning when we realize that nearly 860 million smokers live in low-income countries where health care remains a major challenge, making tobacco use the largest public health epidemic in Sub-Saharan Africa
The harmful effects of smoking on the health and economy of poor countries are often brandished by advocates of public health theory, according to whom it is more than necessary for public authorities to intervene to fight against this scourge and to protect smokers from themselves

Summary

Introduction

Tobacco use is the major preventable cause of death from Non-Communicable Diseases according to the World Health Organization (WHO, 2019). The situation is much more concerning when we realize that nearly 860 million smokers live in low-income countries where health care remains a major challenge, making tobacco use the largest public health epidemic in Sub-Saharan Africa. Data on tobacco imports from the database of the Office Togolaise des Recettes (OTR) show that in value terms, imported tobacco products have increased from 6941 million CFA francs or 1471.3 tons of cigarettes in 2010 to 8192 million CFA francs in 2013, equivalent to 2517.8 tons This situation suggests that the timid decline in smoking prevalence is coupled with either an increase in the quantity of tobacco consumed by tobacco users or an increase in the number of consumers, as the population grew between 2010 and 2013. In 2017 this prevalence estimated with the quantity of imported cigarettes (1333.2 tons) has experienced a slight decrease compared to 2010.

Objectives

Results

Conclusion