Increase In Crude Oil Prices Research Articles

Long-Term Outlook for World Energy Market, Primarily Crude Oil Market

Having come through the first and the second oil crises, the world oil market today has become fairly bearish. Most observers agree that the market will remain weak for some time.Regarding the long-term outlook for energy supply and demand for crude oil prices, on the other hand, there are two views prevailing in the market. One is the conventional view that foresees a rapid increase in crude oil prices again in the 1990s, while the other view -- frequently referred to as the “new conventional wisdom” -- foresees continued bearishness in crude oil prices on a long-term basis.The latter view has recently been winning fairly wide support in the industry. Especially among the major oil compnies, although the backgrounds for that view are not necessarily clear. In this report the world oil market is analyzed to find out where the difference between these two views arises. This is done by building up a medium-scale world energy supply and demand forecasting model.The analysis reveals that the new conventional wisdom presupposes considerable restructuring of the existing oil market mechanism, but that if such restructuring fails to take place crude oil prices are bound to continue rising in the future, reaching around $30/bbl by 2000. Furthermore, the free world’s reliance on the Middle East for oil supply is expected to rise in either case.

Lessons Learned In North Sea Oil Field Developments

Abstract Continued progress in matters of frontier resource development is dependent on avoidance of past errors. The development of oil and gas fields in the hostile North Sea environment represents a major pioneering effort which has witnessed the successful introduction of many new technologies. Evaluation of the success of North Sea ventures has, however, been confused by the impact of inflation and currency realignments.A recent analysis by Castle) of North Sea field Economic performance suggests that these fields would have been ‘underwater’ (due to technical under performance) if they had not been "bailed out" by the crude oil price increases, particularly of 1979. Examined are the technical factors responsible for Castle's observation for certain fields and it is concluded that greater care is needed in relating reservoir performance uncertainty to pre-development appraisal well data. Attempts are made to highlight some of the potential problem areas encountered when defining a development plan with the help of reservoir simulationmodels. Analyzed are published data for two typical North Sea fields: Thistle and Beatrice, which are amplified with observations from personal experience. Introduction Table 1 is partly extracted from a recent article by Castle(l) where an attempt was made to estimate how profitable 19 North Sea fields would have been if prices had remained flat from the time development was initiated. These "proforma" rate-of-return estimates, which ignore petroleum revenue tax as well as corporate taxes, and only deduct the 12 ? % royalty, indicated that only 14 fields in fact yielded a positive cash flow and of these only 7 yielded a rate of return in excess of 15%. At first glance Castle's analysis leads one to conclude that the performance of the oil industry in the North Sea was, in real terms, an economic disappointment. Table 1 has been enlarged with technical performance data extracted from the United Kingdom Brown Book(2). It is well known that the oil industry and various northwestern European National Treasuries have derived much benefit from the North Sea Oil Province. In terms of money of the day, the rates-of-return have been more than adequate to permit rapid payback of loans, a very large government "take", as well as to fund further developments. This is due, as Castle points out, to inflation and currency fluctuations ‘bailing out’ the North Sea projects most of which suffered from construction delays, cost overruns and production shortfalls. In this paper an attempt is made to identify the main technical reasons for under-performance of two of Castle's fields: Thistle and Beatrice (Fig. 1), These fields are rather well documented (see reference list) and thus provide much study material. This sample moreover includes a typical "Brent Province" Jurassic field representing one of the pioneering developments, as well as a later, non-Brent "marginal discovery" benefitting from five years of offshore technological progress. It is, therefore, a representative sample, and gives a fair insight into the technical risks inherent in offshore developments. Within the context of U.K offshore developments, both fields are successful.

Decomposing the determinants of trade deficits: Turkey in the 1970s

Persistent trade deficits in developing countries have followed the increases in crude oil prices of the 1970s. This paper examines through econometric estimation and shock decomposition analysis this persistence for the Turkish economy. Results highlight the primary role played in trade deficit creation by government tariff and exchange rate policies; also of interest is the measured responsiveness of the private economy to price incentives offered both by changing international conditions and government policy. The Turkish economy provides an empirical example of contractionary devaluation; the importance of devaluation cum liberalization for deficit reduction and economic growth is established.

Evaluating Energy Options for Israel: A Case Study

More than 98 percent of Israel's primary energy resources are imported, most of it as crude oil, the rest of it as coal, placing the country in a most vulnerable and awkward position. The sharp increases in crude oil prices in 1973 following the Yom Kippur War and in 1979 has increased the country's economic burden, contributing to its increasing deficit in the balance of payments and staggering inflation rate. Perhaps here more than anywhere else, a balanced energy policy is most crucial for security and well-being. Such policy would allow diversification of primary energy resources by using more alternative and renewable resources supplemented by a variety of ways of managing demand and controlling peak-load growth.

Technology of the Fischer-Tropsch Process

Abstract Sasol One, formerly known as South African Coal, Oil, and Gas Corp., operates a plant for the production of liquid fuels, pipeline gas, and chemical products from coal in Sasolburg in the province of the Orange Free State in South Africa. This plant started production in 1955 and today Sasol has 25 years' practical experience with the production of synthesis gas via Lurgi coal gasification and the synthesis of hydrocarbons by the Fischer-Tropsch process. In 1975 the decision was taken to build a much larger Fischer-Tropsch plant, mainly for the production of motor fuels, and this plant is at present being commissioned. The first final products from this plant will become available to the public early in the second half of 1980. The continuing increase in crude oil prices and instability on the oil supply market were the incentives for the decision in 1979 to build anther Sasol plant practically identical to Sasol Two. Construction on this Sasol Three plant is well under way and it is expected to ...

The Impact of Higher Energy Prices in Canada

Since the energy crisis of 1973-74, the Canadian government has followed a policy of shielding the household and business sectors from the full impact of world energy prices through a system of subsidies on oil imports financed by indirect taxes on exports and gasoline consumption. Western provinces have enjoyed a rapid accumulation of revenues related to royalites, investments and generally buoyant activity. Through the careful manipulation of the levers of an econometric model of Canada, a picture of the consequences of an increase of domestic energy prices to US levels can be traced through to such key measures as the Consumer Price Index, the Unemployment Rate, Real Gross National Product and Employment. In this paper annual increases in crude oil prices of $20.00 a barrel and equivalent increases in natural gas prices are imposed on a base case projection from 1981 to 1986, and the impacts on the Canadian economy are assessed.

An Indian Reaction to U.S. Nonproliferation Policy

Two events of global significance have molded U.S. nonproliferation policies. First, increase in crude oil prices made nuclear power economical; simultaneously, export of nuclear power plants and nuclear technology became commercially attractive. dispersal of nuclear power plants is perceived by United States as creating technological infrastructure for weapons option. Second, Indian nuclear test of May 18, 1974 heightened American anxieties that a proliferation chain-reaction would follow. Although initial official statements were muted, Henry Kissinger stated a year later: The Indian nuclear explosion of a year ago raises anew spectre of an era of plentiful nuclear weapons in which any local conflict risks exploding into a nuclear holocaust.1 Early U.S. policies in post-1974 period focused upon strengthening International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) safeguards system. U.S. Energy Research and Development Administration (ERDA) was directed to study alternative fuel cycles for satisfying energy needs without recourse to breeder technology or reactors recycling plutonium. Other strategems were also employed. President Nixon agreed in 1974 to supply nuclear reactors to Egypt and Israel. intention could have been initially to obtain ingress and, later, control over Egyptian and Israeli nuclear programs. In 1976, Pakistan was offered sale of 110 A-7 aircraft to dissuade her from buying a plutonium reprocessing plant from France. Pakistan's conventional capabilities were sought to be thereby enhanced sufficiently to wean her away from acquiring sensitive technology. President Carter assumed office with a strong personal commitment to nonproliferation. This is evident from his nuclear power policy statement on April 7, 1977 in which he perceived the risk that components of nuclear power process will be turned to providing atomic weapons. elements of an American nonproliferation strategy are embodied in U.S. Nuclear Non-Proliferation Act of 1978 (NNPA 1978). emphasis therein on denials of sensitive nuclear technologies and materials, and on constraints on nuclear exports through safeguards, is clear. No exports, for instance, of source material, special nuclear material, production or utilization facilities, and sensitive nuclear technologies would be made unless recipient non-nuclear weapon state accepts IAEA safe-

The influence of energy and other cost inflations on raw materials

There is still much uncertainty in Processing industries resulting from rapidly increasing costs of raw materials, energy and labour and from the general inflation in all European countries. Many companies have themselves carried out studies aimed at assessing the likely influence on their business resulting from the dramatic increase in crude oil prices in the recent past. However, other inflationary pressures are also at work — e.g. rapidly increasing costs of labour and capital — which will contribute at differing levels to the increasing costs and, therefore, prices of industrial raw materials such as chemicals, plastics and the other materials.

Poison Draw Field, Converse County, Wyoming: ABSTRACT

Oil and gas production in Poison Draw field, discovered in 1972, is from the lower sand bed of the Teckla sand member of the Lewis Shale (Late Cretaceous). Oil production has passed the one-million-bbl mark and is expected to exceed eight million bbl of primary production. The pool is contained in a stratigraphic trap formed in a delta-front environment where strong long-shore currents and wave action formed a northwest-southeast trending system of beaches and delta-front bars. The Poison Draw Teckla pool produces from an undersaturated, underpressured sandstone reservoir. Development drilling on the east updip margin and in the northern part of the field is still active. The recent increases in crude oil prices have greatly enhanced the economic potential of the field. One other Teckla sand pool already has been found and further exploration drilling may find additional Teckla sand pools in the southern Powder River basin. End_of_Article - Last_Page 907------------